Bitcoin (BTC) initially dropped before paring all losses, leaving market participants wondering what higher oil prices would mean for BTC price going forward.
Key takeaways:
Escalating Middle East conflict pushes oil to $79, putting Bitcoin at risk of a drop to $60,000 due to inflation shocks and delayed Fed rate cuts.
BTC drops against oil price spikes in the short term, but outperforms in the medium to long term.
Bitcoin faces short-term risks as oil prices surge
Data from TradingView showed oil rose to a 15-month high of $79.84 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday, amid news of Iranian drones hitting Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery.
Oil prices per barrel, $. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index were down around 1% on the day at the time of writing.
Polymarket bettors are pricing in about 56% odds of crude trading above $90 per barrel in March and a 44% chance of it crossing $100.
56% chance Crude Oil hits $90 in March. https://t.co/tSrdJI2gOt
Reacting, commentators predict Bitcoin’s short-term vulnerability if oil reaches $100, with inflation delaying rate cuts and triggering sell-offs below $60,000.
“Crude oil will go sharply higher, Gold sharply higher. Bitcoin and crypto will go lower,” crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano wrote in part of an initial response on X.
Pompliano outlined what he described as “critical variables” in the conflict, including the status of the Strait of Hormuz, and how markets might respond.
Related: ‘This is not World War III:’ Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
If Iran attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz, “every commodity in the world reprices violently upward” while Bitcoin drops sharply, he said, adding:
“This is the single most important variable.”
“If Iran moves to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil could rip past $100-$108. That’s not just an oil story — it’s an inflation shock,” crypto analyst BBX said in a recent post on X, adding:
However, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, argued that based on historical patterns, American intervention in the Middle East ultimately leads to Fed rate cuts or printing money to finance the war effort, a move he believes will drive Bitcoin prices higher.
“The longer Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of Iranian nation-building, the higher the likelihood the Fed lowers the price and increases the quantity of money to support Pax Americana’s latest bout of Middle Eastern adventurism,” he said in his latest essay.
Bullish for BTC? Oil price gains may be short-lived
Bitcoin and oil prices have exhibited a predominantly inverse relationship in the past, with the latter rising sharply immediately after conflicts emerge due to increased energy costs for BTC mining and broader market uncertainty.
However, spikes in oil prices tend to be short-lived, with Bitcoin outperforming over the longer term.
For instance, during the 2022 Ukraine crisis, crude oil spiked 50% while Bitcoin price dipped 18%. BTC went on to recover, however, rising 40% over the two weeks that followed.
A similar scenario played out after the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and Israel’s attack on Iran in 2025, as shown in the chart below.
Oil price, USD vs. BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The current situation may be following a similar early-stage pattern.
Oil surged as much as 15% to $79 from a low of $69 on Thursday as traders reacted to rising tensions in the Middle East and the potential risk to key transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
From a technical perspective, oil is seeking to break above its multi-year downtrend, an occurrence that has previously preceded 100%-200% Bitcoin price rallies, said analyst Max Crypto.
Source: X/Max Crypto
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This content is provided by a sponsor. Victoria, Seychelles, March 2, 2026 — Bitget, the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), is glad to celebrate International Women’s Day under its flagship Blockchain4Her initiative, aligned with its beliefs of inclusion and gender diversity as critical drivers of long-term growth in the blockchain industry. Anchored around the question […]
Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest publicly traded corporate holder of bitcoin, expanded its position last week by acquiring 3,015 BTC for approximately $204.1 million, or an average price of $67,700 each.
Bitcoin is trading at $66,000 on Monday morning, with MSTR shares flat in early action.
To fund the buys, Strategy raised roughly $229.9 million through common stock sales, along with $7.1 million in net proceeds of its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, STRC, according to a Monday filing.
Following the latest purchase, the company now holds 720,737 BTC acquired for roughly $54.77 billion, or an average price of approximately $75,985 per coin.
Bitcoin was trading at $66,372 on March 2, 2026, with a market capitalization of $1.32 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of around $45.14 billion. The session’s intraday range spanned $65,149 to $67,191, pointing to continued consolidation beneath major resistance near $70,000. Bitcoin Chart Outlook On the daily chart, bitcoin remains in a corrective structure […]
WHY THIS MATTERS: Operational resilience and third-party risk have moved to the top of regulatory agendas globally, particularly as financial institutions deepen their reliance on cloud providers, SaaS platforms, and AI-driven systems. Regulators increasingly expect firms to evidence continuity planning, supplier oversight, and stressed exit strategies — not just document them. Wayne Scott’s appointment to CeFPro’s Advisory Board reflects the growing importance of practical governance, risk and compliance (GRC) expertise in shaping industry thinking.
With over two decades of experience spanning technology risk and software escrow, Scott’s focus aligns with a broader regulatory shift: resilience is no longer about internal controls alone, but about managing complex digital ecosystems and third-party dependencies. As AI becomes embedded in core banking and risk systems, scrutiny around oversight and accountability will only intensify.
CeFPro has appointed Escode’s Wayne Scott to its Advisory Board, as regulators step up scrutiny of operational resilience and third party risk across financial services.
Wayne, who is GRC Solutions Lead at Escode brings more than 20 years’ experience to CeFPro, a global research and advisory organisation serving financial institutions and industry leaders. The CeFPro Advisory Board is dedicated to the advancement of the industry through regular meetings, international surveys and reports, webinars, events, and written content. The Board is international in nature and consists of a diverse range of industry professionals.
Through his appointment, Wayne will help shape the organisation’s thinking on emerging regulatory developments, with a particular focus on technology risk, supplier resilience and third-party dependencies.
Speaking on his appointment, Wayne said:“Being invited to join the CeFPro Advisory Board reflects a growing recognition that operational resilience, software escrow and verification are no longer optional safeguards, but essential components of financial stability.”
“As regulation evolves and AI becomes more deeply embedded in financial services, firms need practical, proven approaches for managing technology and third-party risk. I’m looking forward to contributing to that conversation and helping shape solutions that work.”
Effective from January, the appointment places Wayne among a select group of senior leaders advising on the future direction of financial services. His focus on the Board will centre on operational resilience and third-party risk, as firms face heightened expectations to evidence continuity, stressed exit planning and supplier oversight.
Andreas Simou, Managing Director at CeFPro, added: “I have had the pleasure of working with Wayne for a number of years and his deep expertise at the intersection of regulation, technology and operational resilience, and his experience advising organisations on third-party risk and compliance will be invaluable. We’re delighted to welcome him to the Advisory Board.”
FF NEWS TAKE: This appointment signals where regulatory attention is heading — toward systemic technology risk and supplier concentration. Financial stability now depends as much on vendor resilience as on capital adequacy.
Advisory bodies like CeFPro play a quiet but influential role in shaping best practice. As operational resilience frameworks mature, voices grounded in implementation — not just policy — will increasingly shape how firms respond to tightening oversight.
Traders rush to place bets on oil and gold after Iran retaliates by seizing US assets in the Gulf region.
Hyperliquid captures significant trading volume.
Bitcoin still hovers just above $65,000 while gold is climbing back to its record high.
Hyperliquid captured the macro trade this weekend.
Perpetual futures tied to oil on the decentralised exchange jumped nearly 20% after US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Saturday killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
USOIL, a token tied to crude oil, surged to as high as $97 on Sunday while OIL advanced to $76, with the two derivatives contracts paired with Hyperliquid’s native USDH stablecoin generating nearly $17 million in trading volume.
Iran’s retaliation against its Gulf neighbours revived concerns about supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime chokepoint through which more than $500 billion worth of oil and gas flows annually.
Gold climbed back over $5,400 per ounce with Hyperliquid recording $148 million in trading volume. Tether Gold and Paxos Gold also jumped as investors sought safety.
Hyperliquid’s HYPE token also surged over 20% to $32 on Monday.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price is hovering just above $65,000, down more than 20% over the past month. It is still down nearly 50% from its October peak of $126,000.
“This is the power of tokenised assets and perpetuals built on crypto infrastructure,” Kenny Chan, Coinbase’s head of Stablecoin Ecosystem, said.
Paradigm shift
The contrast marks a major shift in how geopolitical events are traded.
“For years, whenever a major geo event hit over the weekend, Bitcoin was the only choice available to traders,” Chan said.
Bitcoin had long been the asset of choice thanks to its ability to be traded at all hours and infrequent correlation to risk-off assets, Chan said
“This weekend was different,” he added.
“Traders didn’t need to route through Bitcoin anymore. They went straight to the source on Hyperliquid: perpetual futures tied to oil, gold, and silver — the assets that you actually want to take a view on.”
Bitcoin forgotten?
Bitcoin has long been marketed as digital gold, or a hedge against currency debasement and systemic risk. At times, it has even shown fleeting correlation with bullion, reinforcing the narrative that it could serve as a refuge during macro stress.
That thesis is now under strain.
Since a severe crypto liquidation event in October triggered the largest market unwind in the asset class’s history, Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum despite other asset classes, like stocks, pushing new highs.
Gold, by contrast, has extended its rally into 2026, reaching fresh peaks amid geopolitical uncertainty, driving demand for traditional havens.
“Nothing upends the economic game board like a sudden war few had in their bingo cards a week ago,” Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said.
Crypto market movers
Bitcoin is down 0.2% over the past 24 hours, trading at $66,476.
Ethereum is down 1.6% past 24 hours at $1,961.
What we’re reading
Lance Datskoluo is DL News’ Europe-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email him at lance@dlnews.com.
Bitcoin BTC$66,379.65 is trading near $66,500 after adding 1.1% since midnight UTC and more than 5% from the weekend low of $63,000.
The crypto market is back in the middle of a trading range that has persisted since the start of February, with a volatile past week testing $70,000 to the upside and $62,500 to the downside.
Weekend price action was driven by the military strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, triggering retaliatory attacks and raising concerns about potential disruption to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to trading firm QCP, the strike sparked roughly $300 million in long liquidations — but the scale of forced selling was relatively contained, suggesting markets were already positioned for a volatile weekend.
The escalation pushed investors toward traditional havens, sending gold and silver to their highest levels in more than a month. Oil surged 13% to $82 a barrel, the highest price since July 2024.
U.S. equity index futures fell, with the S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 down 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively, since midnight UTC.
The crypto market showed resilience, with most of the losses occurring on Saturday when U.S. markets were closed.
Derivatives positioning
The fallout from the Iran war has been more contained than might have been expected. While cumulative crypto futures open interest has dropped 2% to $93.78 billion, it remains above the recent low of $92.40 billion.
Over $300 million in leveraged bets have been liquidated by centralized exchanges in 24 hours, with bullish bets accounting for most of the tally.
Annualized perpetual funding rates for major cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin and ether, are little changed to negative, indicating a slightly bearish bias.
Still, the market isn’t showing signs of panic, as evidenced from the bitcoin 30-day annualized implied volatility index, BVIV. It remains steady at around 58.8%, well within the price range seen last week. The same is true for the ether volatility index.
On Deribit, short-term bitcoin puts traded at an 8%-10% volatility premium to calls, a sign of heightened downside worries. The $60,000 put, or bearish bet, remains the most popular on the exchange.
Block flows featured demand for bitcoin put spreads.
Token talk
The altcoin market largely tracked bitcoin over the weekend, but one of the fastest to recover was lending token MORPHO, which continued its impressive two-week streak with a 5% jump over the past 24 hours having risen by 2.6% since midnight UTC.
Decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens JUP, AAVE and LDO are all in the black as speculative appetite remains relatively strong despite a global shift to haven investments.
Hyperliquid’s HYPE token surged by more than 29% on Saturday to snap February’s downtrend. While it lost 3.8% on Monday, losing 3.8% it remains above the crucial $30 level of support.
WLFI$0.1051, the DeFi token linked to U.S. President Donald Trump’s family, exentended declines, falling 2.5% of its value since midnight. It is now down by more than 44% since mid-January following a series of lower highs and lower lows.
CoinDesk’s DeFi Select (DFX) Index is the only benchmark that is positive over the past 24 hours. The worst performing was the CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) and the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index (SCPXC), down by 1.87% and 1.71%, respectively.
WHY THIS MATTERS: South Africa’s energy transition increasingly depends on distributed commercial and industrial (C&I) solar and battery infrastructure. Vantage Capital’s R635 million mezzanine investment into Commercial Energy South Africa (CESA) enables SolarAfrica to take full ownership of a ~90MW contracted portfolio spanning 134 sites — assets that generate predictable, long-term cash flows. In a power market still grappling with reliability challenges, privately financed C&I infrastructure is becoming a core pillar of energy security.
The structure also highlights the growing role of mezzanine finance in renewable energy. As capital stacks in infrastructure projects become more complex, flexible debt solutions allow sponsors to restructure ownership, scale portfolios and accelerate deployment without relying solely on equity or senior debt. With SolarAfrica already delivering 343MW and over 1GW in rollout, control of CESA strengthens its platform for further expansion and innovation, including energy trading and wheeling.
Vantage Capital (www.VantageCapital.co.za), Africa’s largest mezzanine debt fund manager, announced that it has made a R635m investment into Commercial Energy South Africa (“CESA”), a subsidiary of SolarAfrica Energy (“SolarAfrica”), a leading South African energy solutions provider, alongside co-investor, Greenpoint Capital. CESA holds commercial & industrial (“C&I”) solar and battery energy assets developed by SolarAfrica.
The investment comprises a mezzanine facility which was used to exit Inspired Evolution from CESA, making SolarAfrica the 100% owner of CESA.
Founded in 2011 and headquartered in Pretoria, South Africa, SolarAfrica provides solar-PV, battery storage, energy trading, electricity wheeling and gas-to-power services tailored for C&I clients, helping businesses lower electricity costs, secure reliable power and reduce carbon emissions. SolarAfrica has a strong track record, having delivered ~343MW of funded solar projects in Southern Africa (with a further 1.14GW plus being rolled out). SolarAfrica has been twice recognised as the African Solar Company of the Year (2021 and 2023) by the Africa Solar Industry Association (AFSIA).
CESA acts as a holding company for C&I rooftop solar and battery storage solutions assets that have been developed by SolarAfrica. CESA currently holds a portfolio of assets with energy capacity of ~90MW across 134 different sites. All assets within CESA are managed by SolarAfrica.
Roshal Ramdenee, Partner at Vantage Capital, said “This transaction reflects our conviction in distributed energy infrastructure and the strength of SolarAfrica’s platform. CESA’s contracted C&I solar and battery portfolio provides predictable cash flows and supports South Africa’s shift to reliable and sustainable power. We look forward to working closely with SolarAfrica and Greenpoint as the platform continues to scale.”
Warren van der Merwe, Managing Partner at Vantage Capital, added “Vantage has provided senior debt to a number of renewable energy projects through its GreenX senior debt division. We are pleased to showcase in this deal how mezzanine finance can play a part in the rapidly evolving power sector. Congratulations to Charl and his team for driving a super-efficient process, which allowed us to close this deal under very tight timelines.”
Nic van Zyl, CIO at Greenpoint Capital, added “We are pleased to have finalised this transaction in support of the SolarAfrica team, whose progress we have tracked over many years. We look forward to collaborating with Vantage Capital on this high-quality solar asset.”
Charl Alheit, CIO at SolarAfrica, added “Vantage Capital and Greenpoint Capital have proven to be very innovative and efficient partners in enabling us to execute the buy-out of this portfolio from Inspired Evolution. Taking full control of the portfolio means we can continue to innovate by bringing more renewable energy solutions, such as electricity wheeling, to customers. This underscores our commitment to making cheaper, greener power more accessible to C&I businesses as part of their green energy journey.”
Step Advisory acted as deal advisor to SolarAfrica on the transaction, Werksmans acted as legal counsel for Vantage. Other advisors to the transaction included Cresco, Ernst and Young, Webber Wentzel and SLR Consulting.
FF NEWS TAKE: This transaction is as much about financial engineering as it is about clean energy. Mezzanine capital is quietly playing a catalytic role in Africa’s power sector — bridging funding gaps and enabling consolidation of operating assets.
By securing full ownership, SolarAfrica gains strategic flexibility at a time when demand for reliable, greener power from C&I customers is accelerating. If execution continues at pace, distributed energy platforms like CESA could become some of the most resilient infrastructure assets in the region.
Now, traders see events continuing to favor crypto market stability.
“If it’s a bloodbath (unlikely imo), then I’ll long Bitcoin around $61k-$60k ahead of de-escalation talk news,” trader CrypNuevo wrote in a thread on X.
CrypNuevo suggested that de-escalation would form a pivotal trigger for the markets in the coming days and argued that anything else would be counterproductive for the US government.
“The truth is that this war is not convenient for Donald Trump in a midterm election year, here’s why: A long conflict would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for a long time leading oil prices to increase, and consequently, US CPI inflation would spike. And that won’t happen,” he wrote.
Trader Crypto Tony, meanwhile, eyed $62,000 as a potential BTC long entry.
Others warned of repeat bearish price action with the formation of triangle structures as part of an ongoing downtrend.
“$BTC has been following the same pattern again and again,” trader BitBull summarized.
“I think there’ll be a pump above $74K to trap late buyers before the next big dump.”
BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: BitBull/X
$45,000 joins bearish BTC price targets
Bearish BTC price predictions remain firmly in force across longer time frames.
A lack of momentum among bulls, who have been unable to recapture even nearby support levels, is leading to increasingly bleak market forecasts for 2026.
One trend line now back in focus for independent analyst Filbfilb is calling for a further 50% BTC price dive.
“In every instance since inception, a weekly close below the yellow band has resulted in a c.40-50% correction,” Filbfilb told X followers alongside a chart showing historical price performance.
“Levels c. $40-45k for the bands at the moment. A bounce off around $50k is not impossible, but ultimately, the price has met the lower band.”
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Filbfilb/X
In subsequent discussions, a rescue level emerged for the weekly close, with this still out of reach on Monday at $72,000.
The $45,000 zone, Cointelegraph reported, is already a popular target for a long-term BTC price floor.
In a post on his Telegram trading channel, Filbfilb added that open interest trends are also mimicking Bitcoin’s last bear market. Open interest is rising while price itself is falling, indicating increasing short activity.
BTC/USD order-book data. Source: Filbfilb
Analysis on Iran: “This is NOT World War Three”
With little US inflation data due this week, attention will stay focused on the Middle East and broader geopolitical instability.
Iran events sparked 7% WTI crude oil price rises on Monday, while Asian stock markets traded lower as tensions appeared worldwide.
CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Volatility was palpable as markets sought to digest the implications of a military campaign against Iran that US President Donald Trump said could last up to a month.
“Combat operations continue at this time in full force and they will continue until all our objectives are achieved. We have very strong objectives,” Trump said in a televised address on Sunday.
Crypto markets reined in volatility throughout the weekend, and as TradFi markets returned, Bitcoin preserved $65,000 as support.
“Approximately $300m in long liquidations were triggered as the news broke, a notable but contained figure, particularly relative to the more disorderly deleveraging events observed in early February,” trading company QCP Capital wrote in its latest “Asia Color” market update.
“The comparatively modest scale of forced selling suggests that positioning had already been materially lightened in recent weeks.”
QCP noted that the previous Iran upheaval in June 2025 resulted in only brief BTC price divergences before the then-active uptrend continued.
“While the scale of this attack is far greater than last year’s, price action could be hinting at early signs of history repeating itself,” it added.
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter had similar conclusions about markets’ reactions overall. Oil prices, it argued, were not indicative of panic.
“This is NOT World War 3. Ignore the noise,” it told X followers.
US inflation in focus with oil volatility
As Cointelegraph reported earlier, however, concerns have surfaced over the Iran conflict’s longer-term impact on US inflation.
Thanks to risks to oil trade routes, notably the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings in particular are now under the microscope. February CPI is due for release on March 11, with over a month remaining until the weekend’s events begin to show up in the numbers.
“A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz would send oil prices above $100 per barrel, according [to] our analysis, which would imply a spike in US CPI inflation to ~5%,” Kobeissi wrote in an X post on the topic.
US CPI 12-month % change. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Recent US inflation prints have overshot expectations, some by a considerable margin, leaving markets sensitive to any surprise catalysts.
“A jump in oil prices could have major implications on the outlook for inflation,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company stressed in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
“Changes in energy prices can drive fluctuations in headline inflation, with a study by the Federal Reserve estimating that every $10 increase in the price of oil adds 0.20% headline inflation.”
Brent crude oil vs. headline CPI. Source: Mosaic Asset Company
Mosaic likened the current situation to the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, warning that geopolitics was not the only oil-price tailwind at work.
“Energy prices were a major contributor to an inflation wave that peaked in 2022 at the highest level in over 40 years,” it continued.
“While the conflict in the Middle East will be a major catalyst for movement in energy prices, a prolonged period of underinvestment in various energy and industrial commodities was already setting the stage for a rally.”
Kobeissi nonetheless argued that Trump’s own policy to “eliminate inflation” and cut gas prices would see an effort to keep any knock-on effects under control.
“A prolonged war with Iran would work in the opposite direction of these key initiatives, particularly in the short-term during a crucial midterm election year. We think Trump aims for a short and swift operation and markets prevail once again as the dust settles,” it concluded.
Fed target rate probabilities for March FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
Higher inflation reduces the odds of interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and, in turn, cuts the prospect of liquidity inflows to crypto and risk assets. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a mere 4.4% chance of a cut at the Fed’s March meeting.
Bitcoin ETF flows flip bullish
Amid lackluster BTC price action and acceptance of a new bear market beginning, institutional inflows are causing a stir for onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
Last week, the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw three consecutive days of net inflows totaling more than $1 billion. Friday saw only a modest net outflow of $27.5 million, per data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors.
“Lately, the crypto markets have been showing some very specific on-chain signals that suggest a major shift in how Bitcoin is moving between different types of investors,” CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha commented in a “Quicktake” blog post on Monday.
Taha said that the latest uptick in inflows represented the first “meaningful” accumulation since last October, around the time of Bitcoin’s $126,200 all-time high.
“This marks the first noticeable accumulation wave after months of stagnation or decline,” he added.
“Historically, rising ETF demand tends to be constructive for price, while declining demand often aligns with price weakness.”
Bitcoin ETF flows and liquidity impulse (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on expectations that institutional Bitcoin investor resolve would only strengthen in time, with a new influx of buyers less interested in selling on short-term price moves.
“Every cycle, the weak hands get filtered out. And every cycle, what replaces them is longer-duration capital,” EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson explained.
“2017: retail sold at $20K. 2021: funds sold at $69K. 2025: ETF allocators are selling at $63K.”
US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors
Jackson called the recent exodus of ETF buyers the “purification” of the long-term Bitcoin bull case.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
History proves US-Israeli war on Iran is good for Bitcoin’s price, Hayes argues.
His calls are increasingly contrarian to market consensus.
Arthur Hayes says the US-Israel war on Iran will send Bitcoin’s price soaring.
The Maelstrom chief investment officer argues that every major US military adventure in the Middle East ends the same way — with the Federal Reserve printing more money — thus boosting the prices of assets like Bitcoin.
“The time to back up the truck and buy Bitcoin and high-quality [altcoins] like HYPE is immediately after the Fed cuts rates and or prints money to support the government’s goals in Iran,” he wrote.
Hayes cited decades of data showing that US military campaigns, ballooning federal outlays, and subsequent Fed interest rate cuts have been catalysts for Bitcoin’s price.
“The longer [Donald] Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of Iranian nation-building, the higher the likelihood the Fed lowers the price and increases the quantity of money,” Hayes said.
In other words, to support the government’s war effort, policymakers will cut rates and expand the money supply, he argues.
Hayes bullish call comes as Bitcoin’s price is stalling near $66,000, or almost 50% below its October peak of $126,000. That’s despite gold and oil surging after the US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Saturday killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and unleashed market uncertainty.
In December, he predicted that Bitcoin’s price would reach $200,000 by March.
Hayes’s calls are increasingly at odds with market consensus.
For example, he predicts that a massive disruption to the economy by artificial intelligence will be beneficial to Bitcoin’s price, rather than drag the top crypto down.
Hayes’ history lesson
Hayes backs his claim with statements from the Federal Open Market Committee during past conflicts.
During the 1990 Gulf War, policymakers warned that “heightened uncertainties” stemming from events in the Middle East had “greatly complicated the formulation of an effective monetary policy,” he said.
By November and December that year, the Fed had cut rates, citing weakening market confidence and economic strain.
In 2001, after the September 11 terror attacks, Fed chair Alan Greenspan moved swiftly.
“The events of last week… have created a heightened degree of fear and uncertainty,” Greenspan said at an emergency meeting, proposing a 50-basis-point cut. The Fed obliged, and markets stabilised.
Hayes now argues that Trump’s latest military foray fits squarely into that lineage.
Military engagements cost “hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars,” he wrote.
“The cure, as always, is cheaper and more plentiful money.”
Lance Datskoluo is DL News’ Europe-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email him at lance@dlnews.com.
