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Bitcoin NUPL Bottom Not Yet in Sight With BTC Due New Lows

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Bitcoin NUPL Bottom Not Yet in Sight With BTC Due New Lows

Bitcoin (BTC) has further to fall for one of its “cleanest cycle clocks” to signal a bear-market bottom, new analysis says.

Key points:

  • One of Bitcoin’s “cleanest cycle clocks” suggests that new macro lows are needed this bear market.
  • The NUPL metric is still in positive territory, setting it apart from previous bear markets.
  • Analysis expects history to repeat with a higher low on a long-term NUPL moving average.

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin NUPL contains “level to watch”

In research published on Monday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant flagged an incoming profitability floor for the BTC supply.

The onchain metric involved was Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which measures the portion of the supply being held at a higher or lower price versus that at which it last moved. Its score is currently 0.158, a level last seen in early 2023.

“Smoothed into its 30 and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), it becomes one of the cleanest cycle clocks on-chain,” contributor TheChessOnChain commented.

An accompanying chart shows the 100-day EMA of NUPL slowly trending toward cycle bottom levels below zero.

“Every time the 100-day EMA of NUPL fell below zero, Bitcoin was carving its cycle bottom: late 2011 (low near $2), January 2015 ($182), the 2018 bear ($3,206 in December 2018), and the 2022 FTX bottom ($15,792 in November 2022),” TheChessOnChain noted.

Bitcoin NUPL data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

At just above $60,000, BTC/USD corresponds to an NUPL 100-day EMA of 0.215, signalling plenty of room left to drop in order to match previous bear-market lows.

CryptoQuant acknowledged that NUPL has put in higher lows throughout Bitcoin’s history, meaning that even a trip below the zero line may not be essential.

“That leaves two paths,” it continued, describing the four extant zero-line crosses as a “pattern, not a law.” 

“Either the 100-day EMA crosses zero as it did at every prior bottom, or this becomes the first cycle to bottom without it, which would fit the shallower-each-time trend.”

No time frame was given for when the next bottom could occur, with CryptoQuant specifying the zero line as the “level to watch in the coming weeks.”

Bear market reversal signals copy history

As Cointelegraph reported, multiple bear-market reversal signals have come from onchain sources in recent weeks, echoing 2022.

Related: $60.4K Becomes ‘most important area’: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Despite these now locking in, market participants broadly expect new macro lows to enter before bulls regain the upper hand.

Last week, fellow CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. highlighted other supply data presenting mixed signals over short and mid-term BTC price action. Supply in loss, Adler calculated, could still be two months off levels that traditionally correspond to the end of Bitcoin bear markets.

“Until then, it is more accurate to treat capitulation as a process rather than a completed fact,” he wrote.

Crypto exchange Kraken is trying to become a bank in Europe

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Crypto exchange Kraken is trying to become a bank in Europe

Kraken, the cryptocurrency exchange planning to go public in the U.S., is pursuing a full banking license in Europe, with a focus on Lithuania as the jurisdiction to secure it, according to a person familiar with the plans.

If the firm gets the license, Kraken would be the only crypto exchange to have such a designation. It will also tread the same regulatory path as fintech major Revolut, which holds a specialized European banking license issued in 2018 and regulated by the Bank of Lithuania. This allowed Revolut to offer full current accounts, consumer lending, and stock trading across the European Economic Area (EEA).

Kraken declined to comment on the plans. A spokesman for the Bank of Lithuania said the licensing process of financial market participants is confidential.

Other fintech firms holding a banking or specialized bank license in Lithuania include Mano Bank, PayRay, European Merchant Bank (EMBank), AB Fjord Bank, and Saldo Bank.

The move to gain full banking status in Europe is part of a broader effort by Payward, Kraken’s parent company, to obtain additional licenses globally.

Vanguard opens search for digital assets leader in sign of evolving crypto strategy

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Vanguard opens search for digital assets leader in sign of evolving crypto strategy

Vanguard has opened the search for a head of digital assets, creating a senior role that would oversee the firm’s strategy for cryptocurrencies and blockchain-based financial technology.

The position, listed within Vanguard Personal Wealth, calls for an executive to develop the firm’s digital asset vision, identify business opportunities and lead execution across product, technology, operations, legal and compliance teams. The candidate will also advise senior leadership on changes in digital asset markets, represent Vanguard in discussions with regulators and industry groups and help shape the firm’s long-term approach.

It also highlights other areas of the ecosystem, including tokenization, stablecoins, digital wallets, custody, blockchain-enabled settlement and operating models as areas the executive will evaluate, as well as determining whether Vanguard should build new capabilities internally, partner with third parties or delay entering certain parts of the market.

The search marks another step in Vanguard’s gradual shift toward digital assets after years of resisting the sector. The asset manager, which oversees roughly $10 trillion, remained one of crypto’s largest institutional skeptics while peers such as BlackRock, Fidelity and Franklin Templeton rolled out spot bitcoin ETFs and other blockchain initiatives.

Analysts see more upside for SpaceX as post-IPO research begins

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Analysts see more upside for SpaceX as post-IPO research begins

Wall Street analysts have begun coverage of SpaceX (SPCX) following the expiration of the 25-day quiet period after the company’s June initial public offering (IPO), with nearly every major brokerage launching their coverage with a bullish rating.

The aerospace and satellite company, which held 18,712 bitcoin BTC$63,953.04 as of March 31, went public in June, raising $75 billion in one of the year’s largest IPOs. Shares were priced at $135 in the offering. The stock was trading at $150.93 on Tuesday, down more than 6% from recent post-listing highs but still above its IPO price.

The two lead underwriters, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, both initiated coverage with buy-equivalent ratings. Goldman analyst Eric Sheridan set a price target of $205, while Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas assigned a $300 target.

They were joined by analysts at Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Macquarie, RBC Capital Markets, UBS and Wells Fargo, all of which launched coverage with buy or equivalent recommendations.

The most optimistic forecast came from Raymond James, where analyst Brian Gesuale initiated coverage with a Strong Buy rating and an $800 price target.

SpaceX IPO powers record $3.86 billion in tokenized equities trading in June

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SpaceX IPO powers record $3.86 billion in tokenized equities trading in June

Tokenized equities posted record trading activity in June as investors piled into blockchain-based versions of SpaceX (SPCX) stock following the aerospace company’s blockbuster initial public offering.

On-chain trading volume climbed 145% from May to $3.86 billion, according to CoinDesk Data’s latest Stablecoins & Tokenized Assets report. Tokenized SpaceX shares accounted for $1.19 billion of the total, or about 31% of all tokenized equity trading during the month.

The surge followed SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO, the largest on record, which valued the company at roughly $1.8 trillion on a fully diluted basis.

Backpack Securities’ SPCX token was the most popular tokenized version of the stock, with $1.08 billion in onchain trading volume, followed by xStocks’ SPCXx, which reached $852 million.

The figures point to a change in what is driving demand for tokenized equities. Established names like Nvidia, Tesla, SPY and QQQ remained actively traded, but none matched the interest in SpaceX. For context, Backpack’s tokenized instruments traded $1.42 billion for the month, the lion’s share of which was in SPCX tokens.

The sector reached a record $1.53 billion in market capitalization during June, up 6.64% from the previous month and marking its fifteenth straight month of growth, the report adds.

Tether Invests $20 Million In Brazil’s Mercado Bitcoin

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Tether Invests $20 Million In Brazil’s Mercado Bitcoin

Tether said Tuesday it will invest $20 million in a strategic growth financing round for Mercado Bitcoin, a move that deepens the stablecoin issuer’s push into Latin America’s fast-growing market for blockchain-based financial services.

Tether, the largest company in the digital asset industry and the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, framed the deal as part of a broader strategy of backing platforms that pair regulatory licensing with market scale. 

Mercado Bitcoin, founded in São Paulo in 2013, has grown from a cryptocurrency exchange into what it describes as a full-stack on-chain financial services platform.

The company now serves 4.5 million users and says it has issued more than 2 billion reais in tokenized assets. It holds more than 10 licenses across Brazil and Europe, including a payment institution license from Brazil’s central bank, along with broker-dealer, securitization and asset management capabilities. 

Its business spans trading, tokenized investment products, credit and lending, stablecoin-based payments, and cross-border services.

“Mercado Bitcoin has built exactly that, a regulated, full-stack on-chain financial platform serving millions of users across one of the world’s most dynamic financial markets,” Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said in a statement. He said the company’s mix of licensing, tokenization infrastructure and integrated services is unmatched in the region.

Roberto Dagnoni, chairman and chief executive of Mercado Bitcoin, said the shift of finance onto blockchain rails is underway and that the focus has turned to building infrastructure for tokenization, stablecoins, payments and capital markets at scale. He said the investment strengthens the company’s ability to expand its on-chain services in Brazil and abroad.

Mercado Bitcoin’s expanded infrastructure

Mercado Bitcoin said it will use the capital to expand its payments infrastructure, scale tokenized investment offerings for retail and institutional investors, grow its lending and credit business, advance on-chain capital markets, and continue international expansion.

The investment lands as banks and consumers move toward programmable, blockchain-based systems for moving and accessing money. 

Tether pointed to Brazil as a leader in that transition, citing the country’s large financial market, high digital adoption and developing regulatory framework. Brazil has drawn attention from crypto and payments firms in part because of Pix, the central bank’s instant-payment system, which has reshaped how money moves in the country.

The deal continues an active stretch of dealmaking for Tether, whose reserves back one of the world’s most widely used stablecoins. In June, the company said it would lead a Series C round of up to $1.4 billion for the German firm NEURA Robotics, one of the largest private raises on record in humanoid robotics.

It also signed a memorandum of understanding with the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre to explore work on tokenization and blockchain education. The same month, Tether said it would wind down Alloy by Tether and its aUSDT token after reviewing user activity and market demand.

Neither company disclosed the size of the full financing round or the valuation attached to the investment. Tether described its role as that of a strategic partner and investor in Mercado Bitcoin’s next phase of growth.

The transaction reflects a wider bet across the industry that tokenization and stablecoins will move into mainstream finance, and that regulated platforms in high-growth markets are positioned to capture that demand. 

For Tether, backing Mercado Bitcoin extends its reach beyond issuing USDT and into the infrastructure that companies and consumers use to hold, invest and transfer digital value.

U.S. SEC to propose crypto rule as soon as this month to ease startups, fundraising

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U.S. SEC to propose crypto rule as soon as this month to ease startups, fundraising

“To deliver on President Trump’s goal to ensure that the United States is the crypto capital of the world, we are embracing innovation to bring more products onshore, creating clear rules of the road for capital raising with crypto assets, and providing clarity as to how market participants can custody and facilitate trading of tokenized securities onchain,” Atkins said in a statement on Tuesday, mentioning his agency’s crypto agenda before any other specific rulemaking effort.

As the process to advance a crypto market structure bill has languished in Congress, the SEC has been a bright spot for the industry’s regulatory hopes, though the agency has sometimes moved more slowly to issue policies than expected. When Atkins addressed this coming regulation almost four months ago in mid-March, he said it would be proposed in the “coming weeks.”

The busy new SEC agenda has “Regulation Crypto” slated for July, though it’s still under review at the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. When proposed, it would mark the first major crypto-specific rulemaking pursued under Atkins’ leadership. Though the regulator has established a wide range of staff statements and guidance on crypto, those positions don’t carry the weight of a full rule, which can’t be changed as easily when future leaders arrive at the agency with different ideas.

Bitcoin Sticks to $63,000 as John Bollinger Eyes a ‘Critical Point’ for BTC price

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Bitcoin Sticks to $63,000 as John Bollinger Eyes a ‘Critical Point’ for BTC price

Bitcoin (BTC) circled $63,000 after Tuesday’s Wall Street open as chip companies led a dip in US stocks.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin attempts to hold $63,000 after seeing its highest levels in two weeks.
  • US stock markets see a correction on the day SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100.
  • Bollinger Bands creator John Bollinger continues to eye a long-term BTC price reversal.

BTC price comes off two-week highs as US stocks fall

Data from TradingView showed BTC price action cooling after a trip to $64,660 — its highest point since June 22.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC/USD surfed a comedown in US equities, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down 0.6% and 2.1%, respectively, at the time of writing. Chip stocks led the sell-off, with Micron Technologies, whose earnings were highly anticipated last month, down over 9%.

Micron Technologies stock one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

At the same time, Tuesday was due to see SpaceX added to the Nasdaq 100 after its own stock turbulence in late June.

“This marks the fastest inclusion into the Nasdaq 100 in the index’s history,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in its latest commentary on X.

US spot Bitcoin ETF net flows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

Fresh from a second day of net inflows to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), BTC/USD managed to avoid a major comedown.

“Correlation to the Nasdaq just flipped to +0.72 from -0.87 in the matter of days last week,” trader Daan Crypto Trades reported on X. 

“That’s the difference between trading like a complete hedge/inverse and trading like a high beta tech stock. Right now we’re back to the middle on the 4H timeframe.”

BTC/USDT futures (Binance) four-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Commentator Exitpump was conservative on low time frames, expecting a “rounding topping structure” and further downside next.

“The next correction on S&P should mark the true $BTC bottom according to history,” trader Killa suggested. 

“Lets see if we repeat, 2015, 2018 & 2022.”

S&P 500 chart data. Source: Killa/X

Bollinger: “We are at a critical point”

In recent X discussions, meanwhile, John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, had some more positive news for Bitcoin bulls.

Related: Bitcoin can fall below $58K if one of its ‘cleanest’ metrics copies history: Analysis

As Cointelegraph reported, Bollinger was eyeing a “W”-shaped reversal pattern currently in the process of confirmation on daily time frames.

Last week, he queried whether its latest iteration could end up canceling the BTC price downtrend altogether.

“We are at a critical point,” he added on Monday. 

“In a bear market bullish setups break and in a bull market bearish setups break. So if this W pattern is successful I would see it as a confirmation of a change in trend.”

BTC/USD one-day chart with Bollinger Bands. Source: John Bollinger/X

Coinbase Gets UK License for Multi-Asset Trading Push

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Coinbase Gets UK License for Multi-Asset Trading Push

Coinbase announced it secured a United Kingdom investment services license, allowing the platform to expand its local offering beyond spot trading and into products like equities and derivatives. 

On Tuesday, Coinbase said the authorization would enable UK users to trade financial instruments alongside crypto on its platform. Institutional and advanced traders would gain access to perpetual futures tied to crypto, equities and commodities, while retail would be able to access equities. 

The company said the approval marks its largest UK product expansion since entering the market and advances its vision of an “everything exchange” that combines crypto and traditional financial assets under a single platform. Coinbase said future rollouts would remain subject to regulatory permissions and UK market rules.

FCA research cited by Coinbase estimates that around 7 million UK adults hold crypto assets. A quarter of UK adults who do not currently own crypto said they’re more likely to participate under clearer regulation.

The authorization also comes ahead of the UK’s new crypto regime, which will begin accepting applications in September before taking effect in October 2027. It will require crypto trading platforms, custodians, stablecoin issuers, staking providers and other intermediaries to obtain FCA authorization.

The FCA did not comment before publication.

UK retail crypto derivatives remain restricted 

The differing product offerings reflect FCA rules governing retail access to crypto investment products. In 2021, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) banned the sale, marketing and distribution of derivatives and exchange-traded notes (ETNs) referencing certain crypto assets to retail consumers.

Related: Coinbase, Kraken and OKX move to swoop up EU users affected by MiCA restrictions

The FCA has since reopened retail access to certain crypto ETNs, with the change taking effect on Oct. 8, 2025. 

As a result, retail consumers can access crypto ETNs only if they are traded on an FCA-approved, UK-based Recognised Investment Exchange, while financial promotion rules and consumer protection requirements apply. However, the FCA said its ban on retail access to crypto derivatives remains in place.

Magazine: Bitcoin decouples from tech stocks, Ether eyes ‘selling wave’: Market Moves

EU Parliament Adopts Digital Assets Policy Position After MiCA Deadline

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EU Parliament Adopts Digital Assets Policy Position After MiCA Deadline

EU lawmakers on Tuesday adopted a position paper on digital assets, setting out their view on how the bloc should approach crypto regulation after the rollout of its Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework.

The paper calls on the European Commission to assess whether activities including decentralized finance (DeFi), crypto lending and borrowing, staking and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) should be brought more clearly into the EU’s regulatory perimeter. It also urges consistent application of MiCA across member states and warns against national rules that could fragment the bloc’s digital asset market.

The vote turns the report, “Digital assets – challenges for the competitiveness and integrity of the European Union’s financial system,” into Parliament’s formal policy position on digital assets, but it does not directly amend MiCA or create new legal obligations for crypto firms.

MiCA’s transitional period ended on July 1, requiring crypto-asset service providers that fall under the framework to obtain bloc-wide or national authorization to continue operating across the European Union.

The EU Parliament overwhelmingly approved its digital asset policy stance. Source: European Parliament

EU lawmakers look beyond MiCA 

The report reflects growing pressure in Brussels to address digital asset activities that remain outside MiCA’s current scope.

While MiCA established licensing and conduct rules for crypto-asset service providers and issuers of certain tokens, lawmakers have continued to debate how the framework should treat DeFi, staking, lending, NFTs and tokenized financial assets.

Related: EU crypto rulebook faces enforcement challenge as MiCA transition ends

The EC has already been reviewing whether MiCA should be expanded. In May, it opened a public consultation that sought feedback on potential changes to the framework, including whether additional crypto activities should be covered and whether MiCA’s restrictions on interest-bearing stablecoins should be revisited.

The Parliament report approved Tuesday also takes a more supportive tone toward tokenization and euro-denominated stablecoins, arguing that digital assets could support the competitiveness of EU financial markets if regulated consistently across the bloc.

Magazine: Bitcoin decouples from tech stocks, Ether eyes ‘selling wave’: Market Moves

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