Robin Hasson, Head of Reconciliations – Product Management at Smartstream, discusses a major evolutionary leap in financial services technology: the industry’s shift from simple process automation to full autonomy whereas automation typically focuses on point-to-point processes, such as loading data or managing throughput.
Autonomy, conversely, is defined by chaining multiple automated processes together into much longer, goal-driven workflows. This fundamentally changes the system’s purpose, enabling it to autonomously derive and execute the single best way to solve a complex problem rather than just following a pre-set routine. This new approach represents a significant evolution from the tools provided over the last decade, which simply allowed people to manually find, report, and deal with data themselves. Now, Smartstream is focused on an “outcome first” model where the system proactively seeks out problems before the user even knows they exist. Beyond just flagging an issue, the autonomous system is designed to propose an out-of-the-box solution, thereby delivering the end goal directly to the user and eliminating the tedious manual search for data or workarounds.
The deployment of these highly autonomous systems, however, requires careful design, particularly in the heavily regulated environment of financial services.Smartstream cautions that firms cannot simply allow a “black box” to control everything; systems must be designed to meet strict regulatory and business process needs. Accountability is paramount: there must be full traceability, audit, and control, including data lineage that tracks every change and explains the logic behind every decision. Crucially, the human element remains accountable and humans must retain the ability to sign off, approve, reject, or control the system’s actions, ensuring they can prove to regulators exactly what transpired at any point in the future
Looking at the world of agentic workflows, Hasson acknowledged that while agents can handle tasks like designing workflows, orchestrating connections, and simulating user activities, the challenging part is accurately capturing real business intent. This deep domain knowledge is something financial firms and providers like Smartstream have spent years fine-tuning with clients. Smartstream’s strategy is to leverage this existing, highly accurate knowledge, rather than starting from scratch, to build agentic workflows, resulting in greater value and more trustworthy systems. Smartstream anticipates that while this technology is in its early stages, it could eventually automate most back-office functions, provided the proper levels of human scrutiny, control, and accountability are in place.
Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered 25% from its multi-year low below $60,000, with momentum indicators flashing rare “buy” signals.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s MACD and RSI indicators forecast a sharp BTC price rally in the coming days.
Bitcoin price must reclaim $78,000 in the coming days to sustain upward momentum.
Bitcoin’s MACD, RSI confirm “bull market is on”
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD trading at $75,300, 4% below its 10-week high of $78,380 reached on Friday.
Despite this pullback, fueled by uncertainties over the US and Israel-Iran war, price indicators hinted at continued upside to come.
Analyzing the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator in the weekly time frame, trader Sykodelic flagged a key bullish crossover, setting Bitcoin up for an upward run.
Related: BTC price due ‘new highs:’ Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
“Not only do we have a 1W MACD bullish cross and break of trend, we have it from the lowest point the MACD has ever dropped to,” analyst Sykodelic said in a recent post on X, adding:
“We are at a very important level here, and the weekly close will be very important.”
Previous instances show that Bitcoin tends to rise sharply when the MACD line (blue) crosses above the signal line (orange).
This ultimately has led to 340%-380% BTC price gains, as seen in 2018-2019 and 2022-2023.
“A big move usually follows whenever this weekly MACD bullish cross happens,” analyst Mikybull Crypto said in a recent post on X.
Meanwhile, the relative strength index, or RSI, has now recovered to 43 from 21 in mid-February. When combined with a buy signal on the MACD, the picture begins to resemble previous cycles.
In a recent video posted on X, trading resource Material Indicators said that the weekly RSI holding above the 41 level was among the “macro things that need to happen to say a validated bull market is on.”
Previous occurrences in 2023, 2020 and 2019 have led to 660%, 1,600% and 316% BTC price rallies, respectively.
Other Bitcoin analysts suggest that sustained spot market buy volume and consistent inflows to the Bitcoin ETFs are the necessary components required for a rally to new highs.
Bitcoin must reclaim $78,000 next
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s bullish case hinges on flipping the resistance at $78,000 into support, where the true market mean currently sits.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s price action on lower time frames, Telegram trading resource Technical Crypto Analyst said that after reclaiming the $70,000 level, the BTC/USD pair is “now pushing into a major supply zone around 75K–78K, which is acting as resistance,” adding:
“A clean breakout above this zone could continue the move toward new highs, while rejection may lead to a pullback toward the 68K–70K support region.”
Fellow analyst Bitcoinsensus said failure to break above $78,000 would suggest that the latest rally was a “possible bull trap,” as seen in previous failed breakouts.
“If price loses momentum from here, the setup keeps downside pressure in focus in the near term.”
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Bitcoinsensus
As Cointelegraph reported, a close above the $76,000-$78,000 area would confirm that the buyers are in control, clearing the path for a potential rally to $84,000.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
Tangem Pay lets users spend USDC directly from their self-custodial Tangem wallets, settling all transactions on Polygon.
Switzerland-headquartered hardware wallet company Tangem today announced the global rollout of its retail payments product, Tangem Pay, per a press release shared exclusively with The Defiant.
The new feature lets Tangem wallet users spend stablecoin USDC anywhere where Visa is accepted, using virtual Visa cards that can be added to Apple Pay and Google Pay.
The wallet manufacturer also announced today that it is partnering with Polygon for the new product, with the blockchain providing on-chain settlement for all transactions.
As of today, Tangem Pay is available to users in the U.S. (excluding some states), Latin America, and select countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The global rollout follows an early-access phase for waitlisted users that began in November, the press release notes.
Tangem is a self-custodial hardware wallet founded in 2017. Unlike crypto hardware wallet giants Trezor and Ledger, Tangem only offers NFC-powered devices for crypto storage, which come in two forms: a card that’s about the size and shape of a bank card, as well as a wearable ring.
How It Works
To pay with Tangem Pay, users need to convert funds they want to spend into USDC first, before transacting, the firm clarifed to The Defiant. “Over time, we will expand supported assets and settlement options,” Tangem Pay CEO Marcos Nunes told The Defiant.
Currently, the wallet only lets users create virtual Visa cards that they can add to payment services like Apple Pay. But the firm plans to launch physical cards as well.
“A large part of the world still relies on physical cards, and we want to support that fully,” said Nunes. Tangem Pay’s CEO told The Defiant that the physical Visa card launch is expected this year.
Why Polygon?
Tangem said that the firm selected Polygon for its transaction speed, predictable fees, and ability to handle the high transaction volumes required for global payments. “Payments are a scale game, not a theory exercise,” Nunes told The Defiant, continuing, “You need near-zero fees, fast finality, and reliability under load. Polygon delivers that today in a way that supports real daily spending.”
Nunes also added, “We are not dogmatic about chains. This is an infrastructure decision. If something better emerges, we will adapt.”
Per the press release, Polygon will cover gas fees for users, at least for the initial rollout period. There are no fees from Tangem’s side, Nunes clarified to The Defiant. “It should feel like using money in a regular account.”
Aishwary Gupta, head of global business development at Polygon Labs, said in a statement: “With Polygon as the settlement layer, Tangem Pay makes self-custody practical for real-world spending, combining the transparency of blockchain with the speed and reliability users expect.”
Polygon is an Ethereum sidechain with $1.27 billion in total value locked in DeFi across 775 protocols, per DefiLlama. That makes it the 11th-largest chain in DeFi by TVL, while it’s currently the 4th-largest chain by 24-hour active addresses.
In January, Polygon Labs announced its acquisition of two U.S. regulated crypto companies, Coinme and Sequence, adopting their licenses and enabling Polygon’s operations as a regulated payments platform across 48 U.S. states.
Hard tech programs leave zero margin for supply chain errors. Securing highly qualified manufacturing vendors remains critical for producing hermetic space sensors and neurostimulator housings. While sourcing standard aluminum parts is relatively easy, outsourcing Rollyu Precision CNC machining requires serious technical due diligence to mitigate operational risks.
A sudden micro-component failure may easily destroy massive aerospace budgets. Procurement teams need to deeply assess actual technical depth beyond reviewing simple part blueprints. Finding experts in kovar machining services early prevents catastrophic workflow delays and controls total cost of ownership reliably.
Machine tools inevitably heat up during extended production cycles. Without active thermal compensation, thermal drift rapidly destroys intended micro-tolerances. Elite facilities utilize smart sensors that adjust cutting paths automatically. This vital technology ensures component dimensions remain completely stable.
Reviewing CMM Inspection Routines
Meticulous inspection accuracy fundamentally defines true manufacturing capability. The chosen manufacturer must utilize top-tier five-axis coordinate measuring machines to verify complex geometries. Relying solely on manual calipers remains entirely unacceptable for qualifying critical medical implants today.
Tracking Material Traceability
Full material traceability acts as your ultimate engineering safety net. Counterfeit or mislabeled alloys degrade system lifespans rapidly. Vendors must provide certified mill test reports with heat numbers. This documentation guarantees that structural integrity matches demanding engineering calculations precisely.
Managing Exotic Alloy Capabilities
Heavy industry and digital photonics frequently utilize notoriously difficult metals. Titanium and Inconel require specialized tooling geometries to prevent failure. Assessing a vendor’s technical competence providing kovar machining services prevents sudden workflow stops during peak periods.
Solving Fast Work Hardening
Specific exotic alloys harden rapidly when cut incorrectly. This frustrating characteristic damages cutting tools and destroys surface finishes prematurely. Partnering closely with absolute experts properly prevents these extremely specific thermal failures. Optimized spindle feed rates reduce internal material stress.
Verifying Hermetic Sealing Performance
Optoelectronic component housings demand absolute vacuum integrity over long durations. Uneven surface roughness causes catastrophic leaks over time. Validating processes used in kovar machining services remains critically necessary to achieve perfect glass-to-metal seals. Smooth surface grinding dictates ultimate package reliability.
Consistent volume scaling clearly separates decent machine shops from strategic partners. Sudden factory capacity constraints predictably stall massive medical device rollouts. Manufacturers must prove adaptable production scheduling capabilities immediately.
Confirming Multi-Axis Utilization
Multi-axis platforms minimize multiple part setups significantly. Each manual relocation step introduces compounding positional errors into the workflow. Continuous simultaneous cutting ensures pristine concentricity while accelerating production times. This specific technique represents standard Rollyu Precision CNC machining operational excellence.
Auditing Surface Finishing Integrity
Post-processing variables dictate final component functionality heavily. Advanced electroless plating and grinding alter tight dimensional tolerances slightly. Precision shops closely monitor chemical baths to preserve strict micrometer-level tolerances. This step is particularly vital for internal fluid dynamics hardware validation.
Probing Vacuum Processing Experience
Specialty metals behave unpredictably after heavy high-speed cutting phases. Proper thermal annealing relieves dangerous residual stresses safely. Procurement teams evaluating complex kovar machining services must confirm vacuum furnace usage. Doing so maintains critical structural stability perfectly.
Analyzing Automated Hand Off Systems
Robotic loaders optimize machine utilization during long night shifts. Manual loading physical variations introduce microscopic part seating differences predictably. Automation enforces strict repeatability across continuous production runs. High-quality vendors actively implement automated staging solutions to eliminate variance completely.
Conclusion
Qualifying an elite manufacturer secures your technical product’s market viability. Meticulous facility audits consistently reveal essential operational depth and quality control truths.
RavenDAO’s RAVE token lost over 98% of its value over the weekend, and the hourly chart now warns of another massive drop in the coming days.
Key takeaways:
RAVE chart hints at 50%-plus drop next
On the hourly chart, RAVE continues to trade inside a descending channel, with lower highs and lower lows forming between two downward-sloping trend lines.
As of Monday, the spot price was retreating after testing the channel’s upper boundary, a sign that sellers remain active on rallies. If that rejection holds, RAVE could slide toward the channel’s lower trend line in the near term.
RAVE/USD hourly chart. TradingView
A Fibonacci extension drawn from the latest bounce at the lower boundary to the recent pullback from the upper boundary points to the 1.618 extension as the next bearish objective.
That level comes in near $0.30, implying a further 55%–58% decline from current prices in April or by May.
Notably, the same setup correctly anticipated Sunday’s drop toward $0.49, reinforcing the channel’s relevance.
RAVE/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
Meanwhile, the 20-hour exponential moving average at $0.96 and the 1.0 Fib line at $0.94 continue to cap upside attempts. Unless the bulls reclaim these levels decisively, the broader bias remains tilted to the downside.
Market manipulation claims add to RAVE risks
RAVE’s technical weakness is unfolding alongside mounting allegations of market manipulation, with market watchers comparing it to the LUNA and WAVES pump-and-dumps from 2022.
Onchain investigator ZachXBT described the token’s explosive rally and subsequent collapse as a “blatant” pump-and-dump, allegedly orchestrated across major exchanges including Binance, Bitget and Gate.io.
Source: ZachXBT
He flagged roughly 23 million RAVE tokens (worth around $23 million) moving from a team-linked multisig wallet to Bitget deposit addresses shortly before a 40% flash crash, and has since maintained a $25,000 bounty for whistleblowers.
RaveDAO has denied any involvement.
Related: FOMO, lax rules are fueling the crypto crime supercycle
Still, ZachXBT has doubled down on his claims, arguing that over 90% of the token’s supply may be controlled by insiders, raising concerns about liquidity concentration and price control.
Source: X
A few days ago, RaveDAO revealed plans to sell portions of unlocked tokens to fund operations, marketing and hiring.
The team said it is considering price- or performance-based lock mechanisms to better align incentives, adding that “building a movement requires resources.”
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) general manager, Pablo Hernández de Cos, on Monday called for tighter global coordination on stablecoins, warning that US dollar-denominated tokens could have “material consequences” for financial stability and economic policy if they grow large enough to rival traditional money.
Speaking at a Bank of Japan seminar in Tokyo, he said current stablecoin arrangements fall short of what is needed for a widely used means of payment, even if they offer faster cross-border transfers and integration with smart contracts.
De Cos said the largest US dollar stablecoins, such as USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC), share characteristics with investment products rather than cash-like money, pointing to fees and conditions on primary market redemptions and episodes where their prices diverge from par in secondary markets.
In his view, these features make the tokens behave more like exchange-traded funds (ETFs), while still creating run and contagion risks because issuers hold short-term government debt and bank deposits as reserve assets. In a stress episode, he warned, rapid outflows from stablecoins could force sales of those reserves into already strained markets or transmit funding pressure to banks.
The warning comes as policymakers globally debate how to regulate fast-growing stablecoins and other tokenized money-like instruments.
Stablecoins: framing the debate. Source: BIS
He added that the use of public, permissionless blockchains and unhosted wallets means a significant share of activity sits outside conventional Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing controls, making stablecoins attractive for illicit use unless bespoke safeguards are implemented at on- and off-ramps.
Europe sharpens its stablecoin stance
The speech comes as European policymakers push for tighter control of non-euro stablecoins and other tokenized money-like instruments.
Earlier this month, Bank of France First Deputy Governor Denis Beau urged the European Union to go beyond the original Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation text by limiting the use of non-euro-denominated stablecoins in everyday payments, tightening rules on issuing the same coin inside and outside the bloc to reduce regulatory arbitrage in times of stress.
Related: EU central bank backs plan for crypto supervision under EU markets watchdog
In parallel, the European Central Bank has contrasted euro stablecoins with tokenized money market funds, noting that both perform liquidity transformation and are exposed to run risk, but operate under different transparency, liquidity management and regulatory regimes that can shape how stress feeds into funding markets.
Other major jurisdictions are also recalibrating their approaches. In the United Kingdom, members of the House of Lords questioned Coinbase in March over whether stablecoins could drain commercial bank deposits, trigger Silicon Valley Bank-style runs and facilitate crime, as the government finalizes a bespoke regime for fiat-backed tokens.
In Switzerland, UBS and several domestic peers launched a franc-denominated stablecoin pilot in a sandbox environment on April 8, in an effort to explore blockchain-based franc payments while keeping the instruments firmly anchored in the regulated financial system.
Magazine: Will the CLARITY Act be good — or bad — for DeFi?
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder, has blasted past 800,000 BTC in total holdings after announcing its latest purchases.
Strategy acquired 34,164 Bitcoin (BTC) for $2.54 billion between April 13 and 19, according to an 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.
The buy ranks as Strategy’s third-largest Bitcoin acquisition on record by coin count, behind purchases of 55,500 BTC and 51,780 BTC in November 2024.
Holding around 780,897 BTC after a $1 billion purchase just a week ago, the company now holds 815,061 BTC, purchased for $61.56 billion.
Source: SEC
The new acquisition was made at an average price of $74,395 per coin, slightly below the company’s average acquisition price of $75,527.
Saylor had teased the purchase on Sunday, signaling another large Bitcoin acquisition ahead of the announcement. The company also disclosed on Friday plans to pay Stretch (STRC) dividends twice monthly. STRC is the company’s perpetual preferred security.
“If we were to move forward with paying STRC semi-monthly, we would be in category one, the only preferred in the world that pays semi-monthly dividends. We think this is unique and attractive,” Strategy CEO Phong Le said.
Related: Bitmine ramps up Ether buys, pushes holdings toward 5% of total supply
Strategy’s STRC funds more than 85% of the purchase
Similar to a few recent acquisitions, the majority of Strategy’s latest purchase has been funded through STRC.
According to the filing, STRC generated $2.18 billion, or about 85.7% of total proceeds, while sales of Class A common stock (MSTR) contributed $366 million.
Source: SEC
Last week marked several new records for STRC, including the company’s largest single-day buying spree through its at-the-market, or ATM, program.
On April 13, STRC set a new estimated daily record of about 7,741 BTC, based on the sale of 11.9 million shares through its at-the-market, or ATM, program, generating more than $1 billion in trading volume, according to STRC Live.
The stock set another record the following day, with an estimated 9,364 BTC tied to 14.4 million shares sold through its at-the-market, or ATM, program. The two days combined brought an estimated 17,204 BTC, marking a 518% surge versus the four-week average.
Magazine: Will the CLARITY Act be good — or bad — for DeFi?
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) is working with Bybit, one of the largest crypto trading platforms, to explore ways to tokenize, custody and distribute assets such as U.S. public and pre-IPO stocks, a person familiar with the plans told CoinDesk.
The talks, which are ongoing, do not involve any sort of stake acquisition or similar deal for Bybit to enter the U.S., said the person, who asked to remain anonymous because they are directly involved in the discussions, dismissing a report of an investment publicized last month.
It makes sense for Bybit to partner with an American company, the person said, because the U.S. is home to certain assets that global users want. Bybit is international, while Coinbase is U.S.-focused.
Working together, the two can bring U.S. assets to a wider market in, for example, Asia, according to the person. Within five years, tokenization will bring any asset to users globally through a single app.
“Even if Coinbase becomes a super app in the U.S., they are still only in the U.S,” the person said.
The two companies’ explorations into tokenized stocks come as other market participants explore similar link-ups. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, in March announced it was taking a stake in crypto exchange OKX. Just last week, Deutsche Boerse, made a $200 million strategic investment into Kraken.
Bybit’s plan to enter the U.S. market does involve a local partner, but it’s not Coinbase, the person said.
The new U.S.-focused joint venture, said to be spearheaded by former Bybit co-CEO Helen Liu, will involve an unidentified “local partner who is going to provide license and compliance.” Bybit will to provide tech, product and liquidity.
The U.K. has launched its first-ever sovereign AI fund, designed to encourage the country’s AI innovators and create jobs and growth.
The government said it will invest £500 million, or $675 million, to back the country’s brightest AI startups, helping them to bring their ideas to life in the U.K., while scaling globally.
The initiative will essentially work along the same lines as a venture capital fund. In a statement late last week, the government said the country had to become “an AI maker, not just an AI taker.”
As well as providing recipients with capital, the backing of the state will reduce some of the regulatory hurdles that can often prove to be obstacles for fledgling companies.
Successful applicants will get benefits such as fully funded access to the U.K.’s largest AI supercomputers. Up to a million GPU hours will be made available for each startup.
A loosening of the U.K.’s visa process is also in place. The streamlined process will deliver visa decisions within a day, according to the government, and give participating firms access to 10 cost-free visas — moves designed to attract global AI talent.
Related:US, California Use Purchasing Power to Set AI Rules
Specific government support is promised, too, in areas such as data access, procurement and product validation.
“Sovereign AI is unlike anything government has ever done before. Its unique approach will help break down the barriers that have too often held back British enterprise and innovation,” the U.K.’s Technology Secretary Liz Kendall said in a statement. This is how we ensure Britain’s economic prosperity and national security in the modern age.”
Sovereign AI’s first equity investment will be in London-based Callosum, an infrastructure startup whose technology enables different types of chip architectures to work together to train and operate AI models.
Another six firms will be granted access to the U.K.’s AI Research Resource supercomputer network, with Sovereign AI getting first refusal on future investments for several of the recipients.
The companies are: Prima Mente, which is using AI to better understand brain diseases Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s; Doubleword, which is focused on inference infrastructure; Cosine, a frontier lab developing AI agents to work in defense and national security; Cursive, a firm formed by Google DeepMind alumni to develop AI agents; Odyssey, which is developing world models; and Twig Bio, a biotech company.
Sovereign AI was launched at the headquarters of Wayve, the London-based company that has become one of Europe’s most valuable AI companies thanks to its “embodied AI” system for autonomous vehicles. “We’re excited to see the next generation of British AI companies benefit from the funding opportunities available and join us in supporting the U.K.’s expanding AI ecosystem,” CEO Alex Kendall said in a statement.
Related:The Real AI Shift Isn’t New Models. It’s Control.
Bitcoin (BTC) begins the last full week of April juggling fresh US-Iran war fears as resistance hurdles line up.
Key points:
Bitcoin stays green on weekly time frames with multiple nearby price levels in focus.
Elliott Wave analysis concludes that $81,000 is Bitcoin bulls’ next “final boss.”
A resurgent US-Iran war threatens to unravel last week’s crypto and risk-asset gains.
Bitcoin ETFs see major inflows, but investors’ cost basis is still above $80,000.
Bitcoin’s true market mean metric reveals that the current bear market remains “mild.”
BTC price can still make “new highs” this week
Bitcoin still managed a “green” weekly candle despite last-minute sellers driving price below $74,000.
Data from TradingView shows a modest recovery ensuing as the new week begins — despite the lingering threat of geopolitical escalation between the US, Israel and Iran.
Price now has multiple resistance levels overhead, with the nearest being its 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $78,400.
Over the weekend, trader and analyst Rekt Capital stressed the influence of that trend line.
“Bitcoin is rejecting from the 21-week EMA (green),” he noted in an X post alongside a print of the weekly chart.
“It is this rejection that could force a post-breakout retest of the top of the Double Bottom (~$73k) next week, provided Bitcoin Weekly Closes just like this.”
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
In a subsequent post, Rekt Capital said that a successful retest of the $73,000 area would “confirm the breakout” for the bulls.
A Weekly Close just like this could confirm the 21-week EMA (green) as resistance to set up for a post-breakout retest of the Double Bottom formation top (blue ~$73k)
Continuing, trader CrypNuevo forecast that BTC/USD would continue to trade in a range with an $80,000 ceiling “for the next month.” They acknowledged that it was “unknown” how high the pair could go should the US-Iran war definitively end.
BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X
Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe, meanwhile, remained upbeat, seeing a push beyond last week’s local highs next. He noted that there was a new “gap” open above price in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market.
“Relatively strong bounce upwards on $BTC on Monday, as markets tend to go risk-off prior to the open. Gold has gone down, so no attached risk,” he told X followers on Monday.
“Bitcoin bouncing upwards, and given that there’s still a gap to $77.3K, I would assume we’re going to see new highs this week.”
BTC/USDT 12-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
$81,000 emerges as Bitcoin’s “final boss”
In its latest BTC price analysis, crypto market intelligence platform Decode placed specific emphasis on $81,000 as the resistance level to beat.
As part of Elliott Wave analysis, Decode showed BTC/USD trading between the 200-week and 21-week EMAs.
“Bitcoin still pinned below the 21 week ema, but looking pretty good overall, and with the final boss at 81k,” it commented.
This “final boss,” Decode explained in subsequent debate on X, “narrows the options from an Elliott Wave perspective, removing short term bearish counts.”
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Decode/X
$81,000 also represents the average entry price for institutional buyers of the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Nearby, the cost basis for Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) — entities hodling for up to six months without selling — is now at $83,500, per data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin STH cost basis data. Source: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant notes that the STH spent output profit ratio (SOPR) metric — the ratio of STH coins moving onchain in profit or loss — is circling breakeven.
“If SOPR manages to sustainably move back above 1, it would indicate that STHs are once again realizing profits, which is generally positive for the market as long as values do not become excessive,” contributor Darkfost wrote in a “QuickTake” blog post last week.
Iran war comeback risks risk-asset “unwind”
The US will release little by way of macroeconomic data in the coming week, but markets have bigger concerns.
With the sudden comeback of the US-Iran war, traders are suddenly revisiting the prospect of higher oil prices and a longer-term knock-in effect on inflation.
“The sudden change in events has characterized the Middle East conflict since it started at the end of February,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company commented in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
“And it appears that intensifying hostilities could unwind the bullish action over the past few weeks.”
WTI crude oil fell to its lowest levels since early March last week as markets increasingly bet on the ceasefire and agreements between the US and Iran holding. The fresh breakdown in diplomacy sparked a rebound toward $90 per barrel.
BREAKING: US oil prices surge +7%, rising above $89/barrel, as markets react to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and denying reports of a second round of talks with the US. pic.twitter.com/Tmtt8idhsr
Continuing, however, Mosaic warned that the writing was already on the wall for the equities rally after the S&P hit fresh all-time highs.
“Simply following breadth, sentiment, and positioning by institutional investors helped flag the recent rally. At the same time, warning signs were already emerging as the S&P 500 broke out to record highs,” it wrote.
“The number of stocks breaking out to new highs is failing [to] confirm the move in the indexes, while buying pressure from a key group of institutional investors has largely run its course.”
S&P 500 relative highs. Source: Mosaic Asset Company
As Cointelegraph reported, oil prices in particular are under the microscope as a US inflation catalyst. The next print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will reflect the ongoing impact of the war during April, is due for release on May 12.
Risk-on institutions wake up to Bitcoin
The upshot in risk appetite amid Iran relief had a near-instant impact on Bitcoin institutional investment vehicles.
In particular, the US spot ETFs saw considerable capital inflows through Friday, with more than 25,000 BTC entering over five days.
“The latest accumulations by spot ETF firms are significant, as the last time they posted a figure this close was in April 2025, when they added 23,900 units,” CryptoQuant noted in a “QuickTake” blog post on the topic.
US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors
Data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors confirms that on Friday alone, the net inflows to the ETFs were more than $660 million — the largest single-day total since January.
“Aside from the current milestone, BTC spot ETFs are recovering,” CryptoQuant continued.
“The balance held by the firm offering them has been declining since October, but has risen since the February dip.”
US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings data. Source: CryptoQuant
In BTC terms, the ETFs’ total holdings are now at their highest since November 2025.
GM ☕️
Last week we have seen –
– One of the highest inflows into #bitcoin ETPs. – Record bitcoin purchases by $MSTR.
Yet, $BTC has failed to reclaim the ETF cost basis (~$81k).
Commenting on X, Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise, acknowledged that ETF investors’ cost basis is still above spot price at $81,000, increasing the psychological significance of that level as a resistance hurdle.
Bitcoin price downside still on “milder path”
The average Bitcoin hodler remains underwater despite the recent trip to ten-week highs for BTC/USD.
Related: Bitcoin can grow ‘probably a lot bigger’ than $30T+ gold market — Analysis
New research from onchain analytics platform Glassnode also warns that in terms of history, Bitcoin’s current bear-market drawdown remains “mild.”
In an X article published on Thursday, lead analyst CryptoVizArt used the true market mean (TMM) metric to assess hodler profitability. TMM filters out long-dormant or lost coins to provide a more accurate picture of cost basis for the active BTC supply.
“When BTC trades below TMM, the average active holder is underwater. Since 2016, this has happened ten times with meaningful negative outcomes — episodes lasting from 2 days to over 11 months, with max drawdowns ranging from -0.1% to -57%,” they summarized.
Bitcoin true market mean chart. Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin is now over 75 days into its latest sub-TMM phase, with TMM itself at $78,200.
A chart plotting 2026 against Bitcoin’s historical average dips below TMM shows price forging a “milder path” than before.
“That said, 75 days is still early. The 2018 and 2022 episodes didn’t bottom until months 5-9,” CryptoVizArt warned.
“The signal isn’t ‘all clear’ — it’s ‘watch closely.’ Reclaiming the TMM and stabilizing there would mark active investors returning to profit, historically a strong reset point for momentum.”
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