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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Loss indicator has remained elevated even after the latest surge in the cryptocurrency’s price.
Bitcoin Realized Loss Has Stood At $479M Per Day Recently
In its latest weekly report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed the latest trend in the Realized Loss for the Bitcoin network. The “Realized Loss” here refers to an indicator that measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of loss that BTC investors as a whole are realizing through their transactions.
The metric works by going through the transfer history of each token being moved to see what price it was transacted at prior to this. If the last selling price was less than the latest one for any token, then that particular token’s sale can be considered to be leading to the realization of some net loss.
The exact degree of loss involved in the transfer is equal to the difference between the two prices. The Realized Loss calculates the sum of this difference for all loss transactions occurring on the blockchain. A counterpart indicator called the Realized Profit takes care of the transfers of the opposite type.
Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 14-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Realized Loss over the last few years:
The value of the metric appears to have registered a spike in recent days | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 18, 2026
As displayed in the above graph, the 14-day SMA of the Bitcoin Realized Loss witnessed massive spikes as the cryptocurrency saw price crashes in November and February.
These spikes weren’t anything unusual, as price drawdowns tend to accompany panic selling from top buyers. Interestingly, however, another spike has just recently appeared in the indicator, despite the fact that BTC has been rallying.
The spike is nowhere near of a scale similar to the earlier capitulation events, but it’s nonetheless an indication that there has been a greater push to exit below cost basis alongside the price surge. This may suggest that investors don’t believe that the price rally would last, hence why they have decided to exit at this lower-loss opportunity.
Currently, the Realized Profit is sitting at $479 million per day, approximately 140% above the $200 million baseline that has generally been seen during stable phases in this Bitcoin cycle.
The analytics firm explained:
A sustained compression of this indicator back below $200M per day would serve as a strong on-chain confirmation that selling exhaustion is taking hold, and that the market is genuinely transitioning toward a healthier demand regime.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $80,100, up 5% over the past week.
Looks like the price of the coin has retraced from its latest high | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
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Coinbase (COIN) reported a multi-hour disruption to crypto trading on Thursday, which the Nasdaq-listed exchange attributed to an outage at Amazon Web Services. The incident drew criticism as Coinbase continues to grapple with declining trading activity, quarterly losses, and staff layoffs.
The crypto trading platform said users were unable to transact across web and mobile services after failures hit multiple AWS availability zones in the U.S. Eastern Region, located in Virginia.
“Coinbase experienced service disruptions due to increased temperatures in the affected AWS service,” the trading platform said in a status-page update. Trading was later restored after markets were briefly placed into a “cancel only” mode.
“This primary issue is now fully resolved – thank you for your patience,” said Coinbase on Friday in an X post, adding its team would investigate the incident. “Details may change as our investigation progresses and more information is received from AWS’s official retrospective, once published.”
In a separate statement on X, Coinbase said systems initially flagged “high error rates across multiple services,” and engineers traced the issue to failures in AWS infrastructure.
“Coinbase systems are designed to be resilient to a single zone outage,” the company said. “In this case, we observed failures impacting multiple AWS zones, which caused an extended outage of core trading services.”
However, the disruption drew criticism from software engineer Gergely Orosz, formerly at Uber and Skype, who has over 310,000 followers on X.
“Unfortunate optics for Coinbase to have an hours-long outage when customers could not trade, a few days after their CEO said how non-technical teams are shipping code to production,” Orosz wrote on Friday.
Coinbase has faced scrutiny in the past due to outages during periods of high market volatility and infrastructure stress. In 2020, Coinbase experienced a brief outage as the price of bitcoin crashed 10% from $9,500 to $8,100 in 30 minutes. Other U.S. exchanges, including Kraken, had reported all systems as operational during the same period. A week prior to that, Coinbase experienced a similar outage when bitcoin rallied 15% to $8,900.
For Coinbase, which, as of now, appears to be the only crypto exchange affected by the May 7, 2026, outage, the disruption comes at a time when the company is facing financial and operational challenges.
On Thursday, Coinbase shares fell more than 5% in after-hours trading after it reported weaker-than-expected Q1 2026 results as decreasing crypto prices affected trading activity, one of the firm’s main revenue streams. The company posted a loss of $1.49 per share, compared with analyst expectations for a $0.27 profit. Revenue came in at $1.41 billion, below estimates of $1.52 billion.
It also follows its May 5 decision to slash its workforce by 14% or roughly 660 employees in response to negative market conditions and AI challenges. CEO Brian Armstrong announced the cuts in an X post on Tuesday, citing the “two forces” that converged in his firm’s decision to slash staff.
The U.S. labor market continued to show at least modest strength in April, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The economy added 115,000 jobs during the month, well above economist expectations for 62,000, though down from 185,000 in March (revised from an originally reported 178,000).
The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, in line with forecasts.
Bitcoin BTC$79,876.65 traded at $80,200 in the minutes after the release, roughly flat over the past 24 hours. U.S. stock index futures added to earlier gains, the Nasdaq 100 higher by 0.9%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 4.37%.
The report arrives at a delicate moment for markets and policymakers. Last week, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark fed funds rate range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, extending its holding pattern as officials weigh slowing economic growth against persistent inflation pressures.
The data also comes ahead of a new chairman taking the reins at the Fed, with Kevin Warsh expected to soon be confirmed by the Senate to replace Jerome Powell later this month.
Though off their highs, oil prices have remained elevated, with uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz keeping energy markets on edge. Higher crude prices risk feeding into headline inflation while also weighing on consumer spending and economic activity.
Chinese AI vendor Moonshot has raised funding of about $2 billion at a valuation of $20 billion.
The investment was confirmed in a statement from Huafeng Capital, which advised some of the backers, and constitutes Moonshot’s fourth major fund raise this year, as use of its open source Kimi chatbot and open source large language models continues to spike.
The latest round was led by Dragonball, the investment arm of Chinese tech giant Meituan, with participation from Tsinghua Capital, China Mobile and CPE Yuanfeng.
While not at the stratospheric level of funding that has become commonplace in the West over the past 12 months, the investment underscores growing investor interest in Chinese AI startups.
Moonshot has been building momentum since its founding, driven by the growing popularity of Kimi — which has seen subscriptions and API usage surge in recent months — and the Beijing-based lab is now the most heavily funded AI startup in China.
Related:Anthropic and SpaceX Agree to Major Compute Capacity Deal
It may not hold that status for long, however, with recent media reports that rival DeepSeek is on a major fundraising drive at a valuation of $50 billion.
Moonshot’s latest $2 billion capital injection was preceded by three separate rounds of $500 million, $700 million and another $700 in the months of 2026, with Chinese giants Tencent and Alibaba among those investing.
The vendor’s value, meanwhile, has grown more than fourfold since November last year, when it was rated at around $4.9 billion, while its annual recurring revenue topped $200 million in April, according to the Huafeng Capital statement.
The latest version of Kimi, K2.6, was released earlier this year, and is currently ranked second in a global ranking of AI models based on token usage by the OpenRouter distribution platform — ahead of Anthropic’s Claude, Google’s Gemini and xAI’s Grok.
Ether’s (ETH) price has retraced by over 5.6% to $2,275 after being rejected by resistance at $2,400. Now, multiple data points suggest ETH/USD may drop below $2,000.
Key takeaways:
Low network activity signals declining usage and reduced onchain demand for ETH.
Ethereum’s network fundamentals are weakening, with weekly average transactions dropping by 10% to 4.79 million, per data from Nansen. Active addresses dropped by 8% to 2.5 million over the same period.
Related: Three reasons why Ether price rallies fizzle near $2.4K
Network fees also dropped by approximately 27%, leading to a 47% reduction in onchain revenue over the last seven days.
Blockchain comparison: Daily transactions, active addresses and network fees. Source: Nansen
Additional data from DefiLlama shows that the weekly DEX volumes dropped to $1.64 billion on May 8, a 46% drop over the last three weeks.
Low transaction count, a drop in active addresses and declining DEX volumes reflect reduced ecosystem usage. As a result, the total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum’s DeFi protocols has dropped to $124.7 billion, levels last seen in May 2025.
Total value locked on Ethereum. Source: DefiLlama
This subdued network activity signals weak user conviction, affecting Ether’s ability to sustain upside price momentum.
Ether’s exit queue jumps 72,000%
Ethereum’s unstaking queue jumped by approximately 72,000% within two weeks to 530,985 ETH on May 2.
As of Friday, over 202,000 ETH were queued for redemption, with a wait time of around three days.
Number of Ether queued for exit. Source: Validator Queue
The surge comes after a series of significant DeFi hacks, reflecting investor caution. April 2026 saw DeFi platforms suffer a record $625 million in monthly losses following 30 separate attacks, including a $292 million loss from the KelpDAO bridge hack, leading to over $15 billion in deposits withdrawn from the Aave platform.
These incidents have prompted investors to unstake ETH to regain liquidity, signaling flight from perceived risk.
“The exit queue went from ~700 ETH to ~500K ETH in 2 weeks,” analyst Pete said in a recent post on X, adding:
“DeFi yield on Ethereum is getting crushed by hacks, exploits and increasingly nasty attack surfaces.”
Despite the sharp surge in outflow pressure, 3.6 million ETH remains queued for staking entry (7x exit volume), pushing total staked ETH to 38.6 million (31.72% of supply) despite 45-day wait times.
Ether’s Coinbase Premium remains negative
The Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between ETH on Coinbase and Binance, has stayed negative since April 27.
A negative premium confirms that the selling pressure is originating heavily from US entities. As long as US investors are selling at a discount compared to the global market, downside momentum will likely accelerate.
Additionally, US-based spot Ethereum ETFs snapped a four-day inflow streak with $103 million in net outflows on Thursday, the largest withdrawal since mid-March.
Spot Ethereum ETFs flows chart. Source: SoSoValue
Coupled with more than $81.6 million in outflows from global Ethereum investment products last week, this points to institutional selling, adding to Ether’s headwinds.
Meanwhile, ETH taker buy volume dropped to as low as -$25 million on Binance in recent days, indicating a “sharp increase in aggressive market sell orders,” CryptoQuant analyst BorisD said in a Quicktake note on Friday, adding:
“This structure raises the risk of short-term volatility and a support retest for ETH price action.”
ETH taker buy volume on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant
Ether’s rising wedge breakdown is underway
The daily chart shows the ETH/USD pair validating a rising wedge pattern after the price lost support at the pattern’s lower trend line at $2,300.
Bulls are now fighting to keep the price above $2,150-$2,200, where the 100-day and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs) are, respectively.
Another key line of defense is the $2,000 psychological level, which, if breached, would clear the path for Ether’s drop toward the measured target of the wedge at $1,830, about 20% below the current price.
As Cointelegraph reported, the ETH price may descend to $1,750-$1,850 if support at $2,300 is not reclaimed in the short term.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
Thursday had seen risk assets lose out amid rumors of the US restarting its “Project Freedom” campaign against Iran, while military strikes from both sides placed a fragile ceasefire in jeopardy. The S&P 500 came off new all-time highs.
Commenting, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe said that the retracement was no “surprise” given recent brisk gains.
“Assets trend in waves. Bitcoin has seen multiple days of momentum upwards, so it’s not strange to expect it to consolidate just now,” he wrote in an X post at the time.
“As long as the trend remains intact, I think we’ll see more upside during coming weeks.”
BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
Van de Poppe subsequently described Bitcoin as “doing just fine,” but said $76,000 needed to hold as support.
“The first rally out of a bear market lands at that resistance, and it would give some more momentum for Altcoins,” he added.
Trader Jelle also remained optimistic on the outlook while arguing that the day’s lows near $79,000 needed to hold.
“Even in the bearish case, I believe the turquoise zone will hold the price and trigger a reversal to the upside,” he told X followers about charts showing $74,500 as a potential downside target.
BTC/USDT charts. Source: Jelle/X
Bitcoin volatility metric demands larger moves
On daily time frames, BTC/USD thus failed to sustain a break beyond the upper band of the Bollinger Bands volatility metric.
Related: Bitcoin can crash to $50K if ‘most critical’ bear market test fails: Analysis
BTC/USD one-day chart with Bollinger Bands data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
As Cointelegraph reported, positive signals from the Bands even inspired their creator, John Bollinger, to take a position via his proprietary investment funds.
In an X response, trader SuperBro observed the narrowest-ever conditions for the Bands on monthly time frames — a key prerequisite for heightened volatility next.
BTC/USD one-month chart with Bollinger Bands data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report could inject volatility into the crypto market. Economists expect April job growth to slow sharply, with payrolls forecast to rise by just 62,000 compared with March’s 172,000, while the unemployment rate is seen holding steady around 4.3%, according to Reuters.
At first glance, weaker hiring data appears supportive for bitcoin and other risk assets. A softer labor market could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady this year and potentially delay any tightening cycle beyond that. As of now, markets are pricing in steady rates through this year, followed by a hike next year.
But the picture is more complicated.
Alongside the payrolls release, markets will also be watching wage growth closely. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 3.8% year-on-year, up from 3.5% previously. Sticky wage pressures, combined with already elevated oil prices, could strengthen inflation concerns globally and complicate the Fed’s path forward.
In other words, the market reaction may hinge less on headline job creation and more on whether wage growth cools. With traders already pricing in the possibility of future rate hikes next year, risk assets may need a softer-than-expected earnings figure to stage a meaningful rally.
For now, analysts remain broadly constructive on bitcoin, with the $75,000 level seen as critical support.
“Bitcoin has returned below $80K, extending its retreat from the 200-day moving average after briefly entering overbought territory near the upper boundary of its uptrend channel. The lower boundary of that channel sits near $77.5K, though a broader trend break would likely require a fall below recent lows around $75K,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro.
Beyond payrolls, traders are also keeping an eye on the upcoming minutes of the Fed’s April meeting, as well as developments in the Strait of Hormuz and global oil markets.
“Prediction markets assign a 97% probability to no Hormuz normalization by May 15. The gap between that pricing and the equity market’s willingness to fade every escalation is the week’s defining contradiction,” Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a market note. “If crude fails to de-escalate before the May 20 FOMC minutes, the stagflation narrative will become much harder to dismiss.”
Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What’s trending
S&P 500 call options volume surges to record $2.6 trillion. Here’s what it means for bitcoin (CoinDesk): Record volumes of bullish S&P 500 call options signal a surge in speculative risk-taking on Wall Street, offering bullish cues to crypto, as the two are positively correlated.
Trump says ceasefire still holds after fighting between the U.S. and Iran flares (Reuters): U.S. and Iran clashed in the Gulf and the UAE came under renewed attack, but Trump said a ceasefire was still holding despite the attacks, which dented hopes for a swift end to the war.
U.S. stocks rise as tech outlook offsets war worries: market wrap. (Bloomberg): A rally in technology stocks is lifting U.S. index futures as investors wait for the monthly jobs report. Oil fluctuated. Benchmarks in Europe and Asia fell. Brent moved to just above $100 a barrel. The dollar headed for a second straight week of losses.
Federal court rules against new global tariffs Trump imposed after loss at the Supreme Court (AP): A federal court ruled against the new global tariffs that Trump imposed after a stinging loss at the Supreme Court. The Court of International Trade in New York ruling found the 10% global tariffs were illegal after small businesses sued.
Today’s signal
Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium. (Coinglass)
The chart by coinglass tracks the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which measures the price difference between bitcoin traded on Coinbase, a proxy for U.S. institutional and spot demand, and offshore exchanges such as Binance. Green readings indicate BTC is trading at a premium on Coinbase, signaling stronger demand from U.S.-based investors.
The premium has flipped into a discount this week just as bitcoin looked to establish a foothold above $80,000. Interestingly, the rally has stalled.
Historically, bull runs have coincided with persistent positive readings in the index. The next move higher, therefore, warrants a return of the premium.
Stablecoin-based cards could soon account for double-digit percentages of all cards in some Latin American markets, John Timoney, head of strategic partnerships at Rain, a payments infrastructure platform, said.
Retail stablecoin card spend grew about 105% to 106% over the past year, Timoney said during a panel at Consensus Miami 2026. Cards are physical or virtual, allowing users to spend stablecoins such as tether USDT$0.9998 and USD Coin (USDC) directly from a digital wallet for daily purchases.
Rain provides stablecoin infrastructure for card issuers and recently became a Mastercard Principal Member, allowing it to offer credit and prepaid cards on the Mastercard network. Rain and Mastercard are also exploring on-chain settlement for some card program flows using regulated stablecoins.
The company is not trying to replace card networks, Timoney said. It is trying to make stablecoin balances usable through existing networks that already reach merchants globally.
“The card networks over decades have rolled up hundreds of millions of merchants,” Timoney said. “Rain explicitly did not want to reinvent the wheel.”
Spend patterns are also becoming harder to distinguish from ordinary card activity, he said. Stablecoin card users are spending across typical merchant categories, including large global merchants and everyday purchases.
“There’s nothing too remarkable about that,” Timoney said. “And I think that is what is remarkable.”
Despite their growth, stablecoin cards account for less than 1% of global card spend, senior vice president of business development at Consensys Ray Hernandez said during the same panel.
Crypto card adoption
Latin America has become one of the clearest markets for adoption, Timoney added. Stablecoin cards are being used across custodial and non-custodial wallets, crypto exchanges and products that abstract the stablecoin experience from users.
The merchant still receives fiat in many of those transactions. That separates card-based stablecoin spending from direct crypto push payments, where merchants may have to manage crypto settlement, volatility and transaction risk more directly.
The bigger change may be behind the scenes. Rain says stablecoin settlement lets card programs settle on weekends and holidays, reducing trapped capital by more than 40% in some cases.
Traditional card programs often need to pre-fund network obligations or borrow from networks when banking rails are closed. Stablecoins can move outside bank cut-off times.
That can make rewards and card economics more flexible, Timoney said. Capital that would otherwise sit idle can be used elsewhere in the business.
Mastercard has been moving deeper into stablecoin payments. Earlier this year Binance, PayPal and Ripple joined Mastercard’s broader blockchain payments push. That push saw the payments giant agree to buy stablecoin infrastructure firm BVNK for up to $1.8 billion.
Christian Rau, Mastercard’s senior vice president of digital assets and blockchain, said mainstream adoption will depend on making the technology invisible to consumers.
“Other than the people in this room, nobody says ‘oh, I just did an onchain payment’,” Rau said. “The normal benchmark these days is you have a card sitting on your iPhone or on an Android. You tap it, the money is gone.”
The consumer-facing pitch is not an onchain payment, he added. It is the ability to spend any asset in real time, with the network protections users already expect.
Hernandez said the next stage depends on easier on-ramps, abstracted network fees and more local payment infrastructure. Today’s crypto card users are still mostly crypto-native consumers who already hold assets on-chain.
MetaMask is expanding its card strategy around self-custody, Hernandez said. The MetaMask Card, developed with Mastercard and Baanx, lets users spend from a self-custodial wallet while assets are converted into fiat at the time of purchase.
“If all we’re doing is replicating the Apple Pay experience, I think it’s going to be okay, but I don’t think we’re going to overtake,” Hernandez said.
Paying in crypto
That view drew a challenge from GoMining CEO Mark Zalan, who argued that stablecoins and card infrastructure add unnecessary intermediaries to crypto payments.
Zalan said users want to hold bitcoin in self-custody and spend it without converting into stablecoins or relying on off-ramps. He described conversion layers and payment intermediaries as “little helpers” taking small fees from each transaction.
“Protection is another word for rent-seeking,” Zalan said, referring to the consumer protections embedded in card transactions.
Timoney pushed back, saying payments are not only money movement. Card networks also handle chargebacks, merchant risk and other protections consumers and merchants expect.
Rau made a similar point. Most consumers were “socialized with deposit insurance” and chargeback protection, he said.
“Payment is more than moving money from A to B,” Rau said. “From a consumer perspective, the experience of payment is interoperability, safety and security.”
Former Polkadot insiders report lack of direction and support from leadership, treasury overspending, and even failure to pay contributors for their work.
The exploit of Polkadot’s bridge protocol Hyperbridge last month is a symbol of deeper dysfunction within one of crypto’s most ambitious ecosystems, a former insider says.
Jaskirat Singh, co-founder and former CEO of Polkassembly, which served as the primary governance interface for Polkadot and Kusama for over five years before quietly shutting down last month, told The Defiant the exploit reflects a pattern of costly missteps at Polkadot.
The issues, Singh said, span from lack of direction from ecosystem leadership, to DAO overspending, and even failure to pay ecosystem participants for their contributions, including Polkassembly itself.
A spokesman for Parity, the company behind the development of the Polkadot blockchain, denied those claims.
Bridge Chaos
The Polkadot bridge situation has been expensive and chaotic.
“Hyperbridge, sadly, was the bridge that Polkadot had labeled as the official bridge a while back after having spent millions of dollars on building their own bridge and funding other bridges,” Singh told The Defiant.
A 2024 Polkadot governance vote approved nearly $6 million in combined USDC and DOT for Snowbridge — a Polkadot/Kusama-Ethereum bridge — which launched in 2024 after years of delays, then arrived with what Singh describes as “insane fees.” A subsequent Snowbridge funding request for $3.4 million was rejected by governance last August.
Meanwhile, Polytope Labs, the team behind Hyperbridge, raised $2.5 million in a September 2024 seed round led by Web3 Foundation (W3F), the nonprofit entity behind the Polkadot ecosystem, and VC firm Scytale, which Polkadot founder Gavin Wood advises.
Hyperbridge was elevated to native bridge status a year ago, per a press release from the protocol, with Polkadot governance allocating 795,000 DOT — worth about $3.8 million at the time and just under $1 million today — from the protocol’s treasury for a liquidity campaign.
Stuart Macdonald, chief of staff at Parity, pushed back on Hyperbridge’s and Singh’s framing.
He told The Defiant that Hyperbridge is not in fact Polkadot’s native bridge, and that while it was used for the liquidity campaign, it was “not an ‘official’, Polkadot-endorsed bridge.”
Parity and W3F are now distancing themselves from the protocol entirely.
“Hyperbridge is an independent project deployed as a permissionless parachain in the Polkadot network,” Macdonald told The Defiant.
Who’s Actually Running Polkadot?
To understand why this matters, it helps to understand how Polkadot’s institutional structure works.
Polkadot operates with two key entities: Web3 Foundation (W3F), a Swiss non-profit founded by Wood that currently leads advocacy and education with a focus on promoting web3 values; and Parity Technologies, the private company that leads protocol development and engineering.
Wood — who was also one of the co-founders of Ethereum before building Polkadot — currently serves as CEO of Parity, which he also founded, and President of the W3F Council.
This structure is a common one in DeFi, with protocols often opting for a non-profit foundation and a separate Labs company (centralized development company), often also coordinating with a decentralized autonomous organization, aka DAO, which is a community governance body of token holders.
OpenGov – which is Polkadot’s on-chain governance system, where DOT holders vote on decisions, like treasury spending and protocol change – has handled decision-making at Polkadot since 2023.
Polkadot’s origins trace to a 2016 whitepaper, authored by Wood, proposing a “heterogeneous multi-chain framework.” The original framework positions Polkadot explicitly as a Layer 0 chain, the foundational infrastructure on which other chains would run, rather than an application platform in its own right.
It also lays out the architecture and terminology Polkadot would go on to realize in production: a relay chain providing shared security to a network of specialized blockchains called parachains, enabling them to communicate without trusted intermediaries.
W3F raised approximately $145 million in a public ICO in October 2017, followed by multiple private sales in 2019. In Polkadot’s year-end report for that year, Wood said Polkadot conducted a “number of private sales,” selling over 5% of the genesis DOT supply. Wood noted that venture capital firm Placeholder Capital was among the participants, but didn’t reveal much else about the sales.
Finally, a 2020 private sale that raised just under $43 million, also with VC participation, brought total token sale fundraising to an estimated $247.7 million. The mainnet launched in May 2020, with the first parachains going live in late 2021.
W3F Sunsets Initiatives, Including Official Support
While W3F was an active participant in the development of the Polkadot and Kusama ecosystems since the foundation’s inception, Polkassembly’s co-founder argues that it has largely retreated from that role — a take the foundation itself didn’t deny.
This February, the foundation wound down its official Polkadot Support channels. Earlier, in December, it sunset its general grants program, as well as Decentralized Voices and Decentralized Nodes initiatives.
Leadership instability compounds the picture. Fabian Gompf, appointed W3F CEO in September 2023, stepped down in February 2025 after roughly 16 months. The foundation is now led by managing director Thomas Fecker Boxler, who joined W3F as CFO in March 2023.
Macdonald, who also currently provides official comms for W3F, said the shift was strategic:
“W3F is stepping back from operational roles to concentrate on global advocacy and long-term stewardship. On-chain treasury funding remains fully open and new programmes and initiatives will be rolled out by other entities as needs emerge.”
Indeed, W3F announced in March that it was narrowing its scope toward “championing the long-term vision of Web3 while ensuring that resources entrusted to the Foundation are deployed responsibly.”
Singh was less charitable.
“When the foundation was established, over $200 million went to the foundation — so to four years later come and say like oh now we’re only doing conferences and treasury management…” he said, evidently referring to W3F’s 30% allocation of Polkadot’s initial token supply, which was increased to 1 billion DOT in 2020.
Treasury Payment Issues
Singh told The Defiant that Polkassembly operated for over five years, tracking more than 1,700 Polkadot referenda and serving over 250K participants. He also said that the governance platform kept running for roughly eight months without payment.
After an initial attempt at retroactive compensation was denied, the team submitted a narrower final request for 62,700 USDT this February — $50K of which was to “settle a discounted portion of outstanding contributor compensation for already-delivered OpenGov infrastructure work.” The proposal excluded founder compensation and reflected a “45% reduction following internal discussions.”
It was overwhelmingly rejected, with over 99% of votes against. Anonymous commenters on the proposal said the platform had already “drained” and “milked” millions from the treasury.
While Polkassembly remains referenced and linked on Parity’s official website, as well as the official Polkadot Wiki’s OpenGov guides, such as here and here, Macdonald told The Defiant that Web3 Foundation “has never mandated Polkassembly to perform any work for us,” adding:
“Polkassembly was funded through OpenGov. Their most recent referendum sought retroactive payment for work the community had not approved in advance. The community voted against it decisively, with roughly 0.2% in favour – W3F abstained on that vote.”
Macdonald was also careful to note that W3F votes on decisions alongside other DOT holders and “is an independent entity that is one of many stakeholders in the Polkadot ecosystem.”
Meanwhile, Singh says Polkassembly isn’t alone.
“Everyone has faced the same problem with the foundation not giving any direction for the longest time and then coming in just basically closing all the doors on everyone and not paying them for their work.”
Just last month, a former Parity employee who went on to lead an ambassador program at Polkadot publicly alleged that she had not been paid for agreed-upon work and expenses totaling over $200,000.
Lucy Coulden, who has launched a crowdfunding campaign to cover legal costs, wrote that the uncompensated work for the Polkadot ecosystem spanned eight months and that there was a “clear and reasonable expectation that the work would be supported financially.”
The broader issue, Coulden writes, is that in the case of decentralized ecosystems, accountability can be blurred and individual contributors bear the risk that their work won’t be funded, even retroactively.
“Contributors are encouraged to deliver real work – partnerships, coordination, events and public engagement – often in reliance on governance systems that promise fair funding,” Coulden writes.
Singh said the problem with decentralized entities is that “there’s nobody really driving things. More importantly, there’s no accountability.”
Macdonald tole The Defiant that neither Parity nor W3F owes contractors money.
“To the extent any suggestion is being made that Parity or W3F owes unpaid sums in connection with the matters referenced, we do not accept that any sums are due or that Parity or W3F has any liability in relation to them.”
Referring to Singh’s claims of a broader pattern of not paying ecosystem contributors for their work, Macdonald shifted responsibility to collective DOT token holders, stating, “OpenGov funding decisions rest with DOT holders, and teams whose proposals are not approved are sometimes disappointed,” adding:
“W3F follows rigorous procedures for all its contractual commitments, and we are not aware of any outstanding disputes.”
Treasury Spending
Singh also raised the question of accountability around Polkadot’s treasury spending — including the reported $180K Polkadot spent on private jet branding in May 2024.
Polkadot spent a total of $133 million in 2024 — $48 million on outreach, $32 million on development, $19 million on business development — drawing community criticism, particularly around the $37 million allocated to marketing, advertising, and events in the first half of that year alone.
Spend dropped sharply to $70.6 million for full-year 2025, with Q4 coming in at $7.4 million, the lowest spending quarter since the introduction of OpenGov. But treasury spending for each of the remaining quarters last year was in the double-digit millions of dollars, according to Polkadot’s own reports.
Projects Voting with Their Feet: What Do Parachain Teams Have to Say?
The reported governance dysfunction has a parallel in project departures. Centrifuge, the real-world asset protocol that was among the ecosystem’s flagship parachains, announced last July that it was migrating to Ethereum, citing broader reach and liquidity.
Another project, Manta, announced last January that it was shutting down its Polkadot parachain, Manta Atlantic. Manta had first expanded to Ethereum as an L2 in 2023 and was running the two chains in parallel. In its announcement that it was deprecating its parachain entirely, the team underlined, by way of contrast, the “remarkable growth and adoption” on its L2 versus the parachain.
In November of last year, former parachain Phala, which launched in 2022, officially departed from the ecosystem as well, also migrating to an L2. The project’s DAO had first proposed sunsetting the Phala parachain in September, and later said the move was strategic: “It marks a new era for Phala — a deliberate choice of scalability and future-proofing over legacy infrastructure.”
The original governance proposal to sunset the parachain noted that its so-called slot on the Polkadot relay chain was expiring in November and “[k]eeping it alive would consume significant resources while locking us into an infrastructure with limited scalability.”
In Manta’s case, the official parachain sunsetting announcement was succinct and only indirectly cited lack of adoption in the Polkadot ecosystem as the project’s reason for leaving. But more than six months prior to that official announcement, Manta’s co-founder was explicit about the team’s critiques of the Polkadot ecosystem.
In a July 2, 2024 X post, Victor Ji wrote, “we do not want to engage with the Polkadot ecosystem and team at all.” He continued, echoing similar critiques from Singh:
“It is a highly toxic ecosystem that lacks any real value for web3, and it does not focus on users or adoption at all.”
Notably, Ji’s X post was a response to a post from April of that year criticizing Polkadot treasury spending from none other than the cofounder of Polytope Labs, the firm behind Hyperbridge.
In the scathing X thread, Ji also called the team behind Polkadot “incapable and not truly decentralized,” alleging that Wood and the team, presumably referring to Parity and W3F, had failed to support Polkadot builders.
“[T]he entire Polkadot ecosystem is essentially dead,” Ji wrote.
Commenting on projects leaving the Polkadot ecosystem, Macdonald said, “independent teams make their own strategic decisions.” He also noted that new projects have joined since, and that “using the Polkadot SDK allows for teams to easily join or leave the Polkadot ecosystem.”
In the same X thread, the Manta co-founder also accused the ecosystem and “Polkadot team” of discrimination against Asian founders and developers.
Ecosystem Update: What Do the Numbers Say?
Polkadot parachains collectively hold ~$81 million in DeFi TVL as of May 7, per DefiLlama data — with the bulk, over $75.7 million, sitting on the Hydration protocol.
But in September 2025, Hydration’s TVL reached as high as $376.5 million; it has since fallen more than 80%. For comparison, DeFi TVL on Ethereum currently sits at $48 billion, followed by Solana with $6.8 billion.
Hydration’s parachain, formerly known as HydraX, launched in 2022, but its TVL only began notably growing in 2024, eventually overtaking Moonbeam to become the ecosystem’s dominant DEX and lending protocol by value locked.
Hydration (blue) dominates Polkadot parachains by TVL share. Source: DefiLlama
Other parachains, however, have seen their TVL share shrink, especially over the past year. One of them, Astar Network — which was among the five original parachain slot auction winners in 2021, and secured over 10 million DOT via a crowdloan — represented between 60-70% of total value locked across Polkadot parachains from March-June 2022, per DefiLlama data. That share shrank to ~25% for the next two years and it’s now sitting at just over 2.5% of parachain TVL, as of May 6.
While Astar remains a parachain, the TVL shift reflects the project’s expansion beyond Polkadot to Ethereum and Soneium, Sony’s L2.
Acala, another of the original 2021 parachain cohort, suffered a different fate. Just after its TVL peaked above $110 million in mid-August 2022, a liquidity pool bug caused the erroneous minting over 1.2 billion of the protocol’s native stablecoin, aUSD. As a result, aUSD depegged and Acala’s TVL plummeted to below $50 million in a matter of days. It never recovered and in 2024 began drifting lower, reaching around $122,400 in TVL as of today.
Meanwhile, more broadly, monthly active users across the Polkadot ecosystem currently stands at around 43,000, per data from TokenTerminal, down from ~200,000 in December 2024, and an all-time high of 230,000 in January 2024.
Polkadot’s native token, DOT, is down about 98% from its November 2021 all-time high. Its market cap sits around $2 billion — still a top-50 asset by market cap, but a shadow of its 2021 peak. The native tokens of the original parachain cohort that secured the biggest crowdloans — Astar, Acala, and Moonbeam — are also all down over 98% from their respective highs, which they all reached in January 2022.
DOT all-time price chart. Source: CoinGecko
“The interesting story for me […] was that this model [decentralized governance] has failed broadly and even like Polkadot is kind of done. I mean they haven’t delivered anything for a while. The foundation is also kind of done,” Singh said.
In pushing back against Singh’s claim that Polkadot has slowed down on its technical deliverables recently, Macdonald referred to Polkadot’s Asset Hub migration in November of last year, telling The Defiant: “Polkadot completed what may be the largest ever live-to-live blockchain migration […] Transaction fees dropped 100-fold.”
Indeed, average transaction fees across the ecosystem have dropped from $0.007 the week of Dec. 1, 2025 to $0.00028 this week. But the lower fees haven’t led to increased usage, Token Terminal data shows.
Active users on the monthly and weekly timeframes have mostly trended downward since the start of the year. Since late March, weekly active users have spent three weeks below 10,500 — the lowest weekly levels in the past five years.
Since February, MAU has seen its lowest levels in five years as well, though April saw an uptick to 39,700 from 38,800 active users in March.
Polkadot weekly vs. monthly active users over the past 5 years. Source: Token Terminal
Macdonald said the Polkadot ecosystem’s focus is to continue building.
“We are focused on delivering product-grade infra for a new generation of Web3 applications. In the near term, our goal is to present a set of integrated capabilities that demonstrate what Web3 products can feel like.
The system evolves, our community governs, our engineers deliver. This is a maturing ecosystem,” he told The Defiant.
Indeed, just this week, Polkadot announced a new data storage model for decentralized applications, Bulletin Chain. The model introduces a time limit to improve scalability so that “everyday apps can run on decentralized infrastructure.”
Also this week, DOT staking service Polkadot Cloud announced that the Polkadot ecosystem now lets DApps cover fees for new users, addressing the friction of requiring users to have DOT to pay fees. However, The Defiant was unable to verify the development via Polkadot’s official channels and documentation.
Meanwhile, Polkadot’s DOT is the largest Layer 0 asset by market cap, per CoinGecko data. But the ecosystem’s TVL remains lower than other meta-networks, like Avalanche and Cosmos. The largest Cosmos chain has a TVL of $1.3 billion, while Avalanche’s TVL is over $660 million, compared with Polkadot’s approximately $81 million total, per DefiLlama.
With a recently launched DOT ETF, Polkadot is poised for increased mainstream and institutional attention, and possibly capital. But it remains to be seen where Wood’s “scalable multi-chain” will go from here, and if it can deliver on its ambitious goals — building the infrastructure “for a new generation of Web3” apps.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.