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Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Drop Hints At Critical Pivot For BTC

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Bitcoin (BTC) demand on Coinbase points to early signs of market stabilization as BTC reclaimed the upper bounds of its range highs. The 14-day trend of the Coinbase Premium Index has remained in an uptrend, suggesting steady buyer interest despite traders taking $1.14 billion in profits, which pushed the daily Coinbase premium to a six-week low. 

Coinbase demand stabilizes amid negative readings

The Coinbase Premium Index dropped to -0.087 on May 19, its weakest reading since March 31. A negative premium means Bitcoin traded at a lower price on Coinbase than on Binance, signaling softer demand from US-based buyers.

BTC profit-taking accelerated as it rallied to $82,000 and holders realized 14,600 BTC ($1.14 billion) in daily profits on May 4. CryptoQuant noted unrealized profit margins climbed to 17.7% on May 5, the highest level since June 2025. 

Bitcoin net realized profit and loss. Source: CryptoQuant

However, the longer-term trend for Coinbase paints a steadier picture. The 14-day simple moving average (SMA) of the premium index has remained above its February lows. Similar recoveries in the moving average preceded renewed spot demand on Coinbase during March 2025, shortly before Bitcoin pushed toward $110,000 in April-May 2025. 

The daily premium readings still sit below zero, though the rising SMA points to easing sell-side pressure. Bitcoin also continues to hold above the $70,000–$75,000 range, a zone that previously attracted strong spot accumulation.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium 14-day SMA. Source: CryptoQuant

Crypto analyst Amr Taha noted that activity across the Coinbase-linked network stayed elevated during the latest pullback. The Base blockchain revenue climbed to nearly $972,000 on May 19, exceeding late-March levels even as the Coinbase Premium Gap remained negative. 

The divergence highlights steady network participation inside the Coinbase ecosystem while spot demand gradually rebuilds.

Daily blockchain total revenue by different protocols. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: This Bitcoin price model targets ‘conservative’ $255K by year-end

BTC price receives support from the key daily trend

The daily chart of BTC still leans bullish after the rejection near $82,000. The price continues to trade above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $76,800, which is acting as key dynamic support.

The current retracement has held within the $76,000–$77,000 fair-value gap, keeping buyers active near recent accumulation levels. A recovery from this zone could reopen the path toward $80,000–$82,000, while the larger supply area near $86,000–$90,000 sits higher.

BTC/USDT, one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView 

$74,800 remains a key level and a daily close below that price would mark the first bearish break in the current higher-low formation and shift focus to the $70,000 psychological support level.

Futures data continues to support demand resilience. Market analyst CryptoOnChain reported that Bitcoin’s 30-day moving-average net taker volume dropped to $58 million on May 18 from $243 million in April. However, the metric remained positive during the recent correction, indicating that BTC futures buyers continued to absorb sell pressure near the current price.

BTC net taker volume. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Bitcoin sees fresh US sell-off as markets await Nvidia ‘biggest earnings event’

Missouri AG Sues Crypto ATM Operator CoinFlip ‘For Enabling Scams’

Missouri is suing the company behind cryptocurrency ATM operator CoinFlip for “knowingly facilitating fraudulent transactions and profiting from them,” in the latest move by a US state authority targeting digital currency kiosks and ATMs.

In a Wednesday notice, the office of Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway said the lawsuit against GPD Holdings, doing business as CoinFlip, was in response to incidents of fraud, including against the state’s “seniors and veterans.” The state began a probe in December into several crypto ATM companies, including Bitcoin Depot, which recently filed for bankruptcy.

Missouri lawsuit against CoinFlip. Source: Missouri AG

“The Attorney General’s Office is asking the Court to declare that CoinFlip’s practices violate the Missouri Merchandising Practices Act; to enjoin CoinFlip from operating in Missouri; to impose civil penalties of $1,000 per violation over the past five years (up to $1,826,000); and to award restitution to consumers,” said the AG’s office.

According to CoinFlip’s website, the company operates 136 crypto kiosks in Missouri, and 4,229 in the US.

In recent months, ATM operators like Bitcoin Depot, CoinFlip and others have been repeatedly targeted by US state authorities and municipalities which have passed laws and ordinances restricting or outright banning the technology.

Related: Minnesota to weigh ban on crypto kiosks after scam reports

Warning about fraud from May 2025. Source: CoinFlip

Cointelegraph reached out to CoinFlip for comment on the lawsuit but did not receive an immediate response.

Bitcoin Depot warned of lawsuits and regulations before filing for bankruptcy

In a May 12 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, crypto ATM operator Bitcoin Depot said “substantial doubt exists about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.” The concerns over paying more than $20 in legal judgments in the fourth quarter of 2025 and “ongoing litigation matters” came just a few days before Bitcoin Depot filed for voluntary Chapter 11 proceedings in Texas.

Bitcoin Depot was one of the largest crypto ATM operators in North America, responsible for more than 9,000 kiosks globally.

Magazine: 5 tech predictions the mainstream media got horribly wrong

Minnesota Law Opens Crypto Custody To Banks, Credit Unions

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Minnesota has become the latest state to grant banks and credit unions the legal authority to offer cryptocurrency custody services, a move that proponents say ends years of regulatory ambiguity that kept institutions on the sidelines of a market now worth trillions.

Governor Tim Walz signed HF 3709 into law. The legislation takes effect August 1, 2026. The law permits state-chartered banks and credit unions to hold virtual currency and the cryptographic keys that control it on behalf of customers and members. 

Minnesota joins New York, Wyoming, and Virginia, which have established similar frameworks.

According to the law, institutions seeking to offer custody services must adopt written policies covering risk management, internal controls, and cybersecurity before launching. They must also file written notice — including a description of their risk management program — with the Minnesota Commissioner of Commerce at least 60 days in advance.

The law mandates strict segregation of client digital assets from an institution’s own holdings, a standard requirement in traditional custody law extended to crypto.

Rep. Bernie Perryman, a lead author of the bill, said the legislation ensures Minnesota financial institutions can “evolve alongside their customers and members,” rather than forcing residents to turn to unregulated out-of-state or offshore providers.

The Minnesota Credit Union Network said the law “gives Minnesotans a safer way to manage crypto” by routing digital asset activity through regulated institutions subject to established oversight.

One institution was already operating 

St. Cloud Financial Credit Union launched its CU-Digital Asset Vault™ in March— more than three months before the law’s passage — making it the first credit union in Minnesota to offer members institutional-grade crypto custody.

As of this month, St. Cloud Financial members are safeguarding approximately 13.5 Bitcoin through the platform, the union told Bitcoin Magazine.

The Vault runs on Coin2Core©, an infrastructure product built by DaLand CUSO, a credit union-owned technology cooperative whose stated mission is to keep community financial institutions connected to emerging digital payment and settlement networks.

Chase Larson, an executive at St. Cloud Financial, told Bitcoin Magazine that the new law resolves a structural problem that had blocked many institutions from moving forward, even when leadership wanted to.

“For too long, credit unions and community banks in Minnesota have been operating in a regulatory gray zone where the absence of clear guidance was itself a barrier to action,” Larson said. “What it practically changes is the liability posture.”

The Vault’s architecture was designed around compliance before regulatory clarity existed, according to Larson. The system uses a collaborative safekeeping model in which no single party — not the credit union, not the member, and not DaLand — holds independent control over a member’s assets.

Larson said member feedback has centered on three consistent themes: trust in the institution, ease of use, and comfort in having a local, relationship-based organization involved in the custody experience.

“Members engaging with the CU-Digital Asset Vault™ are having broader discussions around financial strategy, long-term asset ownership, security, and the future of digital finance,” he said. “That is exactly the type of deeper relationship a core-centric philosophy is designed to foster.”

Broader crypto implications

The law’s passage is drawing attention from institutions across Minnesota and potentially beyond. Larson said conversations that once started with “is this even allowed?” are now beginning with “how do we do this responsibly and strategically?”

He framed the law as part of a national pattern, noting a growing wave of state-level crypto legislation working through legislatures across the country.

“Financial infrastructure, money movement, and the storage of value are evolving, and digital asset networks will increasingly exist alongside traditional financial systems,” Larson said. 

St. Cloud Financial’s longer-term roadmap — internally called the R-Path© — envisions expanding from custody into blockchain-enabled payments, real-time settlement, stablecoin frameworks, and other digital financial services as the regulatory environment matures.

Larson said the legislation does not alter that plan. “The legislation does not fundamentally change our direction,” he said. “It validates the strategic path we were already on.”

The law takes effect August 1. Institutions that want to offer custody services by that date must submit their 60-day notice to the Commerce Commissioner no later than June 2.

Polymarket moves to list parlays while SEC seeks public input on prediction market ETFs

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Prediction market provider Polymarket filed to list parlays in sports event contracts in the U.S. on Wednesday, according to a self-certification filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Polymarket filed to list “combinatorial outcome contracts” on Wednesday, describing these event contracts — the official term for prediction markets — as combining two or more underlying contracts. Moreover, all of the underlying contracts would have to settle to the specific outcome that the user sets.

“Every outcome must be satisfied for the Contract to resolve to $1.00. The Contract resolves to $1.00 if and only if every leg is satisfied. If any single leg is not satisfied, the Contract resolves to $0.00, regardless of the outcomes of any remaining unsettled legs,” the filing said.

Because the contract is self-certified, Polymarket is not so much asking for explicit permission to list these contracts as it is telling the CFTC that it intends to list these products. The document said it would list them “no earlier than May 21, 2026.”

Another exhibit was filed but with Polymarket asking the CFTC to hold this exhibit as confidential due to possible trade secrets or commercial information, according to a second document.

Exchange-traded funds

The Securities and Exchange Commission, which doesn’t directly oversee prediction markets, is looking into what an exchange-traded fund (ETF) around prediction markets might look like, Chairman Paul Atkins said in a statement on Wednesday.

ETFs boost capital formation and investor choice, he said, noting that ETF assets have tripled in the past seven years.

“Novel products raise novel questions, and I appreciate the willingness fund sponsors have shown in delaying the effectiveness of a number of novel ETFs, including event contract ETFs, while we consider the implications,” he said. “To ensure we do this in a transparent and thoughtful manner, I have instructed the staff to seek input from the public on how the Commission should respond to recent market changes.”

Prediction markets have drawn immense scrutiny in Congress and the courts over the past few months, particularly as they’ve expanded into sports leagues. State regulators and gambling firms argue that sports-related prediction markets are infringing on states’ rights to regulate and tax gambling products, since prediction market providers are regulated at the federal level.

The CFTC, for its part, maintains that these products are properly overseen by it under the Commodity Exchange Act. The U.S. Supreme Court is widely expected to take up the issue at some point.

In the meantime, lawmakers are reviewing prediction markets as well, though it’s unclear if a bill will be introduced to address them at this point.

Read more: Prediction markets firms take heat in Senate Commerce hearing scrutinizing surge

Bitcoin Rallies Back Into Range Even As Investors Spot Risks

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Key takeaways:

  • $2 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF outflows spark downside fears, but this metric is typically backward-looking.
  • A sustained discount on stablecoins in China signals broad capital flight from cryptocurrency markets.

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed $77,000 on Wednesday as broader risk markets saw modest relief after Brent crude prices retreated below $108. However, large outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have forced traders to reassess the odds of further downside risk, especially amid lingering fears of a global economic downturn.

Russell 2000 Index futures (left) vs Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s price action closely tracked the US small-cap stock index, hinting that macroeconomic factors are currently driving the move. The Russell 2000 Index excludes the 1,000 largest companies, shielding it from the heavy concentration of tech stocks.

Outflows from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $2 billion in the seven days leading up to Tuesday, sparking fears of a deeper price correction below $75,000.

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue

Traders are now turning their attention to the artificial intelligence sector, with Nvidia (NVDA US) scheduled to drop its quarterly results after the US market close. According to Yahoo Finance, investors fear that competition from AMD (AMD US), Amazon (AMZN US) Google (GOOG US) are closing in.

Stablecoin flows in China reveal weak demand for crypto

Regardless of Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings, stablecoin flows in China reveal a distinct lack of investor appetite for cryptocurrencies.

USD stablecoin premium/discount relative to USD/CNY rate. Source: OKX

Stablecoins traded at a 0.4% discount against the official Chinese yuan-US dollar foreign exchange rate, signaling heightened demand to exit crypto markets. Under neutral conditions, the metric typically sustains a 0.3% to 0.8% premium due to strict Chinese capital controls and the regulatory risks faced during arbitrage trades.

Part of this market-wide risk aversion can be pinned to stubborn oil prices and surging US Treasury yields. Selling pressure on government bonds indicates growing concern over the Federal Reserve’s ability to head off an economic recession without triggering major currency dilution. 

Related: Bitcoin lost its hold on $80K, but three events may send it back sooner than markets expect

Elevated energy costs are driving resilient inflationary pressures, ultimately limiting the central bank’s ability to deploy expansionary monetary measures.

Demand for downside Bitcoin price protection signal lack of confidence

Strength in tech stocks masks broader economic risks. Meta (META US) announced a 10% global workforce reduction, while Cloudflare (NET US) is eliminating 20% of its staff. On Wednesday, Intuit’s (INTU US) CEO confirmed the company is laying off 17% of its employees.

Bitcoin options put-to-call volume ratio at Deribit. Source: Laevitas

The volume of Bitcoin put (sell) options traded on Deribit outpaced equivalent call (buy) instruments by 42% on Tuesday as traders sought downside protection. This metric has completely retraced from the previous week’s 56% call option advantage, seen when Bitcoin flirted with $82,000. In essence, traders are reacting to recent price movements rather than anticipating them.

Macroeconomic trends and high-stakes AI earnings forecasts continue to dominate the news flow, making it difficult for Bitcoin to regain sustained bullish momentum. If Nvidia’s results fail to meet investor expectations, Bitcoin could retest the $75,000 level. Still, the mere $2 billion spot Bitcoin ETF outflows are backward-looking and unlikely to indicate structural bearish expectations.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX holds 18,712 bitcoin at fair value of $1.29 billion, IPO filing shows

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SpaceX officially confirmed plans to go public on Wednesday, setting the stage for what could become the largest initial public offering in history and potentially push CEO Elon Musk toward becoming the world’s first trillionaire.

The rocket and satellite internet company filed its S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, giving investors their first detailed look inside one of the world’s most valuable private firms ahead of a planned IPO expected next month.

SpaceX as of March 31 held 18,712 bitcoin on its balance sheet at a fair value of $1.29 billion, according to the filing. Those holdings would be worth closer to $1.45 billion today, with bitcoin trading just above $77,000.

The holding places the company among a small group of major corporations with significant bitcoin holdings. Musk’s other company, Tesla, holds 11,509 bitcoin in its balance sheet, according to BitcoinTreasuries data. Michael Saylor’s Strategy currently holds the largest with 843,738 bitcoin.

Biggest IPO

SpaceX is reportedly seeking a valuation of more than $1.5 trillion, with reports of a potential $2 trillion valuation. If successful, the company would immediately rank among the 10 most valuable publicly traded companies in the world, alongside Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia.

If it hits the upper end of the valuation, the listing could also surpass Saudi Aramco’s 2020 debut as the largest IPO ever. The Saudi oil giant raised $29.4 billion from investors in its public offering, valuing it at about $1.7 trillion.

Investor interest is expected to be strong because of SpaceX’s dominant position in both commercial rockets and satellite-based internet through its Starlink business. The company has built a major lead over competitors with reusable launch systems and a rapidly expanding global satellite network.

The S-1 filing offers a rare look at SpaceX’s finances, including revenue growth, capital spending, legal risks and ownership structure. Investors had closely watched the filing for clues about how much voting power Musk would retain after the company became public. The firm had 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, up from $14 billion in 2024, according to the filing.

SpaceX also mentioned its work in artificial intelligence, identifying that sector combined with its other business lines as a possible “trillion-dollar market opportunities.”

Musk already controls Tesla, xAI and social media platform X, making SpaceX one of the most anticipated technology listings in years. For SpaceX, Musk will be its CEO, Chief Technical Officer and Chairman of the board.

Liquidity drain

The IPO would also mark another milestone in bitcoin adoption in corporate finance, as large technology companies continue to add digital assets to their balance sheets.

However, SpaceX isn’t the only massive IPO that is set to debut. OpenAI and Anthropic, two of the largest AI firms, are also eyeing their public debut.

If all three IPOs hit the market in a similar time frame, investors might rotate capital away from other risk-on assets, such as crypto, into these public offerings, potentially draining liquidity from digital assets.

Read more: SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO could drain the liquidity that’s helping lift bitcoin and crypto

UPDATE (May 20, 6:01 pm ET): Adds more context throughout.

Steakhouse Fi Pulls $1 Billion Lead Over Competing Morpho Vault Curators

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Steakhouse Fi has expanded its lead to approximately $1 billion over the next largest Morpho vault curator, marking a significant shift in the competitive curator ecosystem.

Steakhouse Fi has widened its competitive gap to roughly $1 billion ahead of the second-largest Morpho vault curator, according to Token Terminal data. The DeFi protocol held virtually no meaningful lead over competitors a year ago, signaling rapid growth and market consolidation within Morpho’s curator ecosystem.

Morpho operates a curator model where multiple vault managers compete to attract liquidity by offering different risk-return profiles and strategies. Steakhouse Fi’s dominant position suggests it has successfully differentiated its offerings or captured significant user confidence within the Morpho ecosystem.

The curator ecosystem remains an area of active competition in DeFi, with protocols increasingly relying on specialized managers to scale capital deployment across different risk tiers and strategies.

Sources: Token Terminal

VerifiedX Brings Native Bitcoin Redemption And FROST Privacy To Base DeFi With Fireblocks Integration

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The VerifiedX foundation has announced the launch of vBTC.b on Base with support for Fireblocks, aimed at bringing Bitcoin’s digital gold qualities and world-class brand recognition to Defi and the Institutional self-custody markets.  

According to a press release shared with Bitcoin Magazine, VerifiedX is the first “Non-Synthetic Bitcoin Asset” with built-in native bitcoin redemption, compatible with Base, Coinbase’s increasingly popular EVM blockchain and Defi platform. “vBTC is now live as a canonical asset on Base under the ticker vBTC.b and is officially listed inside the Fireblocks platform with self-custody enabled.”

While the integration with Base makes vBTC available to the public. The integration with Fireblocks unlocks institutional interest, as Fireblocks is a leading institutional digital asset custodian and a powerful brand in the Western market. 

According to DefiLlama, the Defi market today holds over 80 billion in value. While Bitcoin remains the king of the crypto markets, its representation in Defi remains small; only 5 billion worth of value is held in Bitcoin across the broader crypto-defi ecosystem, while Ethereum holds over 43 billion of the same. 

VerifiedX believes there is strong demand for Bitcoin inside Defi, with institutions increasingly interested in self-custody solutions that can satisfy their needs for regulatory compliance as well as privacy from onchain analysis and front running. VerifiedX has been designed around these expectations, while innovating beyond traditional bridges, synthetic bitcoin wrappers and trusted federations. 

Their novel approach leverages a large open network of FROST multiparty computation (MCP) nodes that arguably set a new standard for cross-chain technologies. The VerifiedX tech stack has received “an institutional full-stack audit via Halborn.”

Bitcoiners can expect enhanced integration with Defi rails from vBTC, with new utility such as “programmable settlement, collateralized borrowing, yield strategies, and AI-agent commerce” among other potential features, while leveraging a far more decentralized and self-custody oriented cross-chain technology than has been available to date. The VerifiedX chain also has zero-knowledge proof technology built in natively, providing a privacy benefit to its users as they move BTC in and out of the system, shielding them from onchain analytics. 

FROST Multi-Party Computation and Self-Custody 

The VerifiedX network leverages breakthroughs in cryptography built around Bitcoin’s taproot upgrade. Each VerifiedX validator runs a FROST multi-party computation (MCP) server, a sophisticated and scalable form of Shamir secret sharing developed independently of VerifiedX. 

FROST, which stands for “Flexible Round-Optimized Schnorr Threshold Signatures,” unlocks a technology similar to multi-signature addresses in Bitcoin, but without leaving an obvious onchain footprint. FROST-generated addresses are cryptographically indistinguishable from other taproot addresses, providing significant privacy benefits. 

But the real value of FROST is its threshold signature technology, which allows party members to easily add and remove key shares (shards) to the group (as long as a majority agrees), without having to do on-chain transactions. Keeping the related computation off-chain allows a lot more parties to participate in the security scheme than previously possible, while keeping costs low and leaving no on-chain footprint on Bitcoin. When more than the threshold of shards are used in this MCP process, a valid Bitcoin transaction can be assembled. 

New members can join the public VerifiedX network as validators at any time, though they must jump through a few hoops. Users would need to sign a variety of transactions on the VerifiedX blockchain and need to hold 5000 VFX, the native asset of this blockchain. Once the right onchain transactions are signed, the network welcomes the new validator and their corresponding shard, growing the number of parties needed to pass the threshold. The result is a dynamic and large multi-signature bitcoin wallet that avoids corporate federated whitelists or small high-trust custodians. If members remove their 5000 VFX from the address, their node is removed from the active validators, and the FROST scheme adjusts accordingly. 

It’s important to note that while it is a breakthrough in decentralization, this public network scheme does not pass the technical definition of on-chain self-custody, since it does not give Bitcoin holders unilateral withdrawal rights to the underlying Bitcoin. If, for some catastrophic reason, the whole VerifiedX public FROST pool went offline, holders of vBTC would be unable to redeem their bitcoin. However, the scheme is arguably far more decentralized than current alternatives, often relying on simple single-digit multisignature addresses, synthetic bitcoin tokens backed by altcoins or trusted federations. In the current bootstrap phase, there are over 100 active validators, and the number can technically go up well over an order of magnitude.

The VerifiedX tech does, however, open the door for a self-custodied path from Bitcoin to Defi. According to Jay Pollak — Head of Strategy and Business Development at the VerifiedX Foundation — the VerifiedX protocol can allow users to set up their own “self-sovereign smart contracts” with shards and the corresponding smart contract that mints 1:1 collateralized vBTC 100% under their control, though this specific capability will be announced in more detail and made easier in upcoming updates. Such a ‘self-sovereign smart contract’ setup would arguably pass the self-custody standard, unlocking a direct path from onchain Bitcoin to the Defi ecosystem under the same vBTC ticker. 

The VFX Governance Token

VFX, the governance token of the VerifiedX blockchain, is a critical security component of the whole equation, especially for the public FROST pool. Some kind of cost needs to be imposed on new validators to prevent a swarm of fake accounts from overwhelming the network. To that end, the current implementation of the protocol demands 5000 VFX coins to be held by validators. However, according to Pollak, this number is very likely to go down soon.

The value of VFX has seen a sharp rise since January 2025, though Pollak points out that Bitmart is the only exchange that lists it, and better price discovery will come as it enters bigger markets and more liquidity is made available. He was adamant that VFX is a governance token and has no interest in competing with Bitcoin in any way. Today, VFX trades at about $69, making the cost of being a validator quite high, though Pollak also said the amount of VFX required was very likely to change to a much lower amount soon, making the self-sovereign smart contract self-custody path far more accessible. 

200 million units of VFX were minted in 2023 during the founding of the protocol, with 67.5 million going to the VerifiedX foundation and the rest being mined for active participation and in the test network. Today, the foundation holds about 32.3 million VFX coins. According to Pollak, the current lifetime supply of VFX is approximately 169.9 million, with the remaining 30 million effectively burned in the early days for security reasons. The circulating supply is much smaller, he added, as the testnet era mints are constrained and can only move small amounts at a time, “subject to an on-chain unlocking schedule, limiting sales to no more than the burn rate per block.” 

Bitcoin Magazine has a financial relationship with The VerifiedX Foundation. This article was not commissioned or reviewed by The VerifiedX Foundation and reflects the independent judgment of the author.

Bitcoin Seeing A Crucial Shift In Demand Dynamics While Price Action Weakens

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Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

As volatility persists in the market, Bitcoin faces a potential retest of the $70,000 price level following the recent pullback. With this waning price action, demand for the flagship asset among investors and traders is exhibiting a trend that could spell trouble for its near-term direction.

Demand Patterns For Bitcoin Are Undergoing A Change

Bitcoin continues to struggle with heightened bearish pressure, and a subtle but crucial shift is currently emerging in the market. Currently, BTC’s downside price action has begun to reflect changes in its demand dynamics.

In an analysis of the Bitcoin Spot and Perpetual Futures Demand Growth, Julio Moreno has shared that BTC’s total demand entered into a contraction phase on Monday, May 18. This shift comes after a steady upside since early March this year, driven by speculative demand. 

Bitcoin
Source: Chart from Julio Moreno on X

With fading buying pressure and cooling speculative activity colliding, this development triggered concerns about whether the market is either getting ready for a wider trend reversal or is about to enter a consolidation phase. Moreno highlighted that speculative demand growth, which is represented by the blue bars on the chart, reached its highest level as prices approached the $80,000 mark. However, this activity has since slowed down significantly. 

Meanwhile, spot demand, indicated as the grey bars on the chart, is contracting slightly faster than the speed of the cooling speculative demand. As demand patterns continue to adjust, this could play a role in shaping BTC’s next major move in either direction.

BTC Held At Loss Matching Past Levels

During this weakening momentum, another development that is drawing attention is the number of Bitcoins held at a loss. According to Darkfost, another CryptoQuant author, the supply of BTC held at a loss by long-term holders is not 5.7 million BTC, matching levels previously seen at the peak of past bear markets. 

In 2015, it was 5.96 million BTC, in 2019, it was 5.8 million BTC, while in 2022, it was 6.8 million BTC. It is worth noting that the most severe discomfort was felt by LTHs during the last cycle. Nonetheless, the recent 52% decline in Bitcoin is still significantly lower than what was observed in earlier bear markets.

Darkfost stated that this suggests a very large number of BTC was exchanged between $80,000 and $126,000, and the losses are probably present among the youngest cohort of LTHs. What’s important here is that the trend is not completely confirmed yet, but a slight distortion caused by the movement of 800,000 BTC from Coinbase on November 21 and 22 was observed.

Furthermore, a spike of more than 740,000 BTC can clearly be seen around April 21 and 22, while on Bitbo, the transaction to long-term holders occurs after 155 days. By adjusting the figure for this movement, the value could still be around 4.93 million BTC, which remains historically significant.

In the following 3 to 4 days, Darkfost noted that a number of LTH-related measures on platforms that use a 6-month threshold may also begin to move quickly. At that point, these BTC, which moved around $84,500, will officially shift from STH to LTH supply.

Bitcoin
BTC trading at $77,297 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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