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2026 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice: Consumer habits hold steady as payment options grow

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2026 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice: Consumer habits hold steady as payment options grow

CHICAGO–(BUSINESS WIRE)–For about 1 in 7 payments, consumers still pay with cash despite the growing proliferation of digital payment options, according to the 2026 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (Diary), the annual survey from Federal Reserve Financial Services measuring the evolving role of cash in the U.S. economy.

Now in its 10th year, the national survey revealed that U.S. consumer payment use remained largely consistent over the past three years. Cash remained the third-most-used payment instrument among consumers for the sixth year, with credit and debit cards accounting for two-thirds of all payments. Findings continue to demonstrate more gradual shifts in consumer habits when compared to the advancement of payment technologies and increased payment options.

“The consistency of cash and card use over the last three years suggests cash remains a stable payment method amid the rise in digital options,” said Kathleen Young, executive vice president and chief of FedCash® Services. “Cash continues to remain a primary payment method for some, while serving as a key backup payment option and store of value for many Americans. This points to the importance of consumer payments choice.”

The survey also revealed generational and demographic trends in payments. Households earning less than $25,000 per year and adults 55 and older relied more on cash than other cohorts. Rural residents tended to use cash more than their urban and suburban counterparts — making an average of nine cash payments per month, compared to six cash payments made by consumers in suburban and urban areas.

Other key findings included:

  • In recent years, U.S. consumers’ preferences for in-person payment methods have stabilized, though the survey also reveals noticeable shifts over the past decade. More consumers now say they prefer using credit cards in person (38% compared to 24% in 2016), nearly equal to the amount who say they prefer debit (40%).
  • Most consumers (76%) carried cash in their pocket, purse or wallet in 2025, with the average amount totaling $69. Nearly half (45%) of consumers stored an average of $364 in cash elsewhere for savings or emergency purposes.
  • Four out of five consumers used cash in the last 30 days, and 90% plan to continue using cash in the future.

Since 2016, the Federal Reserve has conducted this annual consumer survey each October to better understand the payment habits of U.S. consumers. Participants report all payments over a three-day period, the value of their cash holdings, payment instruments used and their preferences for various types of payments.

The 2026 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice is available on the Federal Reserve Financial Services website.

About the Diary of Consumer Payment Choice

The Federal Reserve conducts the Diary of Consumer Payment Choice survey every year to understand U.S. consumers’ payment behavior, preferences and how consumer payments change from one year to the next. The latest survey was conducted in October 2025. Understanding the evolving role of cash in the U.S. economy through the Diary studies helps ensure FedCash Services is fulfilling its mission of meeting cash demand in times of both normalcy and stress, maintaining the public’s confidence in U.S. currency, and providing ready access to cash.

Federal Reserve Financial Services uses data from the Diary to understand consumer cash use and anticipate its ongoing role in the payments landscape. By tracking consumer payment transactions and preferences annually during the month of October, Federal Reserve Financial Services compares cash with other payment instruments, such as credit and debit cards, checks and electronic payment options. Diary participants also report the amount of cash on hand after each survey day, cash stored elsewhere and cash deposits or withdrawals. Analysis of the Diary data includes the impact of age and income on an individual’s payment habits and preferences, as well as cash stocks and flows at an individual level.

About Federal Reserve Financial Services

Federal Reserve Financial Services provides payment services and seeks to foster the stability, integrity and efficiency of the nation’s monetary, financial and payment systems. It offers a comprehensive suite of payment and information services offered to financial institutions. Visit FRBservices.org® for additional information.

Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest chases Circle (CRC) stock as it hits a two-month high

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Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest chases Circle (CRC) stock as it hits a two-month high

Ark Invest bought $5.5 million worth of shares in Circle Internet (CRCL) on Monday as the stablecoin developer’s stock pumped following its first-quarter earnings report.

The St. Petersburg, Florida-based investment manager added 41,904 shares across three of its exchange-traded funds (ETFs): Innovation (ARKK), Next Generation Internet (ARKW) and Blockchain and Fintech Innovation (ARKF).

CRCL shares rose 16% to $131.76, the highest closing price since March 18, after the company posted estimate-beating earnings per share (EPS) of 21 cents.

Circle, whose USDC is the second-largest stablecoin, also revealed a $222 million raise for its Arc blockchain in a presale of the ARC token.

The purchase is Ark’s first of Circle stock since March 24, when it bought $16.3 million worth as the shares slumped 20%. It last sold CRCL on April 17, dumping $1.2 million worth on a day the stock closed at around $106.

The Cathie Wood-led company frequently buys into weakness in equities to capture greater value and rebalance the weighting of its ETFs. It is less common to see sizeable purchases that coincide with large share-price gains.

Court Greenlights Arbitrum DAO Vote to Move $71M in Recovered Kelp ETH to Aave

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Court Greenlights Arbitrum DAO Vote to Move $71M in Recovered Kelp ETH to Aave

The court order allows the on-chain Constitutional AIP vote and transfer to proceed without violating the restraining notice, but the freeze itself extends to Aave LLC.

A federal judge in Manhattan on Friday modified the restraining notice locking up roughly $71 million in recovered ETH tied to the April 18 Kelp DAO bridge exploit, clearing a procedural path for Arbitrum DAO to vote on transferring the funds to Aave LLC, though the freeze itself will carry over to the recipient.

Judge Margaret M. Garnett of the Southern District of New York issued the order, ruling that an on-chain vote and the subsequent transfer of the immobilized assets to a digital wallet controlled by Aave LLC “will not be deemed to be a violation of the Restraining Notice.” Voters, participants, and any party initiating the on-chain transaction are explicitly shielded under the terms of the order.

The catch: upon transfer, Aave LLC has agreed to abide by the restraining notice as if it had been issued directly to the company, until the notice is vacated, withdrawn, modified by plaintiffs, or expires. The court “reserves decision on all other matters” related to the underlying dispute, leaving unresolved Aave LLC’s demand for a $300 million cash bond and the broader question of whether judgment creditors can reach the funds at all.

Aave LLC said in a Friday X post that the amended Constitutional AIP preserves the recovery intent approved by Arbitrum DAO, and that the ETH remains directed toward the rsETH recovery effort. “Aave LLC will comply with all court obligations as proceedings continue,” the company said.

The order is the latest turn in a fast-moving legal fight over the 30,766 ETH frozen by the Arbitrum Security Council days after the bridge exploit, which drained roughly $293 million in rsETH and left Aave with as much as $230 million in bad debt. The funds were earmarked for the DeFi United recovery coalition, a multi-protocol effort led by Aave Labs and Kelp to make affected users whole.

The restraining notice was served May 1 by Gerstein Harrow LLP on behalf of plaintiffs in three consolidated terror-judgment cases against North Korea and Iran. The firm argued that public attribution of the Kelp exploit to the Lazarus Group made the recovered ETH DPRK property eligible to satisfy decades-old unpaid judgments. Aave LLC filed an emergency motion to vacate days later.

Friday’s ruling is procedural rather than substantive. It preserves the on-chain governance mechanism that Arbitrum DAO was using to authorize releasing the frozen ETH to Aave LLC, but does not resolve the central legal question of whether the recovered funds can ultimately be reached by the judgment creditors.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

Galaxy Digital to manage Sharplink’s new $125 million onchain yield play

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Galaxy Digital to manage Sharplink’s new $125 million onchain yield play

Galaxy Digital (GLXY) and Sharplink (SBET) are teaming up to put part of the latter’s staked ETH treasury into decentralized finance (DeFi) strategies.

The Galaxy Sharplink Onchain Yield Fund would receive $100 million from Sharplink’s staked ETH treasury and $25 million from Galaxy, the companies said.

Galaxy is set to manage the investment, which is expected to commence in the coming weeks under a non-binding memorandum of understanding.

The strategy will see capital deployed across DeFi liquidity protocols and other onchain yield strategies. The structure is designed to keep Sharplink’s core ETH exposure intact while adding an active yield strategy to its balance sheet.

Sharplink holds 872,984 ETH, according to separate first-quarter results. The company has generated 18,800 ETH in staking rewards since launching its ether treasury strategy in June 2025, the firm said.

The allocation is small relative to Sharplink’s ETH stack but large enough to mark a shift in the treasury model. At recent prices, $100 million equals roughly 43,000 ETH.

FIS Selected to Streamline Reconciliations for Australia’s Largest Bank

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FIS Selected to Streamline Reconciliations for Australia’s Largest Bank

WHY THIS MATTERS: The engagement between a global financial technology leader like FIS and Australia’s largest bank, CommBank, to upgrade a core banking function is a clear indicator of the deepening pressure on financial institutions to embrace payments modernization. In an environment driven by consumer demand for instant payments, the biggest systemic challenges have shifted from the customer-facing front-end to the back-office infrastructure. Verifying over 150 million transactions daily with legacy systems is not just slow; it has become a profound risk to financial integrity. This move to a fully-hosted SaaS solution for reconciliation is strategically critical, moving the function from periodic batch processing to continuous control with real-time data visibility. For industry readers, this is a value-first lesson: robust operational resilience and a unified data platform are no longer optional efficiency gains, but a mandatory foundation for meeting rising transaction volumes and stricter regulatory compliance standards globally.

Global financial technology leader FIS® (NYSE: FIS) has been selected by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CommBank), the nation’s largest bank, to streamline reconciliations through FIS Data Integrity Manager. In a banking environment, reconciliation ensures financial accuracy by verifying millions of daily transactions across complex systems. The fully-hosted solution will process over 150 million transactions per day.

FIS Data Integrity Manager delivers a modernized platform that supports the automation and management of all reconciliations across the enterprise. The platform uses real-time visibility and insights for more informed decision making, with automated alerts for discrepancies and a unified view across business lines—enabling teams to identify and resolve issues in minutes.

Delivered as Software as a Service (SaaS) via Microsoft Azure, upgrades to the solution will be managed by FIS, to support faster delivery of new capabilities. The platform’s high-performance architecture enables the processing of exceptionally large data volumes in minutes rather than hours.

The engagement also leverages FIS’ enterprise-grade risk, security, and compliance capabilities, including SOC1 and SOC2 certifications1, while supporting CommBank’s federated software architecture.

Andrés Choussy, President, Capital Markets at FIS, said: “FIS is proud to partner with CommBank to deliver a cutting-edge reconciliation solution that meets the demands of a rapidly evolving financial landscape. By bringing reconciliation onto a single, intelligent platform, we are enabling CommBank to unlock seamless integration and operational efficiency while ensuring the stability, security, and compliance essential to supporting Australia’s largest bank.”

David Pont, General Manager Financial Control & Transformation, Commonwealth Bank, said: “This implementation reflects our focus on investing in technology to continue to strengthen operations to ultimately benefit our customers. With FIS Data Integrity Manager, as a strategic partner we gain a platform that can scale with our business and support our continued growth.”

This strategic partnership highlights FIS’ leadership in financial technology innovation, showcasing its ability to help clients manage money seamlessly as it moves through the global economy.

FF NEWS TAKE: CommBank’s strategic choice to outsource a complex, high-volume function to a specialized vendor signals a significant maturity in the “buy versus build” debate for tier-one banks. Yes, this moves the needle, particularly as it underscores the fragility of legacy systems under real-time demand. The next critical element to watch for is the integration of cutting-edge AI and machine learning into this reconciliation engine. Moving from automated error detection to predictive compliance and financial crime mitigation is the inevitable next phase for platforms processing data at this scale.

Anthropic warns against unauthorized stock exposure as token markets imply trillion-dollar valuation

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Anthropic warns against unauthorized stock exposure as token markets imply trillion-dollar valuation

Anthropic, the AI company behind Claude, is warning investors that tokenized products claiming to offer access to its private shares may be invalid, escalating a fight over whether restricted pre-IPO stock can be repackaged for retail traders.

In an updated investor-warning page first published in February, Anthropic said any unapproved sale or transfer of its stock, or any interest in its stock, is void and will not be recognized on its books.

“We do not permit special purpose vehicles (SPVs) to acquire Anthropic stock and any transfer of shares to an SPV are void under our transfer restrictions. Offers to invest in Anthropic’s past or future financing rounds through an SPV are prohibited,” the company wrote on an updated warning page. “This means that if someone purports to sell Anthropic shares without proper board approval, that transaction is invalid.”

It added that any third party claiming to sell Anthropic shares to the general public through direct sales, forward contracts, “tokenized securities,” or other mechanisms is likely either engaged in fraud or offering an investment that may have no value due to our transfer restrictions.

Over the past year, several crypto exchanges have set up offerings for pre-IPO exposure to some of the hottest tech companies on the planet, such as Anthropic, SpaceX, and Polymarket. However, not all offerings are the same.

Some are synthetic pre-IPO perpetuals, where no underlying shares are necessarily held, and traders are simply betting on a reference price tied to a private company’s implied valuation. Those instruments may not directly violate a company’s stock-transfer restrictions because no shares move, but they leave users with a derivative claim rather than equity exposure.

By contrast, products offering private market exposure through special purpose vehicles (SPVs) or secondary-market holdings, such as PreStocks’ tokenized single-asset offerings or the Robinhood Ventures Fund I, are closer to tokenized private-share exposure.

PreStocks’ terms of service state that buyers receive no equity or shareholder rights in the underlying company, only economic exposure tied to reserve backing, However, it does not specify whether this exposure is delivered through a special purpose vehicle, leaving uncertainty around the exact structure behind its Anthropic-linked tokens, which the company says may be invalid.

That model may be more intuitive to investors, but it also runs more directly into the restrictions private companies place on who can buy, sell or hold interests in their stock.

John Montague, a Florida-based crypto lawyer, previously told CoinDesk that private companies may challenge these structures.

“I think private companies may also initiate lawsuits alleging that this violates their governance documents, shareholders’ agreements, investor rights agreements, or bylaws,” he told CoinDesk last year. “I view it as the issuer’s right to control the terms of transfer.”

Aside from unauthorized stock transfers, another headache these markets create for companies is valuation. Tokenized markets can generate eye-popping implied price tags that appear to be legitimate public price discovery, even when the underlying liquidity is relatively small.

PreStocks’ dashboard recently showed that Anthropic had an implied valuation above $1.5 trillion and a market valuation of around $1.37 trillion, despite the platform holding roughly $23 million in total assets.

For private companies that raise capital through negotiated funding rounds rather than public markets, this creates a real narrative risk. Speculative token prices can begin to shape investor expectations and headlines about valuations beyond the company’s control.

90% of small businesses are confident in growth outlook and turning to flexible payments to compete

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90% of small businesses are confident in growth outlook and turning to flexible payments to compete

Finds business owners see Buy Now, Pay Later as a growth tool, a trust signal, and a way to level the playing field with bigger businesses

Affirm (NASDAQ: AFRM) today released results from its inaugural Small Business Sentiment Survey. The findings show small business owners are navigating a more demanding market but remain confident about the year ahead, looking to flexible payment options to help them keep pace.

Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) is one of those tools, with many saying it helps them attract customers and build trust. Most also said expanding access to these options would benefit both businesses and the consumers they serve.

“Small businesses are the backbone of the American economy, and this survey makes clear that they are resilient, ambitious, and always looking for an edge,” said Pat Suh, SVP of Revenue at Affirm. “Nearly 70% told us BNPL acts as a stamp of approval in the eyes of their customers, signaling credibility at checkout and helping bring in new shoppers. This puts a premium on transparency and trust, which is exactly what small businesses are looking for in a partner as they work to stand out and grow.”

Small businesses are confident and ready to compete amid real pressure

Small business owners are bullish on their prospects. 90% say they are confident in their business outlook over the next 12 months, with 65% saying their confidence is higher than at the same point last year. That optimism exists alongside ongoing economic pressure: 86% say rising costs are a top concern, and 61% say they worry about competing with larger businesses.

BNPL is moving from nice-to-have to a competitive need

Small businesses broadly agree that flexible payment options help level the playing field. 70% say BNPL helps attract new customers, and 66% say it helps them compete with bigger businesses.

Among respondents currently offering BNPL, both those numbers rise to 92% — underscoring that once small businesses start using flexible payment options, they are much more likely to see the business value firsthand.

Flexible payments are good for small businesses and good for consumers

The survey also shows that small business owners see BNPL as more than just a payment tool. 68% of respondents agree that offering BNPL at checkout acts as a “stamp of approval” for customers. In other words, it signals trust.

61% of small businesses say customers who use BNPL are exercising smart financial planning. That matters because business owners are not just focused on driving sales. They are thinking about the customer experience and want to offer payment options that help customers feel confident.

Support for BNPL access cuts across party lines

The survey data also shows broad, bipartisan support for expanding access to BNPL.

68% of respondents say they would be more likely to support policymakers who advocate for small business access to these tools.

That support spans the political spectrum: 72% of self-identified Republican and 74% of Democratic business owners say they are more likely to support lawmakers who push for policies that expand access to flexible payments.

Views on responsible use were similarly broad. 67% of Republican and 66% of Democratic small business owners say BNPL is a smart financial tool that reflects planning and careful money management.

“Small businesses across the country are asking for the same thing: a fair shot,” said John Pitts, Vice President for Government Relations, Public Affairs, and Social Impact. “76% of small business owners support expanding access to flexible payment tools like BNPL. It’s not an ideological issue, it’s a Main Street issue. It’s about whether local businesses have access to the tools they need to serve customers and stay competitive.

Trust and transparency matter

When asked what matters most in a BNPL partner, 55% of small business owners said transparency around fees and terms.

That is central to how Affirm operates, and it aligns with another key finding from the survey: 72% of respondents said they trust Affirm to operate fairly and transparently. Among small businesses that already offer Affirm, that figure rises to 95%.

“We’ve built Affirm around the principles of transparency, no late fees, and fair treatment for consumers,” said Suh. “Small and medium-sized businesses—which make up 95% of Affirm’s merchant base—are clear about wanting access to flexible, transparent pay-over-time tools. We believe that trust is earned through simple, honest products that help both merchants and consumers succeed.”

Clarity Act, in the flesh, unveiled by U.S. Senate Banking Committee before hearing

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Clarity Act, in the flesh, unveiled by U.S. Senate Banking Committee before hearing

The legislation that could fully insert the U.S. crypto industry into the regulated financial system has emerged in its latest form, with the Senate Banking Committee unveiling the market structure bill’s text just after midnight on Tuesday in advance of this week’s hearing that’s set to push the effort forward.

The latest version wasn’t expected to offer many surprises for the crypto industry that’s already had a chance to dig through it privately, but it includes still-contentious language on stablecoin yield and it maintains legal protections for decentralized finance (DeFi) developers, keeping that corner of the crypto sector happy (so far). Industry insiders waited for the release late into the night, and they’ll still have to study the language to ensure their expectations were met.

“This bill reflects serious, good-faith work across the committee and delivers the certainty, safeguards, and accountability Americans deserve,” committee Chairman Tim Scott said in a statement. “It puts consumers first, combats illicit finance, cracks down on criminals and foreign adversaries and keeps the future of finance here in the United States.”

While an approval in the committee would mark a major, long-stymied step forward, the bill’s arrival at President Donald Trump’s desk is far from assured. Action this week would keep the possibility of passage alive, though a number of other hurdles remain — including the insertion of an ethics provision that isn’t yet present in this draft.

Ethics provision

The conflict-of-interest section that would theoretically limit government officials from profiting from the crypto industry is not under the jurisdiction of the banking panel, so the topic has to get into the legislation later. It’s been a contentious issue, because its genesis was seated in President Donald Trump’s own wide-ranging crypto interests, but White House officials have repeatedly said they wouldn’t tolerate a bill that targets the president. Meanwhile, Democrats won’t allow the bill to move without such a section, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand said last week at Consensus Miami 2026.

On the same stage in Miami, White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt said the current negotiating posture is to establish rules that apply “across the board, from the president all the way down to the brand new intern on Capitol Hill,” but reject anything that singles out a particular office or officeholder.

The committee’s ranking Democrat, Senator Elizabeth Warren, made clear that the ethics point is a priority, releasing a critical comment alongside the panel’s unveiling of the document.

“This bill puts investors, our national security and our entire financial system at risk — and it will turbocharge Donald Trump’s crypto corruption,” she said in a statement. “In just one year in office, the president and his family have raked in at least $1.4 billion in gains from crypto deals alone, and yet this bill stunningly includes zero provisions to prevent that.”

That ethics piece, though, remains on standby until the Senate committee can vote to approve the rest of the bill at its Thursday hearing.

Stablecoin yield

The newly released 309-page text includes the patch of policy ground over which lobbyists spent months fighting — the question regarding what type of yield would be acceptable for stablecoins. The document restricts the payment of interest or yield “solely in connection with the holding of … payment stablecoins” or on a stablecoin balance “in a manner that is economically or functionally equivalent to the payment of interest or yield on an interest-bearing bank deposit.”

Earlier on Monday, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong — whose company was at the center of the stablecoin rewards negotiation — held a live event on social media site X in which he said, “Not everyone got everything they wanted, but they got the must-haves.” He said his company is working with at least five of the largest global banks and is committed to banks successfully integrating crypto, he said.

“We want it to be win-win and work with the banks,” Armstrong said.

The outcome may have been settled for committee negotiators, but the bankers who consider stablecoins a threat have mounted a final assault to revamp the outcome. Over the weekend, the industry lobbying groups petitioned their members to make a last push among lawmakers to further limit stablecoin rewards programs in advance of the hearing.

At the same time, research released last week from Galaxy contended that trillions of dollars worth of foreign capital will flow into the U.S. financial system, easily making up for any domestic disruptions to deposits. The report “suggests a majority of stablecoin growth will originate offshore, meaning foreign capital will flow into U.S. banking infrastructure at a rate that materially exceeds any domestic deposit migration.”

DeFi

The legislation still includes a section to match DeFi’s Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, which protects software developers that don’t control people’s money from being treated as money transmitters, plus a number of other demands from DeFi defenders.

“We are encouraged by the direction of recent negotiations and note that the most important provisions for developers and infrastructure providers — the BRCA and protections under the Exchange Act — are in this bill,” the DeFi Education Fund said through a spokesperson, adding that the organizations will track amendments this week and will flag those that oppose the sector.

Meanwhile on Monday, Punchbowl News reported an accord among Senate lawmakers to address law-enforcement needs in the Clarity Act, specifically an allowance for prosecutors to pursue crypto misdeeds on the money-laundering front.

The White House’s Witt said last week that the administration is aiming for a July 4 finish for the Clarity Act, though Senator Gillibrand predicted its completion by the first week of August.

Work to do

Before then, Senate negotiators would still have some work to do on the bill after it advances beyond the committee. Assuming the Clarity Act gets a nod from the panel, it would still need to be merged with a similar version approved earlier by the Senate Agriculture Committee.

Then the lawmakers also need to resolve the sticky conflict-of-interest provision before a final version is likely to be available for a vote from the overall Senate, where 60 yes votes will be needed — necessarily including a significant number of Democrats. So far, the progress through the Senate has been dependent on Republican party-line voting, but other crypto efforts have typically reached major bipartisan support when the final votes come around.

Last year, the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins of 2025 (GENIUS) Act succeeded on a 68-30 vote in the Senate, easily clearing the minimum.

Read More: Banking groups escalate fight over stablecoin yield ahead of Senate vote

UPDATE (May 12, 2026, 04:31 UTC): Adds comment from Senator Tim Scott, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.

UPDATE (May 12, 2026, 04:43 UTC): Adds language from the proposed bill text.

UPDATE (May 12, 2026, 05:01 UTC): Adds remarks from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.

UPDATE (May 12, 2026, 05:05 UTC): Adds comment from Senator Elizabeth Warren.

Bitcoin Risks 30% Drop as Multi-Month Resistance Caps BTC Price Again

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Bitcoin Risks 30% Drop as Multi-Month Resistance Caps BTC Price Again

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed roughly 40% from its February lows, bringing the price back to a critical resistance zone that could determine whether the bear market continues or finally ends.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin fell 2.25% to around $80,500 after failing once again to break above its 200-day EMA resistance.
  • Previous rejections from the same technical level triggered Bitcoin declines of 25% and 36%.

Bitcoin bulls must decisively break key trend line

As of Monday, BTC/USD was down 2.25% near $80,500, erasing its overnight gains as buyers once again failed to clear the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA, blue line).

The level has capped Bitcoin’s rebound attempts since November 2025. Each rejection from the 200-day EMA has preceded steep drawdowns of 25% and 36%, respectively, putting the average decline near 30%.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

In his Monday post, analyst Brett said breaking above the 200-day EMA, currently near $82,580, could be “the end of the bears.” But given Bitcoin’s ongoing pullback, the prospects of BTC falling further in the coming sessions appear higher.

BTC’s price could fall toward $56,600 from current levels if it repeats its average 30% drawdown from the 200-day EMA rejection zone.

BTC price “lifetime support” model shows $56,000 floor

The $56,600 level aligns closely with Bitcoin’s broader macro support range.

A new Bitcoin Lifetime Support Model, highlighted by analyst PlanC, places BTC’s long-term upper support band near $57,110. The lower support was roughly around the $46,760 level.

Bitcoin lifetime support model. Source: Coin Metrics/PlanC

The model averages Bitcoin’s lifetime simple moving average with its single-, double-, triple- and quadruple-EMAs, then plots a 10% band around the result.

Historically, similar lifetime support zones have acted as macro bear-market floors. That means Bitcoin’s immediate setup remains bearish, but a decline toward the mid-$50,000s would still place BTC near a major long-term support area.

Bitcoin’s still unresolved bear flag pattern also hints at a potential drop below $60,000 in the coming weeks, as shown below.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s 2026 rebound mirrors past cycle bottoms

Despite the near-term bearish setup, Bitcoin’s latest rebound from the 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, blue line) is flashing a historically bullish signal.

BTC bounced by over 38% after testing the 200-week SMA near $61,000. This blue level closely aligns with major cycle bottoms seen in 2018 and during the March 2020 crash.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

In both prior instances, Bitcoin briefly dipped toward or below the 200-week SMA before staging a sustained recovery toward the 50-week SMA (red).

Related: Analyst says Bitcoin’s $60K bottom signals weaken bear-market forecast

Bitcoin’s next upside target could be near $94,700, up roughly 17% from current price levels, if the fractal continues to play out. A move that high could support Brett’s view that the bear market is nearing its end.

The bullish outlook is also backed by strong fundamentals, including aggressive whale accumulation that recently absorbed nearly 500% of Bitcoin’s newly issued supply.

Crypto and AI Could Be Dirty Words on 2026 Campaign Trail

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Crypto and AI Could Be Dirty Words on 2026 Campaign Trail

The AI and crypto industries have made headlines over the past year thanks to the impressive war chests amassed by corporate political action committees (PACs).

Profligate spending during the last federal elections in the US has led to unprecedented policy changes favoring the crypto industry, with indications that a full legislative framework in the form of the CLARITY Act is on its way to becoming law. 

But this hasn’t endeared the crypto industry to voters. Recent polls from Politico show distrust of the crypto industry, and the electorate isn’t sold on the benefits of AI.

“Voters across the ideological spectrum are raising concerns,” Michael Beckel, director of money in politics reform at Issue One, told Cointelegraph. “Some candidates on both sides of the aisle are trying to harness that frustration and outrage.”

Voters don’t trust crypto and don’t believe AI benefits them

According to the recent poll by Public First for Politico, most Americans don’t trust crypto and don’t believe in the benefits of AI. 

Source: Politico

While Republican voters are somewhat more likely to trust crypto, 47% of Americans overall trust a traditional bank over a crypto platform, while 17% trust a crypto platform as much as a traditional bank. 

The numbers for AI aren’t great either. Some 43% of Americans overall believe that the risks outweigh the benefits, while 33% believe the inverse. 

Source: Politico

Related: Crypto PACs secure massive war chests ahead of US midterms

Currently, most people haven’t heard about the major crypto and AI lobbies. According to Politico, only nine percent have heard of AI Super PAC Leading the Future. Only three percent have heard of pro-crypto PAC Fairshake.

That’s not much compared to public awareness of large lobbies like the National Rifle Association or the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, which are practically household names.

Still, association with crypto could be a problem. Ohio Republican Representative Jim Renacci told Politico, “I do think if they see somebody is backed by crypto, that’s always going to be a problem, because, let’s face it, the people that I talk to in Ohio, they don’t understand crypto, and most say they’re not comfortable with [it].”

Improving awareness around crypto lobbies may not help them much. Rick Claypool, research director at Public Citizen, told Cointelegraph:

“Generally speaking, voters are against corporate money influencing politics.”

“Even after Citizens United, the norm had been for big, brand-name corporations not to engage directly. Or when they did engage, they would often contribute through dark money groups that obscure their funding source.”

In this regard, the crypto industry’s spending spree in 2024 was somewhat unusual. Major contributors like Coinbase or a16z weren’t shy about the millions of dollars they put into campaigns.

But even then, “the voter-facing message from Fairshake was never about crypto, which voters never really cared about.” Mailers and ad buys reflected the supported candidates’ positions more broadly, or sometimes attacked those of the perceived anti-crypto candidate. 

Overall, “candidates who are seen as not beholden to corporate interests have an electoral edge,” said Claypool. This was true for populist candidates like US Senator Bernie Sanders and even US President Donald Trump, who claimed during his 2016 campaign that “he was so rich he could not be bought, which is laughable in hindsight.” 

If awareness about crypto — and crypto’s concerted efforts to influence policy — increases among the electorate, it may not shake out well. 

Issue One’s Beckel said, “If voters view an industry as toxic, that can have serious implications for candidates who don’t want to be perceived as too close to a controversial company or industry.”

Grassroots organize against AI, crypto gets its day in Washington

Voter dissatisfaction with a certain industry has translated into real action. 

Beckel noted a recent example when voter attitudes about the oil and fossil fuel lobby were enough to get some Democratic candidates to swear off any contributions. Beckel said that some organizations are already urging lawmakers to forswear any contributions from AI lobbies.

Indeed, there has been a grassroots movement growing against the AI industry more directly, namely the construction of the highly expensive and resource-intensive data centers. Local movements in seven states have blocked or delayed over $64 billion in data center investment. One state, Maine, is poised to introduce a state-wide ban.

Municipalities in California, Oregon, Arizona, Texas, Missouri, Indiana and Virginia have banned or delayed projects. Source: Data Center Watch

According to Claypool, this could prove a great opportunity for Congressional candidates “to seize the grassroots momentum against data centers and Big Tech for Democrats in particular, but not exclusively, since the tech sector has so fully enmeshed itself with the Trump administration.”

This increasing partisan alignment could also affect how voters perceive these industries. 

Jason Thielman, former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said that the crypto industry has attempted to “maintain a degree of bipartisanship and identify people whom they think will be champions on these issues.”

But even as the lobby claims to be bipartisan — Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong called crypto “the most bipartisan issue” in DC — its priorities like deregulation and withdrawn enforcement lean mostly, but not exclusively, Republican, said Claypool.

Claypool said that “crypto billionaires have tried to present themselves as scrappy underdogs against Wall Street.”

“But that’s a less compelling argument now that crypto allies run, in addition to the White House, the DOJ, SEC, CFTC, the Treasury Dept., and the Commerce Dept.”

Furthermore, the sector has become deeply tied to Trump himself after the president’s full embrace of the industry in 2024, as well as pardons for convicted crypto execs and his use of crypto for his own personal enrichment. 

With Trump’s popularity sliding due to geopolitical bungles, an unpredictable economic outlook and controversial policies at home, having ties to him and his party may carry political risk.

In a Democratic Illinois Senate primary, Illinois Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton accused her opponent Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi of being backed by big money from “MAGA-backed crypto bros.” She won by seven points. 

It could also influence future policymaking. Said Beckel, “If an industry is viewed as a friend of one party and enemy of another, it may be more likely to be in the crosshairs or under the microscope when the other party is in power.”

For crypto and AI, that moment may come as soon as Nov. 4.

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