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Bitcoin Sell Off Poses Risk To Nascent Altcoin Season

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Bitcoin Sell Off Poses Risk To Nascent Altcoin Season

Key points:

  • Bitcoin has dipped below $77,000, signaling that the bears are poised to seize control.
  • Altcoins are a mixed bag, with some attempting to push through the overhead resistance while others struggle to hold on to the support.

Bitcoin (BTC) has dipped below $77,000, indicating that the bears are attempting to seize control. Glassnode said the true market mean at $78,300 has historically acted as a dividing line between bear and bull market regimes. If the price breaks sharply below the level, it suggests that the recent rally may have been a “local top within the ongoing bear market.”

Institutional investors seem to be selling, as evidenced by the sharp decline in the Coinbase premium over the past few days. LVRG research director Nick Ruck told Cointelegraph that the decline of the Coinbase premium signals selling from large holders, which “could weigh on near-term price momentum across major crypto assets.”

Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView

What is the crucial level that suggests the bulls are back in command? Independent analyst Filbfilb said in a post on X that the previous two bear markets had ended after “a >+20% weekly candle and a break of the weekly super trend.” If the current bear trend has to fail, BTC has to rise above the super trend level at $88,000.

Could BTC and select major altcoins hold on to their strong support levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price prediction

BTC turned down at the 20-day exponential moving average ($78,280), suggesting the bears are attempting to take charge.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The $76,000 level is the critical support to watch on the downside, as a close below it would signal an advantage to the bears. That increases the risk of a drop to the support line, which is likely to attract buyers.

Time is running out for the bulls. They will have to push and maintain the BTC price above the 20-day EMA to gain the upper hand. If they do that, the BTC/USDT pair may begin its journey toward $82,000 and eventually reach the crucial $84,000 level.

Ether price prediction

Sellers are attempting to retain Ether (ETH) below the support line, but the bulls have kept up the pressure.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls will have to drive the ETH price above the moving averages to signal a comeback. If they do that, it suggests that the break below the support line may have been a bear trap. The ETH/USDT pair may climb to $2,465 and then to the resistance line of the ascending channel pattern.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price declines from the current level or the 20-day EMA and breaks below $2,077, it would signal that the bears remain in control. That may sink the pair to the $1,916 support.

BNB price prediction

BNB (BNB) rose above the 20-day EMA ($650) on Wednesday, and the bulls are attempting to push the price to $687.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Sellers will attempt to defend the $687 resistance, but if the bulls prevail, the BNB/USDT pair may march toward $730 and then $790. Such a move suggests that the pair may have bottomed out at $570.

The bears are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to defend the overhead resistance and pull the BNB price below the 50-day simple moving average ($631). If they succeed, the pair may extend its stay within the $570 to $687 range for a while longer.

XRP price prediction

XRP (XRP) remains below the moving averages, indicating that the bears are in no mood to let go of their advantage. 

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Sellers will attempt to strengthen their position by pushing the XRP price below the $1.27 support level. If they manage to do so, the XRP/USDT pair may plummet to $1.11, where buyers are expected to step in.

The first sign of strength will be a close above the downtrend line. The pair may then ascend to $1.61, a crucial level to watch. If buyers overcome the barrier, the pair may surge toward $2.40.

Solana price prediction

Solana’s (SOL) relief rally reached the 20-day EMA ($87.83), where the bears are expected to pose a strong challenge.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If buyers propel the SOL price above the 20-day EMA, it suggests demand at lower levels. The SOL/USDT pair may then climb to the $98 overhead resistance. A close above $98 signals the start of a new up move toward $117.

On the contrary, if the price declines sharply from the 20-day EMA and breaks below $82.65, it suggests the bears remain in control. The pair may then tumble to the $76 support.

Dogecoin price prediction

Dogecoin (DOGE) turned up from the 50-day SMA ($0.10) on Wednesday, but the relief rally is facing resistance at the 20-day EMA ($0.11).

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If buyers pierce the 20-day EMA, the DOGE/USDT pair may rise to the $0.12 overhead resistance. Sellers are expected to defend the $0.12 level, as a close above it would signal a short-term trend change. The DOGE price may then soar to $0.14 and later to $0.16.

The 50-day SMA is the critical support to watch on the downside, as a break below it could sink the pair to the $0.09 level.

Hyperliquid price prediction

Hyperliquid (HYPE) continued its uptrend, skyrocketing to a new all-time high of $62.65 on Thursday.

HYPE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Sellers are fiercely defending the $59.41 level, as they have not allowed the bulls to close above it. The first support on the downside is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $53.29. If the HYPE price rebounds off the $53.29 level with strength, the bulls will again attempt to resume the uptrend. A close above $62.65 opens the door to a rally toward $77.

Alternatively, a close below the $53.29 level suggests that the short-term traders are booking profits. The HYPE/USDT pair may then tumble to the 50% retracement level of $50.41 and then the 20-day EMA ($46.97). The deeper the fall, the longer the time needed for the resumption of the uptrend.

Related: XRP adds 4,300 new wallets in 24 hours, but why is price stuck?

Cardano price prediction

Cardano (ADA) has been trading just below its moving averages, suggesting the bulls have not given up.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A break and close above the 20-day EMA ($0.25) opens the doors for a recovery to $0.29 and, after that, to $0.31. Buyers will have to clear the $0.31 hurdle to signal the start of a new up move.

Instead, if the ADA price turns down from the moving averages, it suggests that the bears remain in control. There is support at $0.24, but if the level breaks down, the ADA/USDT pair may slump to the bottom of the $0.22 to $0.31 range.

Zcash price prediction

Zcash (ZEC) pole vaulted above the $643 resistance on Wednesday, but the bulls are struggling to sustain the higher levels.

ZEC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The relative strength index is forming a negative divergence, indicating that the bullish momentum is weakening. If the ZEC price closes below the $643 level, it signals the possibility of a deeper correction toward the 20-day EMA ($547).

If the ZEC/USDT pair turns up from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it indicates that the uptrend remains intact. The bulls will then make one more attempt to clear the $690 level, clearing the path for a rally to the $750 resistance.

Bitcoin Cash price prediction

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has risen above the breakdown level of $375, but the rebound lacks strength. 

BCH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The relief rally is expected to face selling at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $393 and then at the 20-day EMA ($414). If BCH price declines from $393, the risk of a break below $348 increases. The BCH/USDT pair may then resume the downtrend and plunge to $300.

This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if buyers drive and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA.

SEC Commissioner Peirce counters views that crypto rule will foster synthetic tokens

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SEC Commissioner Peirce counters views that crypto rule will foster synthetic tokens

The long-awaited U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rule to begin allowing tokenization of securities — a change that could have profound effects on the financial markets — has been facing the contentious perception it’ll allow synthetic tokens, but a commissioner has taken the unusual step to post statements about the unpublished rule to potentially counter those views.

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, who had pushed for safe harbors for tokenization well before the arrival of the new chairman under President Donald Trump, issued a pair of statements on social media site X on Thursday and Friday to clarify what she expects from the rule that’s set to emerge soon. Her posts suggested that the proposed rule won’t pave the way for synthetic tokenized securities — third-party tokenization that references a security but doesn’t carry the equity, voting and other rights associated with the security.

Peirce, the commissioner behind the SEC’s Crypto Task Force, wrote that she expects the coming rule — now potentially delayed — would be “limited in scope & would facilitate trading only of digital representations of the same underlying equity security that an investor could purchase in the secondary market today, not synthetics.”

Peirce posted again to explain what she meant by synthetics, directing people to read the SEC’s January statement on tokenized securities, “which distinguishes tokenized versions of issuer-sponsored stocks and of stocks that SEC-registered firms hold for their customers from synthetic instruments that provide exposure to stocks.”

The flames had been fanned by Bloomberg News reporting this week that predicted the agency was leaning toward including a path for synthetic tokens tradeable on decentralized crypto platforms. Peirce said she appreciates the public’s keen interest in the rule “but not the hyperbole” about it.

Peirce did not return a request for comment about her posts.

Bloomberg had also predicted that the rule could come as early as this week, but it reported in a subsequent story on Friday that the release was being further delayed.

The consequential rule will represent the most meaningful step the SEC has taken to-date to forge a new regulatory approach to crypto trading in the U.S. Chairman Paul Atkins has been saying for months that his agency is poised to release the wide-ranging proposals to provide regulatory exemption in the crypto space.

He outlined some of the effort in a March speech at the DC Blockchain Summit, saying the agency was contemplating safe harbors from certain regulatory demands for various crypto activities, including giving startups something like four years of registration exemption “provide developers with a regulatory runway during which they could work to reach maturity”; a “fundraising exemption” for certain crypto assets in which “entrepreneurs could raise up to a defined amount (say $75 million) during any 12-month period”; and an “investment contract safe harbor” to keep certain crypto assets from being defined as a regulated security, with the safe harbor triggering when the issuer finishes all their managerial efforts.

Atkins said at the time that Commissioner Peirce’s “fingerprints are all over” the SEC’s rulemaking.

While the SEC — alongside its sister agency, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — has been writing crypto rules, Atkins and CFTC Chairman Mike Selig have said they’re doing so with the understanding that Congress is right behind them with the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to put some of the same ideas into permanent law.

“Only Congress can ensure that regulation in this area is future-proofed through comprehensive market structure legislation,” Atkins said in March.

UPDATE (May 22, 2026, 18:53 UTC): Adds delay of the rule release.

A Freshman Congressman From Nashville Wants To Make The National Bitcoin Reserve Permanent

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A Freshman Congressman From Nashville Wants To Make The National Bitcoin Reserve Permanent

When Rep. Matt Van Epps helped lead the American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026 this week, he framed the bill not as an abstract national security measure — but as a direct extension of what he sees happening in his own backyard.

“Nashville is one of the nation’s leading Bitcoin hubs,” Van Epps said in a statement to Bitcoin Magazine, pointing to Bitcoin Park, the city’s growing digital asset community, and the annual Bitcoin conference, set to return to Nashville in 2027. 

“Nashville is quickly emerging as one of the nation’s leading Bitcoin hubs, with a growing digital asset community, institutions like Bitcoin Park, and the annual Bitcoin conference, which is scheduled to come back to Nashville in 2027,” Van Epps said. “Supporting this bill means supporting the financial innovation taking place in my district.” 

For the freshman congressman from Tennessee’s 7th District — a West Point graduate and combat helicopter pilot who won his seat in a December 2025 special election — this is personal. The bill is, in his telling, a statement about what his district already represents.

Van Epps co-led the legislation alongside Rep. Nick Begich (R-AK), who introduced the American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026, known as ARMA. The bill would codify President Trump’s March 2025 executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — giving it the force of statute rather than leaving it to the discretion of future administrations. 

The reserve would sit inside the U.S. Department of the Treasury and hold BTC seized through federal law enforcement forfeitures and civil penalties.

Van Epps’ central argument for the legislation is fiscal. “With a national debt of $39 trillion, this is an essential piece of legislation,” he said. Under ARMA, any future sale of Bitcoin from the reserve would be permitted for only one purpose: reducing the national debt. No transfers to other government programs, no discretionary spending — just debt reduction. The reserve, he stressed, “would be established without cost to American taxpayers”.

The bill also draws a firm line on property rights. Van Epps and Begich included language affirming that the federal government cannot interfere with an individual’s right to own, transfer, or self-custody digital assets — a provision that reflects the libertarian undertow running through much of the pro-Bitcoin caucus in Congress.

Van Epps: Bitcoin can fix some problems in the U.S. 

For Van Epps, the argument goes beyond portfolio management. He described the reserve as something with the potential to “solve major problems” for the country, with the national debt chief among them. Bitcoin’s fixed supply and its appreciation over time, in his view, give the United States a tool that gold certificates and traditional reserves cannot match.

The bill requires BTC in the reserve to be held for a minimum of 20 years — a provision designed to take the asset out of short-term political calculations and treat it as a generational balance sheet decision. 

Quarterly public Proof of Reserve reports and independent third-party audits would accompany the reserve, adding a layer of statutory transparency that the existing executive order lacks.

Eighteen original co-sponsors signed on, stretching across nine states. The Senate remains the harder terrain — competing crypto legislation is moving through committee there, and the path to 60 votes is unclear. 

Near Leads AI Token Rally With 50% Surge as $5 Price Target Emerges

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Near Leads AI Token Rally With 50% Surge as $5 Price Target Emerges

NEAR Protocol (NEAR) displayed strength on Friday, rising 34% over the last 24 hours to $2.32, leading artificial intelligence-based tokens in a rally fueled by NEAR’s network upgrades and NVIDIA’s bullish revenue forecast. 

NEAR is trading 50% higher than its price seven days ago and has gained a whopping 115% over the last 90 days.

Key takeaways:

  • NEAR price surged 50% in seven days, hitting six-month highs as AI crypto tokens rallied on strong market momentum.
  • NEAR Protocol upgrades focused on AI, privacy and scaling boosted investor confidence and trading volume above $1 billion.
  • A breakout from a multi-year wedge pattern puts $5.75 in focus if NEAR clears resistance between $2.60 and $3.

NEAR price rallies to six-month highs

Data from TradingView shows that NEAR’s recovery began on Monday, rising 58% to a six-month high of $2.34 on Friday from a low of $1.48. 

Accompanying NEAR’s price growth is an uptick in its trading volume, which has increased by 190% to $1.15 billion over the last 24 hours, reinforcing the intensity of the buyers.

NEAR/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The altcoin’s jump above $2.30 triggered over $9.85 million in short liquidations, as those betting against the price were caught off guard.

The gains come after NEAR Protocol announced of major upgrades focused on privacy, AI integration, and network scaling.

Source: X/NEAR Protocol

Aurora, the Ethereum-compatible scaling solution built on NEAR, also announced the update of its Aurora Intents Widget. The update integrated ADI Chain as a new entry point, enabling smoother cross-chain swaps, deposits, and application flows for users.

Source: Aurora

These developments demonstrate ongoing technical progress within the NEAR Protocol ecosystem, potentially increasing demand for blockspace and the NEAR token.

NEAR price rallies as AI tokens recover

NEAR is not the only AI-themed token outperforming the crypto market today. Other cryptocurrencies in the AI sector have witnessed impressive 24-hour gains, including Grass (GRASS), OpenServe (SERVE) and Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET), which have gained over 27%, 21% and 11% over the day, respectively.

Performance of top AI tokens by market capitalization. Source: CoinMarketCap

Notably, the surge in AI tokens has also been accompanied by an increase in their total market value. The market capitalization of AI and big data crypto projects and tokens has risen by 8% over the past 24 hours to $21.44 billion at the time of publication, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the sector.

Market capitalization and volume of AI and big data tokens market. Source: CoinMarketCap

Broader sector momentum was fueled by positive signals from Nvidia’s AI dominance and revenue forecasts. Nvidia, which maintains an 81–90% share of the AI accelerator market,  reported massive profits of approximately $81.6 billion in Q1 2026 and raised its projected revenue opportunity through 2027 to $1 trillion.

Source: X/Cointelegraph

Historically, Nvidia events have triggered strong rallies in NEAR price, as seen in February when the altcoin soared 58% following the company’s Q4 2025 earnings report. 

How high can NEAR price go?

NEAR’s latest rally saw it break out of a multi-year falling wedge that has capped the price since late 2024.

The NEAR/USD pair now faces stiff resistance at the $2.60-$3.0 supply zone, where major moving averages sit, as shown on the weekly chart below.

A break above this level would clear the path toward the measured target of the wedge at $5.75, roughly 160% above the current price. The relative strength index has increased to 63, indicating increasing upward momentum.

NEAR/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In an X post on Tuesday, MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said NEAR is displaying “one of the most bullish charts” in the market, adding that a continuation was in the cards as long as it held $1.40 as support.

“The first real resistance zones for $NEAR are at $2 and $2.25-$2.50,” Van de Poppe said in a follow-up post on Thursday, adding “it’s clearly trending higher,” with the next target near $2.75.

NEAR/USD daily chart. Source: X/Michael van de Poppe

Tom Emmer brushes off law enforcement concerns over Clarity Act

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Tom Emmer brushes off law enforcement concerns over Clarity Act

Latest developments: Emmer joined CoinDesk’s The Policy Protocol and said the Senate’s bipartisan movement on the Clarity Act shows crypto legislation still has momentum despite growing uncertainty in Washington.

  • Emmer pointed to the Senate Banking Committee’s 15-9 vote advancing the bill, arguing support extended beyond Republicans.
  • He said the House has spent years refining crypto market structure legislation and described CLARITY as the fifth or sixth iteration of the effort.
  • Emmer said lawmakers are trying to create clear distinctions between digital assets regulated as securities, commodities or cash equivalents.
  • He predicted Congress would ultimately send the legislation to President Trump’s desk.

The debate: Emmer forcefully defended the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), which would shield some noncustodial software developers from money transmitter rules.

  • Law enforcement groups have raised concerns that the provision could weaken oversight or hamper investigations involving decentralized finance tools.
  • Emmer called those objections a “red herring” aimed at slowing the broader Clarity Act.
  • He argued developers who do not custody customer funds should not be treated as money transmitters.
  • Emmer said inconsistent state-by-state treatment of blockchain software developers is creating legal uncertainty for innovators.

What this means: Emmer argued the U.S. needs clearer crypto rules to remain competitive globally.

  • He said companies want to innovate in the U.S. but need to understand “the rules of the road.”
  • Emmer criticized former SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s enforcement approach under the Biden administration.
  • He said the Clarity Act is designed to establish clearer distinctions between assets regulated by the SEC and the CFTC.
  • Emmer argued the legislation would encourage more companies to operate inside the U.S. regulatory framework.

Reading between the lines: Emmer sought to frame crypto policy as a bipartisan issue rather than a partisan fight.

  • He said “Republicans and Democrats agree on this stuff” despite ongoing Senate negotiations.
  • Emmer argued some senators are using negotiations around the bill to gain leverage on unrelated issues.
  • He said the crypto industry supports candidates based on policy positions rather than party affiliation.
  • Emmer described crypto and digital assets as part of the future of “21st century finance.”

Worth watching: Emmer said Congress is still debating how much authority regulators like the SEC and CFTC should have over crypto markets.

  • Renato Mariotti raised questions about whether the CFTC would need additional funding or staffing under a new regulatory framework.
  • Emmer said he favors “light touch regulation” and less authority for federal agencies.
  • He said Congress should focus on consumer protections and preventing fraud.
  • Emmer argued digital assets can provide more transparency than cash-based transactions.

DeFi Hacks Shake Institutional Confidence as Risks Outpace Yields

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DeFi Hacks Shake Institutional Confidence as Risks Outpace Yields

Security exploits are weighing on institutional appetite for decentralized finance (DeFi), even as broader crypto adoption continues through stablecoins and tokenized assets.

In an April research note, JPMorgan analysts said that bridge security remains a challenge for the industry, raising questions on whether DeFi can grow to support further institutional adoption. 

The recent exploit on the Versus-Ethereum bridge was the eighth major attack against DeFi bridges in 2026 so far, with cumulative losses totalling $328.6 million.

DeFi bridges remain prime targets for hackers seeking to steal millions of dollars. Source: PeckShield

Misha Putiatin, CEO of smart contract security firm Statemind and co-founder of DeFi protocol Symbiotic, said he regularly fields calls from major traditional institutions exploring DeFi exposure, often with bad timing. 

“Five minutes before I have a call with a big traditional institution, another big hack,” he told Cointelegraph. 

“They sit there looking at me like, ‘Is this normal? Is this every day for you?”

Still, institutions may get into DeFi, but the terms on which they arrive could reshape it into something that looks a lot more like traditional finance than the open, permissionless system its builders envisioned. 

DeFi has become too complex for DYOR

At the beginning of April, North Korea’s Lazarus Group was implicated in the $285 million Drift Protocol exploit, carried out through a months-long social engineering campaign in which infiltrators approached Drift contributors at an in-person crypto conference.

The same actors were blamed for the KelpDAO breach a few weeks later, which drained about $290 million from the protocol’s cross-chain bridge. 

Total value locked across DeFi fell to around $86 billion from just under $100 billion in two days following the KelpDAO hack in April. The outflows came from pools with no direct exposure to compromised assets, said JPMorgan analysts.

DeFi pools lost around $14 billion following the attack on KelpDAO. Source: DefiLlama

Related: Wall Street’s tokenization boom has a liquidity problem: Axis CEO

Putiatin said the complexity of modern DeFi makes it nearly impossible for ordinary users to know where their risk actually sits. “Do your own research doesn’t work anymore,” he said. “It hasn’t been working for a really long time.”

He explained that the system has become too interconnected and complex to trace. 

For example, when a user deposits Ether (ETH) to earn yield while never touching any other token, they can still get hit by a breach on a bridge connected to a token they’ve never even heard of. 

Do your own research, or DYOR, is an industry mantra born in the early days of Bitcoin, when protocols were simple enough that a user could read a whitepaper and make an informed decision. 

Today, with smart contracts running up to tens of thousands of lines of code, protocols layered on top of one another, and new services and tokens launching at breakneck speed, that expectation has become almost impossible to meet.

“I’m not ever expecting people that just want to invest their money to ever figure out every part of the stack themselves,” Putiatin said.

“I’m not going to spend the next two years of my life trying to figure out how to get a 6% yield,” he added, claiming that traditional finance alternatives are close enough in return that the DeFi’s security risk rarely makes sense for most investors.

A shrinking premium for an unquantifiable risk

Tether (USDT), the world’s largest stablecoin, offers a supply APY of 2.74% on Aave’s Ethereum market, the biggest DeFi lending protocol. That’s below the 3.57% available on a three-month US Treasury bill. Circle’s USDC (USDC) fares better at 4.14%.

Supply and borrow APY on Aave’s Ethereum market. Source: Aave

Related: Why stablecoins and SWIFT may have to coexist

Putiatin said institutions see this clearly, even if they struggle to quantify it precisely. The problem is that institutions have no reliable framework for pricing the hack risk sitting underneath them. 

“They can’t price risk properly,” he said. “So they discount the yield we provide by a lot.”

DeFi yields have compressed as the market has matured, eroding the premium that once justified the risk. 

At the same time, the hacks have not slowed down. For investors used to underwriting risk with actuarial precision, shrinking upside and unquantifiable downside is a hard sell.

The cost of DeFi’s seat at the table

Putiatin’s benchmark for when DeFi has genuinely turned a corner is an onchain insurance system capable of underwriting hack risk across the entire ecosystem and pricing it with the kind of actuarial precision that institutions require.

“When we have circuit breakers, curators that can do due diligence, and a framework for that — we will get the fourth one that we desperately need as an industry,” he said. “We will get insurance.”

DeFi has lost over $7.76 billion to exploits, according to DeFiLlama data tracing back to 2016. Though DeFi insurance providers exist, their capacity remains too small to backstop anything approaching institutional scale.

Without that infrastructure, institutions that do come in will do so on their own terms, demanding full know-your-customer checks, custodial controls and tokens that can be frozen at any time.

The open, permissionless architecture that made DeFi worth building gets stripped to satisfy compliance requirements.

“All of the benefits that we have as an industry, they kind of go away,” he said. “Blockchain becomes just a database.”

It is an outcome Putiatin finds more troubling than the hacks themselves. The hacks, at least, are a problem the industry can work on. A version of DeFi that institutions have hollowed out to make it safe enough for their mandates is a surrender of everything the technology was supposed to change.

Magazine: 5 tech predictions the mainstream media got horribly wrong

Congress hits Polymarket and Kalshi with a massive insider trading probe

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Congress hits Polymarket and Kalshi with a massive insider trading probe

The U.S. House Oversight Committee plans a probe into the largest prediction market platforms over suspicions that government employees could be exploiting classified information for personal gain.

Rep. James Comer, R-Ky., chair of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, is seeding the internal records from the CEOs of Polymarket and Kalshi to determine if government employees are using insider knowledge to profit from policy and geopolitical and military operations, he said on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Friday.

“There’s a concern now that members of Congress, members of the president’s administration, any type of government employee, can use basic insider knowledge and make huge profits on anything government-related,” Comer told CNBC.

“So we want to not only launch an investigation to see how widespread this has been thus far, but also to prove a case that we’ve got to pass some type of legislation,” Comer added. “And I think it wouldn’t be too much to ask to say members of Congress can’t participate in the predictions market, nor can government employees or people in the president’s administration.”

Comer’s probe is the most recent in a series of attempts by Congress to investigate prediction markets and bring insider trading under control.

In letters sent Friday to Polymarket’s Shayne Coplan and Kalshi’s Tarek Mansour, Comer demanded clarity on how the platforms handle identity verification, enforce geographic restrictions and flag anomalous trading activity.

Prediction markets, which surged in popularity in recent years, have drawn scrutiny from federal and state lawmakers and regulators, who worry the platforms are ripe for exploitation by bad actors with national security clearances.

Prediction market volumes could peak to roughly $1 trillion by 2030, as the sector evolves from niche wagering into broad-based “information markets” spanning sports, crypto, politics and the economy, according to a Wall Street broker Bernstein report in April. Volumes hit $51 billion last year and could reach about $240 billion in 2026.

The House probe follows a heated U.S. Senate Commerce Committee hearing on Wednesday, where lawmakers from both parties heavily scrutinized prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Crypto.com. Senate Commerce Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) blasted the industry for enabling cheating scandals across major sports leagues, warning that the opportunity to profit on event contracts tempts athletes and officials to manipulate outcomes. Meanwhile, Senator John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) accused the firms’ aggressive social media marketing of “preying on our young people” and fostering problem gambling.

Nicolas Vaiman, co-founder and CEO of onchain intelligence layer Bubblemaps, expressed deep concern over the national security implications of a new wave of insider trading in an interview with CoinDesk.

He warned that if those observing the predictions markets can spot irregular trades, so can enemies of the United States. He and his team found 80 bets on Polymarket with a 98% win rate, which he said is statistically impossible to achieve. “Not even luck can explain those wins.”

NEAR Launches Confidential Payments via Intents Protocol

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NEAR Launches Confidential Payments via Intents Protocol

NEAR Protocol has launched confidential payments on its Intents platform, enabling private cross-chain swaps between NEAR and ETH.

NEAR Protocol has activated confidential payments on its Intents platform, according to an announcement from the NEAR Intents team. The feature enables users to send NEAR tokens and receive ETH while maintaining transaction privacy, now live on the protocol’s interface.

The confidential payments capability represents an expansion of NEAR’s Intents protocol functionality, which focuses on user-centric transaction execution. The feature allows for private cross-chain value transfer without exposing transaction details on-chain, addressing privacy concerns in decentralized exchanges and multi-chain swaps.

Intents protocols on NEAR aim to improve transaction routing and execution efficiency while simplifying the user experience for complex blockchain operations. The addition of confidential payments suggests growing emphasis on privacy-preserving mechanisms within NEAR’s ecosystem as it competes with other Layer 1 blockchains offering similar privacy features.

Sources: NEAR Intents (X/Twitter)

Space X IPO Is ‘Bad News’ for Tech Stocks: But What About Bitcoin?

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Space X IPO Is ‘Bad News’ for Tech Stocks: But What About Bitcoin?

Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company SpaceX is planning a $75 billion IPO in June, which could make it the largest near-term public listing with a major Bitcoin treasury.

Key takeaways:

  • A Nasdaq 100 fast entry could expand Bitcoin exposure among the top mega-cap stocks, including Tesla.
  • The IPO may pressure tech stocks as passive funds sell existing Nasdaq names to buy SpaceX, which may prove bearish for Bitcoin.

SpaceX IPO set to increase Nasdaq’s exposure to Bitcoin

SpaceX disclosed 18,712 BTC in its recent S-1 filing, worth roughly $1.45 billion, making it the largest known Bitcoin holder among companies preparing for, or recently filing for, a public listing.

Source: SpaceX’s S1 Filing

Under Nasdaq’s newer “fast entry” rules, mega-cap IPOs can enter the Nasdaq 100 within 15 trading days, meaning SpaceX could quickly become one of the index’s largest constituents if its valuation lands near the $1.75 trillion–$2 trillion range after the $75 billion IPO.

As a result, Bitcoin exposure inside the Nasdaq 100 may expand beyond Tesla.

The electric carmaker already holds 11,509 BTC on its balance sheet. SpaceX, with 18,712 BTC, would give the Nasdaq 100 a second Elon Musk-linked mega-cap company with direct Bitcoin exposure.

“With the SpaceX IPO, the Mag 7 will become the Mag 8,” said Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, while referring to the elite group of mega-cap tech stocks, namely Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla.

He added:

“25% of the Mag 8 will have Bitcoin on their balance sheet.”

Bitcoin still faces downside risks

SpaceX IPO may be “bad news for tech stocks,” according to analyst Nic Puckrin.

“If it’s added to the Nasdaq 100 in a ‘fast entry’, passive funds have to buy it & sell other stock,” Puckrin said in a Friday post, adding:

“The higher SpaceX goes, the more they buy of it and sell of others. It’s going to act like a massive capital vacuum.”

Puckrin based his outlook on JPMorgan estimates showing that Nvidia could face more than $20 billion in passive outflows if SpaceX enters the Nasdaq 100.

JPMorgan projections for rebalancing outflows from passive investors. Source: Financial Times/Nic Puckrin

Apple could face roughly $16 billion in estimated passive outflows, with Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta and Tesla also likely to serve as funding sources for the SpaceX rebalance.

Bitcoin has traded closely with mega-cap tech for most of 2026.

As of Friday, BTC’s 30-day rolling correlation with the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS), which tracks the Mag 7 stocks, stood near +0.81.

BTC/USD vs. MAGS correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView

For traders, that means BTC has recently moved in the same direction as major tech stocks more often than not.

So, if the SpaceX rebalance pressures Nvidia, Apple, Tesla and other large tech names, Bitcoin may also face short-term downside risk as investors reduce exposure to the broader risk-on trade.

How low can BTC price go?

On-chain metrics show Bitcoin’s apparent demand has dropped to its lowest in four months, which may lead to months of consolidation.

That weak demand backdrop also lines up with BTC’s current technical structure. Since February, Bitcoin has been moving inside an upward-sloping bear flag, a pattern that often forms during a pause in a broader downtrend.

For now, BTC’s immediate downside target sits around the $73,000–$74,000 range, near the flag’s lower trendline. A rebound from that area could send the price back toward the flag’s upper boundary near $85,000.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Related: Bitcoin liquidity balance hints at developing rally toward $80K

The flag setup could open the door to a deeper decline toward $56,000, based on the pattern’s measured move, if BTC closes decisively under the lower trend line.

Trump Media moves another $205M in Bitcoin as losses on crypto bet swell to $455M

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Trump Media moves another $205M in Bitcoin as losses on crypto bet swell to $455M

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), the parent company of Truth Social, has transferred another 2,650 bitcoin BTC$77,380.63 to Crypto.com in a move that is likely to intensify scrutiny of the company’s struggling cryptocurrency strategy.

At current market prices, the transfer is worth roughly $205 million, with bitcoin trading at approximately $77,341 per token. Blockchain data shows the deposit occurred during late U.S. evening hours, according to Lookonchain, marking the latest significant movement in the company’s digital asset holdings.

Trump Media originally purchased 11,542 BTC for approximately $1.37 billion at an average acquisition price of $118,522 per bitcoin. The latest transfer follows an earlier move four months ago, when the company shifted out 2,000 BTC valued at roughly $175 million at the time, with bitcoin trading near $87,378.

Following the newest transaction, Trump Media is now estimated to be down roughly $455 million on its bitcoin holdings as the cryptocurrency continues to trade well below the company’s average purchase price.

The latest crypto transfer comes just days after Trump Media withdrew its application for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund, raising fresh questions about the company’s ambitions in the increasingly crowded crypto investment market. ETF analysts said the decision appeared to be driven less by structural or regulatory concerns and more by deteriorating economics across the spot bitcoin ETF sector.

The company’s financial results have also come under pressure from its aggressive cryptocurrency positioning. In May, Trump Media reported a staggering first-quarter net loss of $405.9 million on just $871,200 in revenue, widening sharply from a $31.7 million loss reported during the same period a year earlier.

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