This is why the most exposed institutional holders have been waiting. They are waiting for the coordination work to happen, which a research grant does not accomplish. The work needs an actor with the standing to convene the protocol communities, the custodians, and the regulators who must move together. No funded entity has taken on that role at the scale Bitcoin requires.
The geopolitical race
Government funding accelerated the offense. Every dollar that compounds into quantum hardware compresses the defense’s runway.
The day after the U.S. announcement, Emmanuel Macron committed €1 billion to France’s quantum strategy and called for Europe to “change the scale” of investment, naming the U.S. and China as its competitors.
China had already routed roughly $17.5 billion through three regional venture funds before the U.S. announcement landed; the U.S. move now gives Beijing the political cover to authorize another round. This is what a three-way industrial-policy race looks like, and it just compressed everyone’s planning horizon, whether they were ready or not.
What has to happen now
A serious response begins with coordinated migration work, started before the offense capability matures, because the migration has a long tail, and the runway just got shorter.
What is different about the post-quantum case is the scale of the coordination challenge. Bitcoin is uniquely exposed: any address that has ever spent funds has its public key sitting onchain in the clear, forgeable the moment elliptic curve cryptography breaks, with no way to recall it.
Latest developments: Kalshi’s launch of CFTC-regulated crypto perpetuals has reignited a long-running debate over financial market definitions.
John Lothian and Kalshi’s Udesh Jha joined The Policy Protocol to debate this topic.
John Lothian, publisher of John Lothian News, argued that perpetual contracts resemble swaps because they involve recurring bilateral cash-flow payments through funding-rate mechanisms.
Udesh Jha, Kalshi’s head of exchange analytics, countered that perpetuals function like futures because they are exchange-traded, centrally cleared and designed to track underlying spot markets.
The debate follows the recent approval and launch of crypto perpetuals on Kalshi under CFTC oversight.
The disagreement: Both sides view the same product through different regulatory lenses.
Lothian said perpetuals differ from traditional futures because funding-rate payments create ongoing cash flows between market participants, a feature he associates with swaps.
Jha argued that funding rates merely make financing costs explicit rather than embedding them in futures prices, making perpetuals a more efficient version of existing futures markets.
According to Jha, perpetuals also eliminate the need for traders to roll positions into new contract months, reducing friction and costs.
Why it matters: The classification could determine who can access the products and under what rules.
Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, declared Friday that the crypto market has seen its cycle low, with Bitcoin’s recent dip to approximately $59,000 marking the bottom of the latest downturn — a 53% drawdown from its October all-time high of $126,000.
“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto spring,” Kendrick wrote in a Friday note, adding, “I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices for the cycle.”
Bitcoin had recovered to around $64,000 at the time of Kendrick’s note, representing a roughly 5% gain over the prior week. The bank maintains a $100,000 price target for Bitcoin by year-end — projections it first issued in February.
SpaceX IPO drains crypto liquidity — then frees it
One of the two primary catalysts Kendrick cited is the historic Nasdaq debut of Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which priced its $75 billion IPO at $135 per share under the ticker SPCX on June 12.
Shares opened sharply above their IPO price, gaining roughly 20% on debut day. Kendrick argued that a significant portion of recent Bitcoin ETF outflows — totaling more than $5.72 billion since the second week of May, among the sharpest “since inception” — was driven by investors liquidating crypto positions to secure SpaceX allocations. With the IPO now live, that specific selling pressure may lift, he said.
The overlap between crypto and SpaceX demand was already playing out in real time. On Hyperliquid, perpetual contracts for SpaceX (SPCX) had accumulated over $240 million in open interest and $220 million in 24-hour volume ahead of the debut — ranking it as the eighth-largest asset on the platform.
Iran is a wildcard
The second catalyst involves geopolitics. A potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, timed ahead of next week’s G7 summit, could reduce pressure on global oil supplies that have remained tight since Middle East hostilities began.
Lower oil prices would subsequently cool elevated U.S. Treasury yields — which have weighed on risk assets like crypto by making risk-free government debt more attractive.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell roughly 1.5% on Friday to around $85–$86 per barrel. However, the peace deal narrative remained fragile.
President Trump stated Thursday that a breakthrough could come this weekend, only to later post on Truth Social that the deal made public was not what had been agreed, warning Iranian officials to “get their act together” — adding uncertainty to the macro outlook.
Three bitcoin price signals to watch
Kendrick outlined three confirmation signals that would validate his call. First, he is watching for Strategy to announce an additional Bitcoin purchase on Monday, as CEO Michael Saylor’s buying history has served as a reliable demand signal for institutional appetite.
Second, he is expecting U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs to return to net-positive daily inflows on Friday.
Third, he wants to see continued declines in global oil prices as the Iran diplomatic situation evolves.
If all three materialize, Kendrick’s crypto spring thesis gains its clearest validation yet — suggesting institutional and macro forces are finally aligning to push Bitcoin back toward the bank’s $100,000 year-end target.
The cryptocurrency market reached its definitive bottom for the currency cycle, Standard Chartered Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick said in a note on Friday.
The cycle low is now locked in at $59,000 for bitcoin, a 53% drop from its Oct. 6 all-time high of $126,000, according to Kendrick.
“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring, he said.
CoinDesk data shows bitcoin touched as low as $59,375 on June 5 in the evening, around 18:00 UTC. At the time of writing, bitcoin hovered just shy of $64,000.
Kendrick, who has $4,000 ether and a $100,000 bitcoin price target by the end of this year, identified two core drivers on Friday that support this market turnaround.
First, recent weeks saw some of the sharpest spot bitcoin ETF selling since inception. Total redemptions exceeded $5.72 billion since the second week of May. He also noted that ETF holders have anecdotally been liquidating their positions to free up cash to participate in the SpaceX initial public offering (IPO).
Elon Musk’s SpaceX shares began trading on Nasdaq at around $150 on Friday and are now about 26% above their IPO price.
SpaceX shares opened at $150 on Friday before rising to $162, marking a strong start to one of the most closely watched stock market debuts in recent years.
The aerospace and satellite internet company priced its initial public offering at $135 per share on Thursday. SpaceX sold 555.6 million shares, raising $75 billion in what stands as the largest IPO ever.
Bitcoin BTC$63,849.74 was roughly flat at $63,400, while AI-related crypto stocks saw modest gains.
Trading under the ticker SPCX on Nasdaq, the company had been valued at roughly $1.8 trillion based on the IPO price.
The debut gives public investors their first chance to own shares in a company that has reshaped the commercial space industry through reusable rockets and built one of the world’s largest satellite networks through Starlink. The satellite internet business has become a major source of growth, serving customers in remote areas where traditional broadband can be difficult to access.
SpaceX generated about $19 billion in revenue last year from launch services, government contracts and Starlink operations.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX launched trading on the Nasdaq today under the ticker SPCX — and it didn’t arrive empty-handed.
The company officially entered the public Bitcoin treasury leaderboard as the 8th largest holder with 18,712 BTC, a position that had been building for years before its historic IPO debut confirmed the full size of the stash.
SpaceX’s S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission first disclosed the 18,712 BTC position back in May, valued at approximately $1.29 billion at the time of filing.
The total cost basis was reported at $661 million — an average acquisition price of roughly $35,324 per coin — suggesting the company began accumulating Bitcoin in late 2023 or earlier. At today’s prices near $63,000, the position is worth approximately $1.19 billion.
The disclosure somewhat surprised the market. Blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence had previously tracked SpaceX’s holdings as low as 6,095 BTC, and the BitcoinTreasuries.net May 2026 Corporate Adoption Report noted that its pre-IPO private estimate stood at just 8,285 BTC.
The actual confirmed figure — more than double those estimates — made SpaceX’s reveal the second-largest Bitcoin treasury disclosure of May, trailing only Strategy’s 25,404 BTC in monthly purchases and accounting for more than one-third of all public treasury growth before sales.
“We expect SpaceX to rank among the top ten publicly traded Bitcoin treasuries after its anticipated June 12 IPO,” BitcoinTreasuries.net wrote in its May report — a forecast that has now materialized.
The live leaderboard, updated as of June 11, confirms SpaceX at rank #8, slotting in just behind Strive (19,032 BTC at #7) and just ahead of Coinbase Global (16,492 BTC at #9).
SpaceX shares debut higher than initial pricing
The IPO itself is historic, even without the Bitcoin angle.
SpaceX priced its shares at $135 on June 11, raising roughly $75 billion and valuing the company at about $1.75 trillion.
Reports now indicate the stock could debut at $171 per share with other reports saying $155 a share. At that price, SpaceX’s valuation would climb to approximately $2.2 trillion, potentially making Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire.
The listing, led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, ranks as one of the largest stock market debuts in U.S. history, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion IPO in 2019.
The timing of SpaceX’s entry into the public crypto arena is notable given broader market headwinds. Bitcoin has shed more than 50% from its all-time high above $126,000, hovering around $64,000 in recent sessions, with spot Bitcoin ETFs bleeding $2.26 billion in outflows over two weeks.
Still, SpaceX’s Bitcoin position appears to be a long-term balance-sheet allocation rather than a trading posture. The S-1 stated: “The Company has ownership of and control over its digital assets, which consist of Bitcoin, and utilizes, and expects to continue to utilize third-party custodians to hold its Bitcoin.”
Analysts at Grayscale noted that SpaceX is poised to become the most valuable public company holding Bitcoin by market capitalization — even as Strategy remains the largest by coin count with over 843,000 BTC.
Latest developments: VanEck recently launched the first U.S. spot BNB ETF, trading under the ticker VBNB on Nasdaq.
The fund gives investors exposure to BNB through traditional brokerage accounts.
VanEck Director of Digital Assets Product Kyle DaCruz said the firm focuses on blockchains with measurable adoption rather than purely technical promises.
The ETF has attracted roughly $2 million in assets since launch, according to DaCruz.
DaCruz joined CoinDesk’s Jennifer Sanasie and Bloomberg’s James Seyffart on Public Keys.
Why it matters: VanEck argues BNB has already achieved the user adoption many crypto projects are still pursuing.
DaCruz said BNB Chain has 33 million monthly active users and 2.1 million daily active users.
He cited roughly $100 billion in monthly stablecoin transfer volume and $16 billion in stablecoins minted on the network.
The firm’s investment thesis centers on identifying chains with active users and economic activity rather than what DaCruz called “ghost chains.”
Reading between the lines: VanEck is increasingly emphasizing blockchain revenue as a key metric for investors.
DaCruz said advisors are becoming less interested in technical distinctions between blockchains and more interested in sustainable business models.
He described BNB and Hyperliquid as examples of “revenue chains” generating tangible economic value.
According to DaCruz, BNB generates roughly $160 million in annual revenue.
Bitcoin (BTC) miners are back under pressure as data hints that a new buying opportunity is now here.
Key points:
Bitcoin miners are in the “capitulation” phase of the current bear market, data suggests.
A trader argues that there is no “clearer sign” to add BTC exposure as a result.
Bitcoin miners are now operating on sub-5% margins.
Trader on miner data: No “clearer sign” to buy Bitcoin
In an X post on Thursday, pseudonymous trader Killa warned that miners were “capitulating” based on price versus difficulty.
“You literally have miners capitulating, a signal that has historically marked the perfect time to accumulate,” they wrote.
“There isn’t a clearer sign to start accumulating $BTC.”
Bitcoin miner capitulation chart. Source: Bitbo
A chart from onchain analytics platform Bitbo shows that the current spot price relative to the last long-term mining difficulty low is punishing miners’ profitability.
This dedicated “miner capitulation” chart is now firmly in the red, repeating a pattern seen in previous Bitcoin bear markets.
In a separate forecast, Killa suggested that Bitcoin’s next bear-market low is still to come.
“Legacy markets likely correct at some point this year and mark the final pivot low for Bitcoin,” they told X followers.
“This has been the case for every cycle so far, and I see no reason to think this one will be any different.”
BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 chart. Source: Killa/X
Miners reflect “long-term value opportunities”
In X analysis this week, Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, revealed Bitcoin miners are on the edge.
“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost. Miners are now just breaking even on average,” he reported.
An accompanying chart compares the current BTC spot price with both the production and electrical cost. Both are important for miners, as they reflect overall profitability and, in turn, warn of any capitulatory selling.
Capriole currently puts production cost at around $61,200, with electrical cost $48,965. This gives a “miner margin” of 4.67% — near two-year lows seen at the start of June.
One argument Bankman-Fried advanced was that the funds he misappropriated were in investments that would eventually grow.
“As the district court recognized, any contention that Bankman-Fried lacked an intent to defraud because he intended to eventually repay his customers was legally misleading and prejudicial because the wire fraud statute encompasses temporary misappropriation of money or property,” the ruling said.
The panel reiterated this argument later on: “Whether the assets purchased by Bankman-Fried appreciated in value is irrelevant as to whether he committed fraud,” the ruling said.
Bankman-Fried’s team tried to argue that FTX was a margin futures trading platform, and therefore customers should have expected that they might lose some access to their funds.
“We are unpersuaded,” the ruling said. “The fact that some FTX customers opted into margin trading, and thus temporary deprivation of their money, is beside the point. Some opted into margin trading, some did not. No one opted into having their money transferred under false pretenses to Alameda.”
The panel’s ruling similarly supported Judge Kaplan’s actions throughout the trial.
The ruling matches the reception Bankman-Fried’s team saw from the panel of judges during the hearing last November, when the three-judge panel repeatedly interrupted and questioned attorney Alexandra Shapiro, who is representing Bankman-Fried.
