Home Blog Page 135

‘Peirce Out’: A Decade of Dissent

0

She arrived at the SEC in 2018 as a Republican commissioner with light crypto baggage and left this week as the regulator whose quotes had narrated the industry’s regulatory story. A retrospective on eight years of dissent.

Hester Peirce delivered her farewell remarks at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday and called the speech “Peirce Out.” She is leaving Washington after nearly thirty years for a teaching post at Regent University School of Law in Virginia Beach in November. Her second commissioner term expired in June 2025; she had been serving in a holdover capacity since.

Peirce arrived at the Commission on January 11, 2018, at a moment when crypto was both very large and almost entirely unregulated. Bitcoin had just printed an all-time high. Initial coin offerings had attracted billions of dollars the previous year, and Chairman Jay Clayton had issued a public statement on cryptocurrencies and ICOs the month before Peirce was sworn in, warning that “by and large, the structures of initial coin offerings that I have seen promoted involve the offer and sale of securities.” The SEC had already begun a first wave of enforcement actions against ICO issuers but had not articulated how, or whether, decentralized networks could come into the regulatory perimeter. Peirce inherited that gap and would spend eight years describing it.

She came to the role with the resume of a securities-law institutionalist who happened to be deeply skeptical of how the institution operated. A Case Western Reserve economics undergraduate and a Yale Law graduate, she clerked for Judge Roger Andewelt on the U.S. Court of Federal Claims, practiced at WilmerHale, then worked as a staff attorney in the SEC’s Division of Investment Management before serving as counsel to SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins during his 2002-2008 term. She left for the Senate Banking Committee under Ranking Member Richard Shelby, then conducted financial-regulation research at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University until her own commissioner appointment. Atkins, the colleague she had served two decades earlier, would later be confirmed as her chair.

The Crypto Mom Moment

The label arrived in her first summer. On July 26, 2018, the Commission rejected the Winklevoss brothers’ second application for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Peirce dissented in writing, in language that would become her signature register.

“I reject the role of gatekeeper of innovation,” she wrote in her dissent, “a role very different from (and, indeed, inconsistent with) our mission of protecting investors, fostering capital formation, and facilitating fair, orderly, and efficient markets.” Investors, she added, “are generally better judges about these things than we are.” She posted the dissent to her then-young X account that afternoon with a one-line caption.

Crypto Twitter christened her Crypto Mom within hours. The moniker stuck because the dissent did something her colleagues’ approvals had not: it located the agency’s bitcoin posture inside a recognizable framework about regulatory humility. The Winklevoss order had rejected the ETP on market-integrity grounds. Peirce’s dissent argued the agency was applying a merit standard it did not apply to other commodity-based products. The two views would frame the Commission’s spot-bitcoin debate for the next five and a half years.

The dissent also began Peirce’s career-long practice of attaching wordplay titles to her statements. “Kraken Down,” “Outdated,” “Out, Damned Spot!”, “Rendering Innovation Kaput,” “Dealer, No Dealer?”, and “Peirce Out” were all hers. Industry counsel learned to read SEC speech indexes for her name not just for substance but for tone.

Safe Harbor That Wasn’t

If the Winklevoss dissent was Peirce’s diagnosis, the Token Safe Harbor was her treatment plan. On February 6, 2020, in a Chicago speech delivered at the Blockress conference, she proposed Securities Act Rule 195, a three-year grace period during which crypto network developers could distribute tokens without registering the offering as a securities sale, provided they met disclosure and good-faith decentralization conditions. The speech opened, characteristically, with a long anecdote about being stranded with an empty gas tank on a rainy night in New Jersey. The road-trip metaphor would become a recurring Peirce device, surfacing again five years later when she titled her opening statement as Crypto Task Force chair “The Journey Begins.”

The speech was unusual for what it conceded. “The fear of running afoul of the securities laws is real,” Peirce told the audience. “Given the SEC’s enforcement activity in this area, these fears are not unfounded.” The acknowledgement, from a sitting commissioner, that the agency’s own posture was deterring legitimate development was a position no Chair had taken.

The proposal had a difficult timing. The SEC had filed SEC v. Telegram the previous October over the TON token sale, won an injunction halting the offering in March 2020, and would file SEC v. Ripple in December. Each of those cases pressed the opposite view: that the Howey investment-contract test, applied case by case, was the right framework. Peirce updated her proposal as Safe Harbor 2.0 on April 13, 2021, adding semi-annual disclosure updates and an exit-report requirement. “Now, as a new Chairman is coming into the SEC with a new agenda,” she wrote, “is the perfect time for the Commission to consider afresh how our rules can be modified to accommodate this new technology in a responsible manner.”

The new Chairman was Gary Gensler. The Commission never put Rule 195 on its rulemaking agenda. The proposal became, for the next five years, the cleanest counterfactual that industry counsel could point to.

Five Years of Dissent

Gary Gensler took the Chair on April 17, 2021, four days after Peirce released Safe Harbor 2.0. The two arrived at the crypto question with opposite priors. Gensler, in his first major crypto speech at the Aspen Security Forum that August, said the bluntest version of his view: “Right now, we just don’t have enough investor protection in crypto. Frankly, at this time, it’s more like the Wild West. This asset class is rife with fraud, scams, and abuse in certain applications.” He told the audience that many tokens “may be unregistered securities” and that the Commission would use the Howey test plus enforcement to bring them in. Peirce had, two years earlier, used a different image for the same regulatory landscape.

The two postures collided steadily. On March 31, 2022, the SEC’s accounting staff issued Staff Accounting Bulletin 121, which required public companies that custodied crypto for users to record a corresponding liability on their balance sheet at fair value. Banks would, in practical effect, find crypto custody capital-prohibitive. Peirce dissented in a statement titled “Response to Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121.” “SAB 121 is yet another manifestation of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s scattershot and inefficient approach to crypto,” she wrote. The bulletin had circumvented the formal rulemaking process and bound regulated entities through staff interpretation. Congress passed a resolution to overturn it in May 2024 that President Biden vetoed; SEC staff finally rescinded it in January 2025 under the new administration.

The next flashpoint was Wahi. In July 2022, the SEC charged a former Coinbase product manager and his associates with insider trading on the Coinbase exchange. To support the charge, the complaint identified nine of the traded tokens as securities. None of those tokens’ issuers had been registered, charged, or notified that their tokens were so categorized. The Commission had labeled nine projects securities by litigation footnote.

Peirce’s clearest articulation of the worldview difference came a month before, in a June 2022 speech titled “On the Spot.” “Enforcement actions short-cut the regulatory process,” she said. “A preferable approach would have been, once we identified crypto lending as implicating the securities laws, to commence a rulemaking or invite crypto lenders and other members of the public to come in and discuss the appropriate path forward.” She returned to this argument across the next three years, almost verbatim, against every major enforcement action.

Then FTX collapsed. The November 2022 implosion of Sam Bankman-Fried’s exchange was, by any reading, the strongest argument for the Gensler position. Yet Peirce, two months later, in a speech at Duke titled “Outdated,” held the same line: the framework the agency had used pre-FTX was the wrong one, and FTX did not retroactively make enforcement-only the right answer. She framed the SEC’s response as the same misdiagnosis with more urgency. The institutional momentum after FTX was the opposite. Through 2023, the Commission filed enforcement after enforcement against U.S. crypto businesses, with Peirce dissenting in public each time.

The Kraken settlement on February 9, 2023 produced the dissent that became her best-known. Kraken shut down its U.S. retail crypto staking service and paid a $30 million penalty for offering it without registration. Peirce’s statement, titled “Kraken Down,” was the sharpest of her tenure: “A paternalistic and lazy regulator settles on a solution like the one in this settlement: do not initiate a public process to develop a workable registration process that provides valuable information to investors, just shut it down.” She added: “Using enforcement actions to tell people what the law is in an emerging industry is not an efficient or fair way of regulating.” She posted the statement to her X account the same day.

Two months later, in April 2023, the Commission proposed amendments redefining “exchange” under the Exchange Act in language broad enough to sweep DeFi liquidity protocols into the registration regime. Peirce’s dissent was titled “Rendering Innovation Kaput.” Then, on consecutive days in June 2023, the SEC filed SEC v. Binance and SEC v. Coinbase, naming the two largest crypto exchanges serving U.S. users in the same week, on overlapping unregistered-securities theories. The double filing was treated by industry as the climax of regulation-by-enforcement.

The dissents accumulated. The Wahi complaint, the LBRY summary-judgment order, the Kraken settlement, the Exchange definition proposal, the Coinbase and Binance suits, and the Commission’s February 2024 dealer-rule expansion (which the rule’s text could plausibly extend to DeFi automated market makers) all proceeded over her objections. When LBRY announced it would not appeal and would wind down, Peirce filed a follow-on dissent in October 2023 titled “Overdue”: “This case illustrates the arbitrariness and real-life consequences of the Commission’s misguided enforcement-driven approach to crypto.” Her audience was not the room. The dissents read like memoranda to a future Commission that might want to know what the dissenter had said.

That posture had a cost. Peirce was, through 2022 and 2023, the only crypto-supportive voice on the Commission with a vote. The industry had no other regulator to appeal to inside the agency. Compliance counsel were left reading her dissents in lieu of guidance. Crypto firms that wanted to register, she argued at one point, had no usable path. The industry’s frustration with that gap was the political opening that eventually closed in November 2024.

Vindicated by a Court

The clearest substantive win of Peirce’s tenure came from a court. In August 2023, the D.C. Circuit ruled that the SEC’s denial of Grayscale’s spot-bitcoin ETP conversion was arbitrary and capricious, having approved bitcoin futures ETPs without adequately explaining why a spot product was different. Five months later, on January 10, 2024, the Commission approved 11 spot bitcoin ETPs in an omnibus order. Peirce voted yes.

Her concurring statement, titled “Out, Damned Spot! Out, I Say!”, was the I-told-you-so version of the Winklevoss dissent. “We squandered a decade of opportunities to do our job,” she wrote. “If we had applied the standard we use for other commodity-based ETPs, we could have approved these products years ago, but we refused to do so until a court called our bluff.” She added: “I am not celebrating bitcoin or bitcoin-related products; what one regulator thinks about bitcoin is irrelevant. I am celebrating the right of American investors to express their thoughts on bitcoin by buying and selling spot bitcoin ETPs.”

The ETF approval, the spot-ether ETP approval that followed four months later, and the Grayscale ruling that forced the underlying turn were the trio that closed the Clayton-Gensler era of categorical resistance to spot crypto products. Peirce had argued the position for six years. She did not get to claim the victory; she got to write the statement.

The Task Force

The political reset came in November 2024. President Trump won the election; Brian Armstrong, the chief executive of Coinbase, publicly endorsed Peirce for SEC chair the next day.

The job ultimately went to Paul Atkins, the same Atkins Peirce had served as counsel during his 2002-2008 commissioner tenure. Gensler announced his departure effective January 20, 2025; Acting Chairman Mark Uyeda, on January 21, announced a Crypto Task Force and named Peirce its leader. For the first time in seven years, Peirce was holding the pen rather than writing the dissent.

Her opening statement on February 4, 2025, titled “The Journey Begins,” framed the work in the same road-trip imagery she had used since the Safe Harbor speech. “On that last trip,” she wrote, “the Commission refused to use regulatory tools at its disposal and incessantly slammed on the enforcement brakes as it lurched along a meandering route with a destination not discernible to anyone. It took us a long time to get into this mess, and it is going to take us some time to get out of it.”

The next sixteen months delivered, by SEC standards, an unusual cadence of output. The Commission dismissed its civil case against Coinbase on February 27, 2025. Peirce’s accompanying statement called the earlier campaign “a large-scale regulation-by-enforcement initiative” that “harmed the American public, adversely affected the industry, and impeded the ability of the Commission’s skilled and dedicated professional staff to use their expertise as it was intended to be used.” Cases against Binance, Kraken, and others were unwound through the year. The Task Force issued staff statements clarifying that several categories of crypto activity, including memecoins and certain staking activities, sat outside the Commission’s securities jurisdiction. By December, the Division of Trading and Markets had issued a no-action letter clearing the Depository Trust Company to develop securities tokenization services.

The Atkins-era SEC also resumed a tokenization-focused rulemaking conversation under the banner of Project Crypto, with Peirce’s task force coordinating the substantive output.

What She Leaves

The Peirce that left this week was, by any honest accounting, more vindicated than thwarted. Spot bitcoin and ether ETPs trade. The enforcement actions she protested have been dropped or settled. The Task Force she chairs has become the locus of the agency’s crypto rulemaking, the direction she had argued for in 2020. Several proposals she has championed, including a federal innovation exemption for tokenized equities, are in active consideration.

Not all of it landed. The Token Safe Harbor itself, the proposal that made her a household name in the industry, was never adopted as a rule. The version of decentralization-graduation it described would have been one path through the Howey thicket; the path the Commission is now charting under Atkins relies on different mechanisms, including no-action relief and staff guidance. Some of her sharpest dissents, particularly on the SEC’s pay-to-play rule for investment advisers and on the Consolidated Audit Trail market-surveillance program, remain unresolved.

The most immediate consequence of her departure is institutional. With Peirce gone and Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw having left in January 2026, the Commission is left with two sitting members. The agency can operate at that number, but a two-person Commission has no modern precedent and would deadlock on contested rulemakings. The crypto-policy direction Peirce helped set in 2025 will be carried, in the short term, by an even thinner bench.

In her farewell, Peirce did not give the speech over to crypto. She catalogued unfinished work across the SEC’s full portfolio, from climate disclosure to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, and closed with a call for bipartisan ground on what she called the “boring basics.” But she did single out the past eighteen months of crypto work as an example of the Commission “tie[ing] our crypto regulatory and enforcement activities to the statutes we administer.” It is the line she had been arguing since 2018. The retrospective version reads less like a thesis than a verdict.

She is moving to the beach.

Bitcoin’s ‘Higher Floor’ Thesis Puts $40K Bottom in Play: Galaxy Research

0

New research from Galaxy Digital suggests that Bitcoin’s cycle low could form at higher price levels than previous bear markets due to the absence of speculation. The analysis places the potential bottom between $62,000 and the network’s realized price at $53,600.

Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn analyzed every Bitcoin cycle top and bottom and noted that the four-year cycle continues to track closely with BTC’s historical timing. The peak-to-trough declines have steadily narrowed across market cycles, falling from 85% and 84% in earlier periods to 77% in 2022 and 51% in 2026. 

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle peak-trough analysis. Source: Galaxy Research/X

Thorn argued that Bitcoin’s October 2025 top differed from previous cycle peaks. Only two of eleven traditional topping indicators flashed, while the widely followed Pi Cycle Top indicator failed to trigger for the first time. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, which compares market value to realized value, peaked at 2.29, compared with 2.93 to 5.91 in prior cycles. The analyst said, 

“The key insight: a calm top RAISES the floor. Because October’s top was so muted, the network’s cost basis sits at 43.7% of ATH, vs ~34%, 21%, and 17% in prior cycles.”

The report also found that several key bottoming signals are still absent. Only four of thirteen indicators have triggered so far, with most of the stronger signals yet to appear.

BTC cycle bottom indicator list. Source: Galaxy Research/X

Historical timing also points to the possibility of a bottom ahead. The previous cycle bottoms formed roughly 12 to 13 months after the market peak, while the current drawdown is about eight months old.

Thorn noted that, based on the current cost basis of $53,600, Galaxy estimates a base-case bottom range of $40,000 to $46,000. A deeper “washout scenario” points to $30,000-$37,000, while a shallower decline could hold near $51,000-$54,000. Despite the scenarios, Thorn also warns, 

“The catch: the floor can move. cost basis is reflexive. in a real panic, coins change hands at a loss and drag the average down. A 10-30% cost basis decline pulls the implied floor from ~$40k back toward $28k.”

Bitcoin bottom range based on realized price analysis. Source: Galaxy Research

Related: Big Tech crash, oil volatility rattles markets: Will Bitcoin hold above $60K?

Bitcoin demand still trends lower: CryptoQuant

Onchain analysis from CryptoQuant currently places Bitcoin inside a valuation zone historically associated with major bear-market lows. BTC recently traded near $59,000, leaving it roughly 9% above its realized price of $53,600. 

Bitcoin value zone based on realized price bands. Source: CryptoQuant

Past cycle bottoms, including the November 2022 FTX-driven sell-off, formed at or slightly below the realized price, suggesting the bottom range may again fall below the cost basis of $53,600 and overlap with Galaxy’s base projection between $46,000 and $40,000. 

Demand data paints a more cautious picture. CryptoQuant reported a combined weekly decline of 652,000 BTC across speculative futures demand and apparent spot demand, marking the sharpest contraction since January 2022. The firm’s one-year demand gauge has also turned negative, signaling fewer BTC buyers than a year ago.

Related: Bitcoin surfs SpaceX IPO at $64K as trader warns key BTC price support may crumble

LG Electronics is taking advertisements onchain. Arbitrum helped

0

Blockchain is no longer just a story of Wall Street banks and brokers leveraging the technology to optimize finance. Now, corporates are embracing distributed ledger to streamline business operations.

LG Electronics, the South Korean consumer electronics giant spanning TVs, laptops, and home appliances, with annual global revenue of over $60 billion, is building a blockchain-based advertising network and has chosen Arbitrum to help build it out.

LG told Fortune it has developed its own layer-2 blockchain network in collaboration with Arbitrum, a layer 2 protocol that enables low-cost, high-speed transactions on Ethereum.

LG’s move is part of a broader trend of corporations seeing operational potential in blockchain technology. Walmart has used the technology to transform food safety and reduce the time needed to trace a product through its supply chain to just 2.2 seconds, down from over six days. IBM has built blockchain-based supply chain solutions, while Microsoft has integrated blockchain into its Azure cloud platform for enterprise applications.

SpaceX’s crypto-traded IPO was sharply falling. It now points upward to a $2.4 trillion valuation

0

Blockchain-based prediction markets have recently emerged as the go-to-place for investors to bet on the SpaceX IPO, offering a decentralized alternative to traditional pre-IPO markets. Unlike private equity deals that require accreditation and high minimums, these onchain markets are accessible to retail investors with minimal capital, creating 24/7 price discovery on IPO odds.

At Wednesday’s level near $157, SPCX implied only a roughly 16% premium to the $135 IPO price, down from about 60% when the contract briefly traded near $216 in May. At $183, the implied premium is back near 36%.

Other shadow markets are now pointing the same way. Bloomberg reported Friday that IG International derivatives implied a SpaceX valuation of about $2.4 trillion, more than 35% above the $1.77 trillion valuation set by the IPO price.

Elsewhere, Polymarket traders put 70% odds on SpaceX closing its first trading day above $2 trillion.

The reversal comes as pre-IPO SPCX has shown caution in the market, falling by about 30% over the past few weeks. It suggested traders still expected SpaceX to trade above the offer price, but not at the explosive premium implied by the bookbuild. And Friday’s bounce now says that discount is closing.

Former SEC, CFTC Chair Gary Gensler argues that prediction markets don’t overrule state regulations

0

“To put the argument in the plainest real-world terms: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada would never have consented to or passively accepted legislation displacing an activity so critical to his state’s economy and politics by permitting sports betting only under CFTC auspices,” Gensler’s brief said.

Courts have so far been split; some have ruled in favor of prediction market providers, while others have ruled in favor of states.

The Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in April that the state of New Jersey could not shut down prediction markets, but panel of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals seemed more inclined to rule for the states.

It is likely that the Supreme Court will ultimately take up the issue, and Congress is also poking around.

Amicus briefs

The CFTC, currently helmed by Chair Mike Selig, filed its own amicus brief in this case last month, arguing that any event contract traded by a designated contract market overseen by the regulator is a swap.

Congress’ definition of a swap was broad and the language in the statutes allows for the CFTC-regulated firms to offer their products, the regulator’s filing said.

Genler’s brief disagreed.

“The CFTC now posits hedging theories for some sports bets that are at best only tenuously connected to reliable hedges of commercial risks. That connection, however, is crucial, as Congress included only those event contracts that hedge risks in a manner similar to a swap and are sufficiently ‘associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence,'” Gensler’s brief said.

Bitcoin Orderbook Structure Hints At Recovery To $70K

0

Bitcoin (BTC) is gaining buyers’ interest after setting a new yearly low at $59,000 last week. Order book data and liquidity suggest a rally is pending and more than $2 billion in short liquidity is concentrated near $65,000. BTC’s bid-ask ratio has remained positive since last Friday. 

The shift in positioning and sentiment also aligns with a bullish chart pattern targeting the $67,000–$70,000 range. 

BTC bulls attempt to regain control near support

Bitcoin’s recent rebound to $63,500 followed a bullish divergence between the price and the relative strength index (RSI) on the four-hour chart. The price printed a lower low during the early-June sell-off while the relative strength index (RSI) formed a higher low. The signal pointed to fading downside momentum before buyers stepped in.

BTC/USD, four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin is also trading within an ascending triangle pattern. A confirmed breakout may target the daily fair value gap between $67,500 and $70,500, an area of trading imbalance or liquidity gap left behind during the recent market correction. 

The order book activity supports the move. Data from Hyblock shows the bid-ask ratio remained positive at 0.05 after Bitcoin tagged its yearly low at $59,000 last Friday. The metric tracks aggressive buying and selling activity. A positive reading suggests buy-side market orders have been slightly outpacing sell-side orders.

BTC price, bid-ask ratio, spot CVD. Source: Hyblock

The cumulative volume delta (CVD) data adds another layer of support. Smaller cohorts (up to $10,000 and $100,000 orders) have shown improving buying activity with $53 million and $157 million, respectively, while the largest participants ($100,000-$10 million) have significantly reduced net selling pressure by $900 million. 

Crypto analyst Kripto Holder highlighted a $2.68 billion short-liquidity cluster near $64,600, calling it the primary upside liquidity pool. 

The analyst said Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $63,000 following renewed conflict in the US-Iran war adds weight to the recovery case. Spot CVD inflows also indicate demand from spot buyers.

Related: Metaplanet to form securities arm through Siiibo acquisition

BTC needs to reclaim $66,000 soon: Analyst

Market analyst PILTR noted that BTC’s long exposure has gradually increased over the past five days. The current positioning tracks 237 long levels against 128 short levels, creating an estimated $4 billion positive imbalance.

Those price levels closely align with analysis from crypto trader Ardi, who argued that Bitcoin is still trading within a bear pennant following its decline from $83,000 to $59,000. The analyst identified $64,000 and $66,000 as the two most important levels for the current recovery.

BTC/USD, four-hour analysis by Ardi. Source: X

According to Ardi, a move above $64,000 would clear both horizontal resistance and the pennant structure, giving Bitcoin additional room to the upside. The next hurdle sits near $66,000, a former major range support level that now acts as resistance. 

Reclaiming that area would strengthen the case for a move into the liquidity zone above the price and the unfilled fair value gap between $68,000 and $70,000.

However, PLTR also flagged weekend positioning as a near-term variable. The analyst noted that weekly profit-taking often creates opposing flows into weekends, especially after a sustained build-up in long exposure. 

Related: Bitcoin miner ‘capitulation’ comes as trader sees later 2026 bear-market bottom

CFTC Staff Give DCMs a Path to Convert Perpetual-Style Digital Commodity Futures Into True Perpetuals

0

CFTC staff issued release 9252-26 on Friday, giving designated contract markets a no-action path to convert existing perpetual-style digital commodity futures into true perpetuals, advancing the agency’s buildout of a regulated US crypto derivatives market.

CFTC staff issued a no-action letter Friday enabling designated contract markets to convert existing perpetual-style digital commodity futures into true perpetual futures, the latest piece of regulatory plumbing in the agency’s construction of a domestic crypto derivatives market.

The letter, release 9252-26, was announced via the CFTC’s official X account. It allows DCMs holding perpetual-style contracts, which carry multi-year expiry dates rather than an open-ended structure, to relist them as true perpetuals without triggering full re-certification under Regulation 40.3. The practical effect is that exchanges already running the funding-rate mechanism on long-dated futures can drop the expiry and migrate open interest into the genuine perpetual structure the CFTC approved in May.

The Conversion Path

A true perpetual futures contract has no expiry. Instead of converging on a settlement date, it uses a periodic funding rate, typically paid between long and short holders, to keep the contract price anchored to the spot price of the underlying asset. Perpetual-style futures, the workaround US venues had used since at least December 2025, mimic that economic function through a long-dated cash-settled contract, usually with a 10-year maturity and a daily funding adjustment.

Cboe announced bitcoin (PBT) and ether (PET) continuous futures planned to begin trading December 15, 2025, subject to regulatory review, with a 10-year expiration at listing and a daily cash adjustment. That structure gave institutional participants a regulated proxy, but it was not the native perpetual structure that dominates offshore crypto derivatives trading.

Today’s no-action letter bridges the two. DCMs can now submit conversion plans without going through the full 40.3 case-by-case review that the CFTC’s May 29 policy statement on perpetual contracts prescribed for new perpetual listings on asset classes beyond bitcoin.

Three Weeks of Rulemaking

The CFTC has moved in a concentrated burst. On May 29, the agency approved KalshiEX’s BTCPERP contract, the first true perpetual futures product to receive Commission approval and list on a domestic DCM. The order was accompanied by the policy statement setting the Regulation 40.3 review standard for future applicants and a separate action clearing Coinbase Financial Markets to route customers to its offshore Deribit affiliate’s perpetuals as foreign futures.

Three days later, Kalshi filed to list perpetual futures on 12 altcoins, following the bitcoin approval with the first broad altcoin perp slate submitted for Commission review under the new 40.3 framework.

Today’s conversion-path letter adds a fourth piece: relief for incumbents already operating perpetual-style products, so they do not have to build a parallel listing from scratch to offer the true perpetual structure.

The CME Counterpoint

CME Group CEO Terry Duffy offered the incumbent view, calling US crypto perpetual futures “a disaster waiting to happen,” citing excessive leverage and retail risk.

CME has not announced plans to list a perpetual contract. Duffy’s framing positions CME’s existing crypto futures suite, which uses standard expiry and lower leverage, as the more conservative alternative in the regulated US perp debate.

Will Bitcoin’s 200-Week Moving Average Ruin the BTC Price Comeback?

0

Bitcoin (BTC) hit $64,000 after Friday’s Wall Street open while analysis warned of “unreliable” BTC price support.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin hits local highs during the US trading session as US-Iran peace hopes offer modest risk-asset relief.
  • SpaceX looks set to launch the largest IPO ever witnessed,
  • BTC price concerns linger over the ability of a key trend line to hold as support.

Crypto, risk assets “shrug off” inflation headwinds

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD retaining gains as crypto and risk-asset markets surfed mixed signals over a US-Iran peace deal.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

At the time of writing, there was no official information about whether a deal would go ahead, with US President Donald Trump rebutting details from the Iranian side. 

“What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth,” he wrote in his latest post on Truth Social.

Source: Truth Social

Stocks opted to tread water at the US open on the day that SpaceX launched the biggest initial public offering (IPO) in history. Shares were slated to debut at $170 — $45 above the initial IPO price.

In a fresh analysis, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company said that markets now faced a combination of a strong labor market and high inflation.

“While equity markets seemed to shrug off inflation fears and the impact to valuations and monetary policy, better economic data is giving the average stock a reason to rally,” it summarized in its latest Mosaic Chart Alerts update. 

“While some of the air is being released from the massive rally in AI infrastructure stocks, laggards off the late March lows are turning up recently.”

S&P 500 chart data. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

As Cointelegraph reported, this week’s US inflation data set new multi-year records on the back of the US-Iran war and its impact on oil prices.

BTC price 200-week trend line in focus

While Bitcoin saw new local highs near $64,000, market participants remained highly cautious on the outlook.

Related: Bitcoin miner ‘capitulation’ comes as trader sees later 2026 bear-market bottom

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital was suspicious of a long-term trend line holding up price — the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at $62,025.

“Bitcoin is currently treating the 200-week SMA as support. But this SMA has historically proven to be an unreliable support, with price breaking down from it over time,” he warned X followers.

BTC/USD one-week chart with 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Rekt Capital saw additional friction coming from the fact that BTC/USD had dropped below old all-time highs from 2021.

“This deviation below old All Time Highs for Bitcoin tends to take months to fully develop to ultimately form a Bear Market bottom,” he commented.

“Though Bitcoin has deviated -14% below old ATHs thus far, this process is still technically ongoing and will be for a while.”

BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Sentiment falls to an eight-month low, and that has been a buy signal before

0

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse called it “the moment” for the industry, saying the industry deserved “the same rules and protections as every other asset class.”

Standard Chartered projected $4 billion to $8 billion in additional inflows into U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds if the bill passes. They have attracted roughly $1.4 billion since January, according to SoSoValue data.

The same discrepancy shows up on the XRP Ledger blockchain. Payment counts, automated market making activity and tokenized real-world assets all hit records this year while the token’s price kept falling. Pilot projects kept stacking up, including one that had Ondo, JPMorgan’s Kinexys, Mastercard and Ripple settling tokenized Treasuries across the ledger in seconds.

Santiment pointed to the same split, with development activity, ledger usage and institutional products advancing as social enthusiasm faded.

The exhaustion has a history. Santiment noted that some of XRP’s strongest rebounds came when the crowd was at its most disinterested, with discussion volume falling and commentary overwhelmingly negative, the same setup as now.

Sentiment readings are a contrarian tool and not a timer, however. The signal indicates that the sellers who talk have mostly stopped talking. Whether that marks a turning point depends on whether the demand that years of waiting were supposed to unlock finally shows up.

The U.S. government is betting $2 Billion on quantum computing, and the defense side can’t keep up

0

This is why the most exposed institutional holders have been waiting. They are waiting for the coordination work to happen, which a research grant does not accomplish. The work needs an actor with the standing to convene the protocol communities, the custodians, and the regulators who must move together. No funded entity has taken on that role at the scale Bitcoin requires.

The geopolitical race

Government funding accelerated the offense. Every dollar that compounds into quantum hardware compresses the defense’s runway.

The day after the U.S. announcement, Emmanuel Macron committed €1 billion to France’s quantum strategy and called for Europe to “change the scale” of investment, naming the U.S. and China as its competitors.

China had already routed roughly $17.5 billion through three regional venture funds before the U.S. announcement landed; the U.S. move now gives Beijing the political cover to authorize another round. This is what a three-way industrial-policy race looks like, and it just compressed everyone’s planning horizon, whether they were ready or not.

What has to happen now

A serious response begins with coordinated migration work, started before the offense capability matures, because the migration has a long tail, and the runway just got shorter.

What is different about the post-quantum case is the scale of the coordination challenge. Bitcoin is uniquely exposed: any address that has ever spent funds has its public key sitting onchain in the clear, forgeable the moment elliptic curve cryptography breaks, with no way to recall it.