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Bitcoin pops above $65,500 as the US-Iran deal sends oil sliding

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Bitcoin climbed to its highest level in nearly two weeks after the US and Iran reached a deal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, removing the energy-supply fear that had weighed on markets for months.

The token traded around $65,844 on Monday, up 2.1% over 24 hours, after touching a low near $63,722 in the early hours of Asian trading before the deal news broke, per CoinDesk data.

The move puts bitcoin about 9% above the sub-$60,000 low it hit last week, its weakest level since October 2024.

The rally was broad. Ether rose 2.5% to $1,721, solana gained 3.6% to $71 and XRP added 3.2% to $1.19. Hyperliquid’s HYPE was the standout, up 7.5% on the day to nearly $65. BNB and dogecoin both added more than 1%.

Brent crude slumped more than 4% toward $83 a barrel as traders unwound the geopolitical premium that had kept oil elevated since late February. Asian stocks jumped more than 3%, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 heading for a record close. S&P 500 futures were up 1.2%. The dollar fell against major peers.

Bitcoin shoots higher on Iran peace deal, with Strait of Hormuz set to open

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The US and Iran said they reached an interim agreement to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the deal to be signed in Switzerland on Friday.

The price of bitcoin has risen to $65,700, up 2% over the past 24 hours, and its highest level since the early June plunge.

The price of WTI crude oil has plunged nearly 5% to just under $81 per barrel, its softest level in about two months.

Nasdaq 100 futures are higher by 1.5% and S&P 500 futures are up 0.9%.

World Liberty Financial Pays UFC Freedom 250 Fighters in USD1 at White House

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Trump-backed World Liberty Financial funded a $250,000 Performance of the Night bonus pool at UFC Freedom 250, distributing the awards in its USD1 stablecoin on the White House South Lawn.

World Liberty Financial, the Trump family-backed crypto venture, funded a $250,000 fighter bonus pool at UFC Freedom 250 on Sunday, distributing the awards in its USD1 stablecoin on the South Lawn of the White House.

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) announced the arrangement on June 13: WLFI signed on as an official partner of the event and serves as presenting sponsor of the Performance of the Night bonuses. The awards are paid in USD1, World Liberty Financial’s U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin, and are separate from a $1 million CRO bonus pool funded by Crypto.com for Fight of the Night winners. World Liberty Financial announced the sponsorship on June 10 via its official X account.

The Bonus Structure

UFC Freedom 250, an outdoor mixed martial arts event held on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., featured two parallel bonus pools. Crypto.com sponsored a $1 million CRO pool for the Fight of the Night award, described by UFC CEO Dana White as the biggest bonus in the promotion’s history. World Liberty Financial contributed a separate $250,000 for Performance of the Night, distributed in USD1 rather than cash. According to post-event reports, Performance of the Night payouts reached $425,000 per fighter.

Zach Witkoff, co-founder of World Liberty Financial, framed the arrangement in settlement terms. “A victory in Washington should mean money in your pocket immediately, not when the bank opens,” he said. “USD1 makes U.S. dollars more accessible and faster than ever before.”

WLFI branding appeared inside the Octagon and across the event broadcast. The card streamed on Paramount+ to a global audience.

USD1 Context

USD1 is a U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial and backed by U.S. Treasuries and cash equivalents, with custody handled by BitGo. It carries a circulating supply of roughly 4.4 billion tokens and a market cap of approximately $4.4 billion, per CoinGecko. The stablecoin trades on Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain, Aptos, and Mantle.

World Liberty Financial was co-founded in 2024 by Donald Trump and his sons alongside Steve and Zach Witkoff. Trump holds the title of “Chief Crypto Advocate.” The Defiant has previously covered WLFI’s legal disputes with Justin Sun, including a defamation lawsuit and Sun’s counter-suit over frozen WLFI tokens.

Political Backdrop

UFC Freedom 250 was staged to mark President Trump’s 80th birthday and the United States’ 250th anniversary. Hosting a UFC event on White House grounds is unprecedented for the promotion.

Crypto.com served as the primary event presenter alongside RAM Trucks. UFC CEO Dana White announced the expanded bonus structure at a press conference at the Lincoln Memorial ahead of the event, describing the Performance of the Night pool as an additional incentive stacked on top of the Crypto.com Fight of the Night award.

The UFC has taken on an increasing number of cryptocurrency sponsors in the past two years. UFC Freedom 250 adds a presidential-family stablecoin to that roster, deployed on live television on White House grounds.

Crypto exchanges are morphing into stock brokerages to stop capital from fleeing to Wall Street

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A significant transformation is currently underway across the established cryptocurrency market. The top crypto exchanges are morphing into multi-asset financial platforms, breaking down the traditional barriers that once kept crypto and Wall Street completely apart.

Crypto exchange OKX rolled out 13 new “X-Perp” markets for European traders on Tuesday, giving retail users direct access to “Magnificent 7” tech stock futures, alongside major commodity indices like gold, silver, and crude oil. The platform also added perpetual markets for major index funds like the SPY and QQQ, enabling users to trade exposure to the largest U.S. equities outside standard market hours.

Exchanges like OKX are deliberately expanding their services to stop cash from leaving their platforms, while catering to everyday traders who now want to bet on more than just crypto.

Kraken, for example, rolled out 24-hour perpetual futures for synthetic U.S. stock tokens, offering non-U.S. retail traders up to 20x leverage on equities outside standard Wall Street operating hours. Onchain perpetual platform Hyperliquid also moved aggressively into TradFi, putting Wall Street on alert.

Retaining trader fees

Centralized exchange trading volumes recently dropped more than 11% to $4.61 trillion, hitting their lowest performance level since late 2024, according to CoinDesk Data’s April 2026 market reviews. “Retail participation across crypto has moderated, but the demand for trading has not disappeared,” said Behrin Naidoo, founder of Neutral DeFi Protocol. Naidoo, an alumnus of London Business School who previously managed global market strategies and fintech investments at J.P. Morgan, PwC, and RMH, told CoinDesk that the problem isn’t a lack of interest, but rather an infrastructure gap.

Bitcoin could crash to $48,000, if this historical pattern is triggered

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Bitcoin has a unique pattern, and it has held across every major bullish cycle since the cryptocurrency began trading near zero 16 years ago. This pattern suggests that prices could crash to at least $48,000.

The pattern works like this. Draw Fibonacci retracements from near zero – BTC began trading at $0.003 in February 2010 – to bull market peaks reached in June 2011, November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021.

The bear markets that followed these peaks saw prices crash well below the 61.8% retracement of the entire move from near zero to the bull peaks. This has happened every time, as seen in the charts below.

Four peaks, four subsequent bear markets and four breaks below the 61.8% level. No exceptions.

Now comes the current cycle. Bitcoin peaked above $126,000 earlier this year. The 61.8% retracement from near zero in early 2010 to that peak sits at $48,215. Bitcoin is trading around $64,000 today, still well above that level.

The pattern hasn’t triggered. But if it does, a crash to at least $48,215 is where the charts point.

Summer of crypto (regs): State of Crypto

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Last Tuesday’s House Ways and Means Committee hearing on digital asset tax bills was pretty straightforward. The members of the committee asked largely substantive questions, seemingly aimed at better understanding both how crypto taxes might work as well as what holes exist in current tax policy. There was no sniping at each other, no real pot shots at President Donald Trump and his family and no major arguments. At most, we had a few lawmakers question whether crypto is really an urgent issue amid current economic conditions.

In agency news, the CFTC published a proposal for better regulating prediction markets, giving the general public some time to weigh in, even as the various legal cases continue.

Why it matters

Crypto taxes are the next big issue after the market structure bill happens (if it happens, anyway). And while the hearing wasn’t exactly spicy, it did suggest that there is a lot of work to be done before crypto tax legislation can proceed through a markup and to the House floor.

The CFTC’s proposal to more closely regulate prediction markets is a first step in this process, and the public comments will be revealing.

Breaking it down

Tuesday’s hearing from the Ways and Means Committee saw lawmakers ask questions about the various discussion draft bills presented for the hearing, addressing the different aspects of the crypto tax debate. It was a remarkably conciliatory hearing, when contrasted with some of the other hearings the crypto industry has watched.

Aerodrome is turning liquidity into a prediction market with its biggest upgrade yet

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Since debuting on Base in 2023, Aerodrome has become one of the most widely known DEXs on the network by using a system that rewards token holders for directing liquidity incentives toward trading pools. The model helped solve one of DeFi’s longstanding problems: how to bootstrap liquidity for new assets and keep it from disappearing when incentives dry up.

Prediction market similarities

But the model has an inherent limitation, according to Cutler. Decisions are largely based on past performance.

Predictive Allocation seeks to flip that dynamic. Instead of rewarding participants for directing incentives toward pools that have already generated fees, the system encourages them to anticipate where liquidity will be needed next. Those who correctly identify future demand receive a greater share of the revenue generated by those markets.

“The liquidity is now moving in an anticipatory way ahead of where the market is,” Cutler said.

The concept borrows heavily from prediction markets, which use financial incentives to aggregate forecasts about future events. But unlike traditional prediction markets, participants aren’t merely speculating on an outcome.

“It takes that asymmetric upside and truth discovery and brings it into market creation and spot markets for the first time,” Cutler said.

The distinction is important. In a traditional prediction market, traders bet on events they cannot influence. Under Predictive Allocation, directing incentives toward a pool helps create the liquidity needed for that market to succeed. The prediction and the investment become the same action.

Ethereum Can Quantum-Proof Accounts for $0.07: Ethereum Researcher

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Ethereum could begin adding post-quantum protections to accounts for as little as $0.07, without waiting for a hard fork, according to the Ethereum Foundation’s Kohaku project lead Nicolas Consigny.

In a Saturday X post, Consigny shared a paper proposing a cheaper way for Ethereum users to protect their accounts against future quantum-computing threats. The approach adapts SPHINCS+, a post-quantum signature standard developed by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology, to work more efficiently on Ethereum.

Dubbed “SPHINCS-,” the proposal aims to reduce onchain verification costs without requiring a protocol change or precompile. Consigny described SPHINCS- as a bridge toward a future post-quantum signature system dubbed “leanSPHINCS,” which aims to further reduce verification costs through aggregation.

The proposal seeks to address the long-term risk of a quantum threat to Ethereum’s Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm with a cost-efficient solution that may be deployed before a dedicated hard fork is developed.

Signature scheme SPHINCs variant security degradation and onchain verification costs. Source: Ethresearch.ch

Related: Adam Back says Bitcoin’s post-quantum shift may reveal true Satoshi stash

Future quantum computing threats stirs crypto community

In April, post-quantum startup Project Eleven awarded a prize to researcher Giancarlo Lelli for using a quantum computer to break a 15-bit elliptic-curve key.

Bitcoin’s keys are 256 bits long, significantly larger than the 15-bit key Lelli managed to crack. He derived the private key from a public key paired to it, using a variant of Shor’s algorithm, a quantum computing technique that theoretically poses a threat to the type of cryptography used by Bitcoin.

According to Glassnode, about 1.92 million Bitcoin, representing nearly 10% of the total supply, are considered “structurally unsafe” in a future quantum attack scenario. Another 4.12 million BTC, or 20.6% of the supply, are classified as “operationally unsafe” due to key or address management practices.

Source: Glassnode

The analytics company estimates that the remaining 69.8% of the supply, or 13.99 million Bitcoin, remains unexposed to a quantum computing threat, broadly in line with Ark Invest’s March estimate that 65% of the supply was safe. 

Magazine: Bitcoin vs. the quantum computer threat — Timeline and solutions (2025–2035)

Japan’s Lower House Passes Bill Moving Crypto Under Securities Law, Opening Path to ETFs and 20% Tax Rate

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Japan’s lower house passed a bill amending the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act to regulate crypto like stocks, opening a path to regulated ETFs by 2027 and cutting the capital-gains tax from up to 55% to a flat 20%. Upper-house passage is pending; the reform is not yet law.

Japan’s lower house passed a bill on Thursday that reclassifies cryptocurrencies as financial instruments under the country’s securities framework, clearing a path to regulated spot ETFs and a flat 20% capital-gains tax.

The legislation amends the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA), shifting crypto out of the Payment Services Act and into the same legal framework that governs stocks, bonds, and investment trusts, according to Bloomberg. The bill heads next to the upper house, where passage is widely expected. One key caveat: the reform is not yet law.

The Structural Shift

Japan’s current crypto framework treats digital assets as payment instruments, which means they sit under a lighter disclosure and protection regime than traditional securities. Under the FIEA, crypto issuers would face the same disclosure obligations, custody standards, and insider-trading rules that apply to listed equities.

Representatives of the Tokyo Stock Exchange indicated that crypto ETFs could begin listing as early as 2027 once the framework is finalized. Japan’s major securities houses are already positioning: SBI Securities and Rakuten Securities have said they plan to offer crypto investment trusts once regulators finalize rules, with 11 additional firms including Nomura, Daiwa, and Mizuho indicating they would consider entering the market.

“We aim to foster more innovation by creating a sound trading environment,” Masato Yoshizawa, a representative from Japan’s Financial Services Agency, told Bloomberg.

Koichi Kano, Japan head at Singapore-based crypto market maker QCP Group, told Bloomberg the legislation provides “long-awaited clarity for market participants.”

Tax and Disclosure Changes

Under Japan’s 2026 Tax Reform Outline, crypto gains would be taxed at a flat 20%, replacing a progressive miscellaneous-income rate that can reach 55%. That tax change is expected to take effect in 2028. Matching the rate applied to equities and bonds closes a long-standing competitive gap that institutional managers have cited as a structural barrier to Japan’s crypto market.

Exchanges would face expanded disclosure requirements covering 105 tokens currently approved for domestic trading. Penalties for operating an unregistered crypto business would increase: the maximum prison sentence for unregistered sellers would rise from three years to 10 years.

Insider-Trading Rules

The bill extends insider-trading enforcement to crypto for the first time. Individuals or entities with access to material non-public information, including issuers, exchange operators, and anyone aware of pending listings, delistings, or major technical incidents, would face the same restrictions applied to listed equities.

Hinza Asif, president of the Asia Web3 Alliance, told Bloomberg that stronger enforcement measures “could help create a more trusted environment for participants entering the market.”

During FSA working-group meetings, some industry representatives warned that the regulatory burden may be excessive, noting that roughly 90% of domestic exchanges are operating at a loss. Some committee members described the proposals as “too heavy-handed” and urged the FSA to strike a balance between investor protection and market viability.

Stablecoins Carved Out

Stablecoins are excluded from the FIEA reclassification and remain regulated under the Payment Services Act as electronic payment instruments. The carve-out aligns with how Japan has separately developed its stablecoin infrastructure: earlier this week, MUFG, SMBC, and Mizuho announced plans for joint stablecoin transactions targeting live deployment during fiscal 2026.

What Comes Next

Implementation is targeted within roughly one year of the bill becoming law, pointing to fiscal year 2027 for the new FIEA regime to take effect. The 20% tax rate follows separately under the 2026 Tax Reform Outline and would activate in 2028.

When Japan’s cabinet approved the measure in April, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama framed it as expanding the supply of growth capital while ensuring market fairness, transparency, and investor protection. The upper house has not yet scheduled a vote.

SEC’s big swing to clear tokenization path isn’t likely to get resilience of full rule

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“It doesn’t have to be done as a rulemaking,” said SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, who has led much of the agency’s crypto work since the start of last year. In response to a question from CoinDesk, she said the SEC has exemptive authority that it routinely uses. “We can do it as a rule, but we don’t have to do it as a rule.”

In March, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins described the incoming policy as “an innovation exemption to facilitate limited trading of certain tokenized securities with an eye toward developing a long-term regulatory framework.” He said it would be “limited in time and scope, but long enough so that we can craft more durable rules that harness the full potential of these new technologies.”

More recently in May, he added: “I also think we should consider what a future-proofed framework may look like, which would take the form of notice-and-comment rulemaking and would address the ‘exchange’ definition as applied to onchain trading systems.”

CoinDesk canvassed the views of several lawyers who are former officials at the SEC, asking questions about the choice to put off formal rulemaking, and whether the interim work on this will hold up. Most agreed that the approach may not carry the highest force of SEC authority, but it’d still be difficult to put the toothpaste back into the tube if the next administration sees things differently.