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Where Is The Capital Going?

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Where Is The Capital Going?

Altcoin markets (excluding Ether (ETH)) recently saw $266 billion in net selling volume on centralized exchanges, the deepest reading since the metric began tracking spot demand in 2020.

Altcoins accounted for 51% of Binance futures trading volume on June 16, compared with 28.85% for Bitcoin and 20.20% for Ether, positioning the exchange as a leader in derivatives activity in 2026.

The divergence between record selling and dominant trading activity points to capital rotating within crypto and also into alternative exchange products.

Altcoin trading stays active despite outflows

Crypto analyst IT Tech noted that the one-year cumulative buy-sell difference for altcoins, excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), dropped to -$266 billion on June 16.

One-year cumulative buy-sell volume for altcoins. Source: CryptoQuant 

The current readings show that selling pressure has outweighed buying demand for an extended period, pushing the cumulative balance to a new low.

However, altcoin trading activity tells a different story. Data shows altcoins accounted for 51% of daily futures trading volume on June 16, compared with 28.85% for Bitcoin and 20.20% for Ether. Altcoins have led exchange trading volumes for most of 2025, aside from a brief period in February when Bitcoin overtook the sector.

Volume dominance between BTC, ETH, and altcoins. Source: CryptoQuant

The combination of elevated futures trading activity and deeply negative spot demand points to capital recycling within the altcoin market rather than fresh spot inflows. This shows investors continuing to trade altcoins, although aggregate spot purchases have not kept pace with the selling volume.

Related: BitGo courts crypto firms awaiting MiCA approval amid Binance licensing concerns

Crypto liquidity shifts beyond altcoins

Market analyst MorenoDV indicated that exchange stablecoin balances have changed little since December 2024. The exchange supply ratio for ERC-20 stablecoins has fluctuated between 0.40 and 0.46, meaning roughly 40% to 46% of circulating stablecoins have stayed on exchanges for more than a year.

Stablecoins (ERC20) exchange supply ratios. Source: CryptoQuant

During the same period, Bitcoin experienced price swings exceeding 50%, trading between $60,000 and $120,000. Binance held between 25% and 30% of the total stablecoin supply, accounting for more than half of exchange-held reserves. This indicates liquidity has stayed available, but capital deployment has become increasingly selective.

Part of the capital appears to be targeting traditional asset products offered by crypto exchanges. According to CryptoQuant, metals futures volume peaked at nearly $500 billion in March 2026, as gold and silver prices reached record highs. The trading activity in pre-IPO perpetual products expanded to $715 million in May and $2 billion in June, up from just $2 million in March.

Binance processed $10.3 billion in pre-IPO perpetual volume in June, roughly 20 times higher than the entire month of May, while controlling about 83% of the segment. Growth in metals, oil, equities, and pre-IPO contracts highlights how exchange users are increasingly allocating liquidity across a wider range of assets, with Binance continuing to hold the largest concentration of deployable stablecoin capital.

Related: Hyperliquid open interest surges 32% in week: Is $80 HYPE next?

Are Spot Buyers Coming Back?

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Are Spot Buyers Coming Back?

Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest bout of panic selling produced significantly smaller realized losses than those seen during the February correction. Realized losses peaked at $1.4 billion during the June decline, compared to $2.6 billion in February, while the buy-side liquidity on Binance strengthened above recent lows at $60,000, according to Glassnode. 

BTC realized drop 46% from February highs

Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-loss ratio has fallen into capitulation territory, signaling that loss-taking continues to outweigh profit-taking across the market. The 30-day smoothed ratio currently sits near 0.28, one of the lowest readings of the year.

However, the magnitude of those losses tells a different story. Bitcoin’s seven-day moving average realized loss peaked at $2.6 billion during February’s sell-off. The June decline reached $1.4 billion before cooling to approximately $558 million.

Bitcoin Realized Loss. Source: CryptoQuant

The gap between the two events highlights a notable shift in traders’ behavior. Fewer investors are choosing to sell at a loss despite another period of market stress, where BTC prices range near identical levels.

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. described the current episode as the second wave of panic selling in 2026. The analyst noted that realized loss data shows the latest capitulation is “almost twice as low” as February’s event.

Glassnode’s capital flow metrics also show pressure easing on the price. The realized cap, which measures the aggregate cost basis of all circulating Bitcoin, stands at $1.07 trillion. The metric has declined by 1.45% over the past 90 days, indicating a steady withdrawal of capital.

The realized cap’s seven-day change has narrowed to -0.18%, indicating that capital outflows have nearly stalled compared to Q1. 

Related: Bitcoin price sets $64.5K week-to-date low as Strategy selling worries return

Bitcoin spot orderbooks turn supportive

According to Glassnode, Binance’s spot orderbook depth imbalance has shifted decisively toward bids, with a ratio of 0.8, with buy-side liquidity exceeding resting sell orders by the widest margin since December 2025. The change signals a stronger demand to absorb supply during pullbacks rather than distribute into rallies.

BTC: spot orderbook depth imbalance. Source: Glassnode

At the same time, the derivatives positioning has become less aggressive. Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) on Binance recorded one of its largest daily reversals since April. Open interest shifted to -$620 million, from $258 million over the past 24 hours, marking a net reversal of nearly $878 million. 

For now, the strongest improvement is visible in spot liquidity. Glassnode added,

“Although this alone is insufficient to confirm a durable bottom, the emergence of strong buy-side depth suggests spot market participants are becoming more willing to defend current price levels.”

Related: Bitcoin is setting up ‘meaningful floors’ in $60K–$70K range: Analyst

Fidelity joins Wall Street’s race to manage stablecoin reserves

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Fidelity joins Wall Street’s race to manage stablecoin reserves

The GENIUS Act, signed into law last year, established the first federal framework for payment stablecoins in the United States. Among other requirements, issuers must hold reserves in cash, short-term Treasury securities and certain government money market funds.

The legislation has created an opportunity for traditional asset managers to offer regulated vehicles that stablecoin issuers can use to manage those reserves while generating yield.

Fidelity’s fund will invest in U.S. Treasury bills, notes and bonds with maturities of 93 days or less, cash, overnight repurchase agreements backed by Treasuries and other government money market funds that comply with the law.

“Fidelity has a longstanding history in fixed income and money markets, making us uniquely positioned to offer a money market fund for stablecoin issuers that is compliant with the new GENIUS-Act legislation,” said Robin Foley, Fidelity’s head of fixed income, in a statement.

While Fidelity’s announcement focused on reserve management, State Street framed its launch as part of a broader push into tokenized finance through partnerships with crypto firms such as Anchorage Digital and products designed for onchain liquidity management.

Fed Signals Possible Rate Hikes As Kevin Warsh Opens ‘New Chapter’ At Central Bank

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Fed Signals Possible Rate Hikes As Kevin Warsh Opens ‘New Chapter’ At Central Bank

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its June meeting, but signaled a shift toward tighter policy under new Chair Kevin Warsh, marking a decisive turn away from expectations of near-term easing.

The Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds rate unchanged at a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, in line with market consensus. The policy statement and updated projections, however, pointed to renewed concern over inflation and a growing willingness among policymakers to raise rates later this year.

Officials now expect the benchmark rate to reach 3.8% by the end of 2026, up from a 3.4% projection in March. Rate expectations for 2027 and 2028 also moved higher, signaling that restrictive policy may remain in place for longer than previously anticipated.

The shift comes as inflation pressures persist across the U.S. economy. The Fed now forecasts headline personal consumption expenditures inflation at 3.6% for 2026, with core inflation at 3.3%, both above prior estimates. 

Policymakers pointed to supply shocks tied to the Middle East conflict and elevated energy costs as key drivers.

“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty,” the Fed said in its statement, while reaffirming its commitment to restoring price stability.

Bitcoin’s price has dropped after the announcement, trading near $64,000.

Kevin Warsh takes the helm as Fed chair

The meeting marked Warsh’s first as Fed chair following his confirmation last month. His arrival appears to have influenced both tone and communication strategy. The post-meeting statement was shorter and omitted language that had previously suggested a bias toward rate cuts. 

All voting members supported the decision, with no dissent for the first time in a year.

Updated projections showed that nine officials now expect at least one rate increase by year-end. In March, none had forecast a hike in 2026. 

Futures markets moved in response, with traders pricing in a quarter-point increase by October and a high probability of a second move by early 2027.

Treasury yields rose following the announcement, with the two-year yield climbing to around 4.14%. Equities and crypto assets also reacted. Bitcoin fell from near $66,000 to around $64,000 before stabilizing, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 each dropped close to 1%, erasing earlier gains.

A ‘good family fight’

Warsh used his first press conference to frame the decision as part of a broader shift in how the Fed approaches policy and communication. He described the meeting as a “good family fight” and emphasized that the central bank is entering a “new chapter.”

He declined to provide forward guidance on the rate path and reiterated skepticism toward the Fed’s traditional use of projections. Warsh did not submit his own rate forecast, underscoring his long-standing criticism of the dot plot as a policy tool.

Instead, he signaled openness to changes in how the Fed interprets economic data. Warsh noted that many official indicators rely on survey-based methods that may lag real-time conditions. He suggested that alternative data sources and improved analytics could play a larger role in future policy decisions.

On the economic outlook, Warsh pointed to mixed signals on how restrictive current policy is. He cited weakness in housing as evidence of tight financial conditions, while noting that strength in broader markets complicates that assessment.

He also highlighted the growing impact of artificial intelligence on the economy, calling it one of the most significant structural shifts in decades. The Fed has established a task force to study how AI could affect productivity, employment, and the transmission of monetary policy.

The policy pivot comes amid political pressure for lower rates, though Warsh stressed the importance of central bank independence. President Donald Trump has called for easing in recent months, but has also stated that the Fed should act without direct influence from the White House.

For markets, the message from June’s meeting is clear: the Fed no longer sees a path toward imminent rate cuts. With inflation above target and growth holding firm, the risk of further tightening has returned to the forefront.

Congress Strikes Housing-Bill Deal That Bans Fed CBDC Through 2030

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Congress Strikes Housing-Bill Deal That Bans Fed CBDC Through 2030

Congressional negotiators folded a statutory ban on a Federal Reserve central bank digital currency into the bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, blocking any Fed-issued retail digital dollar until December 31, 2030. The text now heads back to the Senate floor.

Congressional negotiators have folded a statutory ban on a Federal Reserve central bank digital currency into a bipartisan housing package, blocking any Fed-issued retail digital dollar until December 31, 2030. The text is the most durable legislative CBDC prohibition yet assembled in Washington.

Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott, Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren, House Financial Services Chair French Hill, and Ranking Member Maxine Waters released updated bill text Tuesday for the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, codified as H.R. 6644. The package combines Senate, House, and White House priorities and now returns to the Senate floor for final action. Warren called the package “the biggest housing bill in more than 30 years.”

The CBDC Provision

The CBDC section amends the Federal Reserve Act. It states that the Fed “may not issue or create” a central bank digital currency, or any substantially similar asset, either directly or through a bank or other intermediary. The prohibition runs through December 31, 2030, unless Congress acts again.

The bill defines a CBDC as a dollar-denominated digital asset that is U.S. currency, a direct liability of the Federal Reserve System, and widely available to the public. The definition keeps the restriction tight on a Fed-issued retail product while leaving wholesale settlement experiments and private-sector digital dollars outside its reach.

Stablecoins Get a Carveout

The updated text exempts a digital currency that is dollar-denominated, open, permissionless, and private, with privacy protections comparable to physical U.S. currency. That language is designed to keep private stablecoins outside the freeze.

The carveout slots in alongside the GENIUS Act stablecoin framework, which is moving through enforcement, and the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, which is still grinding through the Senate. Issuers building toward dollar-pegged tokens on payment rails, including the eight chains recently lit up by Mastercard for card settlement, would compete for years without any Fed-issued digital dollar in the same lane.

Getting To The Deal

The Senate first attached the CBDC ban to the housing package in March, passing it 89-10. The House cleared its amended version 396-13 in May. The chambers spent the months since reconciling differences over institutional homebuyer limits, disaster-recovery block grants, and community banking provisions.

To seal the deal, the Senate accepted a three-year sunset for a disaster-recovery block grant program and adopted House measures including nine community banking bills and language limiting institutional homebuyers. Hill said in the Senate Banking statement that he looks forward to “President Trump signing it into law.” Waters said the legislation includes more than 50 housing and banking provisions Democrats fought to secure.

The White House Posture

The anti-CBDC provision sits alongside an executive backdrop that already disfavors a digital dollar. Trump’s January 2025 executive order on digital financial technology barred federal agencies from establishing, issuing, or promoting CBDCs except where required by law. The order cited threats to individual privacy and U.S. sovereignty as the rationale.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has reiterated that a Fed digital dollar is off the table under the current administration. The statutory ban would harden that policy into law and outlast the current term.

What’s Still In Play

Some House conservatives want a permanent prohibition rather than the 2030 sunset. The Hill reported that Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a Florida Republican, argues “CBDCs are bad for everyone” and has pushed for the ban to be made permanent. Their leverage in the next round will depend on whether Senate leadership opens the text for further amendment.

The provision also revives parts of the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, the standalone bill championed by House Majority Whip Tom Emmer that cleared the House in earlier sessions but stalled in the Senate. Folding the language into must-pass housing legislation is what gives the current path its durability.

If the package passes in its current form, the U.S. would impose a time-limited statutory bar on a Fed-issued retail digital dollar, and Congress would retain authority to extend, harden, or let lapse the ban before December 31, 2030. The updated text now heads back to the Senate floor.

U.S. Congressman Nick Begich Wants America To Stop Selling Its Bitcoin — And Start Treating It Like Gold

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U.S. Congressman Nick Begich Wants America To Stop Selling Its Bitcoin — And Start Treating It Like Gold

Congressman Nick Begich (R-AK) sat down with the Bitcoin Policy Institute at PubKey in New York for a wide-ranging conversation that touched on his path from startup founder to Capitol Hill, his landmark American Reserve Modernization Act, and the dual promise and peril of artificial intelligence.

The interview offered a window into one of Congress’s more technologically fluent members — a distinction Begich traces not to his political career but to the decades before it.

Begich’s resume reads unlike most of his colleagues. After undergraduate studies in entrepreneurship at Baylor University and an MBA from Indiana University focused on information technology and decision sciences, he spent time at Ford Motor Company before returning to Alaska to found a software development firm. 

Starting with a credit card and a laptop, he built the company to roughly 150 employees across three countries, with a practice centered on early-stage startups — helping founders transform PowerPoint pitch decks into fundable products, often in exchange for equity stakes.

That background, he said, shapes how he operates in Washington. “Congress can be a frustrating place,” Begich said. “You’re not a CEO. You can’t say, ‘We’re doing this.’” 

He drew a parallel between the consensus-building required in the House and the kind of obstacle navigation that defines startup life — facing capital constraints, entrenched competitors, and perpetual skepticism from investors. The difference, he noted, is that in Congress the runway is measured in election cycles, not funding rounds.