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Token Launch Timing Doesn’t Matter, Says Dragonfly’s Qureshi

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New research by Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi looked at long-term performance of Binance-listed tokens in bull and bear markets.

A new study suggests that token launch timing barely changes how the asset performs in the long run. The report by Haseeb Qureshi, a managing partner at crypto VC firm Dragonfly Capital, analyzed every token that had its listing announced by Binance, filtering out stablecoins, wrapped assets and other non-independent tokens.

The sample covers 202 tokens in total. When the tokens were split by launch environment — 101 tokens went to market in bull markets and 33 in bear markets — the performance gap all but disappeared.

Token launches per market cycle. Source: Dragonfly Capital

Also, Qureshi noted, regardless of the timing, most tokens don’t perform well over time. Bull-market launches recorded a median annualized return of about 1.3%, while bear-market launches came in at -1.3%.

Even when the data was sliced in different ways, the results stayed broadly the same. Qureshi emphasized that timing does not appear to matter, and shouldn’t be a primary consideration for founders:

“There is no statistically significant difference in performance between tokens launched in bull markets vs bear markets. There may be other considerations in when you choose to launch your token: cost, exchange fees, marketing expenses, etc. But if anything, those likely cut against launching in a bull market, as they tend to be higher in bulls vs bears.”

Less Competition in Bear Markets

Qureshi noted in an X post on Sunday, Feb. 15, presenting the research that this doesn’t settle every key question founders face. Bear markets may still offer cheaper talent and less competition for listings, while bull markets tend to boost demand for token sales.

Also, the data only captures tokens that made it to Binance — by far the largest centralized exchange by trading volume — meaning projects that died quietly elsewhere aren’t reflected in the report. Additionally, some market cycles include fewer tokens than others, and defining where one cycle ends and another begins is never exact, the study notes.

Nonetheless, Qureshi says it “it doesn’t matter that much when you launch,” pointing to Solana’s debut just days after the March 2020 market crash as a reminder that execution, not timing, tends to do the heavy lifting.

That said, survival itself appears to be the real hurdle. Of the roughly 24,000 tokens created since 2014, more than 14,000 are now defunct, according to a 2024 report from CoinGecko.

Even among those that do survive, meaningful revenue is rare. As The Defiant reported previously, a study by 5Money and Storible found that about 95% of nearly 5,000 crypto projects generate less than $1,000 a month, including the majority of projects valued at over $1 billion.

Crypto custodian BitGo a potential acquisition target for Wall Street, analysts say

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Wall Street analysts are betting that BitGo’s push into full-service institutional crypto finance will not only fuel long-term growth but also position the company as a prime acquisition target for traditional finance firms.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel, who has a buy rating on the stock, wrote that the firm’s services could be attractive to traditional firms looking to offer crypto products to their clients.

“We … view BTGO as an ideal M&A target for Wall Street companies expanding into crypto. BitGo offers a full suite of services that could be integrated into traditional prime brokers and new entrants could acquire BitGo to provide these solutions to clients,” the analyst wrote.

BitGo was one of the first digital asset firms to go public this year, providing custody and security services for digital assets, primarily catering to institutional clients. The IPO marked one of the first times public equity investors could gain direct exposure to crypto infrastructure, making BitGo the bridge between traditional finance and digital assets as more financial firms push deeper into the digital asset space.

The infrastructure play is one of the points Engel said could offer more upside, noting that investors are overly focused on its core custody business rather than BitGo’s “opportunity to cross-sell prime services.” The analyst went as far as comparing it to Galaxy (GLXY) and Coinbase’s (COIN) prime brokerage services and noting that Galaxy’s average revenue per trading counterparty is “~6x BitGo’s, implying significant upside,” for BitGo, if the firm is able to ramp up its services.

‘Attractive’ take over target

The company’s competitive advantage and acquisition potential were echoed by at least one other Wall Street investment bank’s analyst.

“We believe BitGo’s competitive moat is solid, but more importantly we believe the company could make an attractive time-to-market asset for major Tradfi players looking to enter this market in an expedited manner,” said Canaccord Genuity in a note. The analyst has a $15 price target and a buy rating on the stock.

BitGo’s acquisition potential isn’t without precedent.

In May 2021, Galaxy Digital said it agreed to buy the firm for $1.2 billion, but later abandoned the deal after Galaxy said BitGo had failed to provide financial statements by a deadline at the end of July. With the stock being public, those concerns may no longer be an issue.

BitGo’s stock has dropped more than 40% since the company set its January IPO at $18 per share, now trading near $10.26. Meanwhile, bitcoin has declined about 24% year-to-date, Galaxy fell about 9% and Coinbase tumbled nearly 30% amid a broader crypto market selloff.

The IPO valued the firm at $2 billion, but after the recent selloff, the stock’s market cap is currently about $1.24 billion, bringing it closer to the valuation near the failed Galaxy deal.

However, Canaccord sees BitGo’s underperformance as an overreaction by the market. “BTGO shares… have reacted much more severely than any shorter term P&L trajectory weakness might warrant,” the investment bank’s analyst said, defending the stock.

BitGo currently has 10 analysts covering the stock, with nine buy ratings and one hold rating, according to FactSet data. Analyst price targets range from $12 to $18 per share, implying the stock could still rise by 17% to 75% from current prices.

Read more: Crypto M&A Heats Up as Big Banks and Fintechs Race to Scale

Google’s Take on the Future of Fintech: Beyond Neobanks and BNPL

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In their latest conversation, Karen Zhang from Google says the big consumer fintech waves of the last few years, such as neobanks and buy now, pay later, is starting to feel crowded. There are now lots of similar B2C fintech products, which makes it harder for companies stand out and scale and while Google isn’t saying these models are finished, but that they’ve become oversaturated, so the next opportunities are showing up elsewhere.

Google explains that momentum is shifting from B2C to B2B fintech, from building consumer-focused apps to building the infrastructure that powers financial services at scale. Many neobanks created robust tech behind the scenes, like custom core systems and ledgers (the systems that record balances and transactions). Now, more fintechs are packaging parts of that stack and offering them to other organisations instead of keeping them in-house.

That’s where white labelling and banking-as-a-service (BaaS) come in; White labelling is “we built it, you brand it,” while BaaS is the broader idea of providing modular banking components, such as accounts, payments, ledgering, cards, and compliance tooling, via platforms and APIs; With Google saying that much of their time is now spent with fintechs that have shifted to serving tier 1, tier 2, and tier 3 banks, as well as insurers.

For Zhang, the exciting part is how this changes the conversation from “interesting technology” to “how do we actually scale?” with distribution often being the hardest piece. In the UK, Zhang notes fintech can be fragmented, there’s a fintech for every product — which can keep companies stuck in narrow lanes; Whereas  B2B approach helps fintechs reach millions of end users indirectly by embedding capabilities inside established providers that already have big customer bases.

Overall, Zhang frames this as embedded finance with a B2B focus: fintechs supply the components, and banks or insurers bring reach, trust, and existing relationships and Google expects more of this with more collaboration across the fintech ecosystem, and more fintechs choosing to be the reliable beating heart of banking rather than the flashy consumer front end.

Bitcoin Grabs Bid Liquidity Below $67,000 As Iran Tensions Flare

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Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $67,000 at Tuesday’s Wall Street open as risk assets responded to new geopolitical pressures.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin joins stocks in a geopolitics-driven sell-off to the start the US TradFi trading week.

  • Bid liquidity gets crunched with the BTC price range still firmly in place.

  • Strategy adding to its BTC stack failed to offer any relief for Bitcoin bulls.

Tension in Iran keeps Bitcoin under pressure

Data from TradingView showed daily BTC price losses of more than 3.8% on Bitstamp.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin and altcoins joined US stocks in a sell-off to start the week’s first US trading session thanks to market nerves over naval drills by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz — a key oil route.

Talks between the US and Iran, which the latter described as “serious and constructive,” concluded around the same time.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index were down by up to 1.25% at the time of writing, while gold dropped to lows of $4,842 per ounce.

XAU/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Analyzing exchange liquidity conditions on the day, X commentary account Exitpump was among those eyeing a sweep of range lows for BTC/USD next.

“Really huge bids are still sitting there in the spot orderbooks around 60K level,” it noted on data from both Binance and Coinbase.

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed price slicing through nearby bid liquidity during the drop.

Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

The day prior, liquidity games formed the main source of volatility on Bitcoin, with both longs and shorts in the firing line.

“Nothing special on $BTC,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe summarized. 

“It’s stuck in a range and simply consolidating, through which it’s a waiting game until volatility slows down and the expansion is about to game.”

BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Investor O’Leary repeats Bitcoin quantum worries

News that Strategy, the company with the world’s largest Bitcoin corporate treasury, had bought nearly 2,500 BTC over the past week, failed to impact the mood.

Related: $75K or bearish ‘regime shift?’ Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

As confirmed by CEO Michael Saylor, Strategy’s total holdings rose to 717,131 BTC, with its average cost basis at just over $76,000.

Strategy BTC holdings (screenshot). Source: Strategy

At the same time, onchain data tracked potential outflows from the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

At the weekend, Shark Tank cohost and venture capitalist Kevin O’Leary told mainstream media that the threat of quantum computing cracking Bitcoin’s security model was keeping institutions away.

“I’m still long this, but there’s a new concern floating around for 10% of the people out there: quantum, the idea that a quantum computer can break the chain,” he said in an interview on FOX News.

O’Leary said that potential exposure was being capped at 3% of institutional portfolios as a result.