President Trump is working to end the conflict with Iran and stop nuclear weapons development. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 have fallen to 23.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday.
The market shows mixed reactions. Immediate ceasefire odds are low: April 7 is at 1.8% YES, down from 8% a day ago. The April 15 market also dropped to 8.5% from 18%. However, the May 31 market is at 45.5% YES, suggesting traders expect progress in the coming months.
$535,634 was traded in the last 24 hours, with a significant 4-point drop on May 31. It takes $25,858 to move the April 7 market 5 points, indicating thin liquidity. The biggest sentiment change is between April 30 and May 31, hinting at a potential development in May.
Trump’s diplomatic efforts could shift strategies, but skepticism persists. The market suggests a potential breakthrough by late May, with May 31 YES shares priced at 46¢, offering a 2.2x return if resolved. Traders are betting on a diplomatic catalyst within 59 days.
Watch for peace talks, CENTCOM statements, or mediation by Oman or Qatar. Rubio and Hegseth’s actions are also key to US strategy.
Markets Impacted
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.