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Transparency, Margins and Market Structure

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Electronic trading has transformed fixed income markets, dramatically increasing trading volumes and efficiency across the industry. However, as adoption accelerates, a new debate is emerging across the buy side, sell side and trading venues: who ultimately pays for the infrastructure that enables modern bond markets?

Over the past decade, the electronification of trading has reshaped the way bonds are traded, reducing friction and enabling faster execution. Electronic trading platforms have helped narrow bid–offer spreads and improve liquidity discovery, delivering measurable benefits for market participants and investors alike. 

Yet the efficiency gains have also introduced new economic pressures. As volumes increase and spreads compress, margins for dealers are tightening. In an environment where platform fees remain relatively static, rising competition has intensified the squeeze on the sell side.

Margin Pressure in an Electronified Market

Sell-side trading firms increasingly argue that while innovation in trading technology is welcome, the cost burden is unevenly distributed and dealers often bear the direct costs of platform connectivity and transaction fees, which can add up significantly at scale.

Industry estimates suggest that platform trading costs for dealers have risen steadily in recent years, with some firms reporting increases of around 10% annually over a five-year period. 

This cost dynamic becomes more pronounced as electronic trading continues to compress spreads: the traditional source of sell-side revenue. As spreads tighten but platform fees remain fixed, they effectively create a cost floor that limits how far margin compression can go.

The Buy-Side Perspective

From the buy-side viewpoint, the economics are less straightforward as asset managers argue that although they may not pay explicit platform fees in many cases. They do however, still absorb costs indirectly through spreads and execution prices.

Trading costs in financial markets are typically divided into two categories: explicit costs such as commissions or platform fees, and implicit costs such as spreads, market impact and information leakage. 

In fixed income, an over-the-counter market, these costs are often bundled into a single execution price. This makes fixed income difficult to isolate as this lack of transparency makes it challenging for investors to fully understand how execution costs are distributed across the trading ecosystem.

The Transparency Challenge

While regulatory frameworks in regions such as Europe require trading venues to publish fee schedules, the reality is that these schedules can be highly complex. Pricing in trading often depends on factors including trade size, instrument type, trading protocol and volume-based discounts which  makes the true cost of execution difficult to estimate before a trade occurs. 

This opacity means that many firms only gain full visibility into their costs once monthly invoices arrive, by which point it is too late to influence execution decisions and as a result, both buy-side and sell-side firms are calling for greater transparency around trading costs and platform pricing models. 

Greater visibility at the point of execution could enable traders to make more informed routing decisions and potentially reduce overall market friction.

Partnerships, Not a Race to the Bottom

Despite the debate around costs, market participants broadly agree on one point: electronic trading platforms are essential infrastructure for modern fixed income markets.

Platforms provide critical services beyond execution, including market data aggregation, automation tools and workflow integration with order and execution management systems. These capabilities help participants manage increasingly complex trading environments while supporting greater automation and efficiency.

For many firms, the challenge now lies in balancing cost control with continued innovation. Rather than pursuing a race to the bottom on fees, the industry may need to move toward a more collaborative model, where trading venues, dealers and asset managers work together to build sustainable fee structures and transparent execution frameworks.

As electronification of trading continues to expand across credit markets and the conversation around the “true cost” of fixed income trading is likely to remain central to the evolution of financial markets structure.

Bitcoin Will Feel Ripple Effect of Prolonged Mideast War

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As geopolitical tensions escalate and global markets face a new wave of uncertainty, one asset has been behaving in an unexpected way: Bitcoin.

While the Middle East slides deeper into conflict and energy markets react to potential supply disruptions, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has held up relatively well compared to many traditional assets.

For some observers, that resilience raises an important question: Could Bitcoin be signaling something about the macro environment that markets haven’t fully priced in?

In our latest interview, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Maelstrom, shares his perspective on the forces shaping the global economy, and why the coming months could prove pivotal for financial markets.

On the geopolitical front, Hayes argues that investors may be underestimating the risks if the current conflict expands or drags on.

“I don’t think global markets are fully priced in [on] a longer war between the US and Iran,” he said. If energy flows are disrupted, the ripple effects could spread through the global economy via higher oil prices, inflationary pressure and increased volatility across markets.

At the same time, Hayes says another powerful disruption is unfolding beneath the surface: artificial intelligence.

According to him, AI could rapidly reshape the labor market by replacing a significant share of knowledge workers, from lawyers and bankers to accountants and analysts. If that transition happens quickly, the result could be widespread credit stress as households struggle to service existing debt.

Ultimately, Hayes believes the global financial system tends to respond to crises the same way: with liquidity. “Bitcoin is essentially just a liquidity smoke alarm,” he says. 

To hear Hayes break down his macro thesis, watch the full interview on our YouTube channel and don’t forget to subscribe!

This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.

Bitcoin Could Outshine Gold Through 2029, Macroeconomist Predicts

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The gap between how investors feel about gold and Bitcoin has rarely been this wide. Gold’s fear and greed index sat at 72 out of 100 — deep in greed territory — while the top crypto’s equivalent reading hit 18 out of 100, a level classified as extreme fear.

For macroeconomist Lyn Alden, that gap tells a story worth paying attention to.

A Contrarian Bet On Bitcoin’s Next Two To Three Years

Alden, speaking on the New Era Finance podcast this week, said that if she had to choose between the two assets for the period ahead, she’d pick Bitcoin.

“Gun to my head, if I had to say which one I think outperforms, I would say Bitcoin,” she said.

Gold has climbed hard. Bitcoin has fallen far. She sees a pendulum between the two, and right now it has swung well in gold’s favor. That, she argued, sets up a potential reversal.

Gold reached a record high of around $5,608 per ounce in January. Bitcoin, by contrast, is sitting roughly 44% below its own peak of $126,000, reached last October.

The divergence in price performance mirrors the divergence in investor mood. Alden acknowledged gold’s run but stopped short of calling it a bubble.

Sentiment around it is “somewhat euphoric,” she said, while the mood around Bitcoin has turned what she described as unfairly negative.

She was careful not to overclaim. Both assets can rise at the same time. Both can fall. She does not treat the relationship between them as fixed or predictable with certainty. But pressed to make a call, she made one.

BTCUSD trading at $70,274 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView

Gold’s Strength Could Be Bitcoin’s Opportunity

The backdrop to Alden’s comments is a broader debate about which asset deserves the title of reliable store of value.

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has come down firmly on gold’s side. Speaking publicly this week, Dalio described gold as the most established form of money and pointed to its standing as the second-largest reserve asset held by central banks worldwide.

Image: OSL

He raised concerns about Bitcoin’s limitations around privacy and its vulnerability to quantum computing advances — a technological threat that remains years away but is drawing increasing attention as construction begins on large-scale quantum facilities.

Dalio’s position and Alden’s are not entirely at odds. Neither dismissed either asset outright. The question is about which performs better over a defined window, not which survives long-term.

Related Reading: Stablecoins Pose Fresh Risk To Eurozone Lending, ECB Says

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has made a bolder call — he predicted Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2030, citing cleaner regulatory conditions emerging in the US, which he called a signal for the rest of the G20.

(Featured image from Bitwise, chart from TradingView)

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Bitcoin May Be Quiet Now but Institutional Flows Suggest a Bigger Move Ahead

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Institutional investors are holding firm through bitcoin’s latest market dip, signaling deeper conviction as ETF inflows, new buyers, and geopolitical tensions reinforce the cryptocurrency’s growing role as a potential safe-haven asset. Why Institutional Investors Aren’t Dumping Bitcoin During the Latest Dip Growing institutional participation is shaping bitcoin’s market behavior during periods of volatility. Crypto Research […]

BTC in deep bear market, could crash by another 30%, investment firm says

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Bitcoin is firmly in the deepest phase of the bear market and the pain may worsen, according to CK Zheng, founder of crypto investment firm ZX Squared Capital.

“Bitcoin’s price is convincingly in deep bear market territory now. We expect a further 30% price drop during 2026 as the Iran war started,” Zheng told CoinDesk in an email, citing the “four-year cycle” as one of the key catalysts.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency has already nearly halved since hitting a record high of over $126,000 in October last year, according to CoinDesk data. As of writing, it changed hands at around $68,000.

The four-year bitcoin cycle

Crypto investors often talk about the “four-year cycle” – a pattern in which prices surge, crash, and then recover, centred on the quadrennial mining reward halving.

The halving, most recently implemented in April 2024, is a programmed event that halves bitcoin’s supply expansion rate every 4 years. As of today, 3.125 BTC are emitted as rewards for each block mined on the Bitcoin network, down from the original 50 BTC at launch after four halving events to date.

Historically, bitcoin’s price has tended to peak about 16–18 months after a halving, followed by a bear market that typically lasts about a year.

BTC topping out in October last year, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving, means the cycle is playing out again. So, the bear market could deepen in the near term.

Zheng said that the cycle is proving very difficult to break. According to him, the reason is simple: human psychology.

“The “Four-year crypto cycle” momentum is gaining strength and is extremely difficult to break due to individual investors’ psychological behaviors,” Zheng said.

Individual investors tend to behave in predictable ways — buying during hype and selling during panic. That behavior reinforces the boom-and-bust four-year pattern that has defined crypto markets for more than a decade.

Because of this, Zheng said bitcoin still trades more like a speculative asset than a safe haven like gold.

He added that the institutional adoption of bitcoin remains very slow and limited in scope at this stage and warned that some firms that have purchased bitcoin as a treasury asset may be forced to sell, leading to a deeper price sell-off.

“The total size of crypto ETFs and Digital Asset Treasury companies is only around 10% of the whole crypto market. Some Digital Asset Treasury firms may be forced to sell cryptos to meet certain debt servicing requirements during this bear market, which may create a vicious cycle,” Zheng said.

For now, Zheng’s outlook is clear: crypto’s bear market may have further to run before the next cycle begins.

FCA Smart Data Accelerator Commissions Oxford Saïd and Raidiam for Open finance Infrastructure Research

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Raidiam, a global provider of secure open data ecosystems and the technical delivery partner for the FCA‘s Smart Data Sprints, has entered into a research partnership with the Saïd Business School at the University of Oxford. Commissioned by the FCA’s Smart Data Accelerator, the programme will design testable infrastructure models for open finance and smart data in the UK.

The collaboration, which was recently highlighted at the FCA Mortgages & SME Finance TechSprint Showcase Day, will contribute to a multi-chapter research report. This report will examine alternative technology, infrastructure, and governance models capable of underpinning a future open finance ecosystem.

Four dimensions of open finance

The independent research is being led by Professor Pınar Özcan, director of the Oxford Future of Finance and Technology Initiative, alongside researcher Kyeyoung Shin. To ensure a comprehensive evaluation, the programme will examine infrastructure and data architecture models across four critical dimensions.

First, the project will assess infrastructure and standardisation, focusing heavily on ecosystem rails, APIs, interoperability, and overall resilience. Second, it will explore the role of emerging technology, specifically looking at agentic AI, blockchain or distributed ledger technology (DLT), and quantum-readiness. The final two dimensions will concentrate on establishing robust trust and consent frameworks—prioritising consumer control, ethical data use, and data assurance—alongside the development of overarching governance and liability frameworks.

Translating concepts into testable blueprints

Saïd Business School will spearhead the independent research programme by combining structured architectural modelling, global benchmarking, and active stakeholder engagement. Raidiam, under the leadership of John Heaton-Armstrong, will contribute technical and domain expertise drawn from its extensive experience in designing and operating high-trust, regulated data-sharing ecosystems.

A central premise of the initiative is that infrastructure design decisions—such as identity frameworks, accreditation models, trust anchors, consent representation, and standards governance—are not neutral. These choices ultimately dictate who can participate, how quickly ecosystems scale, how risks are monitored, and how liability is allocated.

The research aims to develop multiple architectural models, including hybrid, federated interoperability, and centrally coordinated approaches. The Raidiam team will support the translation of these conceptual models into testable, technically coherent blueprints. Each model will specify the technical components required for simulation within the FCA Innovation Department’s Digital Sandbox using synthetic datasets, articulating integration considerations, operational dependencies, and testing parameters.

Shaping future UK policy

Barry O’Donohoe, CEO and Co-Founder of Raidiam, commented on the strategic importance of the work, noting that as the UK considers the evolution from open banking to broader open finance and smart data regimes, infrastructure choices will shape market participation, resilience, and consumer protection for years to come. He stated that Raidiam is pleased to contribute implementation insights to ensure the proposed models are both technically credible and capable of structured testing.

Professor Özcan added that the UK is at a pivotal moment in the development of open finance. She emphasised that the research will compare alternative configurations to provide the FCA with evidence-based options for experimentation and future policy development.

The project will run until the end of March 2026, with the final report scheduled for submission on 31 March 2026. The findings are expected to support future experimentation within the FCA’s innovation functions and may inform broader policy development and industry research outputs.

Crypto trading firm BlockFills explores restructuring amid losses and customer lawsuit

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BlockFills, the Chicago-based crypto options and lending platform backed by Susquehanna, is preparing for a corporate restructuring after suffering substantial financial losses and facing legal action from a customer alleging mishandling of funds.

According to a Financial Times report, the firm has engaged consulting group BRG and law firm Katten Muchin Rosenman to advise on restructuring efforts.

BlockFills froze client withdrawals last month following loan losses and unsuccessful bets tied to crypto mining operations. The company has since disclosed to potential investors that its financial reporting contained inaccuracies.

A Manhattan federal judge issued a temporary restraining order against BlockFills on Thursday after a lawsuit from Dominion Capital, which alleges the firm improperly handled customer funds.

Dominion claims the company co-mingled customer assets and failed to segregate funds by client. According to court filings, BlockFills executives acknowledged that customer assets were held together on a single balance sheet rather than in separate wallets.

The lawsuit also alleges company executives used those funds to cover operating expenses, crypto mining losses and unsecured loans.

BlockFills said it is actively exploring options to stabilize the company.

The firm has appointed BRG executive Mark Renzi as chief transformation officer as it works on a restructuring plan that could bring in new capital and strengthen financial controls.

BlockFills told potential investors that its financial issues stem from losses in trading, lending and crypto mining, along with poor bookkeeping. The company reported a balance sheet deficit of roughly $80 million.

BlockFills also reported losses of roughly $23 million tied to lending exposure to Babel Finance and Aexa Digital Finance, both of which later filed for bankruptcy. The company is also owed funds from the bankruptcy of FTX while owing funds to the bankruptcy estate of Celsius.

The firm suffered nearly $30 million in losses from its crypto mining venture before shutting down that business.

Founded in 2018, BlockFills processed about $60 billion in trading volume in 2025, including $20 billion in spot trading and roughly $40 billion in derivatives.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Aave Rift, Bitcoin Rebound and ETF Inflows Dominate the Crypto Week

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Bitcoin and the leading cryptocurrencies staged a recovery this week following initial shockwaves from the outbreak of the US-Israel conflict with Iran.

Bitcoin (BTC) initially fell to $63,245 on Sunday, before briefly recovering to $73,000 on Thursday, assisted by renewed demand from US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which logged $1.1 billion in net weekly inflows leading up to Thursday.

In the broader DeFi space, Aave’s governance dispute continued, with the Aave Chan Initiative (ACI) saying it will not renew its engagement with the Aave DAO and plans to wind down operations in the next four months.

Bitcoin ETF flows, in USD million. Source: Farside Investors

Aave Chan Initiative to exit Aave DAO after governance clash over funding

The ACI, a major governance delegate and service provider within the Aave ecosystem, said it will not renew its engagement with the Aave DAO and plans to wind down over the next four months.

In a statement on Tuesday, ACI founder Marc Zeller said the organization would continue governance activity and complete outstanding commitments before transferring its infrastructure and responsibilities to the DAO or successor providers. 

“The Aave Chan Initiative was built for Aave. Without a future in the Aave ecosystem, the name no longer applies. ACI will wrap up as our obligations conclude,” Zeller wrote. 

ACI said its decision to exit was driven by concerns over governance standards and voting dynamics during the proposal process, marking a significant shift in Aave’s governance landscape as its funding plan advances to the next stage.

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Strive strategist says AI deflation could push Bitcoin to $11 million by 2036

Technological deflation driven by artificial intelligence could help push Bitcoin above $10 million within a decade by pressuring central banks to keep expanding the money supply, according to a report from Strive strategist Joe Burnett.

Burnett, Strive’s vice president of Bitcoin strategy, said in a report published Monday that faster productivity gains from AI will push down prices across goods and services, squeezing margins and prompting policymakers to respond with sustained monetary expansion. His “base case” calls for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach $11 million in the first quarter of 2036, he wrote.

”My base case for Q1 2036 is $11 million per Bitcoin.”

The forecast rests on a set of aggressive assumptions, including that Bitcoin would grow to about 12% of the value of global financial assets and that global wealth would compound at 7% annually through 2036. With Bitcoin currently accounting for about 0.2% of all financial assets, this would involve an over 176-fold increase in Bitcoin’s market capitalization during the next decade to hit $230 trillion.

Source: Joe Burnett

The forecast would imply that Bitcoin will become the dominant global reserve asset along with structurally loose monetary policy over the next decade, Nic Puckrin, co-founder and lead market analyst of educational platform Coin Bureau, told Cointelegraph.

”The forecast implies Bitcoin would become around 10 times as large as the current US M2 money supply, nearly four times as large as the US equity market today, and nearly double current global GDP.”

The prediction would also imply a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 53% per annum, which is not unprecedented considering Bitcoin’s average 60% CAGR between 2015 and 2024, but a slowdown may be expected due to its larger market capitalization, added Puckrin.

Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, agreed, warning that the prediction would imply a “huge” 16,318% increase for Bitcoin during the next decade, which looks unlikely due to Bitcoin’s declining volatility.

“The more liquidity flows into the asset from both institutional and retail investors, the less likely sharp price spikes will be recorded,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding that the “realistic price range is at most $1 million.”

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Stablecoin inflows rebound to $1.7 billion as Washington battles over yield rules

Weekly net stablecoin inflows rebounded last week as onchain activity picked up even while US lawmakers and banking groups sparred over whether third parties should be allowed to pay stablecoin yield, according to a new report from Messari.

Weekly net stablecoin inflows accelerated to $1.7 billion, a 414.5% increase week-on-week, according to the report published on Wednesday.

The recovery flipped the 30-day average to a positive $162.5 million in daily inflows. Transaction volumes rose 6.3%, while average transaction size continued to decline, reflecting renewed stablecoin issuance demand and “strengthened” onchain activity amid retail investors, the report said.

Stablecoin inflows track net new stablecoins entering circulation after accounting for redemptions.

The surge follows a weaker period earlier in the year. Messari data showed $249 million in weekly inflows two weeks earlier and $4.4 billion in net outflows over the 30 days leading up to Feb. 18.

Top stablecoins by yield percentage. Source: Messari

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Solv Protocol offers 10% bounty after $2.7 million vault exploit

Bitcoin-based decentralized finance platform Solv Protocol says one of its token vaults was exploited for $2.7 million and has offered the attacker a 10% bounty in exchange for returning the stolen funds.

Solv said in an X post on Thursday that fewer than 10 of its users were impacted, but it would cover the loss of 38.05 Solv Protocol BTC (SolvBTC), a token pegged to Bitcoin (BTC).

The project added that it had implemented measures to prevent the attack from recurring and was investigating the exploit with crypto security firms Hypernative, SlowMist and CertiK.

Source: Solv Protocol

Solv allows users to deposit Bitcoin for Solv Protocol BTC, which they can then use to lend, borrow or stake on other blockchains. The project has 24,226 Bitcoin worth over $1.7 billion and claims it is the largest onchain Bitcoin reserve.

Solv hasn’t confirmed how the exploit occurred, but two crypto security researchers said it stemmed from a vulnerability in one of Solv’s smart contracts that allowed the attacker to mint excessive amounts of a token used on the protocol.

The attacker exploited the vulnerability 22 times before swapping hundreds of millions of tokens for just over 38 SolvBTC, according to CD Security co-founder Chris Dior.

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Bybit claims new fraud system stopped $300 million of risky withdrawals in Q4 2025

Bybit said it blocked or disrupted more than $300 million worth of suspected scam-related withdrawals in the fourth quarter of 2025 after rolling out an AI-assisted risk monitoring system designed to flag malicious transactions before funds leave the exchange.

In a company blog post, Bybit said its system flagged about $500 million in withdrawal requests during the quarter and that more than 4,000 users were “protected” after the platform issued real-time risk alerts or blocked transactions outright.

Bybit’s head of group risk control, David Zong, told Cointelegraph that much of the $300 million total reflects withdrawals users voluntarily cancelled after seeing warnings, meaning the funds remained in their accounts rather than requiring clawbacks or reimbursement.

“Because the withdrawals were stopped prior to completion, the funds did not require recovery or reimbursement. They remained in users’ accounts at all times.”

Bybit said the system also identified 350 high-risk investment fraud addresses that shielded 8,000 users from potential withdrawal losses during the previous quarter. It also thwarted over 3 million credential stuffing attacks attempted by hackers throughout 2025.

Source: Bybit

Cryptocurrency hacks resulted in $3.4 billion in losses during 2025, as hackers turned their focus to large crypto entities.

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DeFi market overview

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the green.

The River (RIVER) token rose 94% as the biggest gainer of the week, followed by the Humanity Protocol (H) token, up 39% during the past week.

Total value locked in DeFi. Source: DefiLlama

Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education regarding this dynamically advancing space.