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The ‘Hyperbolic’ Era Ends: Wintermute Report Reveals Structural Shift for Bitcoin

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Over the past decade, bitcoin mining thrived on predicting price surges after halvings. However, a new report by Wintermute indicates this reliance has ended as bitcoin matures into an institutional asset, disrupting previous profitability cycles. Diminishing Returns in the Post-Institutional Era For over a decade, bitcoin mining relied on a simple gamble: weather quadrennial halvings […]

Mastercard Unveils Single-Platform Global Commerce Suite to Streamline Cross-Border SME payments in APAC

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Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across the Asia Pacific region are rapidly expanding into global trade, but complex payment processes and limited transaction visibility continue to hinder their growth.

In response, Mastercard has introduced the Mastercard Global Commerce Suite for Small Businesses. Powered by the Mastercard Move portfolio, this holistic set of capabilities is specifically designed to help banks support the evolving cross-border needs of time-strapped SMEs. The solution is initially available to banks and financial institutions in the key regional commerce hub of Hong Kong, with strategic plans to expand across select markets throughout the Asia Pacific.

Addressing the hurdles of global expansion

A persistent hurdle for internationalised SMEs is the glaring lack of in-house treasury and finance capabilities. When coupled with complex administrative processes, stringent compliance requirements, vague timelines, and limited financial visibility, the barrier remains exceptionally high for businesses looking to expand within an already volatile economy. Digital commercial payments in the Asia Pacific are forecasted to grow by 14.7 per cent annually through 2028, largely driven by the rapid digitisation of these smaller enterprises and their increasing participation in cross-border trade. As this demand rises, banks are finding themselves under intense pressure to offer simpler, more connected payment experiences that can reduce operational complexity while actively supporting international growth.

Unified features and industry perspectives
Anouska Ladds, Mastercard, EVP of commercial and new payment flows for APAC

Through a single, unified touchpoint, the new suite enables SMEs to manage their payments, collections, and expenses with high efficiency. Businesses gain global finance flexibility, allowing them to pay and get paid like a local entity using virtual bank accounts in multiple currencies or a single multi-currency card. Furthermore, the platform offers seamless integration via app-based controls and API-driven connectivity to leading marketplaces and e-commerce platforms. This is paired with near real-time payouts and clear tracking for improved cash flow clarity, alongside strong authentication and compliance functionalities that reduce friction, fraud, and associated costs.

Anouska Ladds, executive vice president of commercial and new payment flows for Asia Pacific at Mastercard, highlighted the systemic friction the suite aims to eliminate. She noted that while SMEs want to move money across borders with the same speed and confidence as domestic transactions, many banks remain constrained by legacy systems. Ladds explained that the new suite aims to offer banks a scalable way to support SME growth by consolidating payments, visibility, and control into one purpose-built platform. Ultimately, she believes this will enable banks to serve SMEs more effectively and build the foundation for deeper, long-term relationships as these customers scale.

Modernising the broader ecosystem

Across the Asia Pacific, banks are actively modernising how they serve businesses as commercial payments become increasingly digital and data-driven by default. Mastercard is supporting this industry-wide shift by helping financial institutions simplify complex payment flows, connect fragmented systems, and deliver more consistent experiences across various cards, accounts, and platforms. By combining its global network capabilities, embedded security, and API-driven connectivity, the payments giant enables banks to digitise commercial payments at scale. The underlying engine, Mastercard Move, facilitates this by reaching nearly 17 billion endpoints and 95 per cent of the world’s banked population, enabling money to move quickly and safely across more than 200 countries and territories in over 150 currencies.

Bitcoin Miners Need AI, Yield Strategies to Survive

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Many Bitcoin miners are struggling to turn a profit this market cycle due to diminishing returns, so they may need to pivot to artificial intelligence hosting or put their holdings to work to generate yields, says market maker Wintermute.

Wintermute said in a blog post on Thursday that Bitcoin (BTC) miners have spent years building large-scale power infrastructure in low-cost energy markets, and they now find themselves “sitting on exactly what the AI industry needs most urgently and cannot easily replicate.”

It said that Bitcoin mining is a “structurally rigid business model,” and while the AI pivot is a compelling one, it is also a “drastic and capital-intensive step.”

The report comes as mining giant MARA Holdings is the latest to eye AI, filing with the SEC on March 3 to signal its intent to sell some of its BTC to pivot to the technology. Meanwhile, publicly listed miners have sold more than 15,000 Bitcoin since October.

Miners hanging onto Bitcoin is “legacy of the HODL era”

Wintermute said that Bitcoin miners are collectively holding close to 1% of the total BTC supply, which it argued was a “legacy of the HODL era,” and that the “full toolkit of treasury management remains largely untapped.”

Crypto yield generation has been traditionally limited to staking and DeFi, but Wintermute said miners could tap yields through active management, such as monetizing market risk through derivatives structures, covered calls, and cash-secured puts.

Passive management options include deploying BTC into lending protocols to earn interest.

Bitcoin revenue and gross margins are way down from previous cycles (epochs). Source: Wintermute

“We believe active balance sheet management is the most underutilized lever available to miners and one that deserves far greater strategic attention,” Wintermute said. “The miners who treat their BTC holdings as a working asset rather than a passive reserve will carry a structural edge into the next halving.”

Related: Mining companies move deeper into AI, HPC as MARA may sell Bitcoin

Wintermute said that for the first time in a four-year market cycle, Bitcoin has failed to deliver the two-times price return needed to offset halving-driven revenue cuts, and gross margins have peaked at levels that previously marked bear market floors.

Additionally, the transaction fee market has not filled the gap as it is “episodic” and not structural. At the same time, energy costs continue to squeeze margins. 

The company noted that data suggests this squeeze is unlike previous cycles in 2018 and 2022, describing it as a “healthy shakeup” that fits within the design of Bitcoin and will make the mining industry “more efficient as a result.”

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