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Brazil’s finance minister delays divisive crypto tax plan

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Brazil’s new finance minister, Dario Durigan, is expected to delay a public consultation on applying a tax on financial operations, locally known as Imposto sobre Operações Financeiras (IOF) to some cryptocurrency transactions, Reuters reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

Durigan took office on March 20 after Fernando Haddad stepped down to run for governor of São Paulo. Reuters said the new minister wants to focus on microeconomic measures and avoid proposals that could trigger conflict with Congress during an election year.

The postponed consultation centered on a draft decree that could classify some crypto transactions as foreign exchange operations.

That matters because foreign exchange deals in Brazil can face IOF rates ranging from 0.38% on some inbound flows to as much as 3.5% on overseas purchases, remittances and card spending abroad. Transfers for overseas investment can face a 1.1% rate.

The proposal has already drawn pushback from major industry groups. In a joint statement ABcripto, ABFintechs, Abracam, ABToken and Zetta, which together represent more than 850 companies, said applying IOF to stablecoin transactions would be illegal under Brazil’s constitution and the country’s 2022 Virtual Assets Law.

They argued that stablecoins are not fiat currency and cannot be treated as foreign exchange instruments by decree or administrative rule.

The proposal drew attention in February after the central bank classified part of the crypto market, especially some stablecoin activity, within the scope of foreign exchange rules. That gave the Finance Ministry and tax authorities a base to study whether those transactions should fall under IOF.

The ministry may also shelve a separate proposal to end tax breaks on some investment securities.

Why Digital Banking Customers Are Expected to Exceed 3.6 Billion by 2028

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The number of digital banking customers worldwide is expected to exceed 3.6 billion by 2028, according to Juniper Research. That would represent roughly 45% of the global population and more than half of all adults. In 2023, the figure stood at approximately 2.5 billion. The projected growth of over a billion new digital banking users in five years reflects how quickly consumer behaviour is changing.

The term “digital banking customers” covers a wide range. It includes people who use their traditional bank’s mobile app to check their balance, and it includes people whose only bank is a neobank they downloaded from an app store. The common thread is that the primary interaction with financial services happens through a screen rather than a branch.

What Is Driving the Growth

The most direct driver is smartphone adoption. GSMA’s Mobile Economy report counted 6.4 billion smartphone connections globally in 2024, up from 5.3 billion in 2020. Each new smartphone user is a potential digital banking customer. In many emerging markets, people are getting smartphones before they get bank accounts, which means their first financial experience is digital by default.

Traditional banks are themselves driving the shift. Most large banks now treat their mobile apps as the primary customer channel, not a supplement to branches. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo each report that more than 70% of their retail customer interactions happen through digital channels. HSBC, Barclays, and Lloyds Banking Group report similar numbers in the UK. These banks are investing billions in their digital platforms, partly to serve existing customers and partly to compete with neobanks.

Branch closures are accelerating the transition. In the UK, more than 5,000 bank branches have closed since 2015, according to data from Which?. The US saw over 3,000 branch closures in 2023 alone, according to S&P Global. As branches disappear, customers who previously relied on in-person banking are forced to move online. For many, the transition is permanent.

Neobanks Are Adding Customers at Scale

Digital-only banks are a significant part of the 3.6 billion projection. Nubank, the world’s largest neobank by customer count, surpassed 100 million customers in 2024. Revolut reached 45 million users globally. Chime has over 20 million users in the US. Monzo has roughly 9 million in the UK. KakaoBank in South Korea has over 20 million users.

These companies are growing faster than traditional banks because their acquisition costs are lower and their onboarding is faster. Opening an account with Nubank or Revolut takes less than 10 minutes. There are no branch visits, no paper forms, and no waiting periods. According to estimates from Accenture, the average customer acquisition cost for a neobank is $5 to $30, compared to $200 to $350 for a traditional bank that relies on branch-based acquisition.

The retention question is more complicated. Neobanks have historically had lower engagement rates than traditional banks, partly because many customers use them as secondary accounts. A person might keep their salary deposit at a traditional bank while using a neobank for specific functions like international transfers or budgeting tools. Neobanks that can convert secondary account holders into primary banking relationships capture significantly more revenue per customer.

Emerging Markets Will Drive Most of the Growth

The majority of the billion-plus new digital banking customers expected by 2028 will come from emerging markets, not developed ones. Developed markets like the US, UK, and Western Europe already have digital banking penetration rates above 60%. The growth ceiling is closer.

India is the single largest growth market. With a population of 1.4 billion and digital banking penetration still below 50%, there is room for hundreds of millions of new digital banking users. The government’s Jan Dhan Yojana programme opened over 500 million basic bank accounts, many of which are now being linked to mobile banking applications. UPI provides the payment infrastructure. Companies like PhonePe, Paytm, and Google Pay India are building the consumer experience layer on top.

Indonesia, with a population of 275 million and digital banking penetration of roughly 30%, is another large opportunity. Bank Jago, a digital bank backed by GoTo Group, has grown rapidly. Sea Group’s SeaMoney and Grab’s GrabPay are also expanding their banking services. The Philippines, Vietnam, and Bangladesh are at earlier stages but show similar potential.

Africa presents the largest long-term opportunity. The continent has 1.4 billion people, the youngest median age of any continent (roughly 19 years old), and the lowest banking penetration rate globally. Mobile money has already reached hundreds of millions of Africans through services like M-Pesa, but full digital banking services (savings accounts, credit, insurance) have much lower penetration. Companies like TymeBank in South Africa, FairMoney in Nigeria, and Wave in West Africa are building digital banking products for this market.

What 3.6 Billion Means for the Industry

A world with 3.6 billion digital banking customers changes the economics of banking in several ways.

Branch networks become even less economically viable. Banks that maintain large branch footprints will face increasing pressure to close locations as the share of digitally active customers grows. The cost savings from branch closures are significant. Digital banking solutions reduce per-customer servicing costs by 50% to 70% compared to branch-based models, according to industry estimates.

Data becomes a more important competitive asset. Digital banking generates far more data per customer than branch-based banking. Every transaction, every login, every app interaction creates a data point. Banks and neobanks that can use this data effectively to personalise products, assess credit risk, and detect fraud will have a significant advantage over those that cannot.

The competition for deposits intensifies. Traditional banks have historically relied on inertia to retain deposits. Customers kept their money at the same bank for decades because switching was inconvenient. Digital banking makes switching easier. A customer can open a new account and transfer their direct deposit in minutes. This means banks must compete more actively on interest rates, fees, product quality, and user experience to retain deposits.

Cross-selling becomes the primary revenue strategy. With customer acquisition costs falling and switching costs declining, the economics of digital banking favour platforms that can sell multiple products to each customer. SoFi’s path to profitability was built on this model: acquire a customer through student loan refinancing, then cross-sell a checking account, investment account, and personal loan. The companies that can replicate this across different markets will capture a disproportionate share of the 3.6 billion digital banking customer opportunity.







Strategy Unveils New $44B Plan to Fund Bitcoin Purchases

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Strategy is increasingly turning to perpetual preferred stocks to fund its Bitcoin strategy, with the company adding 90,000 BTC to its balance sheet so far this year.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy has announced several capital-raising programs totaling $44.1 billion to fund Bitcoin purchases, including the sale of common shares and two of its dividend-paying equity vehicles.

Strategy plans to raise up to $21 billion by selling Strategy (MSTR) stock and another $21 billion from its high-yield perpetual preferred stock, Stretch (STRC), via new at-the-market programs, the company said in an 8-K filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.

Strategy also intends to sell up to $2.1 billion worth of Strike (STRK) — another of its perpetual preferred stock offerings. The company didn’t specify a timeline for the issuances, stating that shares may be sold “from time to time.”

Source: Michael Saylor

Strategy has been marketing its securities as a way for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin, which is currently down nearly 70% from its all-time high. The company is currently carrying an unrealized loss of 6.3% on its Bitcoin holdings.

Strategy’s revised ATM equity program enables it to sell more shares incrementally into the open market rather than relying on fewer large-scale capital raises from external investors, as it previously did through convertible debt. 

Related: Bitcoin spot volumes fall to 2023 lows as BTC rallies remain news-led

Strategy’s preferred stocks, such as STRC and STRK, give investors monthly dividends while enabling Strategy to grow its Bitcoin holdings without issuing additional MSTR common shares.

Strategy added 90K BTC to its treasury in 3 months

Strategy said it bought 1,031 Bitcoin worth $76.6 million in its latest purchase on Monday, adding to its larger-than-usual purchases this month, which include 17,994 Bitcoin on March 9 and 22,337 Bitcoin on March 16 for a combined $2.9 billion.