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U.S. midterms pack major digital assets wallop as Stand With Crypto preps strategy

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U.S. midterms pack major digital assets wallop as Stand With Crypto preps strategy

Congressional Republicans are already on the ropes in this year’s U.S. midterm elections, and Congress is likely to shift in ways that deeply affect crypto efforts. So, advocacy group Stand With Crypto is gearing up with a slate of candidate endorsements and a new political poll that says neither party has a majority advantage as crypto’s best advocate.

Stand With Crypto, established initially by Coinbase as a pro-crypto group populated by retail investors, is known for its political advocacy, including maintaining a grading system for U.S. politicians. It announced endorsements in six “battleground” races on Thursday, backing congressional incumbents — such as Republican Zach Nunn in Iowa and Democrat Don Davis in North Carolina — who have been supportive of the industry.

The organization will deploy efforts to marshal its membership to vote and will also pay for media campaigns. In two other districts, it said it will oppose politicians with records against crypto interests. And more races will be named as the year goes on, the group said.

In these consequential elections, Stand With Crypto commissioned a survey that outlined a sense of crypto-owning voters in battleground states. The results, released Thursday, show that neither the Republican nor Democratic party has locked down a majority who think they’re better for the industry, though Republicans are favored 45% to 26%, according to the Impact Research study conducted last month.

The snapshot of potential voters, which had a margin of error of 4.4%, said crypto enthusiasts were highly motivated to cast ballots this year, and 64% of those who hold crypto said they’re enthusiastic about supporting pro-crypto candidates.

These midterms could bring significant consequences for the industry. Even if Congress finishes the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act before the November general elections, a number of other crypto legislative needs remain — including a tailoring of the U.S. tax system for crypto, and the establishment of a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve that President Donald Trump ordered. But it’s very likely that Democrats will be running at least one of the congressional chambers by then, and crypto may not be as high a priority as it’s been for Republicans.

Wagers at prediction market firm Kalshi have the chances of Democrats taking the House majority at more than 84%. The odds for the more difficult Democratic path in the Senate is considered closer to a coin flip.

The other House lawmakers endorsed by Stand With Crypto include:

  • Representative Susie Lee, a Nevada Democrat;
  • Representative Mike Lawler, a New York Republican;
  • Representative Greg Landsman, an Ohio Democrat;
  • Representative Rob Bresnahan, a Pennsylvania Republican.

Read More: Stand With Crypto advocacy group sees nearly 700,000 new members ahead of 2026 election

Coinbase, Fannie Mae bring crypto-backed mortgages to home buyers

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Coinbase, Fannie Mae bring crypto-backed mortgages to home buyers

U.S.-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) is working with Fannie Mae-approved mortgage firm Better Home & Finance Holding Co. (BETR), to enable crypto holders to use their digital assets as down payment collateral when buying a home.

The mortgage is structured as a conforming loan backed by Fannie Mae, meaning it carries the same protections and standards as traditional mortgages, according to a press release on Thursday.

Borrowers pledge bitcoin BTC$69,360.54 or the USDC stablecoin as collateral to fund their down payment, allowing them to keep their assets intact and avoid creating a taxable event by spending them. In the case of USDC, they can keep earnings rewards, Coinbase said.

Some 41% of American families fail to buy a home because they don’t have enough funds for the down payment, even though they have money elsewhere in savings, Better founder Vishal Garg said in an interview.

Average homebuyers have been squeezed by increases in interest rates while house prices stay the same, Garg said. Someone looking to buy a $400,000 property, for example, might struggle to find the $40,000 cash down payment, and face a quagmire of legal and tax requirements when trying to sell assets to make the amount, he said.

Provided the consumer is a crypto holder on Coinbase, they can avoid having to file all manner of “crazy stuff,” Garg said, and simply transfer their digital assets from the exchange to a custody wallet with Better while retaining ownership rights.

If Better had previously been accepting crypto as downpayment collateral, “we would have funded maybe 40 billion more of consumer demand over the past few years,” Garg added.

There have been other advances in the crypto-backed mortgages, including some that use Coinbase as custodian. However, the emphasis has tended to be on wealth management and relatively high-end purchases, rather than catering to the average Joe.

In February 2023, Better allowed Amazon (AMZN) employees to pledge their stock as collateral for a loan to cover the down payment on a house purchase, albeit at a slightly higher interest rate.

A spokesman for Coinbase said via email that the rates for the crypto-backed mortgages will be higher than a standard 30-year by between half a percentage point and 1.5 percentage points, depending on the consumer profile.

The token-backed mortgages would be free of margin calls and top-ups, according to a press release. If BTC drops in value, the mortgage terms remain unchanged and no additional collateral is required. Market movements alone never trigger liquidation, Coinbase said.

Borrowers’ collateral is at risk of liquidation only in the event of a 60-day payment delinquency, similar to conventional mortgages, it said.

The product is “as American as apple pie,” said Coinbase’s head of consumer and platform business development, Mark Troianovski, in an interview with CoinDesk.

“People who are sitting on Bitcoin or USDC can put a roof over their head without needing to sell it, without needing to incur capital gains,” Troianovski said. “We are giving people access to housing in a way that is very similar to how private bankers serve some of the wealthiest customers. They don’t sell assets to buy stuff; they actually take loans against assets.”

Everyone’s calling bitcoin (BTC) pricing resilient, may be it’s just complacent: Crypto Daybook Americas

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Everyone’s calling bitcoin (BTC) pricing resilient, may be it’s just complacent: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin’s BTC$69,497.43 been trading in a tight range lately, with volatility indices surprisingly calm despite the Iran war, oil shocks and Fed rate-hike expectations hanging over the market.

Bulls are calling it resilience. But if you zoom out and look at other markets, maybe it is just complacency — and could lead to a brutal reality check.

Take oil, for example. WTI has jumped 37% this month to $91.84, and some analysts are saying $200 isn’t out of the question. Call options on oil are now three times pricier than puts. That’s a pretty clear sign of outsized bullish positioning. All this means more inflation and economic shocks ahead.

In the U.S. Treasury market, the MOVE index, which tracks expected volatility in the backbone of global finance, has shot up 33% to 98.00. Increased volatility in debt of the world’s largest economy, which underpins global finance, typically leads to tightening of credit worldwide.

Compare that with bitcoin’s implied volatility index, BVIV, which has actually slipped 7% to 54%. Resilience or complacency? Some firms think it’s latter.

“Notably, short-dated implied volatilities have compressed to their lowest levels since February, signaling a degree of market complacency regarding this tail risk,” TDX Strategies said in a market note.

The firm recommends “accumulating gamma,” basically, betting on big moves on select altcoins, as a proxy hedge for your portfolio.

As of now, bitcoin is down 2.4% on the day at $69,500. Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), and solana (SOL) are following suit, while non-serious tokens like DOGE$0.09164 are taking a bigger hit, down nearly 5%.

The backdrop isn’t helping: Iran just rejected the U.S. peace plan, laying out conditions that include closing all U.S. bases in the Gulf, reparations for attacks, lifting all sanctions, and keeping its missile program unrestricted. The U.S. probably isn’t going to agree, which leaves the situation deadlocked and risk assets on edge.

The dollar index is climbing, Treasury yields are ticking up, and U.S. stock index futures are in the red. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • March 26, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for week ending March 21 est. 210K (Prev. 205K)
    • March 26, 4:00 p.m.: Fed Gov. Lisa Cook speech on “Reflections on Financial Stability” at Yale
    • March 26, 7:00 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech on “Economic Outlook and Energy Effects” at Global Perspectives Speaker Series, Dallas
    • March 26, 7:10 p.m.: Fed Gov. Michael Barr speech on “Economy”, Washington, D.C.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • March 26: Hyperion DeFi (HYPD), pre-market, -$4.62

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
  • Token Launches
    • March 26: Katana Network (KAT) Epoch 1 for KAT rewards begins

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 1.63%% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $69,946.60 (24hrs: -2.67%)
  • ETH is down 4.04% at $2,079.75 (24hrs: -4.84%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 2.78% at 1,991.19 (24hrs:-3.91%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.74%
  • BTC funding rate is at -0.0023% (-2.5032% annualized) on Binance
  • DXY is up 0.10% at 99.70
  • Gold futures are down 2.91% at $4,417.60
  • Silver futures are down 6.11% at $67.94
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 0.27% at 53,603.65
  • Hang Seng closed down 1.89% at 24,856.43
  • FTSE 100 is down 1.23% at 9,982.48
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.50% at 5,564.52
  • DJIA closed on Wednesday up 0.66% at 46,429.49
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.54% at 6,591.90
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.77% at 21,929.83
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.38% at 32,382.60
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed up 2.35% at 3,562.75
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 6 bps at 4.33%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.83% at 6,585.50
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.96% at 24,135.00
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.76% at 46,355.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 59.98% (0.01%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0299 (-1.65%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 976 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $32.89
  • Total fees: 2.65 BTC / $188,510
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 117,100 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 15.6 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.64%

Technical Analysis

XRP's daily price swings in candlestick format since November 2025. (TradingView)
XRP’s triangular consolidation has resolved bearishly. (TradingView)
  • The chart shows XRP’s daily price swings (UTC) in candlestick format since November 2025.
  • XRP’s price has dropped below a triangular consolidation pattern represented by the two converging trendlines.
  • That’s a signal that bears have established the path of least resistance lower, opening the doors for deeper slides.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $181.10 (+0.03%), -2.07% at $177.36 in pre-market
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.33 (+0.14%), -1.73% at $20.96
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.28 (+0.36%), -2.42% at $8.08
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.16 (+5.79%), -2.51% at $14.78
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.05 (+1.19%), -2.87% at $16.56
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.96 (+3.97%), -2.01% at $9.76
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.29 (+1.25%)
  • CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.30 (+3.68%)
  • Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $103.86 (+2.66%), -2.52% at $101.24
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.43 (+0.16%), -1.63% at $36.82

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $139.13 (+2.11%), -2.03% at $136.31
  • Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.85 (+9.26%), -1.84% at $10.65
  • Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.28 (+1.53%), -3.98% at $6.99
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.19 (+7.21%), -1.68% at $1.17
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.20 (+0.00%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $7.8 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $56.31 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$8.5 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.69 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~5.75 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

Altcoins lead losses as bitcoin slips and derivatives signal bearish turn: Crypto Markets Today

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Altcoins lead losses as bitcoin slips and derivatives signal bearish turn: Crypto Markets Today

The crypto market is reeling from an overnight selloff, with bitcoin BTC$69,553.91 trading lower at $69,400 having lost 2.6% since midnight UTC and ether (ETH) heading back toward $2,000 after tumbling by 4.1%.

The declines come alongside a sharp drop in U.S. equities and precious metals. Nasdaq 100 futures are down by around 1% while gold has lost 1.8%.

Oil, meanwhile, spiked back above $100 per barrel as supposed peace talks between the U.S. and Iran stalled.

The altcoin market was the worst hit, with the CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) and the CoinDesk DeFi Select Index (DFX) tumbling by 4.3% and 3.9%, respectively, during the Asia session.

Zooming out, bitcoin and the broader crypto market are still locked in a price range that has persisted since early February despite multiple attempts to break out to the upside.

Derivatives positioning

  • Deadlock in the Iran-U.S. negotiations seems to have triggered renewed risk aversion, leading to capital outflows from crypto derivatives. The cumulative crypto futures open interest (OI) has declined by 3.5% to $108.30 billion.
  • OI in PAXG fell nearly 11% in 24 hours, with the gold price falling 1.8% to $4,423 an ounce. DOGE, ZEC and TAO are other major OI losers.
  • Some traders may have shorted BTC futures on major exchanges as prices dropped below $70,000 during European hours. That’s evident from the slight uptick in OI in major dollar- and USDT-denominated exchanges to 232K BTC from 229K BTC.
  • ETH, BNB, XPR, SOL, TRX and DOGE are seeing negative fund rates, a sign of increased bias for bearish, short positions.
  • Meanwhile, CC, TRX and BCH stand out with positive cumulative volume deltas pointing to positive positioning while other majors including BTC see seller dominance.
  • In the options market, some traders are chasing downside protection in ether by purchasing risk reversals, a position that involves selling calls to fund put option buys, TDX Strategies said in a market note.
  • On Deribit, BTC and ETH puts remain more expensive than calls across all tenors. At the front end, ether puts are pricier than BTC’s, a sign traders are bracing for a bigger downside in ether in the short-term.

Token talk

  • The crypto market is red across the board on Thursday, but some tokens fared worse than others; AI-focused FET is down by 7.7% while ETHFI and RENDER have given back much of the past week’s gains, dropping by 6.3% and 5.9%, respectively.
  • The “Altcoin Season” index is still at 48/100, suggesting a bullish recovery could be on the cards if the market can find support and consolidate.
  • Around half a dozen tokens out of the top 100 remain in the black over the past 24 hours, these include ethena (ENA), up 2.2%, and layer-1 network tokens XDC, NIGHT and TRX, all between 1% and 2% higher.
  • Overall, worryingly low liquidity that has failed to recover since the tail end of 2025, coupled with the fickle nature of crypto retail traders, could create the perfect storm across the altcoin market, producing an exaggerated downturn.

Lagos State Goes Live with Parametric Flood Insurance Policy, Protecting up to 4 Million People

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Lagos State Goes Live with Parametric Flood Insurance Policy, Protecting up to 4 Million People

The Lagos State government has contracted a parametric flood-risk insurance policy in the Nigerian insurance market, covering up to 4 million vulnerable people and securing up to USD 7.5 million for flood response and recovery.  

 The policy’s activation is a major milestone for the Tripartite Agreement Programme – a public-private partnership between the Insurance Development Forum (IDF), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) through the InsuResilience Solutions Fund (ISF) – to build developing countries’ resilience to climate risk.  

For the coastal megacity of Lagos, with an estimated population of over 22 million people, climate change is intensifying the frequency and impact of flood events. These impacts are exacerbated by rapid urbanization across Lagos State, where low-income households make up 80 percent of the population and insurance penetration is below 0.5 percent. The Tripartite Agreement Programme’s Nigeria project, led by the Government of Lagos State, was launched in 2022 to unlock financial resources for communities to prepare for and recover from climate-impacts. 

His Excellency, the Governor of Lagos State, Babajide Olusola Sanwo-Olu said: “Climate inaction could cost Lagos State just under USD 40 billion by 2050, with severe consequences for our people, infrastructure and economy. Our wetlands and biodiversity are also under threat. These realities demand urgent action. This pioneering parametric flood insurance policy strengthens our ability to protect lives, livelihoods and public finances while embedding climate risk management into Lagos State’s long-term development planning.” 

Dr. Katharina Stasch, Director-General for Multilateral Development Policy; Transformation; Climate, German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), said: “This product highlights the impact that effective collaboration between governments, insurance and development partners, can deliver. As climate risks continue to rise, BMZ is proud to have supported the Tripartite Agreement Programme’s efforts to scale sovereign risk finance and to witness the new alliances and models for cooperation emerging through the programme.” 

The parametric flood-risk product was designed by a team of IDF member insurance organizations in partnership with the Lagos State Government, including AXA Climate, AXA Mansard in Nigeria, Swiss Re, flood modeler JBA Risk Management, satellite company ICEYE and African Risk Capacity Ltd. This work was co-funded by ISF and the IDF insurance industry members and supported by UNDP Nigeria and UNDP’s Insurance and Risk Finance Facility. Partners in Nigeria include the Lagos State Government Office of Sustainable Development Goals (OSDG), the Lagos State Ministry of Finance, Lagos State Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning and the Lagos State Emergency Management Agency (LASEMA).

Marcos Neto, UN Assistant Secretary-General, and Director of UNDP’s Bureau for Policy and Programme Support said: “This milestone in Lagos shows that embedding insurance into public planning can strengthen support for vulnerable communities while advancing inclusive, climate-resilient development. As climate risks intensify, Lagos State is offering a scalable and sustainable model for safeguarding livelihoods and public finances.”

Karina Whalley, Head of Public Sector, AXA Climate and IDF Lagos Project Co-Lead, said: “This policy demonstrates the power of insurance to enable preparedness ahead of and faster recovery after disasters, as well as greater financial resilience for governments; in short, future-ready nations. The product design harnessed our industry members’ technical expertise in flood risk modelling and parametric insurance to develop a scalable solution tailored to the needs of climate-vulnerable communities in Lagos.”  

The insurance product was delivered by the IDF team and received regulatory approval earlier this year. Placement of the product has been enabled through 90 percent of premium finance from the ISF for the first year. The Lagos State government is committed to increasing their premium finance allocation beyond 10 percent in the second and third year of the policy, to ensure the sustainability of the protection provided by the product.  

Dr. Annette Detken, Head of InsuResilience Solutions Fund (ISF), said: “With this policy now live, financial resources can flow quickly and predictably to communities when floods strike, helping to safeguard lives and livelihoods. ISF is proud to have supported this innovative public-private partnership, which demonstrates how government leadership, industry expertise, and development finance can come together to build sustainable, scalable solutions. By committing to long-term financing, Lagos State is laying the groundwork for a national model of climate resilience and financial protection for Nigeria.” 

The policy is now live, enabling the local Government to quickly access funds to support emergency response efforts. This includes disaster relief and direct cash transfers to affected communities in seven local government areas covered by the policy, as has been outlined in the Lagos Flood Contingency Plan which was developed with the support of UNDP and the African Risk Capacity. UNDP is also supporting the Government of Nigeria with the integration of risk finance into Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) 3.0.  

The Government of Nigeria is considering scaling this pioneering insurance solution to other states. The project also offers a blueprint for technology driven flood-risk insurance that can be applied for resilience building in climate-vulnerable countries and cities around the world.

Bitcoin Stares Down Recession as BlackRock CEO Joins Oil Price Warnings

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Bitcoin Stares Down Recession as BlackRock CEO Joins Oil Price Warnings

Bitcoin (BTC) faces a new macro test as markets increasingly bet on the US entering recession in 2026.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin could face a new challenge in the form of its first recession after the COVID-19 crash.

  • US recession odds surge as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns over oil prices.

  • Bitcoin’s high correlation with “extremely oversold” stocks continues.

Moody’s puts 12-month recession odds near 50%

Data highlighted this week by Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, shows recession odds nearing 50%.

Bitcoin’s next bull run could come courtesy of a US economic downturn, and market participants see the latter as more and more likely this year.

“Moody’s Analytics raised the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs increased its estimate to 30%,” Adler noted on X.

Prediction traders agree, with US recession odds reaching 36% on Kalshi — the highest reading since September 2025.

US recession odds for 2026 (screenshot). Source: Kalshi

The US-Iran war and its impact on global oil prices lie at the heart of the surge. Recent claims by both sides about dialogue to end hostilities and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz have caused confusion throughout risk-asset markets.

“That’s keeping upside pressure on oil prices, which is recently crossing a key threshold historically associated with recession,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company commented in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

Mosaic said that oil jumping 50% above its long-term trend, a phenomenon now playing out, “has been seen before or during nearly every recession over the past 50 years.”

“Oil prices are directly correlated to headline inflation, where a $10 increase per barrel can push inflation higher by 0.20% or more,” it added.

Oil price chart with recessions marked. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

Major players echo those concerns, including Larry Fink, CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock.

“We’ll have a global recession,” he told the BBC this week about the consequences of Iran staying a “threat” to the global economy, even if the war itself ended.

Bitcoin stays tied to “extremely oversold” stocks

Bitcoin has had little experience of recession in its lifespan of less than 20 years.

Related: Gold slides as traders eye sub-$50K BTC: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

In 2020, a US recession from February to April preceded a period of major BTC price upside after BTC/USD initially joined risk assets in a global crash in March.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s correlation to US stocks has become stronger this year, potentially increasing the potential for a relief bounce.

“While the uncertainty over inflation and the outlook for monetary are broadly weighing across the market, conditions are very favorable to see at least a short-term rally unfold,” Mosaic commented. 

“Various measures of investor sentiment and positioning are pointing to excessive bearishness in the market while breadth metrics are extending to extremely oversold levels.”

S&P 500 chart. Source: Mosaic Asset Company