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Trump’s efforts to end Iran conflict see ceasefire odds drop to 23.5% by April 30

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President Trump is working to end the conflict with Iran and stop nuclear weapons development. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 have fallen to 23.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday.

The market shows mixed reactions. Immediate ceasefire odds are low: April 7 is at 1.8% YES, down from 8% a day ago. The April 15 market also dropped to 8.5% from 18%. However, the May 31 market is at 45.5% YES, suggesting traders expect progress in the coming months.

$535,634 was traded in the last 24 hours, with a significant 4-point drop on May 31. It takes $25,858 to move the April 7 market 5 points, indicating thin liquidity. The biggest sentiment change is between April 30 and May 31, hinting at a potential development in May.

Trump’s diplomatic efforts could shift strategies, but skepticism persists. The market suggests a potential breakthrough by late May, with May 31 YES shares priced at 46¢, offering a 2.2x return if resolved. Traders are betting on a diplomatic catalyst within 59 days.

Watch for peace talks, CENTCOM statements, or mediation by Oman or Qatar. Rubio and Hegseth’s actions are also key to US strategy.

Markets Impacted

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Coinbase’s AI payments system joins Linux Foundation, gathers support from Google, Stripe, AWS and others

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Coinbase’s AI-focused payment protocol x402 is moving toward becoming an open, standardized infrastructure under the Linux Foundation, the non-profit hub for open-source software development. The move aims to create a community-governed ecosystem for high-frequency, micro transactions that legacy finance can’t efficiently handle.

The protocol has formed an initial governing body, the x402 Foundation, that includes internet services firm Cloudflare and payments giant Stripe, with support from a long list of other big players.

The industry interest in X402 comes as AI-driven commerce expands. Especially, so-called agentic payments, executed autonomously by AI agents, is a hot topic particularly within certain areas of the crypto industry where the belief is that programmable, blockchain-based micro-payments make the most sense.

x402 is designed for these payments. Unlike using ChatGPT as a front-end for a traditional shopping cart, it can handle transactions worth only fractions of a cent at high frequency — something traditional credit card networks struggle to manage.

Now, by using the Linux Foundation to scale an open-source ecosystem, x402 aims to tackle potential interoperability issues by creating an AI commerce equivalent to Secure Sockets Layer (SSL), the standard technology that encrypts the connection between a web server and a browser.

“The internet was built on open protocols,” said Jim Zemlin, CEO of the Linux Foundation. “The x402 Foundation will create an open, community-governed home to develop these capabilities in the open, ensuring they evolve with transparency, interoperability, and broad participation across the ecosystem.”

Coinbase said in a press release on Thursday that additional membership of the foundation will be comprised of participants from multiple verticals with initial intent and support being expressed by Adyen, Amazon Web Services, American Express, Ampersend.ai, Ant International, Base, Circle, Fiserv Merchant Solutions, Google, KakaoPay, Mastercard, Merit Systems, Microsoft, Polygon Labs, PPRO, Sierra. Shopify, Solana Foundation, Thirdweb, and Visa.

“The shift toward agentic commerce requires cloud infrastructure that is as open as the protocols it supports,” said James Tromans, Managing Director, Web3 and Digital Assets, Google Cloud. By joining the x402 Foundation, Google is reinforcing its commitment to interoperable standards that enable secure, AI-driven transactions across platforms.”

Payments veterans from Stripe, Coinbase, and Uber unveil Latitude to power instant global fiat payments

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Most cross-border payment companies are middlemen — built on legacy infrastructure and passing the inefficiencies on to their customers. Latitude is different: purpose-built stablecoin rails, licensed and designed from the ground up for the speed and transparency that global payments have always needed.

The result: settlements in minutes to local bank accounts, 50bps flat at the real interbank rate, no volume commitments, and onboarding in days — not months.

Backed by $8M seed led by NEA with participation from Lightspeed Faction, Coinbase Ventures, Paxos, Bitso, and the Solana Foundation

Latitude, a global payments infrastructure company building a new foundation for cross-border money movement, today announced its launch out of stealth alongside an $8 million seed round led by NEA with participation from Lightspeed Faction, Coinbase Ventures, Paxos, Bitso, and Solana Foundation, among others. Founded by former leaders from Stripe, Coinbase, Uber, Zero Hash, and Facebook, Latitude is addressing one of the most persistent failures in global commerce: sending money across borders is slow, expensive, and operationally complex.

Despite operating in a 24/7 global economy, businesses still rely on legacy banking rails that take two to five business days to settle payments, hide fees across intermediaries, and require fragmented providers by region. Paying someone internationally can feel closer to mailing a check than sending a digital payment.

Why Latitude, Why Now?

The regulatory fog has lifted. With the U.S. establishing the first federal framework for stablecoin payments, the rails are finally clear, and demand for a full-stack blockchain-native solution that can move money globally, instantly, and compliantly is surging. The moment extends beyond stablecoins as new payment use cases emerge. AI agents will default to the simplest and most programmatic stack. Merchants selling globally will favor the most reliable, affordable, and cost-effective local-currency solution. Latitude was built for exactly this moment.

Built by Payments Operators

Latitude was founded by payments veterans who have spent their careers building the infrastructure that powers global commerce. CEO Cyril Mathew spent over a decade at the intersection of payments and stablecoins. At Uber, he led international driver and payment partnerships. At Coinbase, he led USDC growth. At Stripe, he led the launch of creator payouts via stablecoins across more than 100 countries. Across each, the lesson was the same: payments must be instant, intuitive, and settle in local currency.

“Global payments shouldn’t operate on infrastructure designed for a different era,” said Cyril Mathew, co-founder and CEO of Latitude. “Uber taught me that gig workers need money now. Coinbase taught me that crypto needs simplicity. Stripe taught me that stablecoins need local-currency connectivity to matter. Each company gave me a lesson the next one needed, and Latitude is where they all land. A fully regulated platform with stablecoins as the engine and local currency as the destination, moving money across borders instantly, and at a fraction of what businesses pay today.”

He is joined by co-founders Brian Wrightson (CTO), who was an early engineer in adtech and targeting at Facebook before building enterprise products at Stripe, and Vivek Morzaria, who worked on business and corporate development at Uber, Lime and OpenSea, driving deals representing billions in value. Together, the team brings 25 years of combined experience in payments, fintech, and financial infrastructure. Having scaled payments across some of the world’s most ambitious companies, the team kept hitting the same wall: moving money globally was still slow, opaque, and broken.

What Latitude Does

Latitude is simple by design. Global Payouts, our flagship product, offers a flat rate of 50bps in every market it serves, the interbank FX rate guaranteed, instant settlement to local bank accounts in fiat, and onboarding in days, not months. No volume commitments. No hidden spreads. Ever.

Underpinning this is the Latitude Liquidity Network, a modern settlement infrastructure combining stablecoin rails, built-in compliance, and direct local payout connectivity across 50+ countries, built from the ground up on new financial rails rather than legacy infrastructure. For fintechs and digital wallets building on stablecoins, Latitude’s embeddable on/off ramps tap directly into this network, providing local bank-to-stablecoin connectivity with minimal integration friction and competitive fees.

“In fintech, regulatory clarity and technical innovation rarely arrive at the same time, but that’s exactly what’s happening now,” said Rick Yang, Partner and Head of Technology Investing at NEA. “I’ve seen what it takes to win in financial infrastructure and payments. I believe Latitude has the regulatory depth, the technical architecture, and most importantly, the team that an opportunity like this demands.”

In Less Than a Year

In months, Latitude has built what most companies take several years to build:

  • A real-time liquidity & payout network spanning 50 countries, wired natively with stablecoin liquidity so funds arrive in local currency, instantly
  • 38 state money transmission licenses or approvals secured at record speed, secured faster than any competitor
  • Direct integrations into major stablecoin issuers and U.S. bank partners: no middlemen, no legacy overhead, no hidden markups
  • Two products live, a third on the launchpad: global payouts for platforms, consumer on/off ramps built on local payment methods, and business dollar accounts for companies moving money across borders

“Switching to Latitude was one of the easier decisions we’ve made,” said Adrian Lopez, CEO of Zencastr. “We’re paying our creators in markets and settling in local currency instantly, and finally working with a payments partner that’s expanding into the same markets we care about. The support and flexibility have been a breath of fresh air — we’re not just a ticket in a queue anymore.”

If you move money internationally, Latitude was built for you. Whether that’s paying sellers, contractors, freelancers, or gig workers, or powering local currency on/off-ramps for neobanks and digital wallets.

Bitcoin Bulls Must Clear $76K To Avoid New Lows In 2026

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) range-bound trading within the $60,000 to $73,000 range is impressive, especially when considering the macroeconomic backdrop of Brent crude oil rising to levels not seen since 2008, a hot war between the US, Israel and Iran, and a volatile stock market where the S&P 500 index trades at a 3.95% year-to-date loss. 

Despite these intensifying headwinds, Bitcoin buyers have shown a steady appetite for buying the price drops to $60,000, and while the level currently holds as support, the risk of lower prices is not zero.   

Bitcoin’s 1-day chart shows a bearish continuation pattern, with one pattern confirmed on Jan. 20 as BTC price entered a correction to $60,014, and a second bear flag currently in play. Every price rally to the flag’s overhead trendline has been rebuffed since Feb. 8, and technical analysis stresses the importance of a rally and multi-day candle close above $76,000 to negate the pattern. 

Ideally, a rally to $76,000 would hold through a 2- to 3-day consecutive-candle close, followed by a retest of the trendline at $75,000 to confirm a support-resistance flip, where a former resistance level is now confirmed as support. 

Analysis by chartered market technician Aksel Kibar predicts a potential price drop to $52,500. Referencing analysis from March 18, Kibar said that a,

“Breakdown of the lower boundary will be the signal for a possible move toward $52,500.”

Bearish Bitcoin rising wedge backs $52,500 price prediction. Source: Aksel Kibar / X

Related: Bitcoin traders forecast short-term downside even as BTC price chases $68K

Data from Velo highlights the relatively flat market demand across Bitcoin’s spot and futures markets. Although traders appear to view instances where BTC’s funding rate turns negative as a buying opportunity, their confidence is largely absent during rallies into the bear flag’s trendline resistance.

Evidence of this is seen in Bitcoin’s aggregated open interest remaining pinned below $20 billion, a level not seen since Feb. 2 when BTC traded near $79,000.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Velo

Regarding Kibar’s $52,500 price prediction and its alignment with Bitcoin’s futures markets, Hyblock liquidation heatmap data shows a large number of leveraged long positions at risk of liquidation if BTC falls into the $63,000 to $65,000 range.

Below this is a liquidity gap, and the next block of open margin long positions starts in the $57,500 to $56,000 range.

BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap, 1-month lookback. Source: Hyblock

The current price action essentially reflects a market that trades sideways and consolidates as traders search for capital flow or narrative-related factors that would push them into larger directional bets.

Until such a catalyst emerges, it’s likely that Bitcoin will continue to trade within its $10,000 range, with $60,000 as the lowest key support and $70,000 as the most challenging level of resistance.