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Bitcoin May Be Mispricing Prolonged Iran War Risk, Hedge Fund Veteran Says

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In the latest interview with Cointelegraph, macro investor and former hedge fund manager James Lavish issued a stark warning to Bitcoin holders and global investors: markets may be pricing in a quick resolution to the Iran conflict — but if that assumption proves wrong, the consequences could be severe.

Lavish argued that if the conflict drags on and keeps pressure on oil prices, the result could be a fresh inflation shock, renewed fears of stagflation and a major repricing across global markets.

In his view, this scenario would put the Federal Reserve in an impossible position: unable to raise rates aggressively without risking recession, yet unable to cut rates due to persistent inflation.

That is where the conversation becomes especially relevant for Bitcoin (BTC). Lavish explains why Bitcoin has behaved differently from gold and equities in recent months, and why that relative resilience may not last in a true “correlation-to-one” panic event. 

If markets suffer a deeper drawdown, he says, Bitcoin could fall another 10% to 20%, potentially revisiting the low $50,000 or even high $40,000 range.

And yet, Lavish is far from bearish in the long run.

One of the most compelling parts of the interview is his argument that such a sell-off would not destroy the Bitcoin thesis — it could actually create a major opportunity. He also explains why investors should avoid being either too levered or completely unexposed in a market driven by war headlines, bond stress and rapidly shifting expectations around Fed policy.

The interview also touches on safe haven investments, energy markets, Treasury yields and money printing. 

If you want to understand how an experienced macro investor thinks about war risk, recession risk and Bitcoin’s next move, watch the full interview on our YouTube channel and don’t forget to subscribe!

This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.

Bitcoin Miner MARA Slashes 15% of Workforce After Selling $1.1 Billion in BTC

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In brief

  • Bitcoin miner MARA cut 15% of its workforce amid the firm’s shifting focus to AI.
  • The layoffs, reportedly not due to financial constraints, follow its recent $1.1 billion Bitcoin sale.
  • Shares in MARA finished Thursday up more than 8%, but are down 53% in the last six months.

Publicly traded Bitcoin miner MARA has cut its workforce by 15% shortly after it sold $1.1 billion worth of the top crypto asset, the company confirmed to Decrypt following an initial report from Blockspace Media.

Citing sources close to the matter, the publication reported that the cuts impact full-time employees across departments, and may also impact contractors for the firm. 

“MARA remains focused on executing our strategic evolution from a pure-play Bitcoin miner into an energy and digital infrastructure company,” a spokesperson from MARA told Decrypt.

“As our company evolves, so too must our operations and where we focus our resources. With this in mind, as part of our broader growth strategy, we made the difficult but necessary decision to reduce our team by approximately 15%,” they added.

According to an internal memo reviewed by Blockspace, the firm’s CEO Fred Thiel indicated the decision was not “purely a financial decision—it’s a strategic one.” 

“As we’ve been sharing through our recent announcements with Starwood and Exaion, we’re focusing the company in a new direction,” he said. “That means the shape of our team needs to change with it.” 

Thiel’s reported comments refer to the firm’s strategic pivot into AI data centers and empowering AI compute, noting its recent partnership with the data center development platform of Starwood Digital Ventures and its investment in Exaion, a firm that develops and operates data centers in Europe. 

MARA, like other Bitcoin miners, has made a strategic shift to power AI and further high performance computing needs, broadening its focus far beyond the top crypto asset. Recently, the firm announced the sale of approximately 15,000 BTC or more than $1.1 billion worth, allowing it to repurchase convertible debt and strengthen its finances. 

That sale came after it had approved a strategic decision that allowed  it to sell Bitcoin from its balance sheet, not just BTC that it had mined in operations. 

It’s not the only Bitcoin miner offloading its primary reserve asset. Rival miner Riot Platforms sold around $250 million in BTC during Q1, after netting around $200 million in proceeds from sales in Q4. Plus, earlier this year, Cango parted with more than $300 million in BTC as it also pivots to AI. 

Shares in MARA finished Thursday up more than 8%, trading hands at $8.71. Shares are down more than 53% in the last six months, though, as Bitcoin has fallen nearly 47% from its all-time high of $126,080 to trade around $67,000.

MARA is hardly the only crypto firm to cut staff in recent months, most notably with Jack Dorsey’s Bitcoin-aligned firm Block slashing over 4,000 jobs in February. Other companies in the space that have made recent cuts include Gemini, Crypto.com, the Algorand Foundation, and OP Labs. In some cases, including Block and Gemini, the companies cited an increasing reliance on AI tools to make up for fewer employees.

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Schwab plans spot crypto trading launch in first half of 2026, starting with BTC, ETH

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Brokerage services giant Charles Schwab plans to roll out spot cryptocurrency trading in the first half of 2026, pushing it deeper into digital assets.

“We remain on track to launch our spot crypto offer in the first half of 2026, starting with bitcoin and ether (ETH),” a company spokesperson told CoinDesk on Friday.

The firm has opened a waitlist for clients seeking early access to what it calls a “Schwab Crypto” account, which will allow users to buy and sell the two largest cryptocurrencies. The firm will offer the service via Charles Schwab Premier Bank, SSB.

The move builds on comments from CEO Rick Wurster, who said last July that Schwab aimed to introduce crypto trading “sometime soon” in response to client demand. He framed the effort as a way to bring digital assets into the same account view as stocks and bonds in a push toward a more unified investment platform.

Schwab’s scale could give it an edge as it enters a market long dominated by crypto-native exchanges. The firm reported $11.9 trillion in client assets in 2025, offering a built-in base of retail and institutional investors who may prefer trading crypto within a familiar brokerage environment rather than using standalone platforms.

The firm already allows clients to invest in ETFs linked to cryptocurrencies and trade bitcoin futures on its platform. It also launched the Schwab Crypto Thematic Index (STCE), an ETF that tracks the performance of companies linked to the digital asset sector.

Solo Bitcoin Miner Wins $210K Block Reward

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A solo Bitcoin miner secured a roughly $210,000 block reward on Thursday, proving that the so-called “mining lottery” is still paying out even if industrial operators dominate the network.

The miner, connected to CKPool’s solo service, found block 943,411 and earned 3.139 BTC in subsidy and transaction fees, according to data from block explorer mempool.space.

Solo mining remains rare. Statistics compiled by Bennet’s tracker show that solo mining pools have found just 20 Bitcoin (BTC) blocks over the last 12 months, paying out a total of 62.96 BTC, roughly one win every 18.7 days on average. The longest “drought” between blocks was 58 days, and the previous solo win came on Feb. 28.

The win comes as Bitcoin mining grows increasingly competitive. Network difficulty, the measure of how hard it is to find a block, recently recorded its steepest adjustment since February, falling about 7.7% before rebounding 3.87% in the past 24 hours, reflecting weaker hashrate and briefly improving miners’ odds.

Bitcoin difficulty relief is fleeting

Even so, current difficulty levels remain near historic highs, meaning the probability of any single solo miner discovering a block is still vanishingly small.

Related: Solo Bitcoin miner bags over $200K block reward using rented hashrate

Public trackers like CoinWarz show Bitcoin’s difficulty has climbed orders of magnitude over the past decade, with only brief downward adjustments when miners switch off unprofitable rigs or redirect machines to other workloads such as artificial intelligence.

Bitcoin difficulty over time. Source: CoinWarz

As difficulty grinds higher and input costs rise, the economics of mining increasingly favor large, well-capitalized operators over hobbyists.

Major listed Bitcoin miners are responding by reshaping their balance sheets and fleet strategies rather than betting on luck. Riot Platforms sold 3,778 BTC during the first quarter of 2026, according to a Thursday release, adding to a number of crypto miners and firms that have sold Bitcoin recently, including MARA Holdings, Genius Group and Nakamoto Holdings.

Against that institutional backdrop, the CKPool win stands out as a reminder that individuals can still, on rare occasions, beat the odds.

Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author