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9 in 10 See Commercial Variable Recurring Payments as the Way Forward

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WHY THIS MATTERS: The findings from GoCardless underline a critical inflection point: the friction and cost inherent in traditional card networks for subscriptions have become commercially unsustainable, costing UK businesses an average of 3.5% of their monthly revenue. This is not simply a pricing issue; it’s a systemic operational drag impacting customer retention and cash flow. The impending arrival of commercial Variable Recurring Payments (VRPs) and other forms of open banking payments shifts this dynamic entirely. VRPs represent the most significant upgrade to the UK’s payment infrastructure in a generation, providing a more stable, bank-led rail for recurring revenue that promises to drastically cut involuntary churn and administrative overhead. For regulated industries like financial services and telecoms, which are currently in the first wave of adoption, this is a strategic imperative that separates early movers who prioritize operational stability from those stuck on legacy systems.

A new study from bank payment company GoCardless has revealed that UK businesses are being held back by outdated systems, with legacy methods becoming increasingly untenable. 

The report, Revolutionising Recurring Revenue, found that with the upcoming introduction of commercial Variable Recurring Payment (VRPs), industries such as utilities, financial services, and telcos are poised to significantly reduce lost revenue and improve customer retention. 

The research, which surveyed 489 UK recurring revenue business leaders, shows widespread dissatisfaction with existing rails. Nearly three-quarters (73%) report ongoing pain points with card payments. 42% of respondents spend more than three hours per week managing related issues and combined with fraud and admin overhead, this payment method costs businesses an average of 3.5% of their monthly revenue. 

A high-impact solution for regulated sectors 

Against this backdrop, commercial VRPs are viewed as a strategic unlock. Among decision-makers in the first wave* of the rollout, 89% believe the technology would significantly improve cash flow, while 91% expect it to reduce operational costs. 

Consumer readiness further strengthens the commercial case. Research among 2,000 UK adults shows meaningful demand, with 38% open to adopting the technology, rising to 60% among Gen Z. Interest is highest in essential services, with 46% willing to use commercial VRPs for energy bills and 35% for telecoms. 

Business leaders prioritise operational simplicity and stability  

The research findings indicate strong demand for commercial VRPs. At this juncture, execution is what matters. When asked what would encourage their adoption or increase their use of open banking payments including commercial VRPs, 41% of businesses cited the ability to access open banking payments through their existing payment provider. The same proportion (41%) pointed to greater coverage, or more banks offering open banking payments to consumers. 

Commercial VRPs represent one of the most significant upgrades to the UK’s payment infrastructure in a generation. The report emphasises that early movers will gain the advantage. In addition, choosing the right partner is essential to reducing execution risk and ensuring a smooth transition.   

Shaun Puckrin, Chief Product Officer at GoCardlesssaid: “The numbers don’t lie: the era of settling for high-friction, legacy payment methods is over. We’re seeing openness and demand from both sides of the checkout for a more intelligent, bank-led alternative. As a company that has specialised in bank payments for 15 years, it’s incredibly exciting to see the industry catching up and working together in the live testing phase to prove out commercial VRPs and we’re confident that our solution, Recurring Pay by Bank, makes adoption viable and highly effective today.” 

To read the full report, visit: https://gocardless.com/g/the-strategic-opportunity-of-commercial-vrps/

FF NEWS TAKE: This study moves the needle by quantifying the immense, often-overlooked cost of card payment failure, framing VRPs as a mandatory efficiency solution, not just an alternative. The market has definitively signaled that Variable Recurring Payments are the future of recurring revenue. The next phase is an aggressive focus on execution: we need to watch which major payment providers quickly roll out embedded VRP solutions to offer the ubiquitous bank coverage that businesses are clearly demanding. The competitive advantage will go to platforms that minimize complexity and integrate this bank-led capability seamlessly.

 

Why Bearish Bets and ETF Flows May Spark a Rally

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Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin hitting $72,000 would liquidate $2.5 billion in shorts, potentially crushing bears who are overleveraged.

  • Iran’s war and high oil prices currently pressure BTC, but a ceasefire or ETF inflows could spark a rapid recovery.

$2.5 billion in shorts at risk if BTC hits $72,000

Bitcoin (BTC) has consistently failed to hit new highs since attempting to reclaim the $75,000 level since March 17.

Bearish Bitcoin futures bets have been piling up as the war in Iran pushed oil prices to their highest levels since June 2022. However, two events could propel Bitcoin to $72,000 in the coming weeks and help cement a sustainable bull run.

BTC futures aggregate estimated liquidation levels, USD. Source: Coinglass

According to Coinglass estimates, a total of $2.5 billion in short positions on Bitcoin futures will be liquidated if Bitcoin rises just 7.5% to $72,000 from the current $67,100 level.

BTC bears benefit from miners’ sales, weak S&P 500

Bears have been adding shorts since March 25, when Iran reportedly refused to negotiate a ceasefire. Additional selling pressure emerged as MARA Holdings (MARA US) announced it sold 15,133 BTC on March 26. The publicly listed Bitcoin miner shifted its focus to AI computing and chose to reduce its Bitcoin holdings to pay down debt.

After peaking near 7,000 points on Jan. 28, the S&P 500 dropped 10% by March 30. Investors fear recession risks because central banks have less room to cut interest rates due to inflation.

Oil prices have jumped over 70% since the war in Iran started in late February, which hikes logistics costs and cuts into consumer spending.

Interest rate target odds for the Sept. FOMC meeting. Source: Source: CME FedWatch Tool

Traders are pricing in 89% odds that the Fed will keep interest rates steady through September, with 5% odds of a hike to 4%.

In early March, bond futures showed the opposite, with 79% odds of rate cuts. Returns on fixed-income investments will likely stay attractive for longer.

Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas

Meanwhile, confidence among Bitcoin bears has increased, as reflected by the negative funding rate in perpetual futures contracts.

In neutral market conditions, longs usually pay to keep positions open, causing this indicator to range between 5% and 10% to compensate for capital costs.

Negative funding rates signal a lack of demand for bullish leveraged bets and potential overconfidence from the bears.

Ceasefire or economic weakness may boost Bitcoin

While it is impossible to predict the outcome of the war involving Iran, a ceasefire agreement could spark bullish sentiment and catch bears by surprise.

Bitcoin jumped from $69,150 to $74,900 during the five days ending March 16 after US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw $1.5 billion in net inflows over two weeks. If ETF inflows resume, Bitcoin could also reclaim the $72,000 level.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs ‘will be larger’ than gold ETFs–Analyst

US-listed Bitcoin ETF daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue

US President Donald Trump has asked Congress to boost defense spending to $1.5 trillion, according to a 2027 budget proposal released Friday. These plans include a 10% cut in other areas to offset military expenses.

Trump reportedly said at a private White House event on Wednesday: “We’re fighting wars. We can’t take care of day care,” according to CNBC.

If the US economy loses steam, or if private credit redemptions continue to pressure the market, investors will likely look for alternative hedges.

Consequently, Bitcoin’s appeal would grow as the it presently trades 47% below its all-time high. Thus, a bull run to $72,000 might happen regardless of how long the war in Iran lasts.