The Iranian government’s attempt to block the Telegram messaging application in the country has backfired, as users find ways to circumvent national firewalls and online controls, according to Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov.
“Iran banned Telegram years ago,” Durov said on Friday; however, tens of millions of users in the country have managed to access the application via virtual private networks (VPNs) and other similar tools, he added.
VPNs route web traffic through servers distributed around the globe to mask the true Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of users and obscure their locations. This allows individuals with VPN access to bypass national online restrictions. Durov said:
“The government hoped for mass adoption of its surveillance messaging apps, but got mass adoption of VPNs instead. Now, 50 million members of the digital resistance in Iran are joined by over 50 million more in Russia.”
Source: Pavel Durov
Decentralized technologies like blockchain, crypto and encrypted messaging applications can mitigate or neutralize state-imposed online restrictions and surveillance infrastructure, promoting individual liberty, proponents of decentralized technology say.
Related: Global turmoil pushes uptake of decentralized messengers, social media
Users turn to decentralized alternatives amid online blackouts
The government of Iran imposed a nationwide internet blackout in January 2026, amid growing protests and civil unrest, which is still in effect due to the ongoing war between Israel, the United States and Iran.
Residents in the country can still access the internet through Starlink, a satellite-based network, despite the government’s ban on it, or communicate via BitChat, a messaging application that uses Bluetooth radio waves to form a mesh network between devices.
BitChat’s mesh network transforms each device into a relay node that transfers data to other devices running the application within range, bypassing online and satellite-based systems entirely.
The components of the BitChat messaging application tech stack. Source: GitHub
The government of Nepal imposed a social media ban in September 2025 amid growing protests, causing a spike in BitChat downloads.
Bitchat was downloaded over 48,000 times in Nepal the week of the social media ban, and the government of Nepal was toppled by protestors that same month.
The application recorded a similar download spike in Madagascar amid protests, which also occurred around the same time as the political revolution in Nepal.
Magazine: Did Telegram’s Pavel Durov commit a crime? Crypto lawyers weigh in
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In Southeast Asia, economic development has transformed much of the region. Brunei, having been blessed with, has seen its economy transform last century. Will this century continue to see that and will the like of fintech help?
Around the rest of Southeast Asia, notably in neighbouring Singapore and Malaysia for instance, fintech and wider digital economic development has been playing significant roles in recent economic development. How has fintech in Brunei been and can this have a similar role as it is in the rest of Southeast Asia?
Digital Transformation as Economic Diversification
Fintech development in Brunei is closely tied to its long-term economic vision. Under Wawasan Brunei 2035, the government has prioritised diversification, human capital development and innovation, positioning financial services and technology as key pillars of the economy.
This vision has translated into targeted policy action. The Financial Sector Blueprint 2016–2025, implemented by the central bank, laid the groundwork for fintech development through infrastructure, regulation and institutional coordination.
This year, a new financial sector blueprint is being developed, with a stronger emphasis on Islamic finance and sustainable finance as growth areas.
Digital transformation is central to this shift. Government initiatives aimed at building a national digital transaction hub, which is designed to integrate payment systems, digital wallets and cross-border transactions, reflect a broader ambition to modernise the financial ecosystem.
To note, among Association for Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) members in 2022, Brunei has the second-highest human development index and the third-highest digital adoption index, implying high quality of life and financial literacy.
With regards to fintech, Brunei has identified fintech as a key driver in increasing the contribution of the country’s financial sector to 8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035 from 5.6 per cent in 2020.
Financial Services Sector: Digital Transformation in Practice
Exterior of the Omar Ali Saifuddin in Bandar Seri Begawan Brunei on the island of Borneo IMAGE SOURCE GETTY
Brunei’s financial services sector remains relatively small but highly structured, with strong regulatory oversight from the central bank. Digital transformation is now accelerating within this framework.
A key milestone came in March last year with the launch of “tarus,” Brunei’s first national real-time payment system, enabling instant fund transfers between financial institutions. This system represents a significant step forward. It allows users to send money using simple identifiers, such as mobile numbers, bringing Brunei in line with real-time payment systems across ASEAN markets.
At the same time, the National Payment Hub Initiative continues to drive interoperability between banks and payment providers, ensuring that digital transactions can move seamlessly across platforms.
Banks are also adapting.
Digital banking services, mobile applications and e-KYC processes are becoming standard, supported by regulatory frameworks that emphasise security, compliance and interoperability.
Telecommunications providers, including Progresif, are increasingly integrating fintech services such as mobile payments and digital wallets into their offerings, further expanding access to digital financial tools.
The result is a financial system that is gradually becoming more digital, more connected and more efficient.
Fintech Ecosystem: Small but Structured
aerial view of Sungai Kebun Bridge with the water village at Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei Darussalam. night shot IMAGE SOURCE GETTY
Brunei’s fintech ecosystem remains in its early stages, but it is evolving. Estimates suggest that the country hosts fewer than 10-20 fintech companies, with activity concentrated in payments, remittances and financial infrastructure. Examples of those include digital banking solution BIBD Nexgen Wallet and mobile banking app Baiduri b.Digital Personal (part of Baiduri Bank).
Rather than rapid startup growth, the ecosystem is shaped by institutional support. For instance, the Brunei Darussalam Central Bank (BDCB) established a fintech office in 2017 to promote innovation and provide a single point of contact for fintech development.
Also, country’s regulatory sandbox, first introduced in 2017 and updated in 2020, continues to serve as a controlled environment for testing fintech solutions.
Innovation initiatives are also expanding. For example, last year, BDCB, in collaboration with industry partners, launched the Fintellect Fintech Hackathon, aimed at fostering local fintech talent and encouraging new digital solutions.
Unlike many emerging markets, Brunei does not face severe financial inclusion challenges. Access to banking services is relatively high, supported by a well-developed financial system. However, opportunities remain in deepening digital usage and expanding financial services for specific segments.
One such segment is the country’s large foreign workforce, which represents around 23 per cent of the population and creates demand for affordable remittance solutions. At the same time, high transaction costs for traditional banking services, in particular interbank transfers, highlight the need for more efficient digital alternatives.
Fintech solutions, particularly in payments and remittances, are well positioned to address these gaps.
In terms of partnerships there have been several. Besides those mentioned earlier there have been others.
For instance, last year, Northern Trust announced signed an MOU with Universiti Brunei Darussalam (UBD) to develop digital and fintech talent and strengthen academic-industry collaboration.
Internationally, Brunei continues to align with global standards in areas such as AML, data protection and cross-border financial integration, reinforcing its position within ASEAN financial networks.
Brunei’s fintech ecosystem in 2026 is not defined by speed. The country is using digital finance as a tool for economic diversification, building a system that prioritises stability, interoperability and long-term sustainability.
Richie is a global economic development advisor and Managing Partner of Santos-Diaz LLC, specializing in international trade and foreign direct investment across the UK, Middle East, and North America. With over 15 years of experience and a Masters from SOAS University of London, he has advised high-level governments and multinational corporates while contributing to major outlets like Forbes and the World Economic Forum. Currently based in Dubai, he leverages his background in emerging markets and RegTech to bridge the gap between global policy and private sector growth.
View all posts
Executive Economic Development Advisor (Emerging Markets) | Contributor
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A crypto analyst has shared a new Bitcoin price roadmap, outlining where the market currently is and projecting the cryptocurrency’s next moves amidthe ongoing bear market. While some experts still see more downside ahead for BTC, this analyst predicts a massive surge back above $90,000. The analyst cites several catalysts, including Bitcoin price action and theElliot Wave structure, to support his bullish outlook.
Bitcoin Price Roadmap To $90,000
Rawl, a crypto market expert on X, has presented a new price analysis of Bitcoin, outlining in detail how the cryptocurrency can return to $90,000 and what traders should expect in the coming weeks and months. The analyst noted that, so far, Bitcoin has been following an expected plan, suggesting that therecent pullbacks, rebounds, and other price changes were normal reactions.
He said that although the market’s timeline has been the only surprise, the cryptocurrency’s structure is what truly matters. Rawl stated that, followingBitcoin’s price crash to $60,000 in February, which marked its lowest level since its2025 all-time high, the cryptocurrency needed two more waves to complete its corrective structure.
As expected, Bitcoin went on to form Wave 4 and Wave 5 in its Elliott Wave setup, completing the full corrective Wave C chart structure. He added thatBTC’s previous pullback to $63,000 counted as one wave and officially confirmed the final downward move.
Since then, Rawl noted that the market has rebounded, starting a new bullish Elliott Wave phase. In this fresh setup, the analyst stated that Bitcoin has already printed Wave 1 and Wave 2, with the market presently ina choppy range around $65,000 ahead of its next two waves to the upside.
BTCUSD now trading at $67,104. Chart: TradingView
He explained that once these waves complete, Bitcoin could rise quickly toward $90,000 to $96,000. After hitting that level, he expects it to move sideways for a few weeks before declining again as it enters a newcorrective ABC wave, likely around the time a new Federal Reserve chair replaces Jerome Powell. He described this correction as a bullish move, noting that it could persist until the upcoming FOMC meeting in June.
The analyst noted that the price action following the FOMC could complete the first corrective Wave C, allowing the market to resume its uptrend. Alternatively, Bitcoin could drop one more time toward the $71,000 to $74,000 range, forming the next Wave 2 before a larger rally begins.
Rawl confidently stated that Bitcoin has an 80% chance of reaching a new all-time high this year. He noted that the remaining 20% possibility suggests that price could rise to the $116,000 to $125,000 range below its current cycle top.
Analyst Outlines Other Likely Path For Bitcoin Price
Although Rawl strongly believes in the roadmap he outlined above, he acknowledged that a less likely scenario is thatBitcoin could experience a deeper pullback between May and June, falling below $74,000 and possibly crashing to $55,000.
Because of this risk, the analyst recommends taking profits of 20-30% around the $90,000 range, then gradually buying back 10-15% of that position if Bitcoin dips to $74,000, and the rest if the price falls to $55,000 in June or by Q1 2027. Regardless of what happens to Bitcoin, the analyst still believes the cryptocurrency could hit an all-time high afterward.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
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XBTO, a global institutional digital asset solutions, has secured commitments toward a $217million capital raise. The new funding is earmarked to support the next major phase of its institutional digital asset platform and broader business expansion.
As part of this significant financial initiative, XBTO has entered into a strategic partnership with ValueLabs, a global technology and Agentic AI services firm. The agreement sees ValueLabs taking a minority equity stake in XBTO Global Limited, the holding company for the XBTO Group.
A shift toward mandate-driven exposure
The $217million investment arrives at a critical juncture for the industry, as institutional participation in digital assets matures from cautious, speculative exploration to formal, mandate-driven exposure. Sovereign wealth funds, insurance platforms, and private banks are increasingly seeking highly structured entry points into the market. Consequently, the industry is witnessing a definitive shift toward service providers that can seamlessly combine balance-sheet strength with rigorous regulatory oversight.
Operating entities within XBTO are currently regulated by the Bermuda Monetary Authority (BMA) and the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) in Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM).
Three strategic priorities for capital deployment
XBTO has outlined three specific strategic priorities for the new capital, painting a clear picture of where institutional demand is currently concentrating:
Scaling client-facing technology: The firm intends to scale its technology infrastructure into a definitive “one-stop shop” for institutions and High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs). This involves significantly strengthening its custody architecture under BMA and ADGM frameworks to support asset safeguarding and execution services at a true institutional scale.
Seeding new hedge fund strategies: XBTO will seed additional hedge funds, managed accounts, and structured products. These will span directional, market-neutral, and yield strategies specifically designed to perform consistently across various market cycles.
Developing structured credit: The company plans to launch Lombard-style secured credit solutions for digital asset holders. This will feature institutional-grade collateral management and strict risk controls.
Integrating Agentic AI into digital finance
The partnership with ValueLabs is designed to bridge traditional trading, wealth, and asset management with the evolving digital asset ecosystem. ValueLabs brings deep engineering expertise and its proprietary AiDE platform—an Enterprise Operating System built for the Agentic Era. This collaboration is expected to strengthen XBTO’s core technology foundation and accelerate the delivery of its digital finance solutions.
Industry perspectives
Philippe Bekhazi, founder, chairman, and CEO of XBTO
Philippe Bekhazi, founder, chairman, and CEO of XBTO, stated that the firm’s mission has always been to provide a world-class environment where institutional and high-net-worth capital feels at home.
“The vision for XBTO has been to provide a level of bespoke service and comprehensive asset management that has, until now, been reserved for the sophisticated echelons of traditional finance,” Bekhazi explained. “This partnership with ValueLabs allows us to reinforce that vision at an accelerated pace, delivering secure, sophisticated, and institutional grade services, in a regulated environment.”
Arjun Rao, founder and chairman of ValueLabs, echoed this sentiment, noting that his firm sees digital assets not merely as a standalone sector, but as a core, fundamental component of the future financial architecture.
“Our partnership with XBTO reflects a shared belief that institutional-grade technology, automation, and regulatory discipline are essential to scaling digital finance responsibly,” Rao said. “By combining our Agentic AI capabilities with XBTO’s market leadership, we are focused on enabling an intelligent, resilient ecosystem that allows institutions to engage with digital assets with confidence.”
Bitcoin BTC$67,313.23 tends to outperform traditional safe haven assets like gold in the two months following major global crises, according to new analysis from Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin.
The study, led by Rony Szuster, head of research at the Latin American crypto platform, examined 60-day windows after economic or geopolitical shocks such as the COVID-19 outbreak and U.S. tariff escalations. Bitcoin posted stronger returns than both gold and the S&P 500 in each of the periods analyzed.
In April last year, after the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs, the price of bitcoin jumped 24% over the following 60 days. Gold rose 8%, and the S&P 500 gained 4%, the firm found.
A similar pattern emerged at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, when BTC rose 21%, while the other assets trailed.
Szuster cautioned that judging bitcoin’s performance too soon after a crisis can be misleading.
“It’s like watching the first few minutes of a movie and thinking you already know how it ends,” he said. “In moments like this, investors sell positions to reduce risk or raise cash, and even defensive assets can fall.”
That happens as investors scramble for liquidity, yet bitcoin has consistently bounced back, the firm found. The pattern appears to be repeating in the current U.S.-Iran conflict, where bitcoin is the only one of the three assets in positive territory so far, according to Szuster.
Data backs this up. Since the war started, bitcoin has risen by more than 2.2%, from around $65,800 to $67,300 at the time of writing. Gold, the traditional safe haven, has meanwhile dropped around 11%, while the S&P lost 4.4% of its value in the index’s steepest monthly drop since 2022.
Despite its volatility, bitcoin was the best-performing asset over the past decade, he added.
Read more: Bitcoin’s recent crash to $60,000 warned stocks first – now they’re following
The Bitcoin (BTC) network needs a “conservative” Bitcoin client node software implementation to preserve its monetary properties and strengthen network decentralization, according to Jimmy Song, co-founder of ProductionReady, a non-profit organization funding open source Bitcoin node software development and education.
The organization has a “bias” against significant code changes, unless there is “overwhelming” community support for the change, Song told Cointelegraph.
“The general principle is: if you’re not sure a change makes the money better, don’t make it,” he said.
The number of Bitcoin nodes, broken down by software implementation, between 2016 and 2026. Source: Coin Dance
ProductionReady expects to restore the 83-byte OP_Return data limit for arbitrary, non-monetary information in Bitcoin transactions, he said, adding that keeping node storage costs down by limiting arbitrary data is essential to network decentralization. He said:
“The more self-sovereign Bitcoin users are, the more decentralized and resilient the network becomes. That means keeping the cost of running a node low enough for ordinary people to do it.
“When storage and bandwidth requirements grow, fewer people verify for themselves, and the network centralizes by default. A conservative client takes that tradeoff seriously,” Song continued.
Maximizing nodes and making them accessible to the average user hardens the Bitcoin network, reducing the chances of cheating by submitting false transactions or a few actors colluding to centralize the network.
Bitcoin Core continues to be the software of choice for node runners, with 77.8% of the network running some version of the Core software and 21.8% running Bitcoin Knots. Source: Coin Dance
Related: 72% of subsea cables would need to fail to impact Bitcoin, study shows
Bitcoin Core 30 removes the OP_Return data limit, sparking major pushback
Node storage and onchain spam became hot-button topics in 2025 after Bitcoin Core developers unilaterally changed the 83-Byte data limit in Bitcoin Core version 30, the latest major upgrade to the reference implementation for Bitcoin node software.
The limit was changed to 100,000 bytes despite significant pushback from the Bitcoin community. For context, the proposal to change the limit received about 4 times as many downvotes as it did upvotes, according to the proposal’s GitHub pull request page.
Bitcoin Core 30 went live in October 2025, triggering a historic surge in the number of Bitcoin nodes running Bitcoin Knots, an alternative implementation of the node client software.
The number of nodes running Bitcoin Knots surged to record highs in 2025, following the release of Bitcoin Core 30. Source: Coin Dance
There are 4,746 Bitcoin Knots nodes, representing over 21.7% of nodes on the network, according to Coin Dance.
Only about 1% of the network was running the Knots software in 2024 before the decision to remove the OP_Return function was announced.
Magazine: Bitcoin may face hard fork over any attempt to freeze Satoshi’s coins
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin abandoned cloud AI in April 2026, running Qwen3.5:35B locally on an Nvidia 5090 laptop at 90 tokens per second.
Buterin found that roughly 15% of AI agent skills contain malicious instructions, citing data from security firm Hiddenlayer.
His open-sourced messaging daemon enforces a human-plus-LLM 2-of-2 confirmation rule for all outbound Signal and email actions to third parties.
How Vitalik Buterin Runs a Self-Sovereign AI System With No Cloud Access
Buterin described the system as “self-sovereign / local / private / secure” and said it was built in direct response to what he sees as serious security and privacy failures spreading through the AI agent space. He pointed to research showing roughly 15% of agent skills, or plug-in tools, contain malicious instructions. Security firm Hiddenlayer demonstrated that parsing a single malicious web page could fully compromise an Openclaw instance, allowing it to download and execute shell scripts without user awareness.
“I come from a mindset of being deeply scared that just as we were finally making a step forward in privacy with the mainstreaming of end-to-end encryption and more and more local-first software, we are on the verge of taking ten steps backward,” Buterin wrote.
His hardware of choice is a laptop running an Nvidia 5090 GPU with 24 GB of video memory. Running the open-weights Qwen3.5:35B model from Alibaba through llama-server, the setup reaches 90 tokens per second, which Buterin calls the target for comfortable daily use. He tested the AMD Ryzen AI Max Pro with 128 GB unified memory, which hit 51 tokens per second, and the DGX Spark, which reached 60 tokens per second.
He said the DGX Spark, marketed as a desktop AI supercomputer, was unimpressive given its cost and lower throughput compared to a good laptop GPU. For his operating system, Buterin switched from Arch Linux to NixOS, which lets users define their entire system configuration in a single declarative file. He uses llama-server as a background daemon that exposes a local port any application can connect to.
Claude Code, he noted, can be pointed at a local llama-server instance instead of Anthropic’s servers. Sandboxing is central to his security model. He uses bubblewrap to create isolated environments from any directory with a single command. Processes running inside those sandboxes can only access files explicitly allowed and controlled network ports. Buterin open-sourced a messaging daemon at github.com/vbuterin/messaging-daemon that wraps signal-cli and email.
He remarked that the daemon can read messages freely and send messages to himself without confirmation. Any outbound message to a third party requires explicit human approval. He called this the “human + LLM 2-of-2” model, and said the same logic applies to Ethereum wallets. He advised teams building AI-connected wallet tools to cap autonomous transactions at $100 per day and require human confirmation for anything higher or any transaction carrying calldata that could exfiltrate data.
Remote Inference, on Buterin’s Terms
For research tasks, Buterin compared the local tool Local Deep Research against his own setup using the pi agent framework paired with SearXNG, a self-hosted privacy-focused meta-search engine. He said pi plus SearXNG produced better quality answers. He stores a local Wikipedia dump of approximately 1 terabyte alongside technical documentation to reduce his reliance on external search queries, which he treats as a privacy leak.
He also published a local audio transcription daemon at github.com/vbuterin/stt-daemon. The tool runs without a GPU for basic use and feeds output to the LLM for correction and summarization. On Ethereum integration, Buterin said AI agents should never hold unrestricted wallet access. He recommended treating the human and the LLM as two distinct confirmation factors that each catch different failure modes.
For cases where local models fall short, Buterin outlined a privacy-preserving approach to remote inference. He pointed to his own ZK-API proposal with researcher Davide, the Openanonymity project, and the use of mixnets to prevent servers from linking successive requests by IP address. He also cited trusted execution environments as a way to reduce data leakage from remote inference in the near term, while noting that fully homomorphic encryption for private cloud inference remains too slow to be practical today.
Buterin closed with a note that the post describes a starting point, not a finished product, and warned readers against copying his exact tools and assuming they are secure.
In many ways, The Gambia represents one of the most compelling fintech frontiers in Africa. This is not because of scale but rather of potential.
At present, the country’s fintech ecosystem remains small, yet it is increasingly shaped by digital transformation efforts, mobile-first financial services, and a growing recognition of fintech’s role in economic development.
According to the World Bank, with a population of approximately 2.7 million and GDP estimated at around $2.8 billion, the Gambia’s economy is driven by agriculture, tourism, and , like many developing economies, remittances. These structural characteristics help understand the trajectory of its fintech sector.
Financial services, inclusion and digital economic development
In terms of the financial services sector, the country’s sector remains underdeveloped, with limited banking penetration and a strong reliance on cash. The sector is regulated by the Central Bank of The Gambia (CBG), which has taken steps to modernise payment systems and encourage digital financial services.
Financial inclusion remains a key challenge. According to the World Bank Global Findex, a significant portion of the population remains unbanked, particularly in rural areas. Barriers include low income levels, limited financial literacy, and geographic constraints. Women and informal sector workers are disproportionately affected.
The country’s digital economy ambitions are embedded within its National Development Plan (NDP) and subsequent digital strategies, which prioritise ICT infrastructure, financial inclusion, and public sector digitisation.
Despite its challenges, mobile penetration has exceeded 100 per cent, while internet usage continues to grow steadily, supported by investments in broadband and mobile networks. These developments are laying the foundation for digital financial services to expand.
Importantly, digital transformation in The Gambia is closely tied to financial inclusion goals. Government and development partners, including the World Bank and the African Development Bank, have supported initiatives to digitise payments, improve financial access, and modernise the nation’s financial system.
For instance, The CGB developed its first ever financial inclusion strategy in 2022, aiming to boost inclusion. The strategy was developed with UN Capital Development Fund, European Union (EU) and Alliance for Financial Inclusion (AFI).
Also this year, The CBG launched the Payment Systems Advisory Committee (NPSAC), a step aimed at strengthening the country’s digital payment infrastructure.
An emerging fintech ecosystem
SANKANDI, GAMBIA- JAN 6, 2014: Once a month the doctor comes to town. Young woman with babies dress up for the occasion and walk together to have the monthly health checkup IMAGE SOURCE GETTY
The Gambia’s fintech ecosystem is still in its early stages, with an estimated 10–20 fintech firms operating in the country as of 2026. These firms are primarily focused on payments, remittances, and basic financial services.
The ecosystem is supported by a mix of local entrepreneurs, telecom operators, and international development organisations. While small, it is gradually expanding as awareness and demand for digital financial services increase.
There is no standalone national fintech strategy at present. However, fintech development is embedded within broader financial inclusion and digital economy initiatives led by the CBG and government ministries.
Fintech solutions has potential as a result and, like much of Africa, mobile money is playing a role in it.
How popular is it? Last year, according to the CBG, there were 4.5 million registered accounts and, of these, 2.4 million were active; the country has a population of only 2.8 million people.
Mobile network operators play a central role in the ecosystem, offering mobile money services that enable users to send, receive, and store funds digitally. These platforms are increasingly being used for remittances, bill payments, and merchant transactions. Mobile money services, agent networks, and digital wallets are expanding access points, while digital credit solutions have the potential to support small businesses.
Mobile money in The Gambia is dominated by operator-led services like QMoney (QCell) and AfriMoney (Africell). Other fintechs in the country include the likes of Wave, Nafa and APS Wallet.
Banks are also beginning to digitise their services, introducing mobile banking apps and agent banking models to extend their reach beyond urban centres.
Much of the support of mobile money has been market driven but also there has been pushes from the telecoms and support with regulatory reforms that have made it popular in the country.
The future of fintech in The Gambia will depend largely on infrastructure and policy execution. Expanding internet access, improving financial literacy, and strengthening regulatory frameworks will be critical. At the same time, the country has an opportunity to leapfrog traditional financial systems by adopting mobile-first and digital solutions.
Whilst still nascent, The Gambia has a trajectory that is pushing for inclusion and digitalisation.
Richie is a global economic development advisor and Managing Partner of Santos-Diaz LLC, specializing in international trade and foreign direct investment across the UK, Middle East, and North America. With over 15 years of experience and a Masters from SOAS University of London, he has advised high-level governments and multinational corporates while contributing to major outlets like Forbes and the World Economic Forum. Currently based in Dubai, he leverages his background in emerging markets and RegTech to bridge the gap between global policy and private sector growth.
View all posts
Executive Economic Development Advisor (Emerging Markets) | Contributor
Prediction markets are pushing into Asia’s largest economies, even as local gambling laws place strict limits on betting activities.
Asia represents a combination of scale, active retail participation and limited local alternatives, making it too large to ignore despite regulatory risks.
That’s a similar pattern seen in crypto, where technology moved faster than regulation and licensing frameworks, prompting exchanges to enter markets before clear rules were in place.
Like many startups, the industry’s heavyweights adopted the “better to ask for forgiveness than permission” approach to scale.
Polymarket, one of the fastest-growing platforms, is already recording over $1 billion in weekly volume. It has introduced Chinese-language support, while newer entrants like PredicXion are focusing on local events to drive adoption.
But beneath the surface, the region is fragmented and legally complicated, where access, language and regulation don’t always align with the industry’s global ambitions.
Polymarket has recently returned to activity levels seen during the US presidential election. Source: DeFiLlama
Prediction markets hit local barriers in Asia
Three Asian countries — China, Japan and India — ranked among the world’s five largest economies by gross domestic product in 2024, according to the World Bank.
India and China do not have specific frameworks addressing blockchain-based prediction markets, but both maintain restrictive environments around crypto. India imposes heavy taxation, while China enforces an outright ban on activities such as trading and mining.
South Korea also ranks among the world’s largest economies at 12th and is often cited as one of the most active retail crypto markets. The South Korean won is a consistent top-two currency by global fiat trading volume, according to Kaiko.
The KRW was the most-traded fiat currency in crypto markets in the first quarter of 2024. Source: Kaiko
Related: How AI agents can reshape arbitrage in prediction markets
“Prediction markets could be a very big opportunity in the Korean market,” Heechang Kang, co-founder at research company Four Pillars, told Cointelegraph. “But I think many prediction markets are having difficulty capturing audiences because their predictions are mostly focused on Western themes.”
Japan faces similar localization challenges, where language and a lack of region-specific events limit broader adoption.
That gap has created an opening for Asia-based platforms. Prediction markets originating from the region, such as PredicXion, are attempting to localize content by focusing on region-specific events.
PredicXion’s markets focus on events familiar to the Asian retail scene. Source: PredicXion
However, its founder and CEO Andy Cheung said local gambling regulations in key markets remain a “significant concern.”
“In these jurisdictions, authorities often classify activities involving wagering on uncertain outcomes as gambling, which is heavily restricted or outright prohibited outside of tightly controlled state-run lotteries or exceptions,” Cheung told Cointelegraph.
The argument that prediction markets and gambling are different
In China, online gambling is strictly prohibited, and access to platforms such as Polymarket is largely restricted. Some users bypass controls using VPNs to get around the country’s internet censorship, commonly known as the Great Firewall, but that does not eliminate risk.
“Many in the industry are aware of the strict legal environment in these regions, and aggressive user acquisition there does carry risks, not just for operators, but potentially for users themselves under local laws that can treat participation as illegal gambling,” Cheung said.
Regulators in South Korea and Japan have yet to directly address blockchain-based prediction markets as well, and most platforms remain accessible. Both countries, however, maintain strict limits on gambling.
In South Korea, most forms of gambling are prohibited for locals outside a narrow set of state-run exceptions, and the law extends to participation on overseas platforms. Authorities have actively pursued illegal online betting operators and, in some cases, users themselves.
Japan takes a similarly restrictive approach, where gambling is generally illegal outside regulated channels such as lotteries, horse racing and other public betting systems.
Arcade-style games known as “pachinko” are a workaround to avoid direct cash payouts in Japan. Source: James Chan/Unsplash
Related: Why yen stablecoins are key to Japan’s crypto ambitions
That leaves prediction markets in a gray zone, where access is possible but legal classification remains unresolved.
“Some argue that prediction markets are no different from gambling. I would dispute that,” Jaewon Kim, a researcher at Four Pillars who authored the company’s prediction markets report, told Cointelegraph.
He said the distinction lies in the type of output they produce. Gambling is largely a closed loop where users bet against the house, with outcomes that have little relevance beyond the game itself. Meanwhile, prediction markets aggregate expectations about real-world events.
“During the 2024 US presidential election, prediction markets gained significant traction and, in some cases, were more accurate than polls or expert forecasts,” Kim claimed. “That ability to reflect collective expectations is what sets them apart and gives them informational value beyond simple wagering.”
Some argue that prediction market odds were more accurate than official polls in the 2024 US election. Source: Polymarket
Legal classification will determine prediction markets’ future in Asia
Several prediction platforms are moving into Asia with the same playbook that defined earlier phases of crypto growth, targeting demand first and leaving regulatory clarity for later. The region offers a rare mix of scale, retail participation and underdeveloped local alternatives.
That tension is already visible on the ground. Platforms can reach users through language support and workarounds like VPNs, but none of those solve the underlying issue of classification. Major Asian markets also have some of the most restrictive legal environments for anything that resembles gambling.
Prediction markets have been actively targeting users in China despite regional barriers. Source: Polymarket Traders
Local players are beginning to test that boundary by tailoring products to regional audiences, though Cheung said platforms like PredicXion are trying to avoid “heavily restricted markets.” Most regions have yet to determine whether prediction markets fall under gambling.
The industry’s argument that prediction markets are distinct adds another layer of uncertainty. If they are treated as information markets that aggregate real-world expectations, they may eventually find a regulatory pathway similar to financial instruments.
If not, they risk being absorbed into existing gambling frameworks that leave little room for expansion.
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Onchain investigator ZachXBT identified 15 cases totaling over $420M in illicit USDC flows Circle failed to freeze promptly since 2022.
The Drift Protocol exploit saw 232M USDC bridged via Circle’s own CCTP over 6 hours with no freeze during U.S. business hours.
Circle froze 16 legitimate business wallets in a March 2026 civil case, including DFINITY Foundation’s ckETH Minter contract, with 5 later unfrozen.
Did Circle Fail to Freeze Stolen USDC? ZachXBT Says Yes, With Receipts
The thread, titled “Welcome to the Circle USDC files,” was posted to X and laid out specific hacks, frauds, and North Korea-linked theft cases where Circle held the technical ability and contractual authority to freeze or blacklist USDC wallets but did not act promptly, or at all. ZachXBT cited onchain addresses, transaction timelines, and communications involving law enforcement, victims, and private-sector security firms.
Among the cases, ZachXBT flagged the April 1, 2026, Drift Protocol exploit, attributed to North Korea’s Lazarus Group by blockchain analytics firm Elliptic, as a standout example. Attackers bridged more than 232 million USDC from Solana to Ethereum using Circle’s own Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol in over 100 transactions across six hours during U.S. business hours. Circle made no freeze.
ZachXBT’s post highlights the Swapnet exploit from January 25, 2026, which saw $16 million stolen, with 3 million USDC sitting accessible for two days while law enforcement and private investigators submitted temporary freeze requests that Circle denied. The funds were swapped before a court order could be obtained.
In the Cetus Protocol hack from May 22, 2025, attackers took $223 million and bridged 61 million USDC via Circle’s infrastructure over 90 minutes. Circle blacklisted the funds one month later, after they had already been converted to Ether.
ZachXBT also pointed to the Mango Markets exploit from October 2022, where $57.5 million was routed through a Circle deposit address and never frozen onchain. The exploiter was later charged by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In the Nomad Bridge hack from August 2022, approximately $45 million USDC sat freezable for 30 to 45 minutes following a $190 million breach. He says Circle did not act.
The investigator noted Circle took 4.5 months longer than Tether, Paxos, and other stablecoin issuers to freeze Lazarus Group-linked addresses flagged in an April 2024 report. He also documented delayed responses involving Garantex, the sanctioned Russian exchange, where over 200,000 USDC went untouched while Tether froze $22 million in a parallel action.
Circle’s official position, delivered through spokesperson statements to the media, holds that the company freezes assets only when legally required, including in response to sanctions designations, law enforcement orders, or court mandates. The company says preemptive freezes without legal authorization expose Circle to liability and infringe on user rights. Its terms of service permit discretionary action, but the company’s practice prioritizes formal legal process.
ZachXBT acknowledged Circle builds quality products and said he personally holds USDC. His criticism centers on whether Circle’s compliance priorities match the losses the broader crypto ecosystem absorbs when freezes are delayed or withheld.
Legitimate Operations Frozen
A separate incident amplified the criticism. On or around March 23, 2026, Circle froze USDC balances in 16 unrelated business wallets tied to a sealed U.S. civil case in New York, identified as approximately case 26-cv-2327. The wallets belonged to crypto exchanges, online casinos, forex brokers, payment processors, and the ckETH Minter smart contract operated by the DFINITY Foundation, which bridges the Internet Computer Protocol to Ethereum.
ZachXBT called it potentially the single most incompetent freeze he had witnessed in more than five years of investigations. He said basic onchain analysis would have shown the wallets were active operational infrastructure with no apparent connections to each other or to the underlying civil matter.
At least five of the 16 wallets were later unfrozen, including DFINITY’s contract and Goated.com’s wallet holding roughly $131,000 USDC. More reversals were expected as of the time of reporting. Circle issued no detailed public rebuttal to the full thread as of April 4, 2026.
The cases collectively raise direct questions about how a U.S.-regulated stablecoin issuer headquartered in New York weighs legal caution against real-world losses from illicit activity its infrastructure helps move.
