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Microsoft says legacy banks are hitting a breaking point as AI takes over the heavy lifting

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Microsoft says legacy banks are hitting a breaking point as AI takes over the heavy lifting

Artificial intelligence is pushing financial systems toward a model where machines execute transactions at scale, raising new challenges around control, oversight and infrastructure, said Microsoft and Chainalysis executives.

Bill Borden, corporate vice president of worldwide financial services at Microsoft, said Tuesday that legacy systems will face increasing pressure as transaction demands grow more complex. The tipping point comes when “latency, scale, complexity are starting to impact your ability to compete,” forcing firms to rethink how their systems are built, he said at an event hosted by Alchemy in New York City.

While automation has long been part of finance, Borden said the focus is now shifting from capability to trust. “It’s not about, can technology automate … executing a hedging strategy — that can be done. The question is: can you trust it? Can you audit and control?” he said.

Microsoft, which offers its own AI assistant in many of its products, is developing tools to manage that transition, including systems that assign identities and permissions to AI agents and track their actions. In regulated environments, Borden said firms must be able to show “what controlled it” and whether a system “followed the policy” when decisions are made without direct human input.

Jonathan Levin, co-founder and CEO of Chainalysis, said the crypto sector already offers a working model of automated finance. Blockchain networks process large volumes of transactions through smart contracts and software-driven wallets, creating what he described as an environment similar to agent-based systems. “We’ve been preparing for these moments way before other parts of the financial services industry,” Levin said.

That experience extends to risk management. Levin pointed to efforts to track illicit funds across “thousands of different wallets” as an example of the kind of monitoring needed in a system where transactions happen at scale without direct human input.

Looking ahead, both executives expect a mix of systems to coexist. Levin said “the majority of commerce in 10 years time will be settled on public infrastructure,” while Borden pointed to a more integrated approach linking public blockchains, private networks and existing rails.

“I do think traditional rails will continue to exist,” Borden said, with software acting as the layer that connects them.

This New Bitcoin-Aligned Stablecoin Eyes $100T B2B Finance

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This New Bitcoin-Aligned Stablecoin Eyes $100T B2B Finance

What happened? Paystand is launching a Bitcoin-aligned stablecoin aimed at enterprise finance, betting that the next phase of digital-dollar adoption will move beyond crypto trading into accounts receivable, accounts payable, payroll and treasury operations.

The new token, called USDb, was announced at Bitcoin Las Vegas and is designed as a dollar-backed settlement asset for business payments rather than retail transfers or exchange liquidity. Paystand said the stablecoin will be backed 1:1 by U.S. dollar reserves and initially rolled out across its own business-payments network.

Why does it matter? The launch marks a new attempt to bring stablecoins into the operating systems of corporate finance.

Paystand says its network has processed more than $20 billion in payment volume and serves more than one million businesses across North America and Latin America.

The company also acquired Bitwage in November 2025, giving it cross-border payroll and workforce-payment reach across nearly 200 countries.

That matters because most stablecoin activity still sits closer to crypto markets than corporate workflows.

Stablecoin transaction volume reached $33 trillion in 2025, up 72% from the previous year, according to Artemis Analytics data reported by Bloomberg. USDC accounted for $18.3 trillion of that volume, while Tether’s USDT handled $13.3 trillion.

But transaction volume can overstate real-world payments adoption.

Much of the activity reflects trading, transfers between exchanges, DeFi transactions and market-making flows. The enterprise opportunity is different: using tokenized dollars to reduce settlement delays, cross-border friction and liquidity costs inside business operations.

USDb aims to fill that gap.

Paystand is positioning the token as a commercial settlement layer for CFOs, not another consumer-facing stablecoin. It is built for AR, AP, treasury movement and cross-border payroll, with the aim of integrating digital-dollar settlement into finance systems companies already use.

The article “This New Bitcoin-Aligned Stablecoin Eyes $100T B2B Finance” was first published on AlexaBlockchain. Read the complete article here: https://alexablockchain.com/this-new-bitcoin-aligned-stablecoin-eyes-100t-b2b-finance/

Read Also: MoneyGram, Pairpoint and eToro Back Midnight’s Privacy Blockchain Before Mainnet

Disclaimer: The information provided on AlexaBlockchain is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Read complete disclaimer here.

Image Credits: Shutterstock, Canva, Wiki Commons

Bitcoin Bulls Should Be Wary Of This Level Or Investors Risk Getting Trapped

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Bitcoin Bulls Should Be Wary Of This Level Or Investors Risk Getting Trapped

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

A crypto analyst has sounded the alarm over a critical breakout level that could trap many Bitcoin (BTC) bulls. The analyst has predicted that the BTC price could extend its ongoing recovery and potentially push toward the $80,000 level in the short term. However, he cautioned that this move could attract late buyers who mistake it for a sustained uptrend, only for momentum to fade sharply, leaving them trapped in losing positions.

Bitcoin Bulls Face Key Test At $79,300

Crypto analyst @Sherlockwhale warned in a post on X that Bitcoin may be approaching a key area where traders could misread the short-term upward move as bullish strength or a sustained breakout. According to the analyst, current market conditions could trap participants who expect a prolonged bull trend, as price action may end up forming a lower high instead of a sustained move upward.

The analyst explained that while many traders are currently expecting Bitcoin to confirm a higher high, he believes the structure is more similar to previous rejection zones around  $107,000 and $97,000. In those instances, the BTC price failed to sustain an upward move, forming lower highs that trapped late buyers as sellers stepped in aggressively to take profits.

Bitcoin
Source: Chart from @Sherlockwhale on X

@Sherlockwhale suggests that a similar situation could develop again if Bitcoin approaches the critical level around $79,300. In his view, this area could serve as a turning point where bulls may get caught and possibly become exit liquidity. He outlined two potential bearish outlooks based on Bitcoin’s weekly chart structure. 

In the first scenario, he predicts that if Bitcoin closes the week below $79,300, he would consider that a signal to take a short position. In that case, he targets a sharp reversal toward $60,000, with invalidation above the current weekly wick.

The second scenario assumes Bitcoin could move higher first before reversing to the downside. In that case, @Sherlockwhale expects the price to rally toward its next major resistance around $83,400, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on the chart. This area is also seen as a potential liquidity zone where buyers could get caught before a major downturn begins. Even in this case, the analyst’s projected bearish target remains $60,000, likely viewing this level as a potential bear market bottom. 

BTC To See More Upside Before Another Crash

Sharing similar bearish sentiment, market analyst Michael van de Poppe has predicted that Bitcoin could see another strong upside move, extending its ongoing rebound, before a steeper crash. According to the analyst, BTC is currently holding critical levels around $76,000 after rallying above $79,000 just a day before. 

Poppe notes that the cryptocurrency is still preparing for more upside and could be heading toward its next resistance levels between $85,000 and $88,000 by May. He predicts that once the price reaches this level, it could reverse sharply, potentially declining toward $56,000.  

Bitcoin
BTC trading at $76,636 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin Holds $76K Ahead of Powell’s Final Fed Meeting

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Bitcoin Holds $76K Ahead of Powell’s Final Fed Meeting

Crypto markets are trading cautiously, with the Fed widely expected to hold rates steady tomorrow.

Crypto markets are stuck in neutral as traders weigh a closed Strait of Hormuz, hawkish dissent at the Bank of Japan, and Jerome Powell’s final Fed meeting, all falling within the same 48-hour window.

Bitcoin is trading at $76,360, down 0.7% over 24 hours, after failing twice in the past week to reclaim $80,000, per CoinGecko data. Ether ticked up 0.3% to $2,299, though the second-largest cryptocurrency is still marginally lower over the past seven days.

BTC Chart

The total crypto market capitalization slipped 0.5% to $2.64 trillion.

The macro situation dominated heading into Tuesday’s session. WTI crude futures for June delivery traded 3% higher near $100 per barrel as traders weighed Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz only if the U.S. lifts its blockade. The chokepoint has been closed since February 28, triggering one of the most significant energy shocks in modern history.

The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% earlier today, though the decision was not unanimous, with three members calling for a hike. The yen rose while Bitcoin remained under pressure. The Federal Reserve’s two-day FOMC meeting kicks off today, with markets pricing in a near-certainty that rates will remain unchanged. Tomorrow’s decision marks Jerome Powell’s last meeting and press conference as Fed Chair before his term ends on May 15, with Kevin Warsh expected to take over.

ETF Flows

The structural ETF bid that anchored the recent consolidation broke on Monday. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $263 million in net outflows on April 27, ending a nine-day streak that pulled in roughly $2.11 billion through April 24, per SoSoValue data.

Cumulative net inflows since launch now sit at $58.30 billion, with total ETF net assets at $101.23 billion as of April 27, equivalent to roughly 6.5% of Bitcoin’s market cap.

Altcoin Movers

MemeCore (M) is today’s biggest loser, dropping 15% over the past 24 hours and 21% on the week to $3.38, per CoinGecko.

Privacy token Zcash (ZEC) fell 5.6% on the day to $334 but remains 8.4% higher over seven days, while Hyperliquid’s HYPE slid 3.8% to $40 but eked out a 2.7% weekly gain. Stellar’s XLM is up 8.8% on the week despite today’s pullback.

Among the top 10, XRP, TRON and Solana slipped by 0.3% to 0.8%, while Dogecoin bucked the broader weakness with a 1.8% gain.

Looking ahead, near-term price action hinges on whether the Fed’s tone on Wednesday is dovish enough to offset oil-driven inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions.

Ethereum Traders Say Watch These ETH Price Levels Next

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Ethereum Traders Say Watch These ETH Price Levels Next

Ether (ETH) analysts have mapped out key ETH price levels to watch over the next few weeks, with a focus on the $2,000 psychological level.

Key takeaways:

  • Dropping below the 200-day simple moving average at $2,220 could confirm more downside for Ether.
  • ETH faces stiff resistance at $2,400, a level that must be reclaimed by the bulls.

Ether price stuck between two key levels

Data from TradingView showed the ETH/USD pair trading below $2,300, down 5% over the last two days and erasing all gains made over the weekend. 

This meant that the price remained wedged between the 100-day exponential moving average at $2,350 and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2,220, as shown in the chart below.

This suggested that Ether could consolidate within these trend lines for a few more days before a decisive move.

Telegram trading resource Technical Crypto Analyst said that after losing the support trendline at $2,300, “we can probably expect Ethereum to drop, and it might even hit the lower support level in the next few days,” adding: 

“A solid breakdown with good volume would confirm this.”

ETH/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The analyst was referring to two immediate support zones: the $2,200 area, where the 50-day and 100-day SMAs converge, and the psychological level at $2,000.

“ETH has dropped below the $2,300 level,” said fellow analyst Ted Pillows in a Tuesday post on X, adding:

“The next crucial support zone is $2,200 which could be a level for a short-term bounceback.”

A key buy zone to watch below that is the $1,800-$1,750 area, which aligns with the multi-year low reached on Feb. 6.

In a recent post on X, trader Daan Crypto Trades said that the key levels to watch were $2,100 as support and the resistance at $2,800, which ETH price has “respected” well over the past few years.

ETH/USD daily chart. Source: X/Daan Crypto Trades

As Cointelegraph reported, a daily close below the moving averages around $2,200 would bring the next line of defense at $2,000 into focus.

Ethereum price must reclaim $2,400 to continue recovery

As Cointelegraph also reported, Ether’s bullish case hinges on flipping the resistance at $2,400 into support, where the realized price currently is.

“This is a very important psychological factor,” CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 said in a recent X post, adding:

“Breaking through that line signifies that whales are transitioning to a profitable position.”

ETH realized price. Source: CryptoQuant

With whales back in a profitable position, it would “provide grounds for their buying power to become stronger,” the analyst added.

Related: Ethereum’s EEZ could pull other blockchains into its orbit

Meanwhile, Ether’s liquidation map reveals that a break above $2,400 would trigger over $1.94 billion in short liquidations across all exchanges.

ETH exchange liquidation map. Source: CoinGlass

This means a significant amount of bearish bets risk liquidation on a move higher, opening the way to a sharper upward cascade if the recovery resumes.

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

Meta Scales AI Infrastructure With AWS Chip Deal

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Meta Scales AI Infrastructure With AWS Chip Deal

Meta entered into a new agreement to deploy millions of general-purpose chips from Amazon, as part of the social media giant’s AI expansion efforts.

Under the deal, Meta will gain access to AWS’s Graviton line of processors, which are specifically designed for agentic AI. 

While tools such as large language models rely on GPUs for training, the rise of agentic AI is increasing demand for high-performance CPUs that support inference and compute-intensive tasks such as orchestration and memory management.

Amazon said its latest Graviton chips feature a cache five times larger than the previous generation, enabling faster data processing and greater bandwidth — both key to agentic workflows.

The agreement joins growing industry momentum to secure the infrastructure needed to support both current and next-generation AI systems.

“This isn’t just about chips; it’s about giving customers the infrastructure foundation … to build AI that understands, anticipates and scales efficiently to billions of people worldwide,” Nafea Bshara, vice president at Amazon, said in an April 24 blog post.

Related:Nvidia Nemotron 3 Nano Omni Powers Enterprise AI Agents

“As we scale the infrastructure behind Meta’s AI ambitions, diversifying our compute sources is a strategic imperative,” Santosh Janardhan, head of infrastructure at Meta, said in the statement. “Expanding to Graviton allows us to run CPU-intensive workloads behind agentic AI with the performance and efficiency we need at our scale.”

The deal is one of many signed over the past few months as AI vendors race to secure next-generation AI infrastructure. 

Earlier this month, OpenAI and Anthropic both expanded partnerships with Amazon to ramp up deployment of the tech giant’s in-house Trainium chips.

In February, Meta made a chip deal with AMD worth $100bn, as well as an expanded deal with Nvidia to use more of its chips.

In April, the Facebook parent company also expanded its partnership with Broadcom to support the design and development of chips for AI-specific applications.

Bitcoin Drops Under $76K As Investors Weigh Regulatory, AI Risk

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Bitcoin Drops Under $76K As Investors Weigh Regulatory, AI Risk

Key takeaways:

  • Stalled progress on the CLARITY Act and hiccups in AI industry revenue weighed heavily on Bitcoin traders’ sentiment.
  • Global instability and US economic concerns may add further downside pressure on Bitcoin price.

Bitcoin (BTC) retreated below $76,000 on Tuesday, erasing gains from the prior week. This movement followed a 1% decline in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index after OpenAI reported a shortfall in its revenue and user growth targets. While the AI industry may be a factor in Bitcoin’s decline, crypto market regulations and macroeconomic indicators are also contributing.

Nasdaq 100 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

The Nasdaq 100 Index traded down 1% on Tuesday as AI infrastructure companies displayed weakness following a Wall Street Journal report that ChatGPT developer OpenAI announced lackluster sales and user metrics for 2025. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA US), Oracle (ORCL US), and CoreWeave (CRWV US) fell more than 2%.

The downturn in technology stocks can also be attributed to routine profit-taking, as the Nasdaq 100 Index reached an all-time high on Monday. Traders adopted a more cautious approach ahead of quarterly earnings reports from Microsoft (MSFT US), Google (GOOGL US), Amazon (AMZN US), and Meta (META US) on Wednesday, with Apple (AAPL US) following on Thursday.

Tech valuations, oil prices and shaky real estate markets

Brent crude oil spiked to $110 as US-Iran negotiations stalled over nuclear enrichment, threatening traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, China’s major cities experienced significant declines in real estate, with existing home prices dropping 7.4%. In the US, although the S&P Case-Shiller Index rose 0.3%, over half the country saw price decreases. 

In addition to the current macroeconomic factors, Bitcoin traders are skeptical about stalled progress on the CLARITY Act. Despite the pro-crypto stance from the Trump administration, the expected advancements have not fully materialized. If the market perception of crypto regulation improves, it could serve as the necessary catalyst to drive institutional demand back into Bitcoin.

Related: Acting AG Todd Blanche confirms ‘code is not a crime’ in DOJ pivot

Odds of crypto market structure legislation approval by 2027. Source: Kalshi

Traders are currently pricing in lower odds of the CLARITY Act’s approval. This crypto market structure bill cleared the House of Representatives in July 2025 but has since stalled in the Senate Banking Committee. 

While it is impossible to pinpoint the exact drivers behind the Bitcoin price correction to $76,000, the lack of momentum in US-Iran negotiations, weakness in real estate markets, and negative regulatory pressure have likely undermined investor confidence. These factors, alongside the downturn in technology stocks on Tuesday, have created a challenging environment for Bitcoin.

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

Jack Dorsey’s Block Launches Bitcoin Proof-of-Reserves

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Jack Dorsey’s Block Launches Bitcoin Proof-of-Reserves

Online payments firm Block has launched proof-of-reserves for its corporate Bitcoin treasury and two of its flagship products, Cash App and Square, joining a growing list of crypto companies proving their holdings onchain. 

“People shouldn’t have to trust that their bitcoin is there, they should be able to verify it,” the Jack Dorsey-led company said in a post to X after announcing the proof-of-reserves feature and other new offerings in Las Vegas on Monday.

Block said anyone can “independently confirm Block’s holdings” through on-chain signatures. “Reserves are actively controlled, not just historically observed,” it added.

Source: Block

The proof-of-reserves seeks to verify the 8,883 Bitcoin, worth $681.4 million, marked on Block’s balance sheet — the 14th-largest Bitcoin holding among corporate treasuries.

Proof-of-reserves became more widely adopted after the collapse of FTX in November 2022 as a transparency measure to assure customers that holdings were fully backed, secure and not at risk of misuse.

Binance, Kraken, OKX, Bitfinex and Bitget are among the largest crypto trading platforms that have adopted proof-of-reserves disclosures.

Strategy’s Saylor once said proof-of-reserves is a ‘bad idea’

Strategy, the biggest corporate holder of Bitcoin in the world, has not issued any proof-of-reserves. 

In May 2025, Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor flagged proof-of-reserves as a security risk when asked why his company doesn’t adopt the measure, arguing that it exposes sensitive information.

“It actually dilutes the security of the issuer, the custodians, the exchanges and the investors,” Saylor said at the time. “It’s not a good idea. It’s a bad idea.” 

Display of Bitcoin proof-of-reserves for Block’s Bitcoin treasury, Cash App and Square. Source: Block

Block also launched a Bitkey hardware wallet with a touchscreen to verify transactions while rolling out a feature on Cash App allowing certain users to have payments automatically converted into Bitcoin.

Related: ‘Historical average’ could push Bitcoin bottom at $57K level: Analyst

Block is also offering 5% Bitcoin cash back rewards at Square merchants and has raised customer withdrawal limits fivefold to $10,000 per day and $25,000 per week.

Dorsey is one of the biggest advocates seeking to push Bitcoin payments into the mainstream.

He previously said Bitcoin payments must see wide adoption to uphold Satoshi Nakamoto’s original vision of Bitcoin as an electronic peer-to-peer cash system.

Magazine: Adam Back says current demand is ‘almost’ enough to send Bitcoin to $1M

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

Stake and ACE & Company Partner to Launch Secondary Market for UAE Fractional Real Estate

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Stake and ACE & Company Partner to Launch Secondary Market for UAE Fractional Real Estate

Stake, the MENA region’s leading digital real estate investment platform, has entered into a strategic partnership with ACE & Company, a Swiss-headquartered global investment group managing over $2.0billion in assets. Together, the firms are developing liquidity solutions and a secondary transfer facility for investors utilizing Stake’s products.

Initially, the agreement will focus exclusively on Stake’s real estate portfolio within the UAE. These assets are currently held through Prescribed Companies, which operate as Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) within the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC).

Building a more liquid marketplace

By combining Stake’s innovative access model with ACE & Company’s two decades of experience in private market investing and secondary transactions, the partnership seeks to create a more liquid, transparent, and efficient marketplace.

Through the planned secondary infrastructure framework, investors are expected to benefit from:

  • Greater flexibility in managing their fractional real estate holdings.

  • Improved visibility and transparency around market pricing.

  • Clearer and more reliable pathways to liquidity.

The broader market also stands to benefit from this institutionalized framework, gaining enhanced stability, stronger price discovery, and a scalable source of long-term capital.

The new secondary framework operates entirely within Stake’s existing regulatory permissions, which are approved by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). The DIFC’s established private markets framework, specifically its Prescribed Company regulations, provided the necessary legal infrastructure to enable this innovative model.

Confidence in UAE fundamentals
Manar Mahmassani, co-founder and Co-CEO of Stake

The joint venture reflects both firms’ deep confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the UAE. Even amid heightened regional uncertainty, the UAE continues to attract sustained global investor interest through its economic resilience, political stability, and high-quality infrastructure.

Manar Mahmassani, co-founder and Co-CEO of Stake, emphasized the strategic importance of building mature market infrastructure during this period.

“The UAE has always rewarded those who invest in it with conviction, and that’s exactly what this partnership represents,” Mahmassani said. He noted that while Stake launched during the COVID-19 crisis when Dubai’s property industry was at a low point, the underlying market fundamentals remained sound.

Sherif El Halwagy, partner and co-Founder at ACE & Company

“Today, the world is watching the region, and we want to be unambiguous about where we stand: we are long Dubai, and we are long the UAE,” he added. “This is not the moment to retreat: it’s the moment to build the institutional infrastructure this market deserves.”

Sherif El Halwagy, partner and co-Founder at ACE & Company, echoed this sentiment.

“Drawing on almost two decades of experience in offering liquidity to investors across private markets ecosystems via secondaries, we see a tremendous opportunity in real estate secondaries in the UAE,” El Halwagy stated. “This partnership reflects our conviction in the country’s long-term fundamentals and our disciplined approach to capital deployment in high-quality assets.”

As fractional ownership continues to gain mainstream traction globally, both Stake and ACE & Company believe that robust secondary infrastructure will play a critical role in supporting the sector’s sustainable expansion in the UAE and beyond.

Can Bitcoin price hit $250K this year? Top BTC chart watchers weigh in

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Can Bitcoin price hit $250K this year? Top BTC chart watchers weigh in

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading roughly 40% below its October 2025 record high near $126,000 despite its ongoing recovery.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Still, some of the cryptocurrency’s loudest bulls, including billionaire investor Tim Draper and Fundstrat’s co-founder Tom Lee, have not backed down from their $250,000 year-end prediction, a target that would require more than a threefold rally from current levels.

Is that realistic, or is Bitcoin’s latest drawdown a warning that the cycle has already peaked?

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin’s selloff may resume due to a bearish continuation setup.
  • Halving and midterm election fractals appear bearish for the BTC price in 2026.

Veteran trader warns of more BTC price decline

Peter Brandt, a veteran futures market trader, highlighted a channel pattern on the Bitcoin daily chart, which could keep BTC’s odds of rising toward $250,000 this year low.

As of Tuesday, BTC was showing signs of a pullback after testing the upper boundary near $79,500 as resistance. The cryptocurrency risks declining toward the flag’s lower boundary around the $69,000 level by May if the correction persists.

Those of you predicting $250,000 in 2026 need to stop with the mushrooms
This is called a channel

While it does not preclude further price gains, it is NOT a bullish bottoming pattern

Source: X
Source: X

Looking broadly, the channel appears like a bear flag pattern. A break below its lower trend line may push the BTC price under $50,000 if the technical setup plays out as intended.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin halving fractals show the bear market is midway

BTC’s price cycles have historically followed a clear pattern tied to its halvings every four years.

Cycle peaks have consistently occurred 12 to 18 months after the event. In 2012, the peak arrived in 12 months. The 2016 halving saw its top in 17 months, while the 2020 halving peaked after 18 months.

The April 2024 halving fits this timeline. Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, roughly 17–18 months later.

Bitcoin price performance since halving
Bitcoin price performance since halving

Now, in late April 2026 (over 24 months post-halving), BTC trades around $77,000, down 38%–40% from that peak. This alignment suggests the 2025 high may represent the cycle top, casting doubt on new highs for the remainder of 2026.

Bitcoin sell-off may resume in May

A chart by analyst Merlijn The Trader is adding to the cautious narrative, pointing to a recurring “Sell in May” pattern in US mid-term election years.

For instance, BTC dropped 61% in 2014, 65% in 2018, and 66% in 2022, each beginning around May of the election years.

BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: TradingView/Merlijn The Trader
BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: TradingView/Merlijn The Trader

Applying a similar framework to 2026, Merlijn projected a potential decline of over 60%, which would place BTC near the $30,000 level.

In a February report, Capital Group analysts Matt Miller and Chris Buchbinder said midterm elections often raise uncertainty over congressional control and policy direction. As campaign rhetoric heats up in the spring, investors tend to cut risk, slow buying, and brace for volatility.

That backdrop weakens the case for Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by year-end, even though several analysts, including those from Bernstein, see room for a more modest rebound toward the $100,000–$150,000 range.

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
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