Stocks, gold and crypto slide while crude oil tops $100 and traders rapidly reprice Fed expectations for rate hikes.
Bitcoin Will ‘Likely’ Break Support Next as $82,000 Stays Unflipped
Bitcoin (BTC) risks starting its “next downtrend” as bulls fail to break beyond $82,000, the latest analysis warns.
Key points:
- Bitcoin traders are beginning to sway toward a support retest or even a new “downtrend” for BTC/USD.
- Current price behavior has retained overhead resistance, with bulls unable to push through $82,000.
- Rangebound crypto markets spark $330 million in liquidations over 24 hours.
Trader: BTC price will “likely break below” support
Bitcoin traders are increasingly split on where BTC/USD will go next, but calls for lower levels are growing.
“For now, price remains in range, within value, rotating just above the very key ‘range high,’” trading account JDK Analysis wrote in its latest updates on X.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: JDK Analysis/X
As Cointelegraph reported, that rangebound construction, in place through most of May, is bordered by a CME futures gap and a key 200-day trend line to the upside.
With both staying in place for now, market participants are starting to assume that the bottom of the range will be retested instead.
“Now it’s important to watch how price reacts at the support zone we already bounced from once before. In my opinion, we will likely break below it this time,” CGT Trader said.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: CGT Trader/X
Trader BitBull went further, seeing the risk of a protracted period of downside BTC price pressure about to enter.
“$BTC failed to reclaim the $82,000 level again,” they told X followers on Friday.
“It seems like the next downtrend could start soon.”
BTC/USDC one-day chart. Source: BitBull/X
Hopes for Bitcoin’s “massive catch-up” to stocks persist
Trading circles are not without their more optimistic takes.
Related: Bitcoin price history suggests 77% odds of new all-time high within a year
Cryptic Trades predicts that BTC/USD will follow in the footsteps of US stock markets, which continue to post new all-time highs.
“$BTC is going to play a massive catch-up in the upcoming weeks,” it summarized.
Examining the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, meanwhile, trader Cai Soren said that bulls “stepped in instantly” to defend support.
Earlier, Cointelegraph noted bullish signals from the bands, which even caused their creator, John Bollinger, to act.
“As long as support keeps holding, momentum still looks strong for continuation higher,” Soren forecast.
BTC/USDT four-hour chart with Bollings Bands data. Source: Cai Soren/X
Data from CoinGlass shows the impact of rangebound moves across crypto markets, with 24-hour liquidations roughly equal across both long and short positions.
These totaled around $330 million at the time of writing.
Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
CoinDesk 20 performance update: BNB is only gainer as index drops 2%
BNB (BNB) rose 0.4% while Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.3% from Thursday.
What Will Trigger a BTC Price Rally?
Bitcoin’s (BTC) Thursday rally to $82,000, buoyed by the Senate Banking Committee’s advancement of the CLARITY Act, has stalled amid stiff overhead resistance and weakening ETF demand. Still, analysts said that BTC’s upward momentum may increase if key conditions are met.
Key takeaways:
- BTC bulls must flip the $82,000-$84,000 into new support.
- Return of strong institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs is required for the uptrend to continue.
Bitcoin price must establish $82,000 as new support
Data from TradingView showed BTC tested overhead resistance at $82,000, which has rejected the price since last week.
Note that this is where the 200-day simple moving average (EMA) and the 200-day exponential moving average (SMA) converge, reinforcing the importance of this level.
Related: Bitcoin trades at a ‘discount’ on Coinbase: Is a $76K retest next?
“If Bitcoin is going to go higher, it should really break above the 200 EMA now at $82,000 and hold it,” analyst Sykodelic said in a Thursday post on X, adding:
“Reject again here and I think we will get a deeper retrace, $74k – $77k levels.”
Analysts at Galaxy Trading said that the price has been trading below these moving averages since October 2025, and breaking them will be “another bullish confirmation” for Bitcoin.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The last time BTC price broke convincingly above the moving averages with strong volume was in April 2025, triggering a 48.5% rally to its current all-time high of $126,000.
Bitcoin’s cost-basis distribution heatmap reveals another major level of resistance, sitting further up, between $84,000 and $85,400, where investors acquired roughly 1.05 million BTC.
Analyst Sherlock said this is “one of the biggest supply clusters” that the BTC market must absorb to continue higher.
Bitcoin cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s liquidation heatmap shows heavy ask orders at $82,000-$83,000, highlighting the bears’ main line of defense.
Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. Source: X/AlphaBTC
As Cointelegraph reported, a break and close above $82,000-$84,00 opens the gates for a rally to the $92,000 resistance zone. A close above this resistance zone could signal the beginning of the next leg up.
Bitcoin ETF outflows diminish
One factor that could trigger a BTC price breakout is a resurgence in institutional demand, which has faltered amid inconsistent inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Data from Farside Investors shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a five-day inflow streak totaling nearly $1.7 billion with $269 million in outflows on May 7 as Bitcoin dipped below $80,000.
These outflows continued this week, with the $635 million on Wednesday, marking the largest withdrawal since late January.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows table. Source: Farside Investors
Strong and consistent inflows must return for Bitcoin to continue its recovery, Glassnode said in this week’s newsletter, adding:
“If sustained, continued institutional accumulation could provide the demand base required for Bitcoin to challenge higher overhead supply zones in the weeks ahead.”
Data from Capriole Investments, meanwhile, shows that while the number of Bitcoin treasury companies buying BTC daily has increased slightly over the last few weeks, it remains significantly lower than its peak seen in mid-2025.
Bitcoin treasury companies buyers. Source: Capriole Investments
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury holder, is one of the few companies consistently buying, adding 535 BTC for $43 million last week.
The purchase brought Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings to 818,869 BTC, purchased for about $61.86 billion at an average price of $75,540 per coin.
Strategy (MSTR) Files To Repurchase $1.5B In 2029 Convertible Notes As STRC Hits Record $1.53B Daily Volume
Strategy, the Tysons Corner-based software and Bitcoin treasury firm formerly known as MicroStrategy, filed a Form 8-K on Friday announcing plans to repurchase $1.5 billion of its convertible notes due 2029 — a significant balance sheet move that comes as the company’s preferred stock instrument, STRC, continues to attract record investor demand.
The repurchase announcement arrives one day after STRC, Strategy’s Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, recorded an all-time high daily trading volume of $1.53 billion on Thursday, surpassing the prior record of $1.1 billion set on April 13.
Executive Chairman Michael Saylor confirmed the milestone on X, calling it “all-time high volume” and describing the print as a signal of growing institutional confidence in the instrument.
STRC pays investors an 11.5% annualized dividend without diluting Strategy’s common equity and has grown to approximately $8.5 billion in market capitalization since launching less than nine months ago, making it the world’s largest preferred stock by market cap.
Thursday’s trading activity could theoretically allow Strategy to raise roughly $735.4 million through its at-the-market issuance structure — sufficient to purchase approximately 9,066 Bitcoin at current prices.
The convertible note repurchase adds another dimension to Strategy’s ongoing effort to restructure its capital stack. The company has publicly stated its intent to convert roughly $6 billion in convertible debt to equity over the next three to six years, with Saylor signaling the firm can withstand Bitcoin prices as low as $8,000 before its assets and debt would be at parity.
The 2029 notes being targeted in Friday’s filing represent one of the nearer maturities the company will need to manage as it executes that transition.
Strategy’s bitcoin investment vehicles
Meanwhile, STRC and MSTR shareholders are also being asked to vote on a separate but related proposal: amending the STRC dividend structure from monthly to semi-monthly payments.
Voting on the amendment opened on April 28 and closes June 8, with the first semi-monthly payment expected on July 15 if approved. Saylor has framed the change as a way to “stabilize price, dampen cyclicality, drive liquidity, and grow demand” — and ultimately to position STRC as what he has called the “biggest credit instrument in the world.”
Strategy currently holds 818,869 Bitcoin acquired at a total cost of approximately $61.81 billion, or an average price of $75,537 per coin. The firm has accumulated over 101,000 Bitcoin since March alone, with more than 56,770 of those purchases occurring after April, as it continues to deploy capital from its preferred equity and at-the-market programs at an accelerating pace.
JPMorgan analysts have projected Strategy’s total Bitcoin purchases for 2026 could reach $30 billion.
THORChain Halts Trading After ZachXBT Flags $10M Exploit
Decentralized liquidity protocol THORChain halted trading after blockchain investigator ZachXBT flagged a suspected exploit of more than $10 million.
A THORChain alerts Telegram channel showed all trading and signing halted, with a global node pause extended until block 26191149, or roughly 12 hours and 42 minutes. The halt came shortly after ZachXBT said the protocol had likely been exploited across Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB Chain and Base.
A wallet labeled by Arkham as the THORChain exploiter showed $10.8 million in holdings, transferred across several smaller transactions in the 30 minutes before 10:11 am UTC.
The suspected exploit adds to the mounting security concerns around decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, after hackers stole over $634 million during April, marking the highest monthly sum since the $1.46 billion in February 2025, when hackers staged the record $1.4 billion hack on Bybit exchange, DefiLlama data shows.
Cointelegraph reached out to THORChain for comment. The protocol had not publicly confirmed the exploit at the time of publication, though ZachXBT and PeckShield flagged suspicious activity, and THORChain alerts showed trading and signing had been halted.
Thorchain exploiter-tagged wallet. Source: Arkham
RUNE price falls 13% after suspected exploit
THORChain’s RUNE token fell by around 13% following the suspected exploit and traded near $0.51 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko data.
RUNE/USD, one-day chart. Source: CoinGecko
The latest correction adds additional pressure to the token’s price action, which is down 72% during the past year.
Related: Kelp DAO exploit prompts DeFi protocols to rethink oracle providers
As a non-custodial cross-chain protocol, THORChain has repeatedly been used by malicious actors to swap stolen funds, though it is not a cryptocurrency mixer like Tornado Cash.
Earlier in April, the attacker behind the $293 million Kelp DAO exploit swapped 75,700 Ether (ETH) through THORChain, generating about $910,000 in revenue for the protocol.
The majority of the $1.4 billion stolen during the Bybit hack, or about $1.2 billion, was also moved through THORChain by hackers, who swapped it from Ether to Bitcoin, according to Bybit co-founder and CEO Ben Zhou.
Strategy to repurchase $1.5 billion of 2029 convertible bonds using cash or bitcoin sales
Led by Michael Saylor, the company aims to retire half of its outstanding 0% 2029 converts as it restructures liabilities tied to its bitcoin treasury strategy.
Winklevoss’ Gemini jumps 25% on $100 million bitcoin infusion despite deepening losses
Gemini’s revenue improved 42% year-over-year to $50.3 million, helping narrow its net loss by 27% from $149.3 million a year earlier.
OKX, Korea Investment and Securities said to be in talks for 40% of Coinone
OKX’s planned move into the South Korean market would echo that of Binance, which completed its acquisition of Seoul-based Gopax last year.
Taurus Secures MiFID II License to Provide Regulated Tokenization Infrastructure for 40+ Global Banks
Taurus SA, the digital asset infrastructure platform serving major financial institutions including Deutsche Bank, Santander, and State Street, has secured a MiFID II investment firm license for its Cyprus-based subsidiary, Taurus (Europe) Ltd.
The authorization from the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) marks a pivotal moment for European capital markets, as Taurus becomes the first pure institutional infrastructure provider—rather than a consumer-facing exchange—to secure MiFID approval across the European Union.
The license allows Taurus to offer regulated investment services for tokenized financial instruments, including bonds, equities, fund shares, and structured products. Crucially, these services can now be passported across all 27 EU member states, providing a unified regulatory framework for banks and asset managers as they move from pilot programs into production.
Regulatory clarity ahead of the MiCA “cliff”
The timing of the authorization is critical. The Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) transitional period is set to end on July 1, 2026, after which unlicensed digital asset providers must cease operations in the EU. Regulators have already begun cracking down; in France, the AMF recently flagged 90 crypto firms operating without necessary licenses.
Unlike most digital asset firms chasing basic Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) authorizations under MiCA, Taurus opted for a MiFID-based framework. This choice reflects the platform’s focus on tokenized securities, which are governed by existing financial services law once structured as financial instruments. By securing MiFID status, Taurus can now support the entire lifecycle of tokenized assets—from issuance and custody to secondary market activity—under a single, high-tier regulatory perimeter.
A push for European digital sovereignty
The move arrives as European banks and policymakers increasingly advocate for independence from U.S. financial infrastructure. KBC, a Taurus client, recently joined a 12-bank European consortium (Qivalis) to launch a MiCAR-compliant euro stablecoin, aimed at breaking away from U.S. payments dominance. Taurus now positions itself as the regulated “supply-side” infrastructure supporting this broader push for European digital asset sovereignty.
With BDO identifying 2026 as the year tokenization moves from “pilot to production,” the multi-trillion-dollar market is beginning to take shape. The new license complements Taurus’s existing FINMA securities firm license obtained in 2021, giving the platform a fully regulated presence across both Switzerland and the European Union.
Sébastien Dessimoz, co-founder and managing partner at Taurus, noted that the license is a cornerstone of the firm’s European strategy. “It allows us to support EU-based entities within a clear regulatory framework as they scale their digital and tokenized asset activities,” Dessimoz stated. As the ECB’s tokenized settlement system prepares to go live later this month, Taurus stands as a key partner for institutions looking to navigate the new era of digital capital markets.