BNB (BNB) rose 0.4% while Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.3% from Thursday.
What Will Trigger a BTC Price Rally?
Bitcoin’s (BTC) Thursday rally to $82,000, buoyed by the Senate Banking Committee’s advancement of the CLARITY Act, has stalled amid stiff overhead resistance and weakening ETF demand. Still, analysts said that BTC’s upward momentum may increase if key conditions are met.
Key takeaways:
- BTC bulls must flip the $82,000-$84,000 into new support.
- Return of strong institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs is required for the uptrend to continue.
Bitcoin price must establish $82,000 as new support
Data from TradingView showed BTC tested overhead resistance at $82,000, which has rejected the price since last week.
Note that this is where the 200-day simple moving average (EMA) and the 200-day exponential moving average (SMA) converge, reinforcing the importance of this level.
Related: Bitcoin trades at a ‘discount’ on Coinbase: Is a $76K retest next?
“If Bitcoin is going to go higher, it should really break above the 200 EMA now at $82,000 and hold it,” analyst Sykodelic said in a Thursday post on X, adding:
“Reject again here and I think we will get a deeper retrace, $74k – $77k levels.”
Analysts at Galaxy Trading said that the price has been trading below these moving averages since October 2025, and breaking them will be “another bullish confirmation” for Bitcoin.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The last time BTC price broke convincingly above the moving averages with strong volume was in April 2025, triggering a 48.5% rally to its current all-time high of $126,000.
Bitcoin’s cost-basis distribution heatmap reveals another major level of resistance, sitting further up, between $84,000 and $85,400, where investors acquired roughly 1.05 million BTC.
Analyst Sherlock said this is “one of the biggest supply clusters” that the BTC market must absorb to continue higher.
Bitcoin cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s liquidation heatmap shows heavy ask orders at $82,000-$83,000, highlighting the bears’ main line of defense.
Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. Source: X/AlphaBTC
As Cointelegraph reported, a break and close above $82,000-$84,00 opens the gates for a rally to the $92,000 resistance zone. A close above this resistance zone could signal the beginning of the next leg up.
Bitcoin ETF outflows diminish
One factor that could trigger a BTC price breakout is a resurgence in institutional demand, which has faltered amid inconsistent inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Data from Farside Investors shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a five-day inflow streak totaling nearly $1.7 billion with $269 million in outflows on May 7 as Bitcoin dipped below $80,000.
These outflows continued this week, with the $635 million on Wednesday, marking the largest withdrawal since late January.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows table. Source: Farside Investors
Strong and consistent inflows must return for Bitcoin to continue its recovery, Glassnode said in this week’s newsletter, adding:
“If sustained, continued institutional accumulation could provide the demand base required for Bitcoin to challenge higher overhead supply zones in the weeks ahead.”
Data from Capriole Investments, meanwhile, shows that while the number of Bitcoin treasury companies buying BTC daily has increased slightly over the last few weeks, it remains significantly lower than its peak seen in mid-2025.
Bitcoin treasury companies buyers. Source: Capriole Investments
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury holder, is one of the few companies consistently buying, adding 535 BTC for $43 million last week.
The purchase brought Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings to 818,869 BTC, purchased for about $61.86 billion at an average price of $75,540 per coin.
Strategy (MSTR) Files To Repurchase $1.5B In 2029 Convertible Notes As STRC Hits Record $1.53B Daily Volume
Strategy, the Tysons Corner-based software and Bitcoin treasury firm formerly known as MicroStrategy, filed a Form 8-K on Friday announcing plans to repurchase $1.5 billion of its convertible notes due 2029 — a significant balance sheet move that comes as the company’s preferred stock instrument, STRC, continues to attract record investor demand.
The repurchase announcement arrives one day after STRC, Strategy’s Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, recorded an all-time high daily trading volume of $1.53 billion on Thursday, surpassing the prior record of $1.1 billion set on April 13.
Executive Chairman Michael Saylor confirmed the milestone on X, calling it “all-time high volume” and describing the print as a signal of growing institutional confidence in the instrument.
STRC pays investors an 11.5% annualized dividend without diluting Strategy’s common equity and has grown to approximately $8.5 billion in market capitalization since launching less than nine months ago, making it the world’s largest preferred stock by market cap.
Thursday’s trading activity could theoretically allow Strategy to raise roughly $735.4 million through its at-the-market issuance structure — sufficient to purchase approximately 9,066 Bitcoin at current prices.
The convertible note repurchase adds another dimension to Strategy’s ongoing effort to restructure its capital stack. The company has publicly stated its intent to convert roughly $6 billion in convertible debt to equity over the next three to six years, with Saylor signaling the firm can withstand Bitcoin prices as low as $8,000 before its assets and debt would be at parity.
The 2029 notes being targeted in Friday’s filing represent one of the nearer maturities the company will need to manage as it executes that transition.
Strategy’s bitcoin investment vehicles
Meanwhile, STRC and MSTR shareholders are also being asked to vote on a separate but related proposal: amending the STRC dividend structure from monthly to semi-monthly payments.
Voting on the amendment opened on April 28 and closes June 8, with the first semi-monthly payment expected on July 15 if approved. Saylor has framed the change as a way to “stabilize price, dampen cyclicality, drive liquidity, and grow demand” — and ultimately to position STRC as what he has called the “biggest credit instrument in the world.”
Strategy currently holds 818,869 Bitcoin acquired at a total cost of approximately $61.81 billion, or an average price of $75,537 per coin. The firm has accumulated over 101,000 Bitcoin since March alone, with more than 56,770 of those purchases occurring after April, as it continues to deploy capital from its preferred equity and at-the-market programs at an accelerating pace.
JPMorgan analysts have projected Strategy’s total Bitcoin purchases for 2026 could reach $30 billion.
THORChain Halts Trading After ZachXBT Flags $10M Exploit
Decentralized liquidity protocol THORChain halted trading after blockchain investigator ZachXBT flagged a suspected exploit of more than $10 million.
A THORChain alerts Telegram channel showed all trading and signing halted, with a global node pause extended until block 26191149, or roughly 12 hours and 42 minutes. The halt came shortly after ZachXBT said the protocol had likely been exploited across Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB Chain and Base.
A wallet labeled by Arkham as the THORChain exploiter showed $10.8 million in holdings, transferred across several smaller transactions in the 30 minutes before 10:11 am UTC.
The suspected exploit adds to the mounting security concerns around decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, after hackers stole over $634 million during April, marking the highest monthly sum since the $1.46 billion in February 2025, when hackers staged the record $1.4 billion hack on Bybit exchange, DefiLlama data shows.
Cointelegraph reached out to THORChain for comment. The protocol had not publicly confirmed the exploit at the time of publication, though ZachXBT and PeckShield flagged suspicious activity, and THORChain alerts showed trading and signing had been halted.
Thorchain exploiter-tagged wallet. Source: Arkham
RUNE price falls 13% after suspected exploit
THORChain’s RUNE token fell by around 13% following the suspected exploit and traded near $0.51 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko data.
RUNE/USD, one-day chart. Source: CoinGecko
The latest correction adds additional pressure to the token’s price action, which is down 72% during the past year.
Related: Kelp DAO exploit prompts DeFi protocols to rethink oracle providers
As a non-custodial cross-chain protocol, THORChain has repeatedly been used by malicious actors to swap stolen funds, though it is not a cryptocurrency mixer like Tornado Cash.
Earlier in April, the attacker behind the $293 million Kelp DAO exploit swapped 75,700 Ether (ETH) through THORChain, generating about $910,000 in revenue for the protocol.
The majority of the $1.4 billion stolen during the Bybit hack, or about $1.2 billion, was also moved through THORChain by hackers, who swapped it from Ether to Bitcoin, according to Bybit co-founder and CEO Ben Zhou.
Strategy to repurchase $1.5 billion of 2029 convertible bonds using cash or bitcoin sales
Led by Michael Saylor, the company aims to retire half of its outstanding 0% 2029 converts as it restructures liabilities tied to its bitcoin treasury strategy.
Winklevoss’ Gemini jumps 25% on $100 million bitcoin infusion despite deepening losses
Gemini’s revenue improved 42% year-over-year to $50.3 million, helping narrow its net loss by 27% from $149.3 million a year earlier.
OKX, Korea Investment and Securities said to be in talks for 40% of Coinone
OKX’s planned move into the South Korean market would echo that of Binance, which completed its acquisition of Seoul-based Gopax last year.
Taurus Secures MiFID II License to Provide Regulated Tokenization Infrastructure for 40+ Global Banks
Taurus SA, the digital asset infrastructure platform serving major financial institutions including Deutsche Bank, Santander, and State Street, has secured a MiFID II investment firm license for its Cyprus-based subsidiary, Taurus (Europe) Ltd.
The authorization from the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) marks a pivotal moment for European capital markets, as Taurus becomes the first pure institutional infrastructure provider—rather than a consumer-facing exchange—to secure MiFID approval across the European Union.
The license allows Taurus to offer regulated investment services for tokenized financial instruments, including bonds, equities, fund shares, and structured products. Crucially, these services can now be passported across all 27 EU member states, providing a unified regulatory framework for banks and asset managers as they move from pilot programs into production.
Regulatory clarity ahead of the MiCA “cliff”
The timing of the authorization is critical. The Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) transitional period is set to end on July 1, 2026, after which unlicensed digital asset providers must cease operations in the EU. Regulators have already begun cracking down; in France, the AMF recently flagged 90 crypto firms operating without necessary licenses.
Unlike most digital asset firms chasing basic Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) authorizations under MiCA, Taurus opted for a MiFID-based framework. This choice reflects the platform’s focus on tokenized securities, which are governed by existing financial services law once structured as financial instruments. By securing MiFID status, Taurus can now support the entire lifecycle of tokenized assets—from issuance and custody to secondary market activity—under a single, high-tier regulatory perimeter.
A push for European digital sovereignty
The move arrives as European banks and policymakers increasingly advocate for independence from U.S. financial infrastructure. KBC, a Taurus client, recently joined a 12-bank European consortium (Qivalis) to launch a MiCAR-compliant euro stablecoin, aimed at breaking away from U.S. payments dominance. Taurus now positions itself as the regulated “supply-side” infrastructure supporting this broader push for European digital asset sovereignty.
With BDO identifying 2026 as the year tokenization moves from “pilot to production,” the multi-trillion-dollar market is beginning to take shape. The new license complements Taurus’s existing FINMA securities firm license obtained in 2021, giving the platform a fully regulated presence across both Switzerland and the European Union.
Sébastien Dessimoz, co-founder and managing partner at Taurus, noted that the license is a cornerstone of the firm’s European strategy. “It allows us to support EU-based entities within a clear regulatory framework as they scale their digital and tokenized asset activities,” Dessimoz stated. As the ECB’s tokenized settlement system prepares to go live later this month, Taurus stands as a key partner for institutions looking to navigate the new era of digital capital markets.
Bitcoin Bear Would Be Record Shallow If $60,000 Was The Low
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Glassnode has pointed out how this Bitcoin bear market has so far seen a peak Unrealized Loss significantly lower than previous cycles.
Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss Has Dropped To Just 8%
In its latest report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed the latest trend in the Relative Unrealized Loss of Bitcoin. This indicator keeps track of the total amount of unrealized loss held by the BTC investors as a percentage of the market cap.
Below is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the metric for BTC over the last few cycles.
Looks like the value of the metric has declined in recent days | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 19, 2026
As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss shot up to a notable level alongside the price plunge in early February, indicating that pain among investors saw a sharp uptick. With the recovery that has followed since then, however, the indicator’s value has gone down.
Today, the Relative Unrealized Loss for the network stands at approximately 8%. The report described this decline in the metric as “a transition that shifts the prevailing sentiment from fear toward uncertainty rather than capitulation.”
Earlier, when the indicator had spiked, its value reached a high of 25%. This means that the February crash had meant that investor losses ballooned to 25% of the entire market cap of the cryptocurrency. This is a notable amount on its own, but a quick look at the chart shows that the level is in fact significantly lower than highs seen during previous bear markets.
At present, it’s unclear which stage the current bear market is inside right now. It’s possible that the fact that the Relative Unrealized Loss hasn’t touched prior peaks yet points to the drawdown not being over. It’s also a possibility, though, that the current cycle is simply going to be different from the previous ones. Glassnode noted:
If $60k proves to have been the cycle low, this bear market would stand as the shallowest on record, one that registered fear but stopped well short of the broad capitulation that has historically marked durable cycle bottoms.
Another on-chain indicator that suggests improvement in market conditions is the Realized Cap, which basically measures the total amount of capital that the investors as a whole have put into Bitcoin.
As the below chart shared by the analytics firm in the same report shows, the 30-day change in the BTC Realized Cap had plunged deep into the negative zone earlier, indicating that capital was leaving the network.
How the capital netflow of the asset has fluctuated over the years | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 19, 2026
Recently, however, the indicator has recovered back into the green zone, implying capital is once again flowing into Bitcoin. Glassnode explained, though:
The current reading, while encouraging, remains significantly below that threshold, suggesting the capital inflow underpinning this recovery lacks the conviction seen at comparable inflection points in the prior cycle.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has been stuck in sideways movement recently as its price is still trading around $81,300.
The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
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