The US Senate’s crypto market structure bill could take until August to pass and risks not advancing at all if lawmakers cannot pass it before the midterms, said Greg Cipolaro, head of research at financial services firm NYDIG.

Patrick Witt, a senior White House crypto adviser, said earlier this month that he was targeting July 4 for the Senate’s crypto bill to pass, saying there was enough time for a Senate markup, floor vote and House vote. 

“This may represent an aspirational benchmark rather than a fixed legislative deadline,” Cipolaro said in a note on Friday. “The realistic window, however, is June through early August.”

The crypto market structure bill would outline how US watchdogs would regulate crypto and is seen as one of the most important pieces of crypto legislation this year. However, it has been marred by delays as lawmakers and lobbyists have sought to add or amend provisions around stablecoins and government officials’ use of crypto, among other issues.

The bill passed a long-delayed markup in the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, which voted largely along party lines to advance it to the Senate floor, where it will need 60 votes to avoid prolonged debate and pass.

Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott, pictured at the markup. Source: US Senate

Republicans hold a 53-seat Senate majority and will need at least seven Democrats on board to pass the bill quickly, but some Democrats are concerned that the bill does not go far enough in preventing crime and sanctions evasion.

Cipolaro said Congress has a recess from late July to early September and will then return to a period ahead of the midterm elections in November, when Senate leadership “is unlikely to schedule a contested 60-vote floor fight.”

“If the bill misses that window, the highest-probability remaining pathway becomes a post-election lame-duck session, available only if Republicans hold the Senate and Majority Leader [John] Thune prioritizes it over government funding deadlines,” he added.

Current polling and predictions show a tight race for control of the Senate, with some forecasts showing Republicans with a slight edge, while others put key seats as tossups that could put Democrats in control of the chamber.

Cipolaro said that if Democrats gain control of the Senate, the current Republican-backed crypto market structure bill is unlikely to advance in the next Congress when it begins in January.

“Congressional negotiators face a tradeoff between accepting an imperfect bipartisan framework in 2026 versus risking a substantially different legislative environment after the midterms.”

Cipolaro said that if the bill is passed and signed into law, crypto markets would get a boost as major institutions would be confident enough to invest in the space because of the legal clarity. 

It would also grant regulatory certainty to Bitcoin, classifying it as a commodity under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and closing “the last significant regulatory overhang for Bitcoin as an institutional asset class,” he added.

However, Cipolaro said the bill could fail because of stalled negotiations over provisions regarding ethics or decentralized finance enforcement, or because of scheduling delays, which would mean the crypto industry would continue to operate under “permanent jurisdictional ambiguity.”

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