Iran has unveiled Hormuz Safe, a Bitcoin-backed insurance service enabling shipping companies to obtain coverage for transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has launched Hormuz Safe, a Bitcoin-settled insurance platform designed for shipping companies transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The platform enables maritime insurers and operators to underwrite and settle coverage using Bitcoin, marking a significant adoption of cryptocurrency for international shipping risk management in a geopolitically sensitive corridor.
The Hormuz Strait, through which roughly one-third of global maritime petroleum trade passes, has been a focal point of shipping vulnerability. Hormuz Safe represents Iran’s direct integration of blockchain settlement infrastructure into maritime commerce, allowing parties to bypass traditional banking channels and settle claims in Bitcoin.
The initiative faces significant headwinds. International recognition remains uncertain, and the platform is exposed to the risk of U.S. secondary sanctions targeting entities facilitating transactions with Iran. Nevertheless, the launch represents an explicit effort by Iran to integrate cryptocurrency into critical economic infrastructure as a sanctions-evasion mechanism.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly poised to release a major crypto proposal as it seeks to institute its digital assets agenda.
Aggressive Bitcoin buying by Strategy helped to offset the recent leveraged long liquidations.
Rising bond yields and a heavy US government debt burden are driving investors toward scarce assets.
A potential deal between the US and Iran could quickly restore traders’ risk appetite.
Bitcoin (BTC) faced a rejection following a failed attempt to break above $82,000 on Thursday. A subsequent retest of the $76,000 level on Monday triggered $400 million in liquidations for bullish Bitcoin positions over a four-day period. While traders’ confidence took a hit from the 7% price decline, the prospects for recovering the $80,000 mark remain valid.
Bitcoin reserve accumulation by Strategy (MSTR US). Source: Strategy
US-listed Strategy (MSTR US) completed the acquisition of $2 billion in BTC over the past week alone. Spearheaded by Michael Saylor, the company continues to surprise investors by finding innovative ways to reduce the cost of capital and raise cash through equity issuance, whether via MSTR common stock or STRC preferred equity.
More importantly, Strategy proved the company can also capitalize on a weaker market by repurchasing $1.5 billion of its debt due in 2029. Retiring some of its senior convertible notes reduces potential future dilution for current MSTR holders. This move clears the runway for new share issuance and additional Bitcoin purchases.
S&P 500 index (left) vs. US 10-year Treasury yield (right). Source: TradingView
From a macroeconomic perspective, the odds of a sustainable bullish momentum for Bitcoin improved as traders demanded higher returns to hold government bonds. Yields on the 10-year Treasury jumped to 4.60%, hitting their highest level in 16 months. Investors are gradually realizing the heavy burden on the US Treasury, especially with $2 trillion in long-term debt maturing in 2026.
US dollar weakness and a potential deal with Iran
The US Federal Reserve will likely need to continue accumulating bonds and Treasurys, a move that potentially weakens the US dollar. Typically, investors seek shelter in scarce assets when they lose confidence in the central bank’s ability to navigate a crisis without devaluing the currency. Even if gold acts as the primary beneficiary, the incentive to hold fixed-income assets drops significantly.
Gold/USD (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView
Gold prices surged in January after the US captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and President Trump’s global trade war escalated. However, gold retraced most of those gains over the next four months, while Bitcoin built strong bullish momentum, jumping to $76,500 from $65,000 in late February. These recent price moves hint at growing confidence in Bitcoin as a reliable hedge instrument.
Related: Analysts debate whether Bitcoin is in ‘sell in May’ bear market setup
Crude Brent oil prices jumped to $113 on Monday as negotiations to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz backpedaled. Oil prices have surged more than 50% since the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February. President Trump’s administration also decided not to renew a waiver for Russian crude oil, further squeezing supply, according to Yahoo Finance.
A deal between the US and Iran, while not the baseline scenario, could trigger renewed risk appetite and catapult the Bitcoin price back above $80,000. Inflation has been pinned down by high energy prices, limiting the odds of expansionary monetary policies. Even so, the odds favor Bitcoin, as the US stock market is hovering near its all-time high while the cryptocurrency still sits 39% below its peak.
The revenue share deal could shift an estimated $160 million in revenue from Coinbase and Circle into Hyperliquid’s ecosystem, Compass Point analysts said.
Bitcoin (BTC) lost its hold on the $80,000 level over the weekend, and data suggest that the cryptocurrency needs to trade above the $74,000-$75,000 range, as it has repeatedly served as key support over the last two years.
Crypto analyst Ardi said the next retest of the $74,000-$75,000 range could become the most important support test of the current bear market.
The analyst pointed to the role that the price range played during the last two years. In 2024, Bitcoin struggled to break above the range during a seven-month-long consolidation. In Q1 2025, the same area held as support before BTC rallied toward its cycle highs at $126,000.
BTC/USD, one-day chart analysis by Ardi. Source: X
Bitcoin is now approaching this level after its 5.78% weekly correction to $77,900. Ardi said the zone carries added weight because several major price pivots formed at $74,000-$75,000 across multiple time frames.
Crypto trader Alex Wacy focused on the $70,000 level. Wacy said holding that area could support a move back toward $85,000-$90,000. Losing it could open the door to a larger decline toward the $50,000-$60,000 range.
Related: BTC price ‘bull trap’ at $76.5K? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin market signal weakens again
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. said the Bitcoin bull-bear structure index turned bearish again after BTC failed to stay above $82,000 earlier this month.
It tracks six indicators linked to exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand, trader activity, exchange flows, and short-term price momentum. A positive reading indicates buyers are in control, while a negative reading points to growing seller pressure.
The bullish signal lasted less than three trading days. On May 6, the index briefly turned positive as Bitcoin climbed near $82,000. By May 17, the reading had dropped to -23.49, indicating that sellers quickly regained control.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data showed more Bitcoin moving onto exchanges from investors who bought BTC six to 12 months ago. The average buying price was around $110,851, meaning many are now sitting on large unrealized losses after the latest drop.
The share of older coins moving to exchanges also surged to 10.54%, far above its usual level below 1%, with market analyst Easy On Chain stating,
“Historically, this reflects investors locking in major losses and exiting the market, creating severe spot-market selling pressure.”
Galaxy has obtained a BitLicense from the New York State Department of Financial Services, regulatory approval to operate a cryptocurrency business in the state.
Galaxy has received a BitLicense from the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), clearing the company to conduct cryptocurrency business activities in New York. The BitLicense is one of the most stringent state-level cryptocurrency regulatory approvals in the United States, requiring applicants to meet detailed compliance, capital, and operational standards.
The BitLicense approval allows Galaxy to legally offer crypto services within New York State, a major financial hub. NYDFS issues BitLicenses to entities seeking to engage in virtual currency business activities, including exchanges, wallet providers, and custodians. The license demonstrates Galaxy’s compliance with New York’s cryptocurrency regulatory framework, which has been considered one of the most demanding in the industry.
Galaxy joins other cryptocurrency companies that have obtained BitLicenses from NYDFS. The approval represents a significant milestone for the company’s regulatory standing and operational scope in one of the world’s largest financial markets.
Sources: PRNewswire
This article was produced with the help of AI flows.
Ether (ETH) dropped sharply after rejection at $2,400 last week, dropping as low as $2,100 on Monday, indicating that bears are back “in control,” according to new analysis.
Key takeaways:
Ether drops 12% after rejection at $2,400 as bears regain control.
Binance sell pressure and ETF outflows signal weak ETH demand.
Analysts warn ETH/USD could fall toward $1,700 if support at $2,000 breaks.
ETH bears selling aggressively
Data from TradingView shows ETH price trading at $2,100, down 12% below its local high of $2,420 reached on May 6. On Sunday, ETH/USD hit $2,090 on Bitstamp, its lowest level since April 17.
The bearish sentiment could be returning to Ether’s market as a key metric from Binance, the largest crypto exchange by trading volume, shows that sellers are starting to dominate the platform’s volumes.
Related: Surging oil prices have been driving Ether selling pressure: Tom Lee
The Binance taker buy volume, which measures the total dollar amount of aggressive sell orders placed by traders on Binance futures, climbed above $1.1 billion within an hour on Sunday as ETH moved toward levels below $2,100.
When this metric spikes during price declines, it often points to forced de-risking or strong short-term bearish pressure from active market participants.
Ether saw “large aggressive sell-volume spikes on Binance while testing important downside levels,” CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha said in a QuickTake note on Monday, adding:
“This does not necessarily confirm the start of a deeper downtrend. However, it shows that sellers were clearly in control during the move.”
ETH taker sell volume on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant
Increasing outflows from ETH investment products added to the sell-side pressure.
Data from SoSoValue shows US-based spot Ethereum ETFs had net outflows for five consecutive days, totalling $255 million.
This suggests that “institutional momentum has hit a localized wall for Ethereum,” analyst Whale Factor said in a Sunday post, adding:
“This heavy sell-side distribution is keeping a tight lid on prices for now. ”
Spot ETH ETF flows chart. Source: SoSoValue
Global Ethereum investment products also saw $249 million in outflows during the week ending May 15, the largest since Jan. 30, data from CoinShares shows.
3.5 million ETH cluster at $2,000 could abate a sell-off
According to Ether’s cost-basis distribution data, investors hold approximately 3.85 million ETH at an average cost basis of $2,000-$2,100, creating a potential support zone. This concentration suggests many investors may add to their positions at break-even, potentially abating another ETH price breakdown.
Ethereum cost basis distribution chart. Source: Glassnode
As Cointelegraph reported, the ETH price could potentially drop toward $1,700 after validating a rising wedge pattern on the daily time frame. Traders, however, say the bearish momentum could be stalled if ETH/USD holds above $2,000.
“$ETH dropped below $2,100 as it failed to hold the $2,150 support zone,” said crypto analyst Ted Pillows in an X post on Tuesday, adding:
“The next key support for Ethereum is the $2,050-$2,070 level, which could provide some bounce back.”
ETH/USD daily chart. Source: X/Ted Pillows
Technical analyst Donald Dean said ETH bulls need to defend the “lower volume shelf support near $2,100” to avoid a move below a rising channel on the daily chart.
ETH/USD daily chart. Source: X/Donald Dean
Fellow analyst Cryptorphic said if the ETH/USD pair fails to “hold this area and consolidates below it, we could see a continuation toward lower support levels,” adding:
“The recent breakdown below the local support area shows that buyers are getting weaker in the short term.”
Meanwhile, Sharplink CEO pointed out three catalysts that the ETH price needs to surge higher, including the passage of the CLARITY Act in the US, a return of marketwide risk appetite, and growth in real-world asset tokenization on Ethereum.
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure
A crypto market analyst has shared his Bitcoin and Ethereum price forecasts for the rest of 2026 quarters. The predictions come at a key moment in the currently volatile market, with investors looking for clear signals heading into the second half of the year. While the analyst’s ETH forecast covers Q2 this year, he focuses more on Bitcoin in the months ahead. He also outlined several market reactions and macroeconomic factors traders should watch for as the year progresses. The forecast gives investors a clearer sense of what to expect as 2026 draws to a close.
Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Forecast For Q2 And Q3
On May 16, Aralez, a crypto expert and trader, released a comprehensive 2026 price prediction covering Ethereum and Bitcoin. For the second quarter of this year, specifically covering May and June, the analyst predicts that the BTC price could crash toward $58,000 while ETH could plunge to $1,700.
At the time of writing, both cryptocurrencies are sitting well above those bearish targets. Bitcoin is currently trading above $76,900, which means a decline to $58,000 would represent a staggering drop of more than 24%. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price is sitting above $2,100, so a slide to $1,700 would reflect a drop of about 19%.
During this period, Aralez expects panic selling to peak across markets, suggesting that fear and uncertainty could grip investors as prices fall into bearish territory. He also predicts that the S&P 500 will decline below $6,800 around the same time, pointing to a broader market sell-off that goes beyond crypto. This suggests that weakness in traditional markets could add more pressure on digital assets and increase risk-off behavior.
Source: Chart from Aralez on X
For his Q3 projection, Aralez boldly projects that the Bitcoin price will hit its final cycle bottom during this period. He noted that whales could also begin reentering the market, quietly accumulating more BTC ahead of a potential new bull trend.
The analyst also points to the upcoming Fed leadership change as a key trigger for a major market shakeout, with the current Chair Jerome Powell set to step down and Kevin Warsh expected to take over. Finally, he warns that peak distrust toward cryptocurrencies could spread across the market, with sentiment turning largely negative even as the market quietly resets and lays the groundwork for a fresh run higher.
Bitcoin Begins Fresh Upward Rally In Q4 2026
In his post on X, Aralez also laid out his Bitcoin outlook for Q4 2026. At this stage, the analyst predicts that the BTC price will flip back into bullish territory and begin a fresh uptrend toward $90,000 and above $109,000.
He expects the crypto market to be flooded with mass artificial intelligence (AI) integrations, fueling a fresh wave of excitement and adoption across the space. According to Aralez, momentum could also return to the market as new narratives bring in millions of participants and investors. Furthermore, he anticipates the beginning of Quantitative Easing (QE) amid global crisis conditions.
BTC trading at $76,930 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
Minnesota-based banking institutions and credit unions are set to offer some crypto custody services beginning in August.
On Friday, Governor Tim Walz signed House File (HF) 3709 into law, permitting “certain virtual-currency custody services to be offered and performed” by financial institutions in the US state.
One of the original sponsors in the Minnesota House of Representatives, Bernie Perryman, said in March that the bill was intended to ensure that “Minnesota-based financial institutions are allowed to evolve alongside their customers and members rather than forcing Minnesotans to rely on unregulated, out-of-state or offshore providers for services.”
The new law authorizes banks and credit unions to provide virtual-currency custody services in a nonfiduciary capacity from Aug. 1. The law amended Minnesota’s statutes to allow the financial institutions to engage “third-party service providers or subcustodians to facilitate virtual-currency custody services,” provided the funds were “legally and operationally segregated” from the bank’s or credit union’s assets and not treated as its property.
Source: Minnesota legislature
The crypto custody law could potentially affect operations at all the financial institutions in the state.
The state’s government information portal shows that, as of May 2025, there were 240 commercial insured banks operating in Minnesota, with about $128 billion in assets, and 82 member-owned credit unions under the Minnesota Credit Union Network. The country’s seventh-largest bank by total assets, U.S. Bancorp, is based in Minneapolis.
In addition to the crypto custody law, Minnesota lawmakers advanced a bill to ban digital asset kiosks and ATMs across the state in response to incidents of residents being scammed.
Crypto companies look to federal regulators for banking, custody services
Earlier in this month, Payward, the parent company of cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, said it had filed with the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) for a national trust company charter. According to the company, it planned to establish Payward National Trust Company with “fiduciary custody and other services primarily for digital assets” if approved.
Payward’s move was one of many by crypto-related companies attempting to secure federal approval under the Trump administration. The OCC approved or conditionally approved similar charter applications for Ripple Labs, BitGo, Circle, Fidelity Digital Assets and Paxos in December, and is considering a charter for World Liberty Financial, the company co-founded by US President Donald Trump and his sons.
Magazine: Bitcoin ETFs bleed $1B, Aave’s $71M ETH unfreeze bid delayed: Hodler’s Digest, May 10 – 16
