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New Federal Reserve Chair Sworn In, but Rate Cut Odds Remain at 0

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New Federal Reserve Chair Sworn In, but Rate Cut Odds Remain at 0

Kevin Warsh was sworn in on Friday as the chairman of the United States Federal Reserve, but investors and traders still forecast no interest rate cuts for the rest of 2026.

Speaking at the ceremony, US President Donald Trump said that Warsh will remain “independent” of the Executive Branch regarding interest rate policy, and claimed that employment numbers are at record levels. 

“Thankfully, unlike some of his predecessors, Kevin understands that when the economy is booming, that’s a good thing,” Trump said. He added:

“We do have some debt we would like to take care of, and the way you do that is through growth. We are going to grow our way out of it so fast.” 

Warsh, pictured on the left, is sworn into office by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. Source: The White House

“We want to stop inflation, but we don’t want to stop greatness,” Trump continued, drawing mixed reactions from investors and economists, who weighed the likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing to expand the monetary supply through low interest rates.

Lower interest rates are stimulative for risk-on assets like Bitcoin and crypto; however, cheap access to credit can also cause inflationary spikes, as individuals and institutions are encouraged to borrow cheaply and spend money on investments and commercial goods.

Related: Senate confirms Kevin Warsh to lead Federal Reserve

Investors forecast a 0% likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2026

Investors forecast no chance of an interest rate cut in 2026, and potential rate hikes at the remaining Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) FedWatch tool.

3.5% of investors forecast a 25 basis point (BPS) interest rate hike at the next FOMC meeting, scheduled for June 17, according to CME data. For context, the current Federal Funds Target rate is between 350 and 375 BPS. 

Interest rate target probabilities for the June FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

The probability of a 25 BPS rate hike at the July FOMC meeting surged to 17%, and about 67% of investors forecast a rate hike at the FOMC’s final meeting in December.

The lack of interest rate cuts and macroeconomic uncertainty regarding the change at the Federal Reserve could negatively impact risk assets like Bitcoin, crypto and equities over the next several months.

Magazine: Will the CLARITY Act be good — or bad — for DeFi?

XRP Ledger Activity Surges, But What Is Stopping Price Breakout?

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XRP Ledger Activity Surges, But What Is Stopping Price Breakout?

XRP Ledger has seen a spike in new addresses over the last 24 hours, but overhead resistance at $1.40 kept the XRP (XRP) price in check.

Key takeaways:

  • XRP Ledger added 4,300 new wallets in 24 hours, marking the fourth-largest growth spike on the network in 2026.
  • XRP price recovery may face resistance at $1.40, with a prolonged consolidation likely.

XRP Ledger sees fourth-largest growth spike in 2026

The XRP Ledger recorded one of its strongest growth surges of the year after adding 4,300 new wallets within 24 hours, the “fourth largest spike of 2026,” according to Santiment.

Related: XRP price may explode to $15 amid ‘quiet accumulation,’ analyst claims

The chart below shows that newly created XRP wallets increased to 4,300 on May 20, from about 2,500 on May 19. Similarly, daily active addresses increased to 43,520 from 32,000 over the same period.

“XRP is seeing one of its largest network growth stretches of the year,” the market intelligence firm said in a Thursday post on X, adding: 

“Network growth is among the top leading signals to identify reversals.”

XRP Ledger active addresses and network growth. Source: Santiment

“When wallets rise like this, smart money pays attention,” analyst Amonyx commented, adding:

“$XRP reversal signal?”

Fellow analyst Niroshan682 said new wallet creation is often an “early signal of new network participation,” especially when it happens alongside growing institutional adoption and rising ETF inflows.

US-based spot XRP ETFs held about 1.34% of the XRP total supply after this month’s inflows. About $107.3 million worth of XRP ETFs flowed in May so far, with the $8.8 million in net inflows on Thursday marking the 12th straight day of positive flows.

This streak has pushed cumulative inflows to nearly $1.4 billion and assets under management (AUM) to $1.15 billion.

Spot XRP ETF flows chart. Source: SoSoValue

Despite these positive fundamentals, XRP/USD is down 1.5% over the last 24 hours, and remains 62% below its $3.66 multi-year high reached in July 2025. 

XRP faces stiff overhead resistance

XRP’s latest 21% rally from the local low at $1.27 reached on April 5 stalled at $1.55, coinciding with the upper limit of a range that has capped its price action since early February. 

Bulls must push the price above the $1.40-$1.55 resistance zone to confirm a breakout from consolidation. This area is also defined by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the 100-day SMA and the 100-day exponential moving average, as shown in the chart below.

XRP/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

According to XRP’s cost-basis distribution data, investors hold approximately 3.75 billion XRP at an average cost of $1.37-$1.45, creating a potential resistance zone. 

This concentration suggests many investors may sell at break-even, potentially stalling XRP’s upward momentum.

XRP cost basis distribution chart. Source: Glassnode

Another supply congestion zone is higher up at $1.68-$1.70, where investors bought approximately 3.8 billion XRP. This level coincides with the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, which is setting up the XRP/USD pair for a breakout, according to analyst Crypto Michael. 

Note that a weekly close above the wedge’s upper trend line could open the way for a rally toward the measured target at $3.52, about 50% above the current price. 

XRP/USD weekly chart. Source: Crypto Michael. 

As Cointelegraph reported, buyers will have to push XRP/USD above the multi-month trend line at $1.40 to signal a comeback, while a close above $1.61 would confirm a potential trend change. 

Altcoin rotation heats up as bitcoin flatlines for fourth straight day

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Altcoin rotation heats up as bitcoin flatlines for fourth straight day

Crypto majors bitcoin BTC$74,670.21 and ether (ETH) head into the weekend having been confined to a tight trading range over the past four days, with BTC being trapped between $76,100 and $78,000.

The lack of volatility has led to little pockets of the altcoin market benefitting from the speculative nature of crypto investors. The AI sector was the recipient of such speculation on Friday as NEAR increased by 28.5% while FET posted an 11.4% gain in the past 24 hours.

Conversely, privacy coins DASH, ZEC and XMR experienced a wave of sell pressure on Friday, eroding much of their early week rally, indicating that sector rotation is in full effect.

Brent crude oil dropped to $102 per barrel on Friday, down from $112 seen earlier this week as speculation swirls around a potential peace deal between Iran and the U.S.

U.S. equities responded well to the drop off in oil; Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high on Friday, while Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are now up by 3% and 1.7% respectively since Tuesday’s low, suggesting a return to risk-on sentiment.

Derivatives positioning

  • Crypto futures market-wide volume rose modestly by 1% to $160 billion in the last 24 hours, while notional open interest (OI) remained stable near $128 billion. Liquidations declined sharply by 26% to $200 million. This setup reflects a calmer market with reduced forced liquidations, even as volume growth remains relatively muted.
  • Today’s standout token is Near Protocol’s NEAR, which has gained over 25%. With the price rise, OI in futures tied to the token has surged to a record high of 282.53 million tokens. The OI-adjusted 24-hour cumulative volume delta is positive, a sign of aggressive buying at market orders rather than passive limit orders. This validates the upswing in prices. And last but not least, funding rates remain mildly positive, suggesting healthy leverage conditions and no overheating.
  • Markets tied to TRX and LINK display a similar bullish profile, characterized by OI growth, positive CVDs and positive funding rates.
  • The bitcoin market offers little excitement, with OI steady in the recent 720K BTC to 750K BTC range. The same can be said for ether.
  • Both BTC and ETH’s annualized 30-day implied volatility indices continue to slide. That’s a sign of relentless volatility selling via options, mostly call overwriting.
  • On Deribit, bitcoin puts at strikes ranging from $71,000 to $77,000 dominate the 24-hour volume rankings. Similar volume concentration is seen in ether puts. A put option offers protection against price losses in the underlying asset.

Token talk

  • CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX) was up by 1.1% on Friday, outperforming the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index (SCPXC), up by just 0.3%, and the CoinDesk Memecoin Select Index (CDMEME) after it tumbled by 1%.
  • The altcoin market was generally a mixed bag on Friday; XRP, SOL and ETH all lost ground alongside the privacy coin sector while the likes of HYPE and ATOM continue to show relative strength, with the later posting a 5% gain since midnight UTC.
  • HYPE, the native token of perpetual exchange HyperLiquid, has been its own animal this week – rising to a barnstorming record high after surging by around 60% since Tuesday.
  • The move comes alongside heavy short interest and a wave of liquidations coupled with institutional participation following the launch of spot ETFs in the U.S. this month.
  • CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator rose from 31/100 to 38/100 this week, buoyed by HYPE’s strong performance.

ECB Rejects Euro Stablecoin Push, Warning of Risks to Banks and Monetary Policy

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ECB Rejects Euro Stablecoin Push, Warning of Risks to Banks and Monetary Policy

The European Central Bank warned EU finance ministers on Friday that proposals to expand euro stablecoin issuance could weaken bank lending and complicate monetary policy, according to three sources cited by Reuters.

The pushback came in response to a policy paper prepared by Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, whose authors presented their proposals at the two-day informal meeting of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council in Nicosia, Cyprus. The paper called for easing liquidity requirements for stablecoin issuers and potentially granting them access to ECB funding, arguing that these measures were necessary if the euro stablecoin market was to compete with dollar-backed rivals.

Europeans conduct 38% of global stablecoin transactions, yet euro-denominated tokens account for just 0.3% of total supply, per the policy paper. Circle’s EURC (EURC), the largest euro stablecoin, ranks only 12th globally, according to CoinMarketCap.

Top euro stablecoins. Source: CoinMarketCap

The question at the heart of the Nicosia meeting was whether Europe wants to close that gap badly enough to extend central bank-style support to stablecoin issuers. However, the ECB’s answer, for now, appears to be no.

Related: MiCA Made Euro Stablecoins Safe but Too Small, Report Says

Euro stablecoins could destabilize banks

ECB President Christine Lagarde led the resistance, warning that stablecoin issuance makes bank deposits less stable by transferring buyers’ funds to issuers’ accounts, according to Reuters. At scale, policymakers fear this accelerates disintermediation, raises bank funding costs and erodes the ECB’s ability to manage interest rates.

Several central bankers at the meeting also openly questioned the Bruegel proposal to position the ECB as a lender of last resort for stablecoin firms, an arrangement currently reserved for regulated banks, per the report.

In a speech at the Banco de España LatAm Economic Forum in Spain earlier this month, Lagarde argued that euro stablecoins could generate additional demand for euro-area safe assets but warned that the trade-offs, including financial stability risks, redemption pressures and weaker monetary policy transmission, outweigh the benefits.

Instead of stablecoins, Lagarde pointed to tokenized financial infrastructure anchored by central bank money as Europe’s preferred path, citing the Eurosystem’s Pontes project for wholesale settlement and the Appia roadmap for interoperable tokenized finance.

Related: European Banks Back MiCA Euro Stablecoin to Rival Dollar Tokens

EU central bankers shrug off digital dollarization fears

The Bruegel authors warned that stricter EU rules compared to the US risked accelerating digital dollarization, pushing activity outside the bloc. However, central bankers at the meeting largely dismissed that concern, with several calling instead for restrictions on European redemptions of both US and EU-issued stablecoins to guard against reserve runs, according to the Reuters report.  

The debate comes as the EU reviews its Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, which requires stablecoin issuers to hold large reserves in liquid assets, in contrast to the lighter-touch US GENIUS Act.

Market Moves: Why is Ethereum Foundation selling? BTC futures warning signs

Bitcoin tanks to $74,300 as spot ETFs bleed $2.26 billion in two weeks

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Bitcoin tanks to $74,300 as spot ETFs bleed $2.26 billion in two weeks

Bitcoin BTC$74,703.02 is rapidly losing ground as investors pull out billions of dollars from U.S.-listed spot ETFs.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell to $74,305 early Saturday, its lowest level since April 20, according to CoinDesk data. As of writing, BTC was down more than 3% over the past 24 hours and approximately 10% below its recent high of over $82,500 reached on May 6.

The sell-off accompanies a notable upswing in U.S. Treasury yields and parallel increases in government bond yields across developed markets, which are reducing appetite for high-risk, zero-yielding assets like bitcoin.

Investors withdrew $1.26 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs this week, the largest single-week outflow since January, following roughly $1 billion in outflows the previous week. In total, the funds have seen more than $2.26 billion in redemptions over the past two weeks.

Meanwhile, commodities such as oil, copper, and sulfur are seeing strong flows of speculative money as markets continue to price in potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran conflict.

One theory also points to capital being redirected toward SpaceX’s anticipated IPO, with several blockchain-based pre-market derivatives tied to the event already seeing millions in trading volume on blockchain-based platforms.

Bitcoin (BTC) left behind in the geopolitical melee: Crypto Daily

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Bitcoin (BTC) left behind in the geopolitical melee: Crypto Daily

The current state of financial markets is best described as macro-geopolitics first, crypto second.

The evidence is clear. Despite recent positive regulatory developments related to the Clarity Act, bitcoin BTC$75,328.36 has shown little excitement, trading near $77,200 – largely unchanged over the past 24 hours and for the week.

Meanwhile, oil remains elevated near $100 and speculative capital is pouring into copper amid fears of a sulfur shortage. The connection? Copper production is heavily dependent on sulfuric acid, whose supply has been disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz.

In essence, everything is revolving around Hormuz, driving commodity flows and prices higher, stoking inflation fears, lifting bond yields, which are supposedly weighing over crypto. The U.S. stocks, meanwhile, hover near record highs, driven by AI optimism.

Bitcoin is not at the center of this geo-economic and AI repricing.

It is no surprise, therefore, that U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs continue to bleed, recording $1.15 billion in outflows this week after $1 billion last week, according to SoSoValue. The Coinbase premium, a key gauge of U.S. demand relative to the rest of the world, has hit monthly lows.

Analysts have repeatedly emphasized that these indicators need marked improvement before a sustained rally can take hold. The question is whether that will happen while markets remain fixated on geopolitics and AI.

In the meantime, certain corners of the crypto market, particularly on-chain perpetuals and quantum-resistant tokens, continue to show strength, driven by specific news and narratives, as we discussed Thursday. Layer-1 blockchain Near Protocol’s token (NEAR) is the latest addition to that group, surging over 25% in the past 24 hours following the announcement of a major upgrade focused on automated scaling and quantum resilience.

In traditional markets, Nasdaq futures have surrendered early gains and are trading largely flat. Analysts remain broadly bullish on stocks following the latest earnings season. Stay alert.

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

Today’s signal

HYPE’s RSI is flashing overbought conditions. (TradingView)

HYPE’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged above 70. While readings above 70 are widely labeled as “overbought,” this interpretation is often misleading.

The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. A reading above 70 simply signals strong bullish momentum and suggests that the uptrend may still have room to run. It does not automatically mean the asset is overvalued or due for an imminent reversal, as the popular narrative often implies.

In strong trending markets, RSI can remain elevated for extended periods without triggering a meaningful pullback.

Hyperliquid ETFs Surpass $69 Million in Net Inflows

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Hyperliquid ETFs Surpass $69 Million in Net Inflows

Spot ETFs tracking Hyperliquid ($THYP and $BHYP) attracted over $16 million in flows yesterday, bringing cumulative net inflows to $69 million.

Hyperliquid’s spot exchange-traded funds have accumulated over $69 million in total net inflows, with $16 million entering the funds yesterday alone. The two ETFs—$THYP and $BHYP—continue to attract significant capital from institutional and retail investors seeking exposure to the Hyperliquid ecosystem.

The sustained inflow trajectory reflects growing institutional adoption of Hyperliquid-related financial products. The $16 million daily inflow demonstrates persistent market demand for tokenized exposure to the platform’s native assets.

Sources: JSeyff

Wall Street and crypto are merging again as OKX rolls out traditional oil benchmarks

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Wall Street and crypto are merging again as OKX rolls out traditional oil benchmarks

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange, and OKX announced Friday that they are joining forces to roll out perpetual oil futures.

In a joint statement, the firms’ said ICE’s futures prices for Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will bolster the new perpetual contracts on OKX.

The new perpetual contracts based on ICE’s data will open energy benchmark product access to OKX’s 120 million retail traders, said Trabue Bland, senior vice president of futures exchanges at ICE.

The new contracts will be available on OKX, in which ICE holds a stake, across territories where the crypto company is already licensed to offer perpetual futures.

“Oil markets are critical to the world economy,” Haider Rafique, global managing partner at OKX, said in the statement. Bringing ICE’s benchmarks “into regulated perpetual futures is exactly the kind of bridge between traditional and digital markets that market participants have been asking for.”

The ICE and OKX foray into oil perps comes as Hyperliquid’s oil futures contracts that never expire have proven to be a tremendous success, consistently generating roughly $1.6 billion in daily trading volume and more than $1.3 billion in open interest.

Perpetual futures, also known as “perps,” are a type of derivative contract that give traders the ability to bet on prices of assets such as oil or bitcoin. But unlike traditional futures, perps never expire, so traders don’t have to take possession of physical barrels of oil or roll over those contracts.

Most perpetual products are offered on offshore exchanges and are not regulated the same way traditional commodity exchanges such as ICE and CME Group Inc. are in the U.S., but Michael Selig, the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), recently said he will bring them under his agency’s oversight soon.

In a sign of the increasing confluence of crypto and traditional financial (TradFi) firms, ICE and OKX signed a deal in March to build technology, including blockchain networks, that would give ICE’s customers access to crypto-based futures and OKX customers the ability to trade tokenized securities on NYSE’s platform. ICE also made a strategic investment valuing the San Jose, California-based company at $25 billion.

Tom Lee says SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs could reshape markets

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Tom Lee says SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs could reshape markets

Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies and co-founder of Fundstrat, does not expect the coming wave of mega IPOs to derail markets even if they could eclipse the entire dot-com boom in scale.

Lee recently discussed the potential effect of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI listing which could unleash trillions of dollars in new equity supply into public markets.

In inflation adjusted terms, Elon Musk’s SpaceX alone could become the second largest IPO ever, seeking a market valuation above $1.5 trillion, behind only Saudi Aramco.

Lee acknowledged concerns about the amount of supply these listings could introduce into public markets, especially after the standard 90-day lock-up periods expire. He noted that SpaceX is likely the most anticipated IPO ever, Lee estimates the three IPOs could generate trillions in supply, equivalent to roughly 5% to 6% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization.

Despite the scale, Lee does not believe the situation is necessarily outright bearish for the markets. He argues that family offices, pensions, and high net worth investors currently hold historically low allocations to public equities after years of favoring private markets and alternative investments.

There is significant capital available to absorb the liquidity as allocations rotate back toward U.S. public stocks, in Lee’s view.

He also expects many early investors to hedge or borrow against holdings rather than immediately sell and trigger large tax events.

Lee also discussed cryptocurrency’s underperformance against expectations despite growing institutional interest, highlighting how instant settlement and transaction verification are driving Wall Street’s push towards tokenisation, a point he previously made at Consensus Miami 2026.

Furthermore, Lee believes blockchain could provide a neutral framework for identity verification in an AI driven world. Banks are increasingly circling the industry because they recognize the significant revenue opportunities emerging from the convergence of crypto, AI, and finance, he added.

NEAR surges 19.4% as index trades flat

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NEAR surges 19.4% as index trades flat

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 2085.44, down 0.0% (-0.18) since 4 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Fourteen of the 20 assets are trading higher.

Leaders: NEAR (+19.4%) and ICP (+4.3%).

Laggards: SUI (-2.6%) and XRP (-1.0%).

The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

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