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Will BTC Price Keep Rising in June?

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Will BTC Price Keep Rising in June?

Bitcoin (BTC) erased its intraday losses and rose by around 2.5% to $62,410 immediately after the US inflation report, even as the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit its highest level in more than three years.

BTC/USD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin rose as the latest US CPI reading matched economists’ expectations.
  • BTC still faces short-term downside risks as it trades below strong resistance levels.

May US inflation matched expectations

The US CPI rose 4.2% year over year in May. On a monthly basis, headline inflation increased 0.5%, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.9% annually and 0.2% month over month.

US headline and core CPI. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Yahoo Finance

The headline jump came largely from higher energy and gasoline prices, as renewed Middle East tensions lifted oil prices and reignited inflation concerns.

At first glance, the report looked bearish for Bitcoin. Higher inflation usually reduces the odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts, keeps Treasury yields elevated, and tightens financial conditions. That typically pressures risk assets, including crypto.

But BTC rallied because the inflation print did not come in worse than feared.

Economists had already expected headline CPI to hit 4.2%. The actual number matched that forecast, removing the risk of a hotter surprise.

Traders did not see the report as strong enough to force the Fed into a tougher stance, giving them room to buy risk assets again.

That gave Bitcoin the chance to bounce from long-term support zones, including the 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA, the blue line) and the psychological $60,000–$62,000 price floor area, as shown below.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Is Bitcoin undergoing a bullish reversal?

Bitcoin’s post-CPI rebound does not yet confirm a full bullish reversal.

From a technical perspective, BTC still trades below key short-term resistance levels, including the 20-period SMA, shown in green, and the 50-period SMA, shown in red, on the four-hour chart.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC also appears to be consolidating inside a bear flag pattern.

This setup forms when the price rebounds inside an upward-sloping parallel channel after a sharp decline. In simple terms, the bounce may only be a pause before the next leg lower, not the start of a new uptrend.

As a rule of technical analysis, a bear flag confirms when price breaks below the flag’s lower trend line. The measured downside target equals the height of the previous sell-off, projected from the breakdown point.

That puts Bitcoin’s bearish target near $57,800 in June, down about 7.6% from current levels.

Bitcoin relief bounce scenario also in play

Conversely, a clear breakout above the resistance confluence, comprising the 20-period SMA, the 50-period SMA, and the flag’s upper trend line, would weaken the bear flag structure and invalidate the immediate downside setup.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: TradingView

In that scenario, Bitcoin could extend its recovery toward the $64,000–$68,000 range in June, aligning with the 0.236 and 0.318 Fibonacci retracement lines.

Soft core inflation gave crypto a bounce, but only bitcoin held up on the week

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Soft core inflation gave crypto a bounce, but only bitcoin held up on the week

Crypto caught a modest bid on Thursday after Wednesday’s inflation report showed underlying price pressures staying contained. Bitcoin rose about 1.9% over 24 hours to roughly $62,600, leading the majors, per CoinDesk data.

Headline inflation rose 0.5% on the month and 4.2% over the year, the fastest annual pace since April 2023, but energy did most of the work, climbing 3.9% on the month and accounting for more than 60% of the increase as oil rose on the Iran conflict.

Core inflation, which strips out food and energy and is the gauge the Federal Reserve leans on, rose just 0.2% on the month, below the 0.3% forecast, and 2.9% over the year.

The bounce is shallow and concentrated in bitcoin. BTC is down less than 1% over the past seven days, holding its 200-week average, while the rest of the top tokens remain deep in the red on the week. Ether is off about 6.5% at roughly $1,651, XRP down 7.5% near $1.12, Solana down 7.4% around $65, and dogecoin off 7%. BNB held up better at a 2.1% weekly loss.

Traders now await Fed’s June 17 meeting, where markets expect no change to rates. The hot headline gives hawks cover to stay restrictive, while the soft core gives doves room to argue the pressure is narrow and energy-driven.

Another widely-cited catalyst is the public offering of Elon Musk-owned satellite, rockets and AI company SpaceX, which prices later Thursday and is expected to start trading on Friday at a $1.8 trillion valuation.

Shares for the company are already four times oversubscribed, with some singular entities bidding as much as $10 billion for the stock, per Bloomberg.

Bitcoin DAT buying collapses from $500 million per day to nearly negligeble

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Bitcoin DAT buying collapses from $500 million per day to nearly negligeble

Bitcoin BTC$62,537.61 has lost buyers on two fronts.

The exodus from spot ETFs as a catalyst for the recent bitcoin price swoon is well documented. Less discussed is the equally steep drop in buying by digital asset treasuries, or firms whose core business is accumulating bitcoin as a treasury asset.

“As BTC broke down from the mid-$70Ks toward $60K, net inflows from corporate treasury firms fell sharply, with daily purchases slowing to a fraction of their recent pace,” analysts at Glassnode said in the latest market update.

“While companies remain net buyers overall, the decline in accumulation suggests this cohort is becoming more cautious, removing another source of marginal demand at a time when broader market sentiment remains weak,” they said.

Daily purchases by DAT firms, smoothed using a 7-day moving average. (Glassnode)

The green and red bars show the dollar value of daily net purchases by digital asset firms since June 2025, smoothed using a seven-day moving average.

The DAT demand has pretty much evaporated this month, down significantly from multiple instances of over $500 million in daily accumulation observed through April and May.

That partly explains BTC’s quick slide from $74,000 to under $60,000 last week.

Some analysts believe the sell-off was mainly catalyzed by Strategy, the world’s largest publicly listed BTC holder, disclosing that it sold 32 BTC in the final week of May. The firm, however, returned to the market during last week’s sell-off, snapping up BTC worth around $100 million. But that failed to keep prices from falling below $60,000.

As of writing, bitcoin changed hands at around $62,500.

The U.S.-listed spot ETFs remain another major headwind, continuing to bleed capital and reducing the odds of a sustained price rebound. On Wednesday, the 11 funds posted an outflow of $213.85 million, according to SoSoValue. Total redemptions have exceeded $5.72 billion since the second week of May.

Bitcoin has reached a deep bear-market valuation zone

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Bitcoin has reached a deep bear-market valuation zone

Bitcoin is trading near a level it has usually reached only late in bear markets, and it has held there even after the hottest U.S. inflation print in three years.

Checkonchain data show BTC fell toward close to its 200-week average, a rough four-year trend line watched by long-term holders. The model puts bitcoin in the bottom 10% of its historical valuation range, a zone that has appeared only during the deepest parts of past bear markets.

The mood in the market is just as washed out. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index – a measure of sentiment calculated using volatility, social media posts, and market volumes – sits at 9, deep in extreme fear, down from 11 last week and 48 a month ago.

Those readings usually show up when price-sensitive sellers have already done most of their selling. Checkonchain still warns that bottoms are a process where capitulation comes first followed by months of sideways trading that grind down the holders who stayed.

Bitcoin briefly broke below $60,000 this week for the first time since 2024 and changed hands at $62,623 on Thursday, up 1.9% on the day but lower over the week, with a record run of ETF outflows still pulling money out.

The bounce was broad but shallow. Ether rose 1.4% to $1,651, BNB added 1.3% to $595, solana gained 0.9% to $65 and dogecoin 1.1% to $0.085. XRP was the laggard, down 0.3% at $1.12. All of them remain lower over the past seven days, led by ether at 6.5% and XRP at 7.5%. Thursday’s gains dent the weekly slide rather than reverse it.

Inflation is not helping the case for a quick recovery. US consumer prices rose 0.5% in May from April and 4.2% from a year earlier, the fastest annual pace since early 2023, as the Iran war pushed up energy costs, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Wednesday.

The core measure, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.2%, less than economists expected, the one soft spot in an otherwise hot report.

“Hopes for US regulatory clarity have faded again, with Polymarket odds of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 dropping from 62% to 48% this week,” Yves Renno, head of Trading at global crypto payments platform Wirex, told CoinDesk.

“All eyes now turn to the FOMC on June 16th–17th, and Warsh’s tone will be decisive in determining whether Bitcoin bounces toward $68–72K or breaks below $60K entirely.”

Meanwhile, the pressure runs well beyond crypto. Global equities fell to a more than one-month low this week as a technology-led selloff deepened and US forces struck multiple targets in Iran, collapsing the ceasefire that had held since April.

MSCI’s All Country World Index, the broadest measure of global stocks, slipped to its lowest since May 5, and its Asia Pacific gauge fell 0.8% to a three-week low. Brent crude rose 1.8% to about $95 a barrel. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates later Thursday for the first time since September 2023, with bond traders pricing in higher borrowing costs worldwide.

Binance Stock Trading Draws 84% of First-Week Volume From Emerging Markets

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Binance Stock Trading Draws 84% of First-Week Volume From Emerging Markets

Binance’s direct stock-trading platform drew more than 80% of its first-week volume from emerging markets, with assets under management crossing $400 million within seven days. The 2% share of TradFi-referenced perpetuals volume positions the June 1 launch as a distribution play for underserved retail users.

Binance’s direct stock-trading platform drew more than 80% of its first-week volume from emerging markets, according to data the company published this morning. The figures position the June 1 launch as a distribution play for underserved retail users, with a 2% share of TradFi-referenced perpetuals volume as the opening benchmark.

Assets under management in stocks crossed $400 million within the first seven days, Binance said in a press release published Wednesday. Emerging-market users generated approximately 84% of total trading volume, per Binance Research’s data thread published Tuesday on X.

Who Is Trading

One in four users was under 25. Nearly 40% of trades were placed for less than $100, and the minimum ticket is $5, against minimum deposits of $500 to $10,000 on many conventional brokerages. Around 10% of product-page visitors registered; roughly 64% of those sign-ups placed at least one trade. Seventy percent of users held positions rather than closing on the same day.

Shunyet Jan, Binance’s Head of Spot and Derivatives Business, said in the press release that the data shows user demand materializes in emerging markets, younger demographics, and trade sizes traditional platforms were not built to serve.

Where the Money Went

Information Technology captured 57% of sector allocation in week one. Semiconductors and hardware alone took roughly 44% of total inflows, a concentration Binance Research tied to user conviction around AI infrastructure. Funds and ETPs followed at 20%. Users traded across more than 1,100 assets; 124 of those each exceeded $100,000 in traded value.

Context

The week-one figures come nine days after Binance launched direct US equities trading for eligible non-US users, opening access to more than 7,000 US-listed stocks and ETFs through its ADGM-regulated broker Nest Trading Limited, with custody handled by Alpaca. That launch, covered by Converge on June 1, also previewed bStocks, a forthcoming tokenized-securities product issued through an ADGM-registered special purpose vehicle and pending regulatory approval.

Binance Research noted the crypto spot-to-perps ratio has historically run around 15%, framing that as the longer-term convergence target if direct equities trading scales. Whether the emerging-market skew and holding behavior persist beyond the launch window will determine whether the distribution thesis holds.

XRP Demand Falls 91.5% As Traders Eye $0.63 Support

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XRP Demand Falls 91.5% As Traders Eye $0.63 Support

XRP’s (XRP) onchain activity has contracted sharply since its 2025 peak. The 90-day network fee average fell by 91.5%, while the realized profit-to-loss ratio dropped to 0.38 from 50, according to Glassnode. 

The decline in activity and profitability comes as traders identify the $1.00-$0.65 region as a major area of interest.  

XRP profit-taking flips to network capitulation

According to Glassnode, the 90-day simple moving average of total fees paid on the XRP network has fallen to just 500 XRP from 5,900 XRP in February, a decline of 91.5%.

The network fees are often used as a proxy for transaction demand. The drop points to a sharp slowdown in activity following the speculative surge that carried XRP above $3 in the first half of 2025.

XRP total transaction fees. Source: Glassnode

XRP investor behavior has also shifted. Glassnode reported that XRP’s 90-day realized profit-to-loss ratio has fallen to 0.38, meaning market participants are realizing $1 in losses for every $0.38 in profits.

In January and July 2025, when the XRP price peaked near $3.40, the ratio reached 50 as profit-taking dominated the onchain flows. That balance has now reversed. This indicates that a larger share of onchain coins are being sold below their acquisition cost, a pattern commonly seen during capitulation phases.

XRP realized profit/loss ratio. Source: Glassnode

Exchange data offers a different view of holder activity. Crypto analyst Pelin Ay noted that transfers of more than 1 million XRP to Binance have declined since XRP’s 2025 peak. 

Historically, major corrections were preceded by sharp increases in both the 100,000–1 million XRP and 1 million-plus XRP inflow cohorts as large holders moved tokens to exchanges. 

The current data shows a sustained decline in exchange-bound XRP from large holders, with inflows from the 100,000–1 million XRP and 1 million-plus XRP cohorts decreasing by 15% and 20%, respectively, since October 2025. 

The analyst said the latest price weakness appears more closely tied to leverage-driven liquidations and risk-off sentiment than aggressive distribution by large holders.

XRP exchange inflows value bands on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Arthur Hayes dumps WLD days after Maelstrom’s AI IPO pitch

$0.63 is the key area for accumulation

XRP’s weekly chart highlights a cluster of technical levels between $1.00 and $0.65.

A large fair value gap spans roughly $0.63 to $1.00, created during XRP’s rapid rally in late 2024. The price has already started moving back toward that zone after losing support near $1.40.

XRP/USDT, one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The visible-range volume profile data shows relatively light trading activity below current levels until a high-volume node around $0.50–$0.65. The point of control, which marks the price area with the highest traded volume, sits near $0.52–$0.55.

The same region aligns with XRP’s five-year ascending trendline, projected to intersect near $0.60–$0.65 in the coming months.

Some traders are already treating the zone as an accumulation range. Trader Crypto Patel identified $1.00 to $0.60 as a preferred buying range, while market analyst Javon Marks maintained his long-term breakout target of $15–$18, representing a 1,100% increase. 

XRP long-term analysis by Javon Marks. Source: X

Related: ETH crash to $1K looms if key support breaks: Will futures traders step in?

Michael Saylor gets into public back-and-forth with critics

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Michael Saylor gets into public back-and-forth with critics

Tempers are flaring as the bitcoin BTC$60,930.61 bear market deepens.

Strategy’s (MSTR) latest bitcoin purchase has sparked a public debate on X between Executive Chairman Michael Saylor and bitcoin advocate Matthew Kratter over whether the company’s most recent capital raise was accretive or dilutive for shareholders.

The disagreement centers on Strategy’s own bitcoin performance metric, BTC Yield, which is designed to track changes in bitcoin holdings per assumed diluted share. According to Strategy’s latest figures, BTC Yield fell from 13.0% on June 1 to 12.8% on June 8, after the company acquired an additional 1,550 BTC.

Kratter argued that the decline shows the transaction was dilutive on a bitcoin-per-share basis. Over the same period, Strategy’s bitcoin holdings rose from 843,706 BTC to 845,256 BTC, while assumed diluted shares outstanding increased from 382.756 million to 384.180 million. BTC Gain YTD also fell from 87,754 BTC to 86,328 BTC.

Saylor pushed back, saying BTC Yield is a narrow KPI that measures only bitcoin per share, not total shareholder accretion. Saylor said the transaction also added approximately $100 million of U.S. dollar reserves, taking the total USD reserve to $1 billion, making the deal accretive when both bitcoin and cash are included.

If viewed strictly through BTC Yield, the latest raise appears dilutive. But if cash reserves and broader balance-sheet effects are included, Saylor argues that the transaction improved shareholder value.

Others jumped in. “Notice they keep changing the rules to fit the financial alchemy they’re doing,” sniped Wazz. “First $BTC yield was boasted everywhere and plastered accross every buy announcement as the standard accretive metric. Now it’s a ‘narrow KPI’ which is irrelevant.”

“As a short seller, I’ve watched innumerable companies ‘move the goalposts,’ and try and focus the market on new metrics when old ones aren’t showing the story they want them to anymore,” wrote Quoth the Raven. “Sometimes, companies outright delete key performance indicators (KPIs) and use new ones.”

Lava Network Signs Tokenization Pact for Planned 40,000-Unit Caribbean Project

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Lava Network Signs Tokenization Pact for Planned 40,000-Unit Caribbean Project

The agreement with developer BHL Group is an early-stage memorandum of understanding, and the Alba Bay community is not slated to break ground until 2027

Lava Network, a blockchain infrastructure protocol, has signed a preliminary agreement to help design a tokenization sandbox for Alba Bay, a planned Caribbean residential development of more than 40,000 units. Lava said it is the protocol’s first real-world asset mandate.

BHL says the project will span nearly 40 million square meters, cost multiple billions of dollars and target construction starting in the first quarter of 2027.

The arrangement is a non-binding memorandum of understanding, and BHL Group, the developer, pays Lava nothing upfront, the company said in written answers to questions from The Defiant. No units have been tokenized and no infrastructure has been deployed yet.

LAVA, the protocol’s token, trades more than 90% below its 2024 peak and has a market cap of about $9 million, according to CoinGecko. Lava routes traffic for enterprise users including Fireblocks, NEAR, Arbitrum and Starknet.

The release announcing the partnership described a “regulatory sandbox” that would put every home, parcel and shared asset onchain. Lava described a “private, exploratory process between the parties” that’s fully aligned with existing legal and regulatory frameworks.” It named no Dominican regulator and said any future implementation would be coordinated with authorities later.

Lava Support

Under the MoU, Lava’s role is to support ecosystem outreach, coordinate applications from crypto-native teams and contribute to the sandbox’s design, the company said. BHL retains control over the project’s direction and assets. Lava’s decentralized RPC and API services would be used only if the teams eventually chosen to build the tokenization framework opt for them. The commercial terms are usage-based, with no fixed fee, equity stake or token grant from BHL, Lava said.

The release said for residents “the deed of ownership will also be a digital asset from day one.” Lava said no tokenization structure has been defined, and that any token would be designed to complement rather than replace existing property registries, likely through special-purpose vehicles representing economic interests.

BHL assembled the land over 20 years through more than 100 parcel purchases and holds it outright, Lava said. Financing is mixed: traditional real estate investors are in the capital stack, with a further portion expected from crypto-native funds raised through the sandbox.

Lava said the sandbox’s team-selection process is expected to begin shortly. Whether the project proceeds to tokenization will depend on the results.

Kalshi now requires users to reveal employers as it fights insider trading and market manipulation

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Kalshi now requires users to reveal employers as it fights insider trading and market manipulation

Kalshi said it will start requiring some users to disclose their employers as part of a broader push to crack down on insider trading and market manipulation on its prediction-market platform.

The federally regulated exchange said Tuesday the new policy will apply to markets it considers at higher risk for insider activity or abuse. Those traders may be screened before being allowed to place trades.

The company said the changes take effect immediately and follow recommendations from an independent Surveillance Audit Committee that reviewed Kalshi’s enforcement systems, monitoring tools, and trading controls.

“For markets with heightened insider or manipulation risk, we now collect employment information before traders can participate,” Kalshi said in a statement. The company said the process is designed to identify people who may have access to material nonpublic information tied to an event or outcome.

The platform’s new measures come as prediction markets face increasing scrutiny. Recently, a Yale and London Business School paper analyzing Polymarket trades from 2023 to 2025 found that only 3% of traders accounted for most price moves. The study highlighted the case of a U.S. Army Green Beret arrested in April for $400,000 bets on Polymarket on the raid in Venezuela to extract then-President Nicolas Maduro, in which he participated. A month later, a Google engineer was also arrested for alleged insider trading on Polymarket.

Prediction markets allow users to bet on the potential outcome of future events, including elections, economic data and corporate and political developments. As the industry grows, critics have raised concerns that traders with insider knowledge could exploit thinly traded or highly sensitive markets.

Kalshi said it blocked more than 100 potential insider trades in the first quarter using new screening tools. The company also said it opened more than 150 investigations, referred more than 20 cases to law enforcement, and issued five disciplinary actions. The company did not provide details about those cases, and the figures could not be independently verified.

The exchange also announced a new risk-scoring system that evaluates markets based on factors including insider-trading risk, market importance, regulatory concerns, and national-security implications. Markets viewed as carrying elevated manipulation risks could face tighter controls or be rejected from listing altogether.

Kalshi said it also added new whistleblower reporting tools that allow users to flag suspicious trading activity directly from individual markets.

Tim Meggs, CEO and co-founder of LO:TECH, a transparent market data infrastructure firm, told CoinDesk that prediction markets have grown so rapidly that questions about their integrity need to be addressed as they are no longer theoretical. “Kalshi’s move to require employment verification, risk-scored markets, and whistleblower tools highlights how the sector is starting to build the surveillance infrastructure to match its ambitions,” Meggs said. “That maturation matters as much as the volume numbers.”

CFTC Proposes Prediction Market Rules Favoring Sports Contracts

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CFTC Proposes Prediction Market Rules Favoring Sports Contracts

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed new rules for prediction markets, signaling that sports event contracts are generally not contrary to the public interest even though federal law classifies them as “gaming.”

Released on Wednesday, the proposal distinguishes sports event contracts from games of pure chance, saying markets based on final scores and win-loss records can aid price discovery. Contracts tied to player injuries, officiating decisions or other outcomes that could encourage manipulation, however, are unlikely to meet the public interest test.

The proposal also clarifies that election contracts are not considered “gaming” under the relevant federal laws. Reuters reported this could further ease regulatory uncertainty for platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which rose to prominence during the 2024 US presidential election as traders increasingly turned to prediction markets to gauge the race’s outcome.

The draft rules are open for public comment for 45 days and could help define the future regulatory framework for US prediction markets.

Gary Kalbaugh, a partner at Cahill Gordon & Reindel LLP in New York, said the proposal is principles-based rather than a blanket approval, noting that each contract would still be subject to a case-by-case public interest analysis.

“‘Gaming’ is defined more broadly than anticipated and sweeps in sports events,” Kalbaugh wrote on Wednesday. “Contracts settling on aggregate outcomes (final scores, win-loss, season stats) are presumptively permissible.”

Source: Gary Kalbaugh

Related: Anchorage backs Treasury’s GENIUS AML rules, seeks secondary-market sanctions clarity

Increased regulatory clarity comes as prediction markets see adoption surge

The proposed rules come as prediction markets — described as an “asset class” in the draft — continue to gain momentum, with Kalshi and Polymarket reaching multibillion-dollar valuations amid rising investor and institutional interest.

Both companies have expanded their ties to traditional financial markets. Kalshi recently partnered with Nasdaq to launch a new category of prediction markets that allows users to forecast the future valuations of private companies ahead of their initial public offerings.

Polymarket, meanwhile, has partnered with Dow Jones to integrate real-time prediction market data into its media brands, including The Wall Street Journal.

“The prediction markets continue to become more mainstream, with newly formed partnerships with news organizations and more firms moving quickly into this space,” said Melinda Roth, a professor of sports law and corporate finance at Georgetown University Law Center. “As these markets continue to grow, the unanswered question is if event contracts are financial instruments or are they simply gambling.”

Analysts at Bernstein say prediction markets are seeing growing institutional adoption as investors seek alternative macro-hedging tools through binary-outcome contracts.

Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi

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