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Botanix bet big on ‘Bitcoin DeFi.’ Its shutdown suggests users never cared

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Botanix bet big on ‘Bitcoin DeFi.’ Its shutdown suggests users never cared

Bitcoin layer-2 network Botanix is being wound down a year after its mainnet went live.

The project cited market conditions and broader indifference within the cryptocurrency industry towards establishing greater utility on the Bitcoin network, in a post on X on Tuesday.

“It did not work,” Botanix summed up. “At least not in this market and not in this timeline.”

The aim of Botanix was to bring Ethereum-equivalent functionality to the Bitcoin network, allowing applications and smart contracts to be effectively copied and pasted onto the world’s first blockchain. The project raised $14.4 million across two funding rounds in 2023 and 2024. Despite this, its total value locked (TVL) at closure was a mere $119,500, according to data from DeFiLlama.

Botanix was one of many layer-2s and protocols to emerge in recent years, aiming to expand Bitcoin’s utility and help it evolve beyond being just a store of value.

The idea was that holders of bitcoin don’t have to just let their asset sit idle and hope for price appreciation. They can also use decentralized finance to generate income on the side. This could involve staking tokens on other blockchain networks or using smart contract-enabled DeFi tools, such as lending or decentralized exchanges (DEXs).

Botanix post-mortem

However, it didn’t go as planned, at least not for Botanix.

The protocol highlighted that “making Bitcoin programmable, productive and integrated into real financial activity isn’t where real-world users sit right now.”

This post-mortem may raise questions about the broader viability of the Bitcoin development sector, which includes other layer-2s like Rootstock or rollups like Citrea, during an extended period of muted sentiment in the crypto market.

CoinDesk reached out to these two projects for comment, but none were received as of press time.

BTC has lost more than 50% of its value since hitting its all-time high of nearly $125,000 last October, which may leave investors wondering why they should be interested in developing bitcoin’s use when it’s not currently serving its more basic function of storing value very effectively.

“It’s possible that bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset is simply where it settles. If that’s true, there will never be a market for what we are building and no amount of time or capital would change that,” Botanix said.

A simpler route to combining the secure store of wealth offered by BTC with the programmability and utility of other blockchain networks may lie in synthetic or “wrapped” bitcoin tokens. These are tokens that represent BTC on a 1:1 basis that can be traded and staked on networks like Ethereum.

The most established of these is wBTC, which was introduced in 2019, but more recently, Coinbase and Circle have developed their own synthetic bitcoin tokens to appeal to institutional investors and traders.

“For lending, yield, leveraged exposure, wBTC on a mature general-purpose L2 is genuinely sufficient,” Botanix said.

“Users have voted with their behaviour, and the verdict is that the trust assumptions of a wrapped representation on Ethereum are acceptable to almost everyone who wants Bitcoin-denominated DeFi.”

These Four Bitcoin Charts Hint at BTC Price Dropping Below $50K

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These Four Bitcoin Charts Hint at BTC Price Dropping Below $50K

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls successfully defended the $60,000 psychological support during last week’s 13% correction.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

However, the rebound has not fully erased downside risks, with some traders warning that a deeper breakdown remains possible as the US–Iran tensions and fading rate-cut expectations weigh on risk appetite.

Several Bitcoin valuation and technical indicators now support that scenario, suggesting BTC could still revisit $50,000 or lower levels in the coming weeks.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin trades near its average production cost of $62,650, but risks dropping toward its lower electrical cost of $50,120.
  • Glassnode’s MVRV bands show BTC below its lower valuation zone, with the next deep-value magnet near $50,437.

Bitcoin breaks down below average production cost

One of the key warning signals comes from the Bitcoin production cost model, which compares BTC’s market price with the estimated average cost of mining one Bitcoin.

The model, shared by Capriole Investments Founder Charles Edwards, shows Bitcoin trading near its production cost of around $62,650. That means miners are, on average, close to breaking even at current prices.

BTC/USD weekly chart vs. production cost. Source: Capriole Investments

This level has historically acted as an important long-term value zone. During previous bear-market corrections, Bitcoin often found strong demand when the price fell into the band between the production cost and the lower electrical cost estimate.

That lower boundary now sits near $50,120, according to the chart.

In other words, BTC is already testing the upper end of a major miner-cost support zone. If sellers push the price decisively below the current production-cost area, the next major valuation floor could sit near the electrical-cost level around $50,000.

BTC realized price indicator reveals $37,500 bottom

Bitcoin’s realized price, the average cost basis of all BTC holders, is currently near $53,600, according to the chart shared by analyst Follis.

Historically, Bitcoin has not formed a major cycle bottom without first trading below the realized price. BTC fell about 58% below realized price in 2011, 49% in 2015, 47% in 2018, and 34% in 2022.

Bitcoin realized price vs. spot price. Source: TradingView/Follis

The drawdowns have become shallower over time, but even a smaller 20%–30% drop below today’s realized price would imply a bottom zone between roughly $37,500 and $42,800.

So far, Bitcoin has spent zero days below realized price in this cycle, compared with 179 days in 2022, 140 days in 2018, 303 days in 2015, and 122 days in 2011.

Related: BTC price bottom not due until Q4? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

That keeps the possibility of a bottom in Q4 2026 in play. A decisive break below $60,000 could send BTC toward realized price near $53,600 first, before opening the door to a deeper capitulation zone below $50,000.

Bitcoin MVRV bands suggest price drop $50,000 is plausible

Bitcoin’s MVRV pricing bands also point to a possible deeper correction toward $50,000.

The model compares BTC’s market price with valuation zones based on how expensive or cheap Bitcoin appears versus its long-term average. Historically, these bands have acted as price magnets during major cycle moves.

Bitcoin MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands. Source: Glassnode

In the 2021 bull market, Bitcoin repeatedly topped near the upper valuation bands. During the 2022 bear market, the price eventually fell through the average band and gravitated toward the lower bands before forming a bottom.

A similar pattern appeared again during the 2024 correction, when BTC cooled off toward lower valuation zones before recovering.

Now, Bitcoin is trading near $63,000, already below the model’s lower valuation band around $72,035. The next major magnet sits near the deep-value band around $50,000.

That level also sits close to Bitcoin’s realized price near $53,600, making the $50,000–$53,600 area a key on-chain support cluster.

A decisive break below $60,000 would therefore strengthen the case for BTC to revisit this deep-value zone before attempting a durable bottom.

Bitcoin bear flag breakdown keeps $50,000 in play

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a possible bear flag breakdown, with BTC slipping from its rising consolidation range after failing below the 50-week SMA near $91,700.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

The price is now testing the 200-week SMA near $62,000, a key long-term support. A decisive weekly close below it would confirm the bearish setup and open the door to the measured downside target under $50,000.

Weekly relative strength index (RSI) readings near the oversold threshold of 30 also show weak momentum, supporting the view that sellers remain in control unless BTC quickly reclaims the flag support.

EU Seeks Transaction Ban on 11 Crypto Platforms in Russia Sanctions Push

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EU Seeks Transaction Ban on 11 Crypto Platforms in Russia Sanctions Push

The European Union proposed banning transactions on 11 crypto platforms as part of its 21st sanctions package against Russia.

Kaja Kallas, vice president of the European Commission and the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, outlined measures targeting banks, weapons manufacturers, oil traders, refineries and other entities outside the bloc.

“We will also tighten our ban for crypto-asset services to certain third countries, add new designations, and ban transactions on 11 crypto platforms,” Kallas said in a post on X.

The proposal would widen the EU’s sanctions campaign beyond Russian banks and energy revenues to crypto firms accused of helping Moscow circumvent restrictions imposed over its war in Ukraine.

Source: Kaja Kallas

The Commission did not identify the 11 crypto platforms in its public statements. Cointelegraph sought clarification on which platforms would be affected, but the Commission did not provide additional details before publication.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the package includes bans on 31 additional Russian banks and 20 entities in third countries, including banks, crypto platforms and oil traders.

She said the targets had served sanctioned Russian individuals and entities or helped circumvent EU measures.

EU proposal follows UK sanctions against HTX

The EU proposal follows the United Kingdom’s May 26 sanctions against Huobi Global S.A., the Panamanian company behind HTX, over alleged support for Russia-linked financial networks.

UK authorities said there were reasonable grounds to suspect HTX had supported the Russian government through financial services and funds facilitated by A7 Limited Liability Company and Garantex, both sanctioned entities.

Related: MiCA architect says EU should prioritize tokenization over DeFi rules

HTX has denied the allegations, saying the sanctioned entity is separate from the online exchange. A Global Ledger report later said HTX processed about $21.06 billion in high-risk crypto flows between 2021 and May 2026. Of that total, at least $7.64 billion was linked to Russian high-risk entities and darknet markets, including Garantex, its successor Grinex, A7A5 and Hydra.

The UK sanctions drew criticism from blockchain researchers, who warned that broad exchange-level tainting could freeze legitimate users and make crypto compliance tools less effective at tracing illicit funds.

Magazine: Vietnam preps crypto pilot, HK pushes tokenization: Asia Express

Citrini Research Calls Hyperliquid a Compelling Investment, Citing Nearly Half of All Crypto Token Buybacks

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Citrini Research Calls Hyperliquid a Compelling Investment, Citing Nearly Half of All Crypto Token Buybacks

Citrini Research, known for moving AI equities with its reports, published an analysis calling Hyperliquid compelling, citing the protocol’s Assistance Fund directing more than 90% of fees to HYPE buybacks and its command of close to half of all crypto token buyback activity this year.

Citrini Research, the subscription analytics firm whose reports have previously triggered sharp moves in AI-linked equities, published an analysis Monday calling Hyperliquid a compelling investment thesis. The firm argues the decentralized exchange accounts for nearly half of all token buyback activity across the crypto market.

The report, published via Citrini’s Substack on Monday, centers on the protocol’s Assistance Fund: more than 90% of fees generated by Hyperliquid route directly into the fund, which uses those proceeds to repurchase HYPE tokens on the open market.

“Unlike the memetic majority of crypto (bitcoin included), HYPE generates legitimate cash flow,” Citrini wrote.

The Buyback Case

The scale sets Hyperliquid apart from most protocols, Citrini argued. The firm estimated that Hyperliquid’s repurchases represented close to half of all token buybacks recorded across the digital asset industry this year. It framed the mechanism as structural rather than a promotional campaign.

Hyperliquid generated $28.6 million in fees over the trailing seven days, per DefiLlama, with an annualized run rate of roughly $1.49 billion at the current pace. The protocol has accumulated $1.34 billion in all-time fees since launch.

“The Hyperliquid runway is wide,” Citrini wrote. “We think there is still significant market share to be captured.”

Beyond protocol revenue, Citrini cited the recently launched Hyperliquid ETFs from Bitwise and 21Shares as a further demand signal. The two products generated nearly $600 million in trading volume and attracted more than $136 million in net inflows during their first three weeks of trading, per Citrini.

Why Citrini’s Read Carries Weight

Citrini Research publishes thematic equity and macro analysis via Substack. The firm drew wider market attention when prior reports on AI-infrastructure names contributed to sharp corrections in several AI-linked equities, establishing a track record for moving institutional positioning.

The firm’s shift into crypto with a named, affirmative thesis on a specific token is a departure from its usual equity focus. The analysis frames HYPE as a cash-flow asset rather than a speculative trade, language more typical of institutional equity research than crypto commentary.

All Eyes on Hyperliquid

The Citrini report arrives inside a broader stretch of institutional attention for Hyperliquid. Intercontinental Exchange chief Jeffrey Sprecher called the protocol “bigger than Nasdaq” earlier this year, drawing TradFi notice to its market-structure ambitions.

The report also follows a meaningful structural development in the buyback mechanism itself. On June 8, Coinbase activated its role as official USDC treasury deployer on Hyperliquid, routing most of the yield generated from the protocol’s USDC reserves back into the ecosystem. Coinbase had previously estimated the arrangement could increase Hyperliquid’s annual revenue by as much as $200 million. Any expansion in treasury income flows directly into the Assistance Fund’s buyback capacity.

Separately, Hyperliquid perps hold $8.92 billion in open interest, the largest share among decentralized derivatives venues, per DefiLlama, supporting Citrini’s claim about market share still available for capture.

Citrini noted that despite HYPE recently overtaking Solana on a per-token price basis, Solana’s market capitalization remains more than twice the size of HYPE’s, a gap it framed as room for continued gain.

Where HYPE Stands

HYPE was trading around $59 Monday, down roughly 8% over the prior 24 hours, per CoinGecko. The token reached an all-time high of $75.48 on June 2 and sits roughly 22% below that peak.

The circulating market cap stands at $13.1 billion, per CoinGecko.

The closest thing to how SpaceX might trade is on a crypto exchange and it’s down 27%

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The closest thing to how SpaceX might trade is on a crypto exchange and it’s down 27%

Elon Musk’s SpaceX IPO, which values the company at around $1.8 trillion, is priced at $135 per share, and investors won’t know how it will trade until the shares go live on the traditional market.

However, on the crypto platform Hyperliquid, the “synthetic” shares of SpaceX are already trading and might be the closest thing to an indication of how the shares might trade when they go live this week.

And the synthetic pre-IPO product has already lost its premium, despite the report that the largest-ever IPO was four times oversubscribed.

A widely-tracked 5x-leverage “perpetual” futures contract on Hyperliquid has declined for three consecutive weeks. The product, tickered SPCX, traded near $157 on Wednesday, down about 27% from its mid-May launch price of around $216, after briefly trading as high as $230.

That does not mean traders are betting against SpaceX, as SPCX still trades above the $135 IPO price. But the implied first-day premium has been cut hard. In May, the contract priced SpaceX roughly 60% above the offer, and it stood closer to 16% as of Wednesday.

The company set the offer price at $135 per share, with no price range for investors to push it higher or lower during the bookbuild. In most IPOs, bankers collect orders and move the price based on demand. But SpaceX has taken a fixed-price route where investors either take the price or do not.

That leaves the SPCX perp as one of the few places where a SpaceX-linked price is actually moving before the stock opens.

The contract does not give holders shares, allocation rights or any claim on SpaceX. It is a cash-settled derivative that allows traders to bet on where the company’s equity will trade. Unlike an IPO indication of interest, traders in the perp have money at risk and can lose it before the first share changes hands.

The official book still looks huge. Reuters reported that SpaceX has drawn more than $250 billion in investor interest for a $75 billion raise, making the deal several times oversubscribed. Large investors often ask for more stock than they expect to receive, especially in hot deals.

SPCX’s prices suggest traders still expect a premium to the $135 offer.

That may partly reflect broader market pressure. Crypto has weakened into the IPO, and bitcoin remains well below its January high. Some investors may also be raising cash to fund SpaceX allocations, adding pressure to the same risk market where SPCX trades.

Zcash (ZEC), Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens lead losses as traders bet against a bitcoin (BTC) price bounce

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Zcash (ZEC), Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens lead losses as traders bet against a bitcoin (BTC) price bounce

The crypto market remains under pressure ahead of the pivotal U.S. inflation data, which is expected to show the cost of living rose to a three-year high of over 4% in May.

Tokens such as privacy-focused zcash (ZEC) and decentralized exchange Hyperliquid’s HYPE have each dropped over 10% in 24 hours, a signal of risk aversion in the broader market. ADA, ONDO, BCH are other losers, dropping more than 4%. The CoinDesk 20 Index fell 3% in the period.

Bitcoin BTC$61,412.97 has retraced to under $61,500, nearly reversing the Sunday bounce that saw prices rise above $64,000 on some exchanges. More importantly, the cryptocurrency is trading below its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), a technical line widely watched by traders.

“The history of the 200-week moving average over the last 11 years (prior to this, the market had not dipped below it) shows that the average time spent near it is almost 11 months, suggesting a very long bear market,” Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at the FxPro, said in an email.

Derivatives positioning

  • Crypto futures volume over the past 24 hours rose 1.2% to $193 billion while open interest fell 1.5% to $102.27 billion. Liquidations, in contrast, jumped 38% to $418 million, with longs accounting for more than $300 million of the total as bitcoin slid back toward $61,000 yesterday.
  • Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) nudged higher to 728,000 BTC from 712,000 BTC even as the cryptocurrency’s price fell. Rising OI into a price decline points to fresh short positioning, a sign traders are positioning for a further drop.
  • That conclusion is reinforced by negative perpetual funding rates and a negative OI-adjusted 24-hour cumulative volume delta, the latter indicating that sellers are hitting bids at market rather than placing passive limit orders.
  • Solana futures OI rose to 69.58 million tokens, up nearly 2% on the day, closing in on the record June 5 peak of 71.57 million. Funding rates and CVD are negative, mirroring bitcoin’s bearish setup .
  • The bearish tilt extends across the board. Funding rates and CVD are negative for most major coins, including ether (ETH) and XRP. The lone exception is XMR, whose 24-hour CVD is narrowly positive.
  • Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index is 51.21%, up from 45.8% on Monday, reflecting renewed uncertainty ahead of the U.S. CPI release later today. ETH’s implied volatility index has also ticked higher.
  • On Deribit, short-term puts on both BTC and ETH continue to command a notable premium over calls, a sign that downside hedging demand remains elevated. One-week implied volatility is trading cheap relative to one-week realized volatility, a setup that favors options buyers.
  • In block flows, a long butterfly was structured in the July 31 expiry, involving long positions in calls at the $70,000 and $80,000 strike prices and short 2x in the $75,000 call. The trade profits if BTC consolidates around $75,000 through the end of July, implying the desk behind the position sees limited directional conviction from here.

Token talk

  • Uniswap V4’s total value locked (TVL), the deposits sitting inside a protocol, appeared to explode more than 350% in a day, with DefiLlama showing roughly $2 billion of apparent inflows concentrated on BNB Chain. The jump was large enough to look like a major liquidity migration into the exchange.
  • That wasn’t the case, however. The figure was not a wave of capital flowing into the protocol. CoinDesk traced the spike to the Humanity Protocol’s H token, which was hacked and minted in unlimited supply a day earlier. The worthless new tokens sat in a BNB Chain pool and inflated the dashboard’s dollar reading rather than representing real deposits. DefiLlama’s founder was contacted for confirmation.
  • Santiment, a behavioral analytics platform, said the broader market selloff has reached a historic buy zone.
  • The 30-day market value to realized value (MVRV), a gauge of the average profit or loss for traders who bought a token over the past month, shows the typical recent buyer underwater on bitcoin by 10%, ether by 12%, chainlink by 9%, XRP by 8%, and cardano by about 18%. The firm tags the first four “fair buy” and cardano “strong buy.”
  • MORPHO$1.9021 jumped 12% in 24 hours after the onchain lending protocol raised $175 million, one of the largest funding rounds in DeFi history, co-led by Paradigm, a16z crypto and Ribbit Capital with backers including Apollo and VanEck.
  • The deal, structured as a token purchase, valued the protocol at up to $2 billion. The token later gave back some of the pop.

XRP market shows signs of capitulation as holders sell at loss

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XRP market shows signs of capitulation as holders sell at loss

XRP holders are increasingly selling at a loss in a textbook sign of market capitulation.

The 90-day moving average of XRP’s realized profit-to-loss ratio has plunged to 0.38, according to data tracked by Glassnode.

That means for every $1 of losses investors are realizing right now, they are taking in just 38 cents in profit. Essentially, most of the coins trading on the blockchain are underwater.

The situation marks a reversal from the 2025 peak, when the ratio hit 50. At that time, profit-takers were overwhelming loss-sellers by a staggering 50-to-1.

XRP’s realized profit-to-loss ratio. (Glassnode)

A ratio this far below 1 is widely viewed as a hallmark of capitulation, a market phase where exhausted holders finally throw in the towel and sell, often after bearing the prolonged pain of holding coins in loss. It reflects intense fear or forced selling in the market.

While capitulation doesn’t always mark the exact bottom, it frequently appears near exhaustion points in downtrends. For XRP traders, this could mean that the bear market is in its final stages.

The payments-focused cryptocurrency traded at around $1.11 at press time, down nearly 40% for the year, according to CoinDesk data. Prices peaked above $3.60 last July.

Japan’s three largest banks eye joint stablecoin issue by March 2027

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Japan’s three largest banks eye joint stablecoin issue by March 2027

Three of Japan’s largest banks said they will jointly issue a stablecoin this financial year, which ends in March.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), Sumitomo ⁠Mitsui Financial Group (SMBC) and Mizuho Financial Group will establish a council to explore operational frameworks and prepare for the issuance of stablecoins, according to a statement on MUFG’s website.

The three banks will act as “joint settlors and a trust bank or similar institution will act as trustee,” the statement said.

Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) signaled support for the development of a stablecoin by the three banks last November. More recently, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) said the state should promote the usage of yen-based stablecoins.

Stablecoins are digital tokens pegged to the value of a traditional financial asset, usually a fiat currency. The market is overwhelmingly dominated by U.S. dollar tokens, with Tether’s USDT and Circle Internet’s (CRCL) USDC alone accounting for a combined 84% market share.

Tokens pegged to the yen represent a negligible share of the market, accounting for less than $50 million in the $311 billion sector. The most prominent is JPYC with a market cap of around $18 million, issued by a Tokyo-based fintech of the same name.

Hyperliquid, Paradigm Urge FinCEN Revise GENIUS Rule

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Hyperliquid, Paradigm Urge FinCEN Revise GENIUS Rule

The lobbying arm of crypto futures exchange Hyperliquid and venture capital firm Paradigm has urged the US Treasury to revise a proposed anti-money laundering and sanctions rule for stablecoin issuers.

The Hyperliquid Policy Center and Paradigm said in a letter on Tuesday that some secondary market obligations should be clarified or narrowed “to avoid unintended consequences for permissionless blockchain infrastructure and the DeFi ecosystem.”

The pair said they endorse the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network’s (FinCEN) approach of putting compliance obligations on the “primary market,” such as issuers who have customer information, and taking a “limited approach” to the secondary market, where issuers only see wallets and transactions.

“The same principle should guide the agencies’ implementation of AML and sanctions requirements for stablecoins deployed to permissionless environments,” they argued.

The letter was in response to a rule the Treasury proposed in April to implement GENIUS Act provisions relating to stablecoin issuers, requiring stablecoin issuers to have the capability to block, freeze or reject transactions that violate US law or sanctions on both the primary and secondary markets.

Source: Stefan Schropp

Hyperliquid and Paradigm said the proposal sweeps secondary market activity into an issuer’s compliance perimeter that they “cannot meaningfully police.”

They argued it also treats smart contract interactions as an activity that carries sanctions liability “regardless of whether the issuer has any relationship with, or visibility into, the transacting parties.”

The pair said an issuer who is facing the obligations proposed would be incentivized to only deploy into a permissioned environment, which they argued would see US-regulated stablecoins pulled out of decentralized finance to create “a void filled by unregulated, offshore, non-dollar alternatives.”

Related: Solana Institute CEO says CLARITY Act must shield open-source developers

US President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law last year, which outlined how stablecoins and their issuers are to be regulated. Federal agencies are currently looking at how to implement the law, which is set to go into effect in January 2027 at the latest.

The Senate is currently debating a crypto bill that could include further rules for stablecoin issuers and remove liability for developers of crypto platforms regarding money laundering and sanctions compliance.

Provisions for the legislation, dubbed the CLARITY Act, are still under discussion, and some lawmakers are pushing for a full Senate vote on the bill before the November elections.

Magazine: The legal battle over who can claim DeFi’s stolen millions

Polymarket World Cup Winner Markets Cross $1.8B in Volume as France-Spain Group Stage Opens

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Polymarket World Cup Winner Markets Cross $1.8B in Volume as France-Spain Group Stage Opens

Polymarket’s 2026 FIFA World Cup prediction markets have accumulated more than $1.8 billion in cumulative trading volume as the tournament’s group stage gets underway, with France and Spain trading as the narrowest co-favorites.

Polymarket’s 2026 FIFA World Cup prediction markets have accumulated more than $1.8 billion in cumulative trading volume as the tournament’s group stage gets underway, with France and Spain priced as the narrowest co-favorites ahead of their high-profile group stage matchup.

More than $66 million changed hands in the trailing 24 hours. Pooled liquidity across the event stands at $352.7 million.

France leads in implied tournament probability at 16.2%, narrowly ahead of Spain at 16.0%. Portugal sits third at 11.3% and England fourth at 10.9%. Argentina, the defending champion, is priced at 8.8% and Brazil at 8.3%. The individual France winner market has attracted $40.9 million in volume and the Spain market $33.6 million, the two highest volumes of any single-nation market on the platform.

The France-Spain Dynamic

The two nations are drawn into the same group and are scheduled to face each other during the group stage, giving their matchup outsized significance for market participants. France and Spain together account for a combined implied probability of roughly 32%, making their group stage meeting the closest the current market structure has to a match between the two most likely champions.

Polymarket’s own event description notes that squad adjustments or early-match results could quickly shift implied probabilities among the leading contenders, which effectively means the France-Spain group game functions as an early price-discovery moment for the broader tournament market.

The $40.9 million in France winner market volume and the $33.6 million in Spain winner market volume are both higher than any other single-nation market. By contrast, markets for the USA, the host nation, have generated $50.9 million in cumulative volume, reflecting heavier retail participation despite USA’s lower implied championship probability of roughly 3%.

Group Stage Markets

Beyond the flagship winner event, Polymarket has twelve group winner markets, one per World Cup group. Combined volume across those twelve events stands at approximately $3.4 million. The World Cup Group B winner market, which covers Spain’s group, has generated $297,744 in volume, per Polymarket data.

The platform’s “Which continent will win the World Cup” event has drawn $3.3 million in volume, with Europe implied as the heavy favorite given the concentration of top-ranked nations.

Prediction Markets Rise

Prediction markets have grown substantially as a venue for sports betting since Polymarket’s launch in 2020. The $1.8 billion in World Cup winner market volume is among the largest the platform has reported for a single sporting event.

The broader prediction market sector attracted significant regulatory and commercial attention in the 12 months preceding the tournament. Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated event contract operator, launched sports markets for US audiences in 2024, extending prediction market access to a regulated segment that was previously limited to political and economic contracts. Both platforms now list World Cup outcome markets.

The $342 million traded in the past week and $881 million in the past month show that volume has accelerated as the tournament draws near.

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