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ETFs Reshaped Crypto Liquidity Flows in 2025

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New capital entered crypto in 2025, but it largely stayed locked in major assets like bitcoin and ether. A Wintermute report shows how ETFs, options markets, and shifting retail behavior reshaped market structure. Crypto Liquidity Rose in 2025 but Stayed Concentrated in Major Assets Crypto markets attracted fresh liquidity in 2025, but that capital did […]

What It Means for DeFi

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What are decentralized stablecoins?

A decentralized stablecoin aims to maintain a stable value while being issued and managed onchain, without relying on a single company to mint or redeem dollars.

Stablecoins are already central to decentralized finance (DeFi). Because fiat money is not native to blockchains, stablecoins perform the day-to-day role of moving value between protocols and acting as collateral.

Regulators have made a similar point. Stablecoins are considered essential to DeFi’s operations, serving as instruments for transfers, deposits and collateral.

That dependence is why Vitalik Buterin’s latest warning is of particular interest. In a January 11, 2026, post, he argued that crypto still needs better decentralized stablecoins, highlighting three unresolved issues: the need for a benchmark beyond the USD price, oracles that cannot be captured by deep pockets and staking yields that compete with stablecoin designs.

Did you know? As of early 2026, stablecoin supply sits around the $300-billion range, depending on the tracker and the day, and most of that liquidity remains centralized.

Buterin’s thesis

In his Jan. 11, 2026, post on X, Vitalik Buterin argued that DeFi still lacks stable money that is meaningfully independent of single issuers and single reference points.

He pointed to three unresolved design constraints, which the following sections will examine.

Constraint #1: Stop treating “$1” as the only definition of stability

Buterin’s first point concerns the benchmark itself. In his Jan. 11, 2026, post, he argued that tracking the US dollar is acceptable in the short term, but that a serious resilience goal should include independence from a single price reference over a multi-decade horizon.

That is a critique of how DeFi works today. Even the best-known decentralized designs typically aim for a USD soft peg. Dai’s (DAI) target price, for example, is explicitly set to 1 USD in Maker’s own documentation.

What replaces the dollar is not settled, and Buterin did not present a finished blueprint. However, he floated the idea of using broader price indexes or purchasing-power measures rather than a pure USD peg.

Conceptually, that could resemble Consumer Price Index (CPI)-style basket thinking, where the cost of a representative set of everyday goods and services changes over time, or composite currency baskets such as the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Special Drawing Rights, which derive value from a weighted mix of major fiat currencies. Implementing anything like this onchain immediately raises measurement and governance questions, which is exactly where the oracle problem appears next.

Did you know? A CPI basket measures inflation by tracking the prices of a fixed set of everyday goods and services, while the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights is a synthetic reserve asset based on a basket of major currencies, designed to reduce dependence on any single national currency.

Constraint #2: Oracles that can’t be captured

Buterin’s second constraint suggests that if a stablecoin depends on external data, the system is only as strong as its oracle design. He argues that the goal should be a decentralized oracle that is not easily capturable by a large pool of capital.

In other words, the cost of distorting inputs such as prices, indexes and collateral valuations should not be low enough for a well-capitalized attacker to profit by pushing the system into bad mints, bad liquidations or insolvency.

This is a well-known DeFi risk class. When stablecoins are widely used as collateral and settlement assets, a failure can spill across protocols through liquidations and forced selling.

MakerDAO’s oracle documentation illustrates the complexity involved even in mature systems. It relies on a median of whitelisted data feeds and governance-controlled permissioning, with parameters such as minimum quorum requirements for updates.

Ultimately, decentralization in stablecoins often hinges on oracle governance, ongoing maintenance and clearly defined failure-handling mechanisms.

Did you know? A minimum quorum is the minimum number of participants or data sources that must be present or agree before a decision or update is considered valid. It is used in governance and oracle systems to prevent changes from being made by too few actors or based on unreliable data.

Constraint #3: Staking yield competes with stable collateral

Buterin’s third point is that Ethereum’s staking yield is an underappreciated source of tension for decentralized stablecoins.

He frames staking returns as competition that can distort stablecoin design. If Ether (ETH) staking becomes the baseline, stablecoin systems either have to offer comparable returns, often through incentives that may not survive stress, or accept that demand can migrate elsewhere when yields appear structurally more attractive.

He then outlines several possible directions as thought experiments rather than a single prescription. These include compressing staking yield to roughly 0.2%, described as a hobbyist level; creating a new staking category with yields closer to regular staking but without typical slashing risk; or designing mechanisms that explicitly reconcile slashable staking with collateral use.

Overall, stablecoin resilience needs to be tested against changing incentives and sudden market declines.

What this means for protocol design

For readers assessing decentralized stablecoin designs, or a DeFi protocol that depends on one, the questions below map directly to the failure modes Buterin appears to be highlighting.

  • What is it stable to, exactly? A strict $1 peg is simple, but it also imports USD reference risk over long horizons. If the project claims an alternative benchmark, such as a basket, index or purchasing power, a key consideration is who defines the benchmark and how it is updated.

  • Run dynamics: What happens during a fast sell-off? Does the design rely on continuous confidence, or is there a clear, mechanistic path to restore backing without reflexive death spirals? This has been observed as a recurring class of failure in decentralized stablecoins under stress.

  • Oracle integrity: What data must be trusted, and what is the explicit policy if feeds fail, disagree or are manipulated? Oracle manipulation has triggered liquidations and protocol losses in the past, and Bank for International Settlements research frames oracles as a core DeFi risk surface.

  • Collateral and liquidation realism: Is there credible onchain liquidity for liquidations during periods of volatility, or does the model assume normal market conditions?

  • Incentives versus resilience: If stability depends on yields or subsidies, what happens when competing base yields, such as staking, rise or when incentives end?

Wrapping up DeFi’s stable money engineering problem

Buterin’s core message is a reminder that decentralized stability has three unresolved dependencies: what stability is measured against, how the data enforcing it is sourced and secured, and how incentives behave as yields and market regimes shift.

You can build useful markets on USD-pegged tokens, but reliance on a single unit of account and shared oracle infrastructure concentrates risk. Under stress, oracle manipulation can trigger or propagate shocks across protocols.

As a result, the near-term trajectory is likely to involve incremental hardening. That means clearer benchmarks, explicit oracle failure modes and designs that prioritize survivability over steady-state incentives.

Bitcoin Nears $100,000 as Tariff Limbo and Fed-Trump Clash Ignite ‘Perfect Storm’

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Bitcoin surged past $97,000 on Jan. 14, driven by the U.S. Supreme Court’s deferment of a crucial tariff ruling, record ETF inflows, and mounting macroeconomic friction. Bitcoin Nears $100,000 as Supreme Court Tariff Delay Ignites Rally Bitcoin surged past $97,000 on Jan. 14, catalyzed by a volatile mix of judicial delays and record-breaking institutional investment. […]

Meta Launches Meta Compute to Build out AI Architecture

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Meta’s push to build out capacity for its AI business has taken a step forward with the creation of a new initiative, Meta Compute.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced the “top-level” unit in a Facebook post Monday, and said he will assume responsibility for the planning and operation of the company’s fleet of data centers.

“Meta is planning to build tens of gigawatts this decade, and hundreds of gigawatts or more over time,” Zuckerberg said in the post. “How we engineer, invest, and partner to build this infrastructure will become a strategic advantage.”

Meta posted notice of its intention to make a major move in this area during its second quarter earnings call last year, when it unveiled plans for massive expenditure in the pursuit of what Zuckerberg calls “personal superintelligence,” or the idea that AI can surpass human performance in most cognitive tasks. The company committed a mammoth $72 billion to AI infrastructure in its 2025 fiscal year alone.

Zuckerberg tapped Santosh Janardhan, head of global infrastructure and co-head of engineering, to work in tandem with Daniel Gross, former CEO of Safe Superintelligence and hired by Meta last summer. Both bring a level of seniority that underscores the importance of the project for the company.

Related:OpenAI, SoftBank Invest $1B in SB Energy as AI Buildout Continues

Janardhan will focus on Meta’s “technical architecture, software stack, silicon program, developer productivity, and building and operating our global data center fleet and network,” according to Zuckerberg’s post. Gross’ remit will be “long-term capacity strategy, supplier partnerships, industry analysis, planning, and business modeling,” Zuckerberg added.

They will be joined by a former advisor to President Donald Trump, Dina Powell McCormick, who this week joined Meta as president and vice chair and will be tasked with “partnering with governments and sovereigns.” This is likely to be a key role in terms of raising investment and securing approvals, particularly given the vast energy consumption the initiative will require.

Meta currently has a fleet of 30 data centers globally, most of them in the U.S., and last week confirmed a deal with three nuclear energy firms — Vistra, TerraPower and Oklo — to provide power for some of its facilities, highlighting the growing demand for energy.

Although the company’s Llama 4 AI models have met with a generally muted response so far, the belief is that Meta Compute can help the company carve out an advantage over its peers. As CFO Susan Li pledged last year, “We … expect that developing leading AI infrastructure will be a core advantage in developing the best AI models and product experiences, so we expect to ramp our investments significantly in 2026 to support that work.”

Related:Meta Signs Deals With Nuclear Energy Companies

Bitcoin Hits 2026 High At $97K: What’s Next?

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) start-of-year recovery continued into the second week of January as the cryptocurrency made fresh 2026 highs above $96,000. The rally confirmed a new higher high structure, and traders are hopeful that a rally above $100,000 is the next target.

Bitcoin one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin secured a daily close above $95,000, confirming a higher high and weakening near-term resistance.

  • Binance net taker volume briefly exceeded $500 million, coinciding with rising open interest and the lowest hourly funding rate since October 2025.

  • With limited resistance above $95,000, a technical rally to $103,500 is possible. 

Key Bitcoin metrics indicate a rally is here to stay

Onchain data shows Bitcoin’s rally gaining strength. The Coinbase Premium Index has gradually reset after sustained selling between Jan. 6 and Jan. 11. While the index remains net-negative, the pace of selling pressure has clearly slowed, suggesting reduced panic from US-based investors.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Futures, Market Analysis
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant

Additionally, the seven-day average Bitcoin inflow to Coinbase Advanced is running at roughly 2.5 times its baseline. Similar inflow spikes in the past have preceded price appreciation, tied to spot accumulation, OTC settlement, or ETF positioning rather than outright selling.

At the same time, stablecoin inflows remain muted. This points to a waiting phase from investors, and in past cycles, stablecoin liquidity has frequently lagged BTC inflows, but it can turn into a conditional bullish signal if follow-through demand emerges.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Futures, Market Analysis
Bitcoin price and open interest percentage change. Source: Amr Taha/CryptoQuant

Derivatives data reinforces this view. Crypto analyst Amr Taha noted a sharp expansion in Binance net taker volume, with a single hourly candle exceeding $500 million in aggressive market buying.

Combined with rising open interest, this behavior has historically aligned with trend continuation rather than reversals. Similar conditions earlier this month preceded a rapid move toward $96,000.

Bitcoin’s hourly funding rate also hit its lowest level since October 17, 2025, reflecting crowded short exposure and cautious use of leverage. As funding normalized, the price rallied sharply, suggesting shorts were forced to unwind into strength.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Futures, Market Analysis
Bitcoin funding rate across all exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Spot flows drive Bitcoin surge as analysts tip $100K run next

Key price levels to watch for BTC

In the short-term, traders will continue to watch $100,000. However, from a technical standpoint, the next major supply zone sits higher between $103,300 and $107,500. Between $95,000 and $103,300, overhead resistance is notably thin, allowing room for price expansion if the momentum persists.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Futures, Market Analysis
Bitcoin four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The broader market liquidity remains light across both spot and futures markets, leaving BTC vulnerable to sharp swings. The recent rally above $95,300 liquidated $270 millions in short positions, shifting the next meaningful liquidity cluster to the long side.

From a structural perspective, the $92,500 to $90,000 region also stands out on the lower end. A daily order block formed there following the rally, marking a potential zone where Bitcoin could establish its next higher low. Holding that area would strengthen the case for a sustained push above $100,000 before month-end.

Related: Bitcoin cools near $96.5K as markets shrug off US tariff uncertainty