In this episode of The Defiant Podcast, Chris Storaker sits down with Alex Garn, Chief Product Officer at Borderless, to unpack how stablecoins are quietly transforming cross-border payments — and what it actually takes to move money at scale across jurisdictions.
Toncoin drops, falls through key support levels in technical breakdown
The decline was accompanied by a spike in volume, suggesting large-holder or institutional activity, and analysts see a risk of continued pressure.
Tennessee Orders Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com to Halt Sports Betting
Tennessee’s sports betting regulator has ordered prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com to halt the offering of sports event contracts to residents of the state.
In cease-and-desist letters dated Friday, the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (SWC) accused all three platforms of illegally offering sports wagering products without holding a license issued under the Tennessee Sports Gaming Act, according to copies of the letters published on X by sports betting attorney Daniel Wallach.
The SWC said the sports event contracts listed on Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com’s North American Derivatives Exchange allow users to wager money on the outcome of sporting events, a practice Tennessee law reserves exclusively for licensed sportsbooks. The regulator argued that packaging the products as “event contracts” does not exempt them from state gambling statutes.
The regulator also pointed to consumer protection requirements imposed on licensed operators, including age restrictions, responsible gaming tools and anti-money laundering controls, which it says are absent from the platforms’ offerings.
Related: How prediction markets raise insider trading and credit risks
Tennessee orders prediction markets to issue refunds
The SWC ordered the companies to immediately stop offering sports-related contracts to Tennessee residents, void all existing contracts entered into by users in the state and refund all funds on deposit by Jan. 31, 2026.
Failure to comply could result in fines of up to $25,000 per offense, according to the letters. The regulator also warned that continued noncompliance could lead to injunctive relief and referrals to law enforcement for further investigation into illegal gambling operations.
While Kalshi and Polymarket are registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the SWC maintained that federal registration does not override Tennessee’s authority to regulate sports wagering within its borders.
Cointelegraph reached out to Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com for comment but had not received a response by publication.
Related: CFTC issues no-action letter to Bitnomial, clearing way for event contracts
Judge temporarily blocks Connecticut from enforcing order against Kalshi
Last month, a US federal judge temporarily barred Connecticut regulators from enforcing a cease-and-desist order against Kalshi, granting the company a short-term reprieve as the legal dispute moves forward. The order follows action by the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection, which accused Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com of offering unlicensed sports wagering through online event contracts.
Kalshi challenged the state’s move in court, arguing that its event contracts fall under federal commodities law and are regulated exclusively by the CFTC. Judge Vernon Oliver ruled that Connecticut must pause enforcement while the court considers Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction, setting deadlines for filings in January and scheduling oral arguments for mid-February.
The case adds to a growing legal fight between Kalshi and state regulators nationwide, as several states have questioned whether prediction market contracts tied to sports constitute illegal gambling. Kalshi has launched lawsuits against regulators in New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Nevada, Maryland and Ohio.
Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026
Onchain Analyst Willy Woo Defends Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle, Dismissing ‘Death of the Pattern’ Narratives
Willy Woo rejects claims that Bitcoin’s four‑year cycle has ended, arguing that price data still supports the traditional rhythm until at least 2026. He likens social media misinterpretations to assuming a heartbeat no longer exists when its pace varies. The ‘Heartbeat’ Analogy Onchain analyst Willy Woo is pushing back against a growing wave of skepticism […]
Bitcoin may be gearing up for a rally that sent price to $126,000 last year
The current tight consolidation closely mirrors the April 2025 range that set the stage for the record run above $126,000.
U.S. added 50,000 jobs in December as unemployment rate fell to 4.4%
Bitcoin continued to hold just above $90,000 in the minutes following the report.
Bitcoin’s Next Parabolic Rally Hinges On A Key Data Point
Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) went through one of the most aggressive distribution phases on record in 2025. While the scale of selling rattled the market, onchain data analysis suggests that this pressure may be fading, possibly outlining the next bullish period for BTC price.
Key takeaways:
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Long-term holders distributed about $300 billion in BTC in 2025, marking a historic supply reset.
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Heavy LTH selling has occurred near cycle peaks or during structural transitions, not at the start of new downtrends.
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With selling pressure stalling, the next phase may hinge on how early the long-term holder supply stabilizes.
A historic unwind backed Bitcoin’s 2025 volatility
The amount of Bitcoin (BTC) that had remained unmoved for at least two years moved onchain sharply in 2025. Nearly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin that had been dormant for over a year re-entered circulation. The 30 days from Nov. 15 to Dec. 14, 2025, marked one of the heaviest long-term holder (LTH) distribution periods in more than five years.
Since 2019, sharp declines in long-term holder (LTH) supply have rarely appeared in isolation. They have surfaced during phases when Bitcoin’s trend was already under strain, either approaching exhaustion or undergoing a structural shift.
In 2018, the LTH supply fell to 12 million BTC from 13 million, with selling intensity peaking when the 30-day distribution reached 1.08 million BTC in December. At that point, Bitcoin had already spent months declining. Price bottomed near $3,500 in February 2019, before stabilizing and rallying to $11,000 by mid-year, illustrating how heavy LTH selling could precede recovery rather than mark its end.
The 2020–2021 cycle unfolded differently. LTH supply dropped to 11.65 million BTC from 13.7 million BTC, while Bitcoin price rose to $61,000 from $14,000. The 30-day distribution peak of 891,000 BTC did not immediately halt the rally.
Instead, selling persisted as prices rose, gradually eroding upside momentum before the cycle ultimately rolled over, a reminder that LTH distribution can accompany expansion before defining its limits.

During the 2024–2025 bull run, supply declined to 14.5 million BTC from 15.8 million BTC, with the 30-day distribution peaking at 758,000 BTC. Price topped slightly earlier in March, and both metrics then moved sideways through Q2–Q3, reinforcing a familiar pattern: Price strength tends to fade as long-term holders step up distribution.
The final phase in mid-to-late 2025 proved more abrupt. LTH supply briefly recovered to 15.4 million BTC in June, before collapsing to 13.5 million BTC by December, the sharpest decline on record.
Price weakness appeared in October, but the most selling followed later, with the largest-ever 30-day distribution peak of 1.14 million BTC in November. That sequence suggests capitulation rather than orderly profit-taking, marking a reset rather than a continuation of the prior trend.
Related: Bitcoin RSI hints at $105K BTC price rebound as bull signals multiply
What the pause in selling may be signaling
Since December, the LTH supply has stopped falling, currently around $13.6 million, while Bitcoin has entered a sideways range. Additional confirmation comes from the long-term/short-term holder supply ratio.
Every time this ratio has fallen to –0.5 or below, Bitcoin has either entered a base-building phase or rallied to new highs within weeks. In December, the ratio dropped to about -0.53, after which price volatility compressed and momentum stalled, consistent with a reset rather than trend continuation.

Thus this combination, aggressive distribution followed by supply stabilization, has historically marked transition phases rather than trend continuation. If the trend repeats, the consolidation through Q1to Q2 could act as a base-building period, with any sustained rally more likely to emerge later, potentially into Q3.
Related: BlackRock adds $900M BTC as Bitcoin long-term selling falls to 2017 lows
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
CoinDesk 20 Performance Update: Index Trades Flat as Polygon Gains 11.2%
Polkadot (DOT) dropped 1.4% and Ripple (XRP) fell 0.9% from Thursday.
