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Bitcoin ETFs Shed $817M as BTC Hits Nine-Month Low

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Bitcoin ETFs Shed $817M as BTC Hits Nine-Month Low

In brief

  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $817 million in net outflows Thursday, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $317.8 million in outflows.
  • Analysts point to Kevin Warsh’s potential Fed Chair nomination as a “hawkish” signal that is forcing a massive deleveraging of arbitrage capital.
  • Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks returned as Microsoft’s disappointing 2026 guidance added to the global risk-off mood.

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) notched a massive $817 million net outflow on Thursday, as the leading cryptocurrency’s price plummeted to a nine-month low.

The exodus was led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which saw $317.81 million in redemptions—a figure higher than the combined outflows of Fidelity’s FBTC ($168.05M) and Grayscale’s GBTC ($119.44M), according to SoSoValue data.

The aggressive selling followed a streak of negative catalysts that pushed Bitcoin out of its multi-week trading range, with the price bottoming at $81,315 in early trading—its lowest level since April 2025.

Bitcoin’s price crash

The price drop and ETF outflows were driven by a confluence of policy shifts and disappointing corporate data. This includes the looming announcement of a new Federal Reserve Chair—with speculation centering on Kevin Warsh—and a spillover effect from the equity markets, according to a previous Decrypt report.

Users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, have sharply repriced their outlook after Thursday’s collapse. Bitcoin’s chance of hitting $100,000, as a result, has dropped from 70% yesterday to 49% as of this writing.

“A streak of negative catalysts pushed Bitcoin to break its multi-week trading range to the downside,” Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, told Decrypt.

Barthere noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities has turned positive again. “Bitcoin sold off with equities following the market’s disappointment in Microsoft’s Q4 2025 financial results and its cautious guidance for 2026.”

The transition in Fed leadership is also fundamentally altering the “basis trade” that has sustained ETF volumes for months, Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, told Decrypt.

“From a capital structure perspective, Bitcoin spot ETFs function as a critical channel for leveraged capital to engage in spot-futures and basis arbitrage,” Sun explained. He said that the market is repricing the interest rate path as the probability of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed Chair rises.

“This segment of capital is exceptionally sensitive to shifts in liquidity,” Sun said. “As investors lower their overall risk profiles, they are rotating out of high-volatility assets and into traditional safe-haven and inflation-hedge assets like gold.

This shift has amplified ETF outflows and contributed to the sluggishness in Bitcoin’s recovery.”

Macro headwinds mount

Other macro headwinds have compounded the pressure.

While a potential U.S. government shutdown was averted late Thursday by a Senate funding deal, the market remains on edge over Trump’s executive order declaring a national emergency regarding oil tariffs and ongoing tensions in the South China Sea.

“Flow-wise, we have been observing a slow capitulation in ETFs, options, and miner activity for some time,” Barthere added.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $82,687, down nearly 6% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko, as the market awaits the official White House announcement of the Fed Chair nominee later today.

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Finextra release their 2026 US Regulation Pulse Check Survey report

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Finextra release their 2026 US Regulation Pulse Check Survey report

Building on Finextra’s US Regulation Survey 2025: Compliance at a Crossroads, our 2026 version, capturing and exploring ongoing priorities within US regulation, is now available to download.

Editorial

This content has been selected, created and edited by the Finextra editorial team based upon its relevance and interest to our community.

Our 2026 US Regulation Pulse Check survey report reveals that the US financial services industry – in navigating a landscape that is swept up in deregulation and for the most part, not left stagnant – is embracing a new version of optimism for the year ahead. Banks, credit unions, fintech firms and technology providers are confident to move forward, but are also grounded enough to recognise the responsibilities that come with being afforded greater flexibility.  

Surveying 201 US-based financial service professionals in Q4 2025, the report revealed key insights to help navigate this complex landscape, and how your organisation can lead the way.

While 51% of firms see deregulation as positive, only 8% view it as risk free, highlighting growing responsibilities in governance and consumer protection. Overall confidence in meeting regulatory requirements remains high, though fewer feel ‘very confident’ compared to 2025, reflecting a more measured outlook in the face of regulatory upheaval.

Madhvi Sonia, vice president – content, Finextra Research commented: “With regulatory unpredictability increasing, potential vulnerabilities can only be expected to track the same way. As also seen in the 2025 report, technology is no longer a-nice-to-have or an aspiration: we are in the era of the upgrade and therefore, as changes in products and services permeate, structural weaknesses must be addressed in lockstep before it is too late.”

Sonia added: “Strategies around deregulation, technology adoption, and shifting regulatory expectations should be intertwined and as the financial services sector leans into flexibility, we must remain vigilant, while also maintaining optimism, pragmatism and determination to scale resilience. In 2026, those that understand that reduced regulatory pressure does not mean reduced responsibility will win.”  

Download the full report here, to discover the insights financial leaders are already using to shape their compliance strategies.

Russia To Roll Out Bitcoin, Crypto Rules In July

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Russia To Roll Out Bitcoin, Crypto Rules In July

Russia is preparing to introduce its first comprehensive regulatory framework for crypto like Bitcoin, with lawmakers aiming to finalize the draft for a parliamentary vote by the end of June, according to local media reports.

Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, said that the long-anticipated rules could be approved as early as this summer. 

If passed, the framework would formally take effect one year later, opening regulated bitcoin and crypto trading to both qualified and non-qualified investors beginning July 1, 2027.

Under the proposed regime, retail investors would be allowed to participate in the crypto market, though with significant restrictions. 

State news agency TASS previously reported that non-qualified traders would be capped at annual purchases of 300,000 rubles (roughly $3,900) and would only be permitted to buy a limited set of what regulators deem the “most liquid” cryptocurrencies.

Professional and qualified investors, by contrast, would be allowed to trade cryptocurrencies in unlimited amounts, with the exception of privacy-focused tokens such as Monero and Zcash. Russian authorities have repeatedly cited concerns over anonymity and compliance with anti-money laundering standards as the rationale for excluding such assets.

‘Bitcoin will definitely be included’ 

Alexandra Fedotova, a lawyer at Moscow-based firm White Stone, said the Central Bank of Russia is expected to compile a shortlist of approved cryptocurrencies for retail trading. 

“Most likely, the Central Bank will compile a list of the top five to ten most traded cryptocurrencies on major exchanges,” Fedotova said in comments reported by local media. “Bitcoin and ether will definitely be included. Possibly SOL or TON will be added, given their popularity in our country. Everything else will be only for qualified investors.”

The framework would also permit Russian residents to purchase bitcoin abroad using foreign accounts and transfer those assets back to domestic platforms, provided the transactions are reported to tax authorities.

Stablecoins are expected to receive separate treatment under the law. Fedotova said regulators are likely to classify dollar-pegged tokens as instruments for cross-border economic activity, potentially clarifying their legal use in international settlements while maintaining existing domestic restrictions.

Beyond trading, the draft legislation seeks to establish formal rules governing the issuance, bitcoin and crypto mining, and circulation of digital assets. At the same time, it would reaffirm Russia’s long-standing ban on using cryptocurrencies for domestic payments, a position the central bank has consistently defended despite gradually softening its stance on crypto trading.

Aksakov said additional legislation is planned to define enforcement measures, including administrative, financial, and potentially criminal liability for illegal activity in the crypto sector. Penalties for unlawful operations by intermediaries are expected to mirror those applied to illegal banking activity.

Existing licensed exchanges and brokers would be allowed to continue operating under the new regime, while platforms and custodial services currently operating in a legal gray area would be required to obtain new licenses tailored to their specific activities.

Metaplanet Raises $137 Million To Buy Bitcoin And Pay Debts

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Metaplanet Raises $137 Million To Buy Bitcoin And Pay Debts

Metaplanet, the Tokyo-listed bitcoin treasury company, plans to raise up to 21 billion yen ($137 million) through a new share and warrant issuance as it doubles down on its strategy of accumulating bitcoin while reducing leverage.

The company said it will raise the funds via a third-party allotment of new common shares and stock acquisition rights placed directly with select investors, rather than through a public offering.

Under the plan, Metaplanet will issue 24.53 million new common shares priced at 499 yen per share — roughly 5% above the prior closing price — generating approximately 12.24 billion yen in upfront proceeds. 

The firm’s shares closed at 456 yen, down about 4%, reflecting near-term dilution concerns despite the premium pricing.

Each newly issued share will be accompanied by 0.65 stock acquisition rights, equivalent to 15.94 million potential additional shares and representing 65% warrant coverage. The warrants carry a fixed exercise price of 547 yen and can be exercised over a one-year period. If fully exercised, they would generate an additional 8.9 billion yen in proceeds.

Importantly, the warrants are fixed-strike instruments rather than moving-strike warrants, limiting variable dilution for existing shareholders.

“The 65% warrant coverage exercisable at ¥547 for one year is a fixed strike,” said Dylan LeClair, head of bitcoin strategy at Metaplanet. “The financing structure enables Metaplanet to capitalize on common stock volatility to sell shares at a premium to market while raising capital today.”

Metaplanet said 5.2 billion yen of the upfront capital will be used to partially repay existing debt. According to the company’s dashboard, Metaplanet currently carries approximately $280 million in outstanding debt.

Metaplanet will use the money to buy bitcoin

The remaining funds will primarily support further bitcoin purchases, alongside general corporate purposes and the expansion of its bitcoin income-generation business, which includes options strategies and lending. 

The firm said about 14 billion yen ($91.2 million) has been earmarked specifically for bitcoin accumulation, with an additional 1.5 billion yen ($9.8 million) allocated to income-generating activities.

The board approved the financing at a meeting Thursday, with the allotment and payment date set for Feb. 13, 2026. The warrants will be exercisable from Feb. 16, 2026, through Feb. 15, 2027.

Metaplanet currently holds 35,102 bitcoin, making it the fourth-largest bitcoin holder among publicly traded companies. The company has modeled its strategy on U.S.-based firms such as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which remains the largest corporate holder with more than 700,000 BTC.

The capital raise follows Metaplanet’s recently announced long-term objective to acquire up to 210,000 BTC — roughly 1% of bitcoin’s total supply — by 2027. The firm said the accumulation will occur in stages and be managed through its subsidiary, Metaplanet Lightning Capital.

Despite bitcoin’s recent pullback — with BTC trading near $87,800 at the time of publication — Metaplanet said it remains confident in the asset’s medium- to long-term outlook. The company added that it expects the financing to have a minimal impact on its 2026 financial results and will disclose any material changes if necessary.

DXY index and VIX surge as markets await U.S. Open

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DXY index and VIX surge as markets await U.S. Open

The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to announce Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair on Friday, replacing Jerome Powell, a development that has unsettled markets and triggered a broad selloff across asset classes.

As a result risk sentiment has deteriorated as investors price in potential shifts in monetary policy direction.

Meanwhile, the DXY index, which tracks the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies, has edged up to 96.6.

U.S. Treasury yields are modestly higher, with the 10 year benchmark yield at approximately 4.25%.

Volatility has surged with the Volatility Index (VIX) up 13% and the MOVE Index, which tracks volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, higher by 6%.

In Friday pre-market trading, the Invesco QQQ (QQQ) is down more than 1%, trading around $622 per share.

Bitcoin has fallen significantly, sliding to $82,000. As a result of this drop, bitcoin has fallen out of the top ten global assets by market capitalization and now ranks eleventh, with a market cap of $1.6 trillion.

Equities tied to bitcoin have followed suit. Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded holder of bitcoin, is down 4% in pre market trading after falling roughly 10% on Thursday, now trading near $138. In the bitcoin mining and AI sector, IREN (IREN) is down 5% at $57, while Cipher Mining (CIFR) is lower by 4%. While both Galaxy Digital (GLXY) and Coinbase (COIN) are down 3%.

Metals have absorbed much of the downside during the last 24 hours. Gold has retreated toward $5,000 per ounce, while silver has fallen back to around $100 per ounce. Other commodities have also weakened, with copper and oil both trading lower.

BTC-to-gold ratio nears a 2019 style turning point after six red candles

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BTC-to-gold ratio nears a 2019 style turning point after six red candles

Bitcoin BTC$82,791.82 is on track to end January underperforming gold for the sixth straight month as investors ignore the largest cryptocurrency’s “digital gold” moniker and seek the safety of a metal that’s historically been seen as a haven in times of economic and geopolitical turmoil.

The bitcoin-to-gold ratio, the amount of gold equivalent to 1 BTC, has dropped 23% this month, and is currently standing at 16.3. The six-month pattern closely resembles what happened in 2019, when the sequence began in August and ended in January the following year. Back then, bitcoin outperformed gold for the following five months.

The first signs of a retrenchment may be emerging. The ratio rebounded Friday by 4% after dropping to as low as 15.5 on Thursday. That low coincided with a sharp selloff across global markets, with risk assets declining aggressively.

Bitcoin is currently hovering around $82,000, down just over 2% since midnight UTC. By comparison, gold has fallen more than 8% and silver roughly 16%.

From the peak in late 2024, the bitcoin-to-gold ratio has declined by roughly 60%, placing bitcoin in a technical bear market against gold for around 14 months. Even if the ratio has now bottomed, that does not automatically imply a strong upside for bitcoin. It may simply reflect gold continuing to weaken at a faster rate than bitcoin.

Adoption, Not Ideas, Is the Bottleneck

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Adoption, Not Ideas, Is the Bottleneck

In this conversation, Marnix van Stiphout of ING addresses a misconception that still dominates many innovation discussions in banking: that progress is limited by a lack of ideas or weak business cases. In reality, he argues, the opposite is true. ING — like many large institutions — has no shortage of strong ideas, compelling use cases, or financially sound initiatives. The real challenge lies elsewhere.

According to van Stiphout, the defining bottleneck today is organisational adoption at scale. The question is no longer whether solutions work, or whether they can technically scale. Instead, it is whether the organisation itself can scale with them. That means ensuring teams across different countries, business units, and functions are ready to operate new solutions consistently and confidently.

This challenge is fundamentally human and organisational. Scaling innovation requires people to work differently, acquire new skills, and take on new responsibilities. It also demands that risk processes, governance frameworks, and operational controls evolve in parallel. Without these foundations, even the strongest innovations risk becoming isolated successes rather than enterprise-wide capabilities.

Van Stiphout is clear that ING already has “big cases” running — initiatives that deliver real value and are actively used in the business. But he is equally candid about the gap between having a handful of large-scale initiatives and running hundreds of them simultaneously. Closing that gap requires ING to continue developing as an organisation, not just as a technology adopter.

The challenge is compounded by ING’s global footprint. Rolling out new capabilities across regions means dealing with different regulatory environments, cultural norms, and levels of maturity. A solution that works well in one market may require entirely different operating models, skills, or controls in another. Preparing the entire ecosystem — people, processes, and governance — becomes the critical path.

This perspective reframes how success should be measured. Progress is not defined by the number of pilots launched or proofs of concept completed. Instead, it is defined by the organisation’s capacity to absorb change repeatedly, without increasing risk or operational fragility. Adoption, not invention, becomes the ultimate competitive advantage.

Van Stiphout’s message is pragmatic and forward-looking. Innovation in banking has entered a new phase — one where the winners will not be those with the most ideas, but those who can turn good ideas into everyday, repeatable practice at global scale.

Bearish Bitcoin Analysts Predict BTC Price Can Drop to as Low as $50K

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Bearish Bitcoin Analysts Predict BTC Price Can Drop to as Low as $50K

Bitcoin (BTC) has finally slid below a key support level at $84,000, which has held the price since mid-November 2025. Where will BTC price action head next?

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin dropped to a two-month low of $81,00 on Thursday, fueled by $1.6 billion in long liquidations 

  • Some analysts forecast deeper declines in a prolonged bear market targeting $50,000-$58,000.

Bitcoin sentiment at record lows suggests “no upcycle”

Bitcoin extended its sell-off into the late New York trading session on Thursday, dropping to two-month lows of $81,000. 

Support at the 2026 yearly open ($87,000), the 100-day moving averages and the $84,000-$86,000 demand zone failed to hold back sellers as crypto long liquidations passed $1.6 billion. Bitcoin wiped out more than $750 million in long positions on its tumble to $81,000.

Related: Bitfinex Bitcoin longs hit highest level since late 2023: Is a rally to $100K possible?

The risk-off mode reflects negative investor sentiment, which has dropped to “extreme fear” at 16 from yesterday’s reading of 26.

“Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 16, signaling extreme fear, ” analysts at Crypto Town Hall said, adding 

“Such levels historically reflect heavy risk-off sentiment and capitulation-driven conditions, often seen during sharp drawdowns or leverage flushes.”

Economist Timothy Peterson pointed out that consumer sentiment is approaching record lows, with the “5-year average at an all-time low.”

“People just don’t buy Bitcoin or any other risk assets in an environment like this,” he said in a Friday post on X, adding:

“There’s no upcycle until this reverses.”

Bitcoin’s consumer index. Source: Timothy Peterson 

As Cointelegraph reported, “extreme fear” among investors is a reflection of “painful” conditions as those seen after the FTX crash, suggesting uncertainty and an unlikely turnaround in BTC price action in the near term. 

Analysts say BTC may bottom at $50,000

As Bitcoin sentiment continues to decline, analysts expect bear market conditions to last longer and with lower price targets.

These include a retest of the 200-week moving averages, which have “often been great value areas for long-term buys,” according to trader and analyst Daan Crypto Trades.

“The closer you can accumulate to these MAs, the better value you’re getting,” the analyst said in a Friday post on X, adding:

“Over time the price can meet the moving averages even if it hovers sideways.”

Note that the 200-week SMA is currently at $57,974, coinciding with the downside target of a bear flag as shown in the chart below.

Such a move would represent a 30.5% decline from the current price and a 54% drawdown from the all-time high at $126,000.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Fellow analyst Keith Alan highlighted similarities between BTC’s current price action in the weekly time frame to that seen in 2021-2022.

Bitcoin may see some “short-term rallies off of these near-range lows, but ultimately I think this bear market will last longer,” he said in his latest analysis on X. 

Alan referred to the $74,500 range low, reached in April 2025, following US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. 

The analyst said the BTC/USD pair will “ultimately” drop below $74,000 in the absence of a “great“ catalyst and slide lower to the 2021 all-time high at $69,000.

“I’d like it a lot more if it takes until August to grind down that low,” Alan said, adding:

“If we sprint down there in February, the $50K range will look more interesting to me later in the year. ”

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: X/Keith Alan

As Cointelegraph reported, many analysts expect 2026 to be a bear market year, and various forecasts predict the BTC price dropping to as low as $58,000.