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BTC price bulls, forget the official stats, U.S. inflation is crashing: Crypto Daybook Americas

Bitcoin

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February 3, 2026

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BTC price bulls, forget the official stats, U.S. inflation is crashing: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

A real-time tracker of U.S. inflation is offering good news to crypto bulls as bearish forecasts continue to roll in.

The Truflation index, an independent, real-time blockchain-based tracker of daily changes in the consumer price index (CPI), has dropped below 1% for the first time since at least early 2021. The index has fallen from 2.67% since mid-December, taking it well below the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.

So while the official government reading stays 700 basis points above the Fed’s target, the real-time level is showing fast disinflation, a scenario that supports the case for quick-fire interest-rate cuts by the bank.

That’s good news for liquidity-sensitive assets such as bitcoin BTC$78,267.21, especially since the cryptocurrency is now trading 38% below the record $126,000 price from early October. The Truflation reading also contrasts forecasts of inflation resurgence by some analysts.

“As measured by Truflation, consumer price inflation has dropped to 0.86% on a year-over-year basis, breaking significantly below the 2-3% range in place for the past two years. In our view, inflation could turn negative, contrary to BlackRock and PIMCO forecasts,” Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, said on X.

The good news doesn’t stop there. Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who correctly warned of a worsening fiscal situation for Japan last year, predicted President Donald’s Trump’s pick for Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, could cut rates by 100 basis points this year.

Let’s see if these things offer relief to the crypto market. As of publication time, BTC is trading little changed around $78,000, with smaller tokens showing some recovery, as evidenced by the 2% gain in the CoinDesk 80 Index over 24 hours. Hyperliquid’s HYPE and POL stand out as the only top-100 tokens with gains in excess of 10%.

Analysts remain optimistic about long-term prospects.

“In the near term, positioning in crypto does remain fragile. But structurally, ongoing institutional adoption, expanding use of stablecoins for cross-border settlement, and the rise of tokenized real-world assets should improve crypto market depth and interoperability,” Emir Ibrahim, an analyst at digital asset trading firm Zerocap, told CoinDesk in an email.

“Over time, these dynamics are expected to reinforce Bitcoin’s debasement hedge characteristics, even if the market is not yet fully pricing that narrative today,” Ibrahim added.

In traditional markets, both the dollar index and Treasury yields are buoyant in the wake of Monday’s strong manufacturing data. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Crypto
Macro
- Feb. 3 U.S. JOLTs data delayed over partial U.S. government shutdown.
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Feb. 3: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, -$0.95
- Feb. 3: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.29

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Governance votes & calls
Unlocks
Token Launches
- Feb. 3: Conflux (CFX) to be listed on Kraken.
- Feb. 3: Usualx’s unlock window closes.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Market Movements

BTC is down 0.1% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $78,400.52 (24hrs: +0.9%)
ETH is down 2.03% at $2,292.99 (24hrs: +0.14%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 0.94% at at 2,278.33 (24hrs: +0.55%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 3%
BTC funding rate is at 0% (0.0372% annualized) on Binance

DXY is unchanged at 97.58
Gold futures are up 6.13% at $4,938.00
Silver futures are up 11.81% at $86.10
Nikkei 225 closed up 3.92% at 54,720.66
Hang Seng closed up 0.22% at 26,834.77
FTSE is down 0.05% at 10,336.54
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.56% at 6,041.35
DJIA closed on Monday up 1.05% at 49,407.66
S&P 500 closed up 0.54% at 6,976.44
Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.56% at 23,592.11
S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.82% at 32,183.88
S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.91% at 3,656.11
U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1.2 bps at 4.289%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% at 7,016.25
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.51% at 25,981.00
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 49,522.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 60.08% (0.18%)
Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02919 (-2.09%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 870 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $35.10
Total fees: 3.42 BTC / $266,100
CME Futures Open Interest: 113,495 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 15.8 oz.
BTC vs gold market cap: 5.22%

Technical Analysis

SOL's weekly pice swings in candlestick format. (TradingView) — SOL’s price chart. (TradingView)

The chart shows solana SOL$103.19 price swings in candlestick format since 2022.
Prices dropped to support at $95.16 idenfitied by the horizontal line connecting the low hit in April last year.
this support breaks, Solana faces little backing until the mid-$30s. Bulls, therefore, need to hold $95.16 to avoid a deeper crash.

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $187.86 (-3.53%), +0.90% at $189.55 in pre-market
Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $58.86 (-7.93%), +1.95% at $60.01
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $26.44 (-6.44%), +1.06% at $26.70
Bullish (BLSH): closed at $28.77 (-4.74%), +2.57% at $29.51
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.12 (-4.00%), +0.77% at $9.19
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.32 (-0.97%), +1.31% at $15.52
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.87 (-0.67%)
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.04 (-6.76%), +1.36% at $11.19
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $44.44 (-1.38%)
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $11.18 (-14.59%), -0.63% at $11.11

Crypto Treasury Companies

Strategy (MSTR): closed at $139.63 (-6.73%), +1.12% at $141.19
Strive (ASST): closed at $0.72 (-11.94%), +2.32% at $0.74
SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $7.79 (-12.27%), +0.77% at $7.85
Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.62 (-8.99%), +2.47% at $1.66
Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.14 (-5.79%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: $561.8 million
Cumulative net flows: $55.55 billion
Total BTC holdings ~1.28 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: -$2.9 million
Cumulative net flows: $12 billion
Total ETH holdings ~5.9 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

Elon Musk’s xAi dives into crypto, tradfi amid $1tn merger with SpaceX – DL News

Crypto News

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February 3, 2026

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Elon Musk’s xAi dives into crypto, tradfi amid $1tn merger with SpaceX – DL News

xAI goes on hiring spree for crypto and finance experts to train AI models.
The firm seeks those familiar with crypto tools including DefiLlama, Nansen, Chainalysis.
The push comes as SpaceX merges with xAI.

Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAi is recruiting for over a dozen crypto and traditional finance roles to train its models, the firm’s website showed on Tuesday.

Among the positions advertised are finance expert roles spanning crypto, equity and fixed-income, private credit, and quantitative trading.

The new crypto role “will contribute directly to xAI’s mission by training and refining our advanced AI models,” the posting said.

Duties include teaching AI models “how crypto quantitative traders analyze blockchain data, model tokenomics, evaluate on-chain flows, manage extreme volatility.”

The job also requires using leading crypto tools, including Nansen, Chainalysis, and DefiLlama, xAI said.

xAI did not immediately respond to a request for commentary on its crypto ambitions when asked by DL News.

Musk and his companies have long been involved in crypto markets, too.

In February 2021, the billionaire dubbed Dogecoin “the people’s crypto,” sending the token soaring by some 800%.

Tesla was one of the first publicly traded US companies to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet in 2021.

Musk‘s consolidation

The slew of new roles comes as Musk’s rocket venture SpaceX is taking over xAI as the billionaire continues consolidating his business interests.

The merger is valued at over $1 trillion, Bloomberg reported on Monday, though the terms of the deal are not public.

xAI began as a unit within the social media company X, formerly Twitter, after Musk bought the firm in 2022. It has since been incorporated and is valued higher than X.

Overall, xAI has drummed up $42 billion from venture investors, placing it behind only OpenAI, one of its competitors in the large language model segment.

Tesla, the electric vehicle company led by Musk, also invested $2 billion into xAI in January.

“In the long term, space-based AI is obviously the only way to scale,” xAI said in the press release.

“To harness even a millionth of our Sun’s energy would require over a million times more energy than our civilization currently uses!”

Lance Datskoluo is DL News’ Europe-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email him at lance@dlnews.com.

Strategy (MSTR) shares slide toward eighth straight monthly decline

Ethereum

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February 3, 2026

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Strategy (MSTR) shares slide toward eighth straight monthly decline

As February begins, Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest publicly traded holder of bitcoin BTC$78,130.01, is already down 7% and on track for an eighth consecutive monthly decline.

The stock, currently trading near $141, is down roughly 75% from its November 2024 record high of around $540.

The bulk of the decline has occurred since July, with seven straight negative months. By end-2025, the stock had fallen 48% for the year, its second-worst annual performance on record. The worst year remains 2022, when shares declined 75%.

The bitcoin price, by comparison, has dropped around 40% from its October all time high. This puts the performance gap between MSTR and bitcoin at roughly 35%. In January, that spread briefly widened to 45%, matching a record last seen in 2021, according to checkonchain.

The company’s multiple to net asset value (mNAV), calculated by dividing enterprise value by its bitcoin reserves, remains above 1 at 1.09. This means Strategy is able to continue selling common stock through at-the-market offerings to buy bitcoin.

However, if the stock drops further, future bitcoin purchases are likely to be smaller. Should mNAV fall below 1, the company may be forced to pause purchases and wait for a rebound.

During the previous bear market, in 2022, Strategy was able to raise only $275 million, and used the proceeds to buy roughly 10,000 BTC.

Read More: Michael Saylor’s bitcoin stack is officially underwater, but here’s why he likely won’t reach for the panic button

Allica Bank Slashes Commercial Mortgage and Bridging Rates to Take on High Street Banks

Fintech

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February 3, 2026

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Allica Bank Slashes Commercial Mortgage and Bridging Rates to Take on High Street Banks

Allica Bank, the challenger bank for established businesses, has implemented significant pricing reductions across its commercial mortgage and bridging products, explicitly positioning itself to compete directly with high street lenders on price.

The bank confirmed it has cut rates on owner-occupied and commercial investment mortgages by up to 1.3 per cent. The move is part of a broader simplification of its full property-backed lending range, designed to help brokers drive investment among the UK’s established business community.

Deepening relationships

Nick Baker, chief commercial officer at Allica

Alongside the headline rate cuts, Allica has introduced price reductions across its bridging, semi-commercial, specialist healthcare, and children’s nursery products.

The bank is also incentivising deeper banking relationships. It has doubled the discount on owner-occupied mortgages to 0.5 per cent for businesses that open a current account alongside their loan. This follows a limited-time offer launched in November, which waives the £500 commitment fee and provides 0.5 per cent cashback for eligible applications submitted before 31 March 2026 and completed by 30 June 2026.

Nick Baker, chief commercial officer at Allica, commented on the strategy: “We’ve cut rates across the board, simplified our product suite, and backed it all up with experienced people who pick up the phone and help move cases forward. It means brokers can place more deals with confidence, and their clients get competitive pricing without the friction they might get elsewhere.”

Growth trajectory

Allica, which focuses on businesses with between 5 and 250 employees, recently reported that it had lent over £3.5billion to established businesses across the UK.

The bank has seen rapid expansion, having been named the UK’s fastest-growing company by The Sunday Times in 2024 and topping Deloitte’s UK Fast 50 for two consecutive years (2023 and 2024). Allica claims its annual revenue growth makes it the “fastest-growing fintech ever,” having broken into yearly profitability in 2023.

Its stated ambition is to capture 10 per cent market share over the next five years, challenging the dominance of major banks that it argues often overlook the needs of established SMEs.

Bitcoin Analysts Disagree Over Reflation Trade After PMI Overshoot

Markets

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February 3, 2026

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Bitcoin Analysts Disagree Over Reflation Trade After PMI Overshoot

Bitcoin (BTC) may be set to gain from new macro tailwinds as US macro data sets up a “reflation” trade.

Key points:

US ISM PMI data for January breaks a full year of contraction during 2025.
Reactions disagree over the impact on BTC price action despite the previous PMI correlation.
A hidden bearish divergence between PMI and BTC/USD is now active.

PMI feeds case for BTC price “final bull”

New analysis from sources including Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise, sees US financial policy fueling a BTC price rebound.

This week, the latest Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) delivered a surprise overshoot.

ISM PMI is a composite gauge for US economic performance, and contracted throughout 2025. Now, the index has pushed back above the key 50 level for the first time since mid-2022, data from TradingView confirms.

US ISM PMI one-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

For Dragosch, this, coming as a consequence of the wild rally in gold and silver, means one thing: “reflation.”

“You’re naive if you believe that there is no valuable information for bitcoin in the latest (precious-)metals rally,” he told X followers in a post on Tuesday.

Dragosch argued that the ISM spike was thus “no surprise.”

“Such macro environments have always been associated with bitcoin bulls runs in the past,” he added.

*ISM PMI vs. Composite Reflation Index. Source: Andre Dragosch/X*

Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe went further, stressing the correlation between PMI and BTC price strength in recent years as part of a broader risk-on cycle.

“The ISM Manufacturing PMI is heading into the first 50+ read in more than 3 years. It’s been one of the longest ‘bear’ markets on that regard. Not great for the business cycle, and not great for Bitcoin,” he wrote on X.

“The fact that Bitcoin rallied is simply and only due to the launch and liquidity of the ETF. By now, just now, is the moment that the markets start to wake up.”

Van de Poppe acknowledged major changes in economic conditions over Bitcoin’s previous price cycles, adding that the current setup required “perspective.”

“In the coming 1-3 years, we’ll see a strong, and final bull on Bitcoin and Crypto,” he forecast.

Bitcoin vs. PMI: “Probably different outcome”

Reflation refers to deliberate policy measures designed to stimulate economic activity without sparking price increases — inflationary forces.

Related: Bitcoin bull market ‘over’? BTC price sees 4th red monthly candle

The US is currently in a tenuous position with regard to inflation after the latest data releases painted a mixed picture over trajectory.

As Cointelegraph reported, concerns remain that inflation may reemerge as 2026 goes on.

PMI on its own was therefore not enough to convince everyone that Bitcoin would see relief this year.

“Cherry-picking a single macroeconomic indicator and treating it as the cycle is, in economics, called proxy abuse,” trader Titan of Crypto commented on the back of the data.

Titan of Crypto directly compared PMI data to BTC price action, and highlighted a key difference this time around.

“In 2013, 2016 and 2020, when PMI moved back above 50, Bitcoin showed a hidden bullish divergence. Each time, a bull run followed. Today? PMI just crossed above 50 again but this time we have a regular bearish divergence instead,” he concluded.