Home Blog Page 108

Bitcoin to $145K by October? This Old Post With ‘Crazy Accurate’ BTC Price Predictions Say So

info@uweb3.io
-
0
Bitcoin to $145K by October? This Old Post With ‘Crazy Accurate’ BTC Price Predictions Say So

A viral social media post is reviving an alleged Bitcoin prediction that appears to have called several major BTC price levels from 2019 through 2024, with one final target remaining: $145,000 by October 2026.

Key takeaways:

  • The new viral post appears to be an iteration of an older post with different Bitcoin price targets.
  • It also claims the author holds more than 90% of the Bitcoin supply, which is mathematically impossible.

The Bitcoin target still requires proof

The screenshot, shared by crypto account Corleone, shows an anonymous 4chan-style post dated Dec. 20, 2018.

Bitcoin price prediction screenshot. Source: X/Corleone

It claims that a certain group holds “around 90% of total supply” and lists Bitcoin price targets for October 2019, February 2021, July 2021, November 2021, April 2022, November 2022, March 2024, July 2024, September 2024 and October 2026.

At first glance, the prediction looks unusually correct, with Corleone calling them “crazy accurate.” Bitcoin did trade at several of the listed historical levels, including around $67,000 in November 2021 and near $16,000 during the November 2022 bear-market low.

But there are several problems with treating the screenshot as authentic.

The original post is not publicly verifiable

The biggest issue is provenance. The screenshot does not show a verifiable archive link, tripcode, or any identity marker tying the prediction to a repeatable 4chan user.

That matters because 4chan posts are usually anonymous by design. “Anonymous” is not a single person or account. Without an archived source, there is no reliable way to prove that the same person predicted the events before they happened.

A Binance Square post from July 2024 uses the same “we hold around 90% of total supply” wording and many of the same targets, but lists Bitcoin at $105,400 in September 2024.

Bitcoin price prediction screenshot. Source: Binance Square

The newer viral screenshot instead shows September 2024 at $74,000 and adds the October 2026 target of $145,000.

Related: Bitcoin $150K price calls are ‘drying up,’ which is healthy

That difference is a major red flag. It suggests the image or prediction list may have been edited over time to better match Bitcoin’s historical price action.

The market cap claim does not add up

The screenshot also says the prediction would produce a $5.7 trillion market cap, with Bitcoin dominance at 40%–47%.

If the $5.7 trillion figure refers to Bitcoin alone, it is mathematically wrong. At $145,000 per BTC and roughly 20 million BTC in circulation, Bitcoin’s market capitalization would be about $2.9 trillion.

Even using Bitcoin’s full 21 million maximum supply, the market cap would be around $3.05 trillion.

If the post refers to the total crypto market, the wording is unclear and still does not prove anything about the prediction’s authenticity.

The “90% of BTC supply” claim lacks proof

The screenshot also claims: “We hold around 90% of total supply now.”

Bitcoin has about 20.04 million BTC in circulating supply and a 21 million BTC supply cap, so 90% would imply control of roughly 18 million BTC.

Also, the top 100 richest Bitcoin addresses control about 15.27% of the BTC supply, while the top 10,000 addresses hold about 53.89% of the same, according to data resource Bitinfocharts.

That is far below the 90% supply supposedly held by the viral post’s author.

For now, the claim that an anonymous 4chan user accurately predicted Bitcoin’s major price moves through 2026 should be treated as unproven. It appears more likely to be an edited or recycled crypto meme than proof of a trader who “does not miss.”

Bitcoin Rotations Into Altcoin Market is Collapsing: Is Altseason Postponed?

info@uweb3.io
-
0
Bitcoin Rotations Into Altcoin Market is Collapsing: Is Altseason Postponed?

Cryptocurrency traders are no longer using Bitcoin (BTC) profits to buy altcoins as they did in previous bull cycles, raising doubts about whether a broad “altseason” can return.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin-to-altcoin rotation trend has collapsed to its weakest level since 2021.
  • Altcoin capital is increasingly getting concentrated in fewer projects, delaying the altseason.

Bitcoin-to-altcoin rotation trend has “basically disappeared”

The old altseason trade is no longer working the way it did in previous bull cycles, according to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant.

In a Saturday post, Ju said the Bitcoin-to-altcoin rotation trend has “basically disappeared,” citing CryptoQuant data showing BTC-pair altcoin trading volume has collapsed to its weakest levels since 2021.

Aggregated altcoin trading volume for BTC-priced pairs. Source: CryptoQuant

The metric excludes major altcoins such as Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), BNB (BNB) and Solana (SOL), focusing instead on mid- and lower-cap altcoins traded against Bitcoin on centralized exchanges.

In simple terms, it shows whether traders are using BTC to buy smaller altcoins.

That flow surged in 2017 and 2021, helping fuel record altseasons. But Young Ju’s chart shows BTC-pair altcoin volume remains near post-2021 lows, suggesting Bitcoin is no longer the main liquidity source for altcoin speculation.

“The era of alts pumping just because BTC pumps may be over,” Young Ju said.

Altcoin capital is now concentrated in fewer tokens

The wider altcoin market has become more concentrated, excluding stablecoins.

As of Saturday, the non-BTC, non-stablecoin crypto market was worth roughly $600 billion. The top 10 non-stablecoin altcoins accounted for about $483 billion of that total, or roughly 80.5%.

TOTAL crypto market excluding Bitcoin and all stablecoins. Source: TradingView

The number of large market-cap altcoins has also fallen sharply since the last bull cycle.

In 2021, roughly 106 altcoins had above $1 billion in market valuation, according to CoinMarketCap’s historical snapshot. That number fell to around 50 in June 2026.

This echoes Young Ju’s argument that capital is no longer spreading across the altcoin market the way it did in 2021. The market has not disappeared, but it is being comprised of fewer large altcoins.

In a separate thread, Young Ju said that “narrative-only altcoins” are losing relevance as the market matures.

Source: X/Ki Young Ju

Young Ju said hype alone is no longer enough. The stronger areas, he added, are tied to real businesses, revenue-generating DeFi, stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, and AI agents.

That suggests the next altcoin cycle may be less about rotating into the whole market and more about finding tokens that can find applications and users across the aforementioned fields.

BTC dominance rebound may have “postponed” altseason

Bitcoin’s crypto market dominance (BTC.D) is also showing early signs of a rebound, which could delay a broader altcoin rally.

The BTC.D metric has bounced from its 100-week exponential moving average (100-week EMA, purple) and the lower trend line of an ascending channel, both aligning at the 58.75% level.

BTC.D weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView

It could rally toward the channel’s upper trend line near 60% if momentum persists.

A move toward 60% would mean Bitcoin is gaining market share against the rest of crypto. In market terms, that suggests capital may continue rotating from altcoins back into BTC, limiting the chances of a near-term altseason.

Analyst Rekt Capital shared a similar view, pointing to a bullish divergence on Bitcoin dominance, which suggests that the “altseason is postponed.”

BTC.D weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView/Rekt Capital

A bullish divergence forms when the metric makes lower lows while its RSI makes higher lows. It often signals weakening downside momentum and a potential rebound.

Related: Altcoin selling tops $266B as capital rotates out of crypto: Is altseason extinct?

Nevertheless, Rekt Capital said Bitcoin dominance’s upside may be limited because the metric has already lost its macro uptrend. He said the current bounce may act as a post-breakdown relief rally before further downside.

Bitcoin’s dominance may drop toward its 200-week EMA at 57% if Rekt Capital’s bearish scenario plays out.

Crypto Industry Looks to Stablecoin and DeFi Revisions in MiCA 2.0

info@uweb3.io
-
0
Crypto Industry Looks to Stablecoin and DeFi Revisions in MiCA 2.0

In May, the European Commission opened a comment period, seeking feedback on regulations for the cryptocurrency and blockchain industries. 

The comment period will precede eventual revisions and additions to the Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) legislative framework. Some have already dubbed the expected new framework “MiCA 2.0.”

Katie Harries, director and head of policy for Europe at Coinbase, told Cointelegraph that there are several key areas where “refinements could help ensure the framework remains competitive in the next phase of digital asset regulation.”

With an updated version of EU crypto law, the crypto industry is looking for more regulatory clarity in DeFi, stablecoins and tokenization.

MiCA was just the first step

Full application and enforcement of MiCA rules began on December 30, 2024, with the first licenses issued in the first months of 2025.

While the legislative process was long and complex, the EU still managed to create a regulatory framework for crypto ahead of the United States. Per Harries, “MiCA helped set an early global benchmark for digital asset regulation and gave the EU a first-mover advantage.”

It represented an “important first move” for the EU which created a “a single, harmonised rulebook for crypto” among its member states. “It gave consumers greater protection and transparency, while providing businesses with the regulatory clarity needed to build, invest and grow across the bloc.”

Harries said that, for Coinbase, MiCA provided a foundation on which it can expand its business in Europe into “the next phase of adoption across both retail and institutional markets.”

Now, Brussels is looking to recalibrate its landmark legislation. The consultation is split into four parts:

  1. Regulatory scope and definitions for crypto assets other than asset-referenced tokens (ARTs) and e-money tokens (EMTs)
  2. Requirements for EMTs, ARTs and their issuers
  3. Defining legal framework for crypto-asset service providers (CASPs)
  4. Topics that MiCA 1.0 didn’t cover e.g., DeFi and prediction markets

Stablecoin discussion has regulatory consequences

Per Catarina Veloso, director of regulatory and compliance at Notabene, part 2, which would affect stablecoins, is “longest and arguably the most politically charged section of the consultation.”

How stablecoins are used, be it as a mainstream retail payment instrument, a wholesale settlement rail, or a “complement to existing payment methods for cross-border payments,” could have a significant effect on how stablecoin policy is made.

“If stablecoins are treated mainly as crypto trading instruments, the focus is likely to remain on investor protection and market integrity. If they are treated as payment infrastructure, then redemption, liquidity, reserve management, operational resilience and supervisory reporting become much more central.”

What risks they carry “depend heavily on how they are used, at what scale, by whom, and in connection with which parts of the financial system.”

Harries said that Coinbase would like to see MiCA 2.0 “make euro stablecoins more competitive by recalibrating rules around reserves, rewards and the multi-issuance model.” Allowing a greater share of stablecoin reserves to be held in “high-quality sovereign assets could reduce risk without compromising safety.”

Another aspect is stablecoin rewards. Currently, EMT issuers are prohibited from offering interest. But, per Veloso, “this can weaken the competitiveness of euro-denominated stablecoins and push users either toward foreign-currency stablecoins or toward yield structures outside the regulated perimeter.”

Harries said that “MiCA should allow non-interest incentives such as cashback and loyalty programmes, which are standard features across payments and help drive competition and consumer choice.”

Bringing DeFi and prediction markets into the fold

Presently, MiCA does not cover CASPs that are fully decentralized and operate without any kind of intermediary. Veloso noted that, while it sounds simple, “decentralisation is rarely binary.”

To form an informed policy around DeFi, EU regulators must know how to assess whether a CASP is fully decentralized and “what indicators should matter: control over the protocol, governance rights, admin keys, front-end control, revenue capture, upgradeability, or the ability of identifiable persons to influence outcomes.”

According to Miroslav Đurić, a senior associate at Taylor Wessing, many CAPSs already connect their clients with DeFi platforms. But since these platforms are exempt from MiCA, regulators are now asking “whether CASPs should meet their fiduciary duty vis-à-vis clients by conducting due diligence over DeFi platforms that they make accessible to their clients.”

“The Commission appears to be ready to explore different approaches incl. some that might only permit CASPs to connect their clients with DeFi platforms that are certified (under some new certification regime).”

Prediction markets are also a hot topic currently considered in the EU. Currently there is no unified regulatory structure, and prediction markets are banned in some countries. 

The Commission is seeking comments on whether these offer any economic benefit for consumers, and whether they fall under MiCA or Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFD).

Đurić said this will depend on the nature of the contracts themselves. “Depending on the event contracts available on the platform […] a platform operator can easily become subject to requirements stipulated under different, sometimes conflicting regulatory frameworks: ranging from MiFID II over gambling to MiCA regulatory framework.”

What’s next?

Crypto industry observers say they intend to remain in dialogue with Brussels throughout the process. Harries said that a new, effective MiCA will require “dialogue between industry, policymakers and regulators, learning from how the framework is working in practice and refining areas where greater clarity or flexibility can help support the next phase of growth across the region.”

The period for comment ends on Aug. 31, but according to Đurić, the total process could take years. 

“Given the level of complexity of the points raised in the consultation as well as the usual pace at which the EU legislative process moves […] it is hardly expectable that any concrete legislative proposals will be adopted before 2028.”

AI is making crypto security cheaper, faster and harder to ignore

info@uweb3.io
-
0
AI is making crypto security cheaper, faster and harder to ignore

Urbelis said he believes AI could eventually reshape the standard of care around smart contract development. Historically, teams could point to the cost and complexity of audits as a reason certain reviews were not performed. That argument becomes more difficult when sophisticated security analysis is available on demand.

“A clean AI report will be seen as no defense,” he said. “A plaintiff may well argue it the other way: the tool existed, it was cheap, and you should have caught it.”

The prospect raises broader questions for the industry: if AI-powered security reviews become ubiquitous, will investors expect them before funding projects, and could failing to run AI-assisted audits eventually be viewed as negligence?

Despite the technology’s promise, neither researcher said he believes AI is poised to replace human auditors.

While machines excel at identifying coding flaws, Urbelis said they remain weaker at spotting the economic and incentive-based vulnerabilities that have contributed to some of crypto’s largest losses. “The bugs that drain treasuries often turn on intent and adversarial incentives,” he said. “Those still need an experienced human in the room.”

Schwed offered a similar warning. “‘Claude, audit my smart contract, make no mistakes’ is not a security program,” he said. “If the person running the tool can’t evaluate what comes back, you haven’t bought security, you’ve bought a false sense of it.”

A look at how falling Bitcoin prices, capital structure changes pushed STRC below $83 in just five weeks.

info@uweb3.io
-
0
A look at how falling Bitcoin prices, capital structure changes pushed STRC below $83 in just five weeks.

May 26: The company confirmed it had used its cash reserve to finance the bond repurchase. The transaction had reduced the fund to $871 million.

The buyback reduced that reserve to roughly six months of STRC dividend coverage. The company had previously said the plan was to maintain about 24 months of dividend coverage.

STRC traded at $99.33, bitcoin hovered around $77,000.

June 1: Strategy sold 32 BTC, its first bitcoin sale since 2022. The move appeared intended to demonstrate that the company was willing and able to sell the token if necessary to fund dividend obligations.

The sale accounted for just 0.0038% of the company’s holdings. Nevertheless, the company’s common stock (MSTR) dropped 5.9% and bitcoin fell to as low as $70,500 before closing at $71,286. STRC closed at $98.07.

June 5: Bitcoin fell below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024, closing around $61,000, according to CoinDesk data. STRC dropped to as low as $90 to end the day at $93.40.

June 8: Strategy shareholders approve the plan to pay STRC dividends twice a month. Strategy bought 1,550 BTC and said the balance of its dollar reserve had risen to $1 billion.

June 15: Strategy bought another 1,587 BTC and said the balance of its dollar reserve was now $1.1 billion.

Crypto Kidnappers Plead Guilty in $8M Minnesota Robbery

info@uweb3.io
-
0
Crypto Kidnappers Plead Guilty in $8M Minnesota Robbery

Two brothers accused of kidnapping a Minnesota family at gunpoint last year to steal $8 million in cryptocurrency pleaded guilty in connection with the armed robbery. 

Isiah Angelo Garcia and Raymond Christian Garcia, on Thursday, entered guilty pleas for Interference with Commerce by Robbery, facing a maximum of 20 years in federal prison, according to the US Attorney’s Office of the District of Minnesota. 

“The guilty pleas entered today reflect our commitment to holding the defendants accountable for the choices they made,” US Attorney Daniel Rosen said.  

Global crypto wrench attacks have skyrocketed in recent years. In February, CertiK found that the number of crypto-related assaults and kidnappings increased 75% in 2025 from the previous year. Estimated losses in the first four months of 2026 from such attacks have already reached $101 million. 

Garcia brothers steal $8 million in crypto

Prosecutors said on Sept. 19, 2025, the two brothers traveled to Minnesota from Texas to hold a victim and his family at gunpoint, forcing him to transfer cryptocurrency from his online accounts and hardware wallets. 

The ordeal left the victim’s wife and son held for nine hours in their family home, while the victim was taken to a family cabin about three hours away and was ultimately forced to transfer $8 million in cryptocurrency. 

Isiah Angelo Garcia (left) and Raymond Christian Garcia (right). Source: Waller County, Texas, Sheriff’s Office

Police were alerted to the kidnapping after the victim’s son was able to make an emergency call, which was answered by Washington County sheriff’s deputies. Deputies later found a rifle and a shotgun, which, along with surveillance footage and other evidence, connected the brothers to the burglary. 

Crypto attackers plead guilty 

In their guilty pleas, both defendants admitted to using firearms to threaten the victims in order to rob them. They have agreed to pay more than $8 million in restitution. Sentencing hearings have not yet been scheduled. 

The latest development adds a win for US prosecutors in a global fight against criminals who target crypto owners. 

Related: Accused attackers of Sandbox exec’s wife tried to flee via Uber

In May, US authorities unsealed an indictment against three men accused of stealing at least $6.5 million in a “violent robbery spree targeting cryptocurrency owners.” 

The robberies involved the three defendants allegedly posing as delivery drivers to force their way into residences and use violence to extract cryptocurrency from their victims. 

 The increase in global attacks has drawn the attention of the French government. 

During Paris Blockchain Week in April, Jean-Didier Berger, Minister Delegate to the Interior Minister of France, said his office has taken “preventive measures” against crypto wrench attacks, including launching a prevention platform that has drawn thousands of sign-ups.  

Magazine: The end of anon? AI could unmask crypto’s hidden identities

Ethereum Foundation Loses Second Co-Executive Director as Hsiao-Wei Wang Steps Down

info@uweb3.io
-
0
Ethereum Foundation Loses Second Co-Executive Director as Hsiao-Wei Wang Steps Down

Hsiao-Wei Wang resigned as co-executive director and board member of the Ethereum Foundation on Thursday after a sabbatical, the second co-ED exit at the Switzerland-based nonprofit in four months and the latest in a five-month wave of senior departures.

Hsiao-Wei Wang resigned as co-executive director and board member of the Ethereum Foundation on Thursday, the second co-ED exit at the Switzerland-based nonprofit in four months. Her departure deepens a leadership turnover that has been running through the organization since the spring.

Wang announced the move in a post on X, saying a recent sabbatical “gave me space to reflect on my priorities and the kind of life I want to build next” and that the time had brought her to “the right moment for me to step back.” She framed the decision around staying closer to home while remaining part of the broader Ethereum community. Board member Bastian Aue, who oversaw the leadership transition during Wang’s sabbatical, has taken on a larger role guiding the organization in the interim.

Wang joined the foundation’s research team in 2017 and was elevated to co-executive director in early 2025. Across roughly nine years she contributed to consensus and protocol-coordination work spanning the Beacon Chain, The Merge, Shapella and Dencun Co-founder Vitalik Buterin called the co-ED slot “perhaps the most challenging position in the Ethereum Foundation, at one of the most challenging times for Ethereum.”

Leadership Reset

Wang’s exit follows fellow co-executive director Tomasz Stańczak, who announced his departure in February. At least eight senior figures have left the foundation over the past five months, a sequence Defiant has tracked through coverage of the Josh Stark and Trent Van Epps exits in April and the wider EF exodus reshaping the organization. Buterin in May outlined a smaller, more focused foundation as the response, framing the shrinkage as deliberate rather than reactive.

The departure lands alongside a separately reported funding warning. Former EF coordinator Trent Van Epps estimates a roughly $30 million annual gap covering client teams, researchers and protocol-coordination groups within a three-to-nine-month window. He attributes the gap to the Client Incentive Program having expired in April with no announced replacement, alongside the foundation’s revised treasury policy. That claim sits adjacent to the leadership news rather than inside it; the foundation has issued no public statement on Wang’s exit beyond her own post.

Bitcoin Surfs Hawkish Fed, New Iran Cues With Price tapping $63,000

info@uweb3.io
-
0
Bitcoin Surfs Hawkish Fed, New Iran Cues With Price tapping $63,000

Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $63,000 on Friday as markets adjusted to geopolitical and macro changes.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin takes a time-out near week-to-date lows after a broadly hawkish Fed interest-rate meeting.
  • US-Iran tensions slowly resurface with the Strait of Hormuz oil route in the firing line.
  • A trader suggests that a “black swan” event could still come in this Bitcoin bear market.

BTC price lack upside momentum after hawkish Fed cues

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD locked in a tight trading range on low time frames after dropping to eight-day lows.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Weakness had entered after the US Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate decision, which sparked a broader risk-asset comedown.

Wednesday’s meeting on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was the first for new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, who avoided giving traders dovish signals on future policy.

“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy,” he said in a statement after a unanimous board decision to keep rates at current levels. 

“The Committee will deliver price stability.”

Warsh’s tone was unusual, as expectations had seen him being accommodating to US President Donald Trump’s insistence on rate cuts. He also cut the FOMC statement length considerably, using drier language than former chair, Jerome Powell.

“We will have far less information going forward,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter reacted in a post on X, noting that Warsh had also “dropped” its forward guidance.

“He even hinted that the ‘dot plot’ could be changed or eliminated along with all forms of Fed communication, such as the policy statement and press conferences. In other words, the market will now have less Fed outlook which means more uncertainty.”

Fed target rate probabilities for July 29 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets pricing in a near 40% chance of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in late July.

Bitcoin “black swan” back on the radar

With US markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday, meanwhile, Bitcoin and crypto were alone in digesting the latest developments in the US-Iran war.

Related: Bitcoin tipped for Q3 ‘macro bottom’ near $50K as major liquidity grab looms

Despite signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU), the two sides appeared far from aligned on the future road map, with Iran once more eyeing the newly reopened Strait of Hormuz oil route.

Citing Bloomberg, Kobeissi reported that traffic “cannot cross the Strait of Hormuz without its permission.”

“The MoU signed with the US only says that transit through the Strait of Hormuz would be free for the duration of its 60 day term,” it explained on Friday. 

“It appears Iran is preparing for long-term control of Hormuz.”

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

WTI crude oil continued to circle $75 per barrel on the day after hitting its lowest levels since early March.

Amid the lull in risk-asset volatility, trader and analyst Rekt Capital hinted that Bitcoin bulls’ true test is yet to come.

“There tends to be a Black Swan event in the second half of Bitcoin Bear Markets. Lesson there,” he told X followers.

CME Group to Sue CFTC Over Perpetual Futures Approval, Citing Dodd-Frank Swaps Definition

info@uweb3.io
-
0
CME Group to Sue CFTC Over Perpetual Futures Approval, Citing Dodd-Frank Swaps Definition

The world’s largest derivatives exchange operator said Wednesday it will sue the CFTC over the agency’s approval of Kalshi’s bitcoin perpetual futures, arguing the contracts should be classified as swaps under the Dodd-Frank Act.

CME Group plans to sue the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over the agency’s approval of crypto perpetual futures, the world’s largest derivatives exchange operator announced Wednesday evening on CNBC. Outgoing Chief Executive Terrence Duffy said the case would be filed as soon as Thursday and would argue the contracts should be regulated as swaps under the Dodd-Frank Act.

Duffy disclosed the plan in a Fast Money interview on Wednesday and said CME had spent eight months preparing the challenge with its board. The suit targets the CFTC’s late-May approval of Kalshi’s BTCPERP contract and a parallel action clearing Coinbase to route US customers to its offshore Deribit affiliate. CME later confirmed the filing plan to CNBC. A CFTC spokesperson called the planned action “frivolous.”

The statutory theory turns on a definitional line drawn in the Dodd-Frank Act. The Commodity Exchange Act defines a futures contract by reference to a delivery or expiration date. Perpetual contracts have neither; the two sides exchange periodic funding payments to keep the contract price tethered to spot.

“Under the Dodd-Frank Act, it clearly defines what a swap is and what a future is, and when there’s two parties exchanging payments to each other, that’s deemed a swap,” Duffy said on the broadcast. He said the funding-rate mechanism brings perpetuals inside the swap definition.

Swaps and Futures Distinction

That distinction is not cosmetic. Swaps and futures sit under different sections of the Commodity Exchange Act, with different clearing, reporting, and margin regimes. Federal margin rules require a five-day margin period of risk for cleared swaps and a one-day window for futures, a gap that determines collateral economics for any venue listing the product.

Christopher Perkins, CEO of Coinbase Asset Management, posted on X that a swap designation would likely keep perpetuals offshore because more than twice the margin would be required for basic compliance. He has called the suit incumbent defense.

The procedural attack is narrower. The CFTC cleared Kalshi’s BTCPERP on May 29 under Section 40.2 self-certification, a rule that lets a designated contract market list a new product on one business day’s notice. Duffy says the longer Section 40.3 review, which opens a public-comment window, applies to novel and complex products.

“They did the review in less than 24 hours, which is a 40.2 self-certification for a novel and complex product, which troubled me,” Duffy said at the Piper Sandler Global Exchange and Trading Conference on June 4, per a Markets Media account. The suit is expected to challenge the agency’s use of the faster track.

CFTC Chair Michael Selig has defended both approvals. “It’s time to approve regulated futures contracts that have no expiration date,” he told CNBC’s Fast Money earlier this week, per a Bitcoin Magazine account of the broadcast. The agency followed the May approval with a June 13 no-action letter giving designated contract markets a path to convert existing perpetual-style futures into true perpetuals.

The competitive stakes for CME are direct. CME runs the dominant US crypto futures complex, with bitcoin and ether contracts capped at roughly 5-to-1 leverage and dated quarterly settlement. Kalshi’s BTCPERP and Coinbase’s routing arrangement open onshore access to a product that has driven the bulk of offshore crypto trading for years, often at 20-to-50 times leverage in regulated venues and higher elsewhere.

Exclusive Licenses

Duffy said CME holds exclusive licenses on the crypto-market benchmarks that competing contracts would reference. “All of these would have to go through CME regardless of the perpetual,” he said. Kalshi’s contract is now live, and the prediction-market venue filed in early June to add perpetuals on 12 altcoins beyond bitcoin.

A court ruling reclassifying the products as swaps would force the venue and its competitors into a different rulebook mid-rollout, with new compliance costs and the possibility of temporary delisting while the regime is rewritten. Such an outcome would also reach Coinbase’s Deribit-routed offering and any DCM that converts under the June no-action path.

The litigation lands in a term already marked by venue fights at the CFTC. A federal judge in the Western District of Michigan on Wednesday denied Polymarket a preliminary injunction against state regulators and ruled that sports-related prediction-market wagers are not swaps and fall outside CFTC jurisdiction.

Judge Paul L. Maloney wrote that the agency’s interpretation of its own authority was “so vast that it would encompass vast swaths of activity never understood to be associated with the financial industry.” The language lands awkwardly for the agency as it heads into a separate swaps-classification fight with its largest registered exchange.

CME Succession

The timing also threads through CME’s own succession. The same day Duffy announced the suit, the company named CFO Lynne Fitzpatrick as his successor. Duffy hands over the chief executive role on March 1, 2027 and stays on as executive chairman. That puts the lawsuit in Fitzpatrick’s inbox before she takes the chair.

Duffy’s earlier critique of US-regulated perpetuals as “a disaster waiting to happen” framed the venue’s policy posture; the filing converts that posture into a legal claim. Katherine Kirkpatrick Bos, general counsel of Starkware, wrote on X that the CFTC’s position on perpetuals is sound and that she did not expect CME to prevail.

Court venue and named defendants will publish with the filing itself. CME has not disclosed which district it intends to file in, the named CFTC officers, or whether the action will be a direct petition for review of the agency’s order or a broader administrative-procedure challenge.

Sonic Labs Founders Including Andre Cronje Quit Board as New CEO Pledges to Get ‘1% Better’ Daily

info@uweb3.io
-
0
Sonic Labs Founders Including Andre Cronje Quit Board as New CEO Pledges to Get ‘1% Better’ Daily

Andre Cronje, Michael Kong and David Richardson are stepping down from the board of the Layer 1 blockchain, whose token has fallen about 97% from its peak, as Matt Visser takes over as CEO

Sonic Labs said its three founding board members — Andre Cronje, Michael Kong and David Richardson — are resigning from the board, and named Matt Visser as chief executive officer and Kosta Kourkoumelis as chief operating officer, in a leadership overhaul at the blockchain network whose token and onchain activity have collapsed over the past year. The company disclosed the changes in a post on X.

Sonic’s S token traded at about $0.031, near a fully diluted valuation of $120 million, down roughly 97% from its January 2025 record of $1.03, according to CoinGecko data. The token fell about 30% over the past 30 days, compared with a 19% decline in Bitcoin over the same period. Total value locked on Sonic, a measure of the assets deposited in its DeFi protocols, stood at about $20 million, down some 98% from a peak of $1.14 billion in May 2025, according to DefiLlama.

The reshuffle removes from business decision-making the figures who built the network — Cronje, the DeFi developer behind Yearn Finance who steered Fantom’s rebrand into Sonic, chief among them — and pairs that exit with public commitments to transparency, compliance and rebuilding holder trust. It caps a leadership unwind that has run for more than a year at a network that once ranked among the larger Layer 1 ecosystems by deposits.

A board-led structure unravels

Cronje, Kong and Richardson “remain invested in Sonic’s success” and are handing off their responsibilities in full, the company said, adding that the three “will no longer make business decisions for the organization.”

The departures complete a turnover that began in late 2025. Sonic Labs, formerly the Fantom Foundation, appointed Mitchell Demeter as CEO in September 2025, with Kong moving to chief information officer and Cronje serving as chief technology officer. Demeter and business head Evan Owens resigned in February 2026, after which the board — including Cronje and Kong — took over operations directly. Visser and Kourkoumelis now replace that board-led structure.

Visser said his priority is “operational discipline and earning back trust, in that order,” rather than a roadmap reveal.

“I am not here to promise an instant turnaround,” Visser said in the announcement. “I am here to make Sonic 1% better every single day and let that compound.”

Acknowledging the slide

The company did not frame the changes as a recovery, instead stating plainly that “the token is down” and “community sentiment is down,” and saying it would not spin the position.

Sonic laid out four commitments: publishing decisions and the reasoning behind them; standing up a dedicated risk and compliance committee; treating S holders as stakeholders rather than “a vanity metric”; and cutting back on announcements in favor of plainer updates. It directed disclosures and concerns to a dedicated email address.

Sonic said its engineering output did not slow through the leadership changes. The company reported 400 pull requests merged into its main GitHub branch so far in 2026, two official releases shipped, a 2.2.0 release in active development with six release candidates, and a private testnet under testing.

Cronje remains tied to the ecosystem through Flying Tulip, the DeFi exchange he is building on Sonic, which raised capital at a $1 billion valuation earlier this year even as the S token slid — a split between his new venture’s valuation and the network’s that the board change does not resolve.

Visser and Kourkoumelis are largely untested in public-facing leadership of a network this size, and the “1% better” framing sets no measurable near-term targets against which holders can judge progress.

Sonic said it would be judged as a team over the next 100 days. Whether onchain deposits and token holders return will be the clearest test of whether the new leadership’s pledges translate into activity.

1...107108109...1,254Page 108 of 1,254