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President Donald Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair

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President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the new chair of the Federal Reserve.

The President confirmed his pick in a post on Truth Social on Friday to replace the incumbent Jerome Powell when his term ends in May.

Warsh served on the U.S. central bank’s Board of Governors between 2006 and 2011, the youngest person to ever do so.

He was considered the frontrunner to be Trump’s pick, something which may have played a part in bitcoin’s dive to nearly $81,000 late Thursday, as odds of Warsh’s nomination spiked on betting sites.

Warsh was an investor in a cryptocurrency project called Basis, which described itself as an algorithmic central bank. He has also served as an adviser for Electric Capital, a VC firm focused on crypto, blockchain and fintech.

However, his appointment his considered by some to be bearish for risk assets such as BTC given his emphasis on monetary discipline, which could mean higher real interest rates.

Bitcoin enjoyed a brief 0.7% lift immediately after Trump’s announcement before returning to the $82,600 mark it sat at previously, according to CoinDesk data.

UPDATE (Jan. 30, 12:25 UTC): Adds more detail and context throughout.

Tumbling market sets giants into ‘plunge protection’ mode: Crypto Daybook Americas

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:Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto market’s beating on Thursday spurred industry heavyweights into “plunge protection” mode, a term for coordinated moves to steady a sinking ship.

As bitcoin neared $81,000, the lowest since November, and analysts warned of a deeper drop, Binance sprang into action. The largest crypto exchange by volume traded said it will switch its user protection fund into bitcoin from stablecoins and, more importantly, buy BTC to replenish the fund back to $1 billion if the value fell below $800 million.

Crypto billionaire and Tron founder Justin Sun acknowledged Binance’s effort, announcing on X that Tron will also buy more bitcoin in the future.

These moves are likely aimed at calming market nerves and, potentially, putting a floor under BTC prices. But traditional markets teach us that such efforts can be overpowered by broader forces. For instance, how many times has the Bank of Japan’s intervention failed to stem the yen’s slide?

In other words, the market needs a clear bullish catalyst to stabilize and the odds appear stacked against that. Dollar liquidity is tightening, as noted by Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes, and the rise of Kevin Warsh, a former hawkish Fed official who cited inflation risks after the 2008 crash, as a preferred candidate for the central bank’s chairmanship, is seen as a generally adverse development for BTC and other risk assets. Still, though a hawk, Warsh has on occasion spoken positively about bitcoin and has had investments in crypto adjacent projects in the past.

Bitcoin has shown no respite so far. It recently traded near $82,700, slightly up from overnight lows, but still down over 6% on a 24-hour basis. Other major tokens, ether , XRP , solana , , and BNB , posted similar losses.

At the same time, BTC’s market dominance slipped to 59.16%. This might signal altcoins’ relative resilience from underlying demand, setting them up for a big move higher once sentiment stabilizes. But that’s not necessarily true: Altcoins underperformed throughout bitcoin’s bull run from early 2023 to October 2025, with limited participation, it might be they’re simply holding up better as the bull market unravels.

In traditional markets, precious metals like gold and silver, plus industrial copper, have pulled back sharply from record highs. Analysts noted earlier this month that once these trends run out of steam, money could rotate back to crypto. We’ll see if that plays out. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • Jan. 30, 5 a.m.: European Economic Area GDP growth rate YoY (Flash) for Q4 (Prev. 1.4%), QoQ (Flash) (Prev. 0.3%)
    • Jan. 30, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. PPI YoY for December (Prev. 3%), Core PPI YoY (Prev 3%)
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Jan. 30: Conflux Network to host its quarterly community call.
    • GMX DAO is voting on a two-year funding framework for GMX Labs, establishing an annual operating budget of $7 million–$9 million sourced from V2 protocol fees. Voting ends Jan. 30.
  • Unlocks
    • Jan. 30: to unlock 3.68% of its circulating supply worth $11.22 million.
    • Feb. 1: to unlock 1.15% of its circulating supply worth $65.29 million.
    • Feb. 1: EigenLayer (EIGEN) to unlock 8.88% of its circulating supply worth $12.53 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Jan. 30: Kindred Labs (KIN) to be listed on Binance Alpha, KuCoin, and others.
    • Feb. 1: Story Foundation’s planned IP token buyback program ends.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 2.49% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $82,293.08 (24hrs: -5.69%)
  • ETH is down 3.37% at $2,720.41 (24hrs: -6.45%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 2.9% at 2,499.34 (24hrs: -5.92%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 6 bps at 2.87%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0009% (1.0063% annualized) on Binance
  • DXY is up 0.33% at 96.60
  • Gold futures are down 4.61% at $5,108.00
  • Silver futures are down 12.69% at $99.90
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 0.1% at 53,322.85
  • Hang Seng closed down 2.08% at 27,387.11
  • FTSE is up 0.16% at 10,188.28
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.58% at 5,926.34
  • DJIA closed on Thursday up 0.11% at 49,071.56
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.13% at 6,969.01
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.72% at 23,685.12
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.48% at 33,016.13
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.24% at 3,760.03
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 3 bps at 4.257%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.75% at 6,940.50
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.87% at 25,773.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.72% at 48,815.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 59.29% (-0.09%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03305 (-0.85%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 837 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $36.83
  • Total fees: 2.74 BTC / $236,749
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 117,145 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 16.1 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 5.54%

Technical Analysis

Weekly swings in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield in candlestick format. (TradingView)

U.S. 10-year yield. (TradingView)

  • The chart shows weekly swings in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield since late 2024.
  • The yield has risen over two basis points to 2.27% this week, testing the bearish trendline characterizing a year-long decline.
  • A move past this trendline would confirm what analysts call a bullish breakout — a sign that the downtrend is over and more gains lie ahead.
  • Continued hardening of the yield could dent the appeal of stocks and other risky assets.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $199.18 (-4.89%), -2.63% at $193.95 in pre-market
  • Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $67.55 (-7.26%), -2.16% at $66.09
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $29.96 (-6.08%), -3.81% at $28.82
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $32.66 (-4.86%), -2.63% at $31.80
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.86 (-4.92%), -3.45% at $9.52
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.97 (-3.30%), -3.71% at $16.34
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.84 (-3.34%), -2.97% at $18.28
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.59 (-6.39%), -4.61% at $12.01
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $48.74 (-5.12%), -2.67% at $47.44
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $13.98 (-2.44%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $143.19 (-9.63%), -3.45% at $138.25
  • Strive (ASST): closed at $0.79 (-2.00%), -2.93% at $0.76
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.37 (-6.02%), -3.42% at $9.05
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.83 (-6.63%)
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.25 (-4.58%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$817.8 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $55.5 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$155.7 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $12.26 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~6.05 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

Tether reports $10B profit in 2025 as USDT circulation surges past $186B

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Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, reported more than $10 billion in net profit for 2025 as USDT circulation climbed above $186 billion by year’s end, according to its Q4 2025 attestation report.

Total reserves rose to nearly $193 billion, continuing to exceed liabilities, with excess reserves reaching $6.3 billion.

Nearly $50 billion in new USDT was issued during 2025, with roughly $30 billion minted in the second half alone as demand surged across payments, trading, and emerging markets.

Tether’s exposure to US Treasuries reached fresh records, with direct holdings exceeding $122 billion and total Treasury exposure topping $141 billion. The figures place the company among the world’s largest holders of US government debt.

The company’s gold division has also expanded rapidly as bullion prices reached all-time highs. Tether Gold (XAUT) surpassed $2 billion in market capitalization, accounting for more than half of all gold-backed tokens in circulation.

CEO Paolo Ardoino said USDT’s growth reflects rising global demand for dollars outside traditional banking systems, adding that USD₮, with its network effect and parabolic growth, has become the most widely adopted monetary social network in history.

What long-term DEI efforts mean for business outcomes

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Over the last couple of years, DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion) has become synonymous with right-wing media and criticisms of hiring practices accused of being focused on demographics over merit – on both sides of the political spectrum. While the validity of these claims has frequently been argued over and perhaps oversimplified, it has opened up a larger question: is hiring and recruitment inherently political?

Editorial

This content has been selected, created and edited by the Finextra editorial team based upon its relevance and interest to our community.

“I think the answer is yes. I’m going to go one step further and say I think it should be, but not necessarily in the way that you think,” said Samantha Emery, a Financial Services Executive and NED in a FinextraTV interview. She continued to say, “If you look at the origins of the word political, it comes from the ancient Greek. It was all about tying people to place and the systems that you needed to achieve best outcomes for all.

“I think what we’ve lost over the centuries, over the millennia, is that notion of best outcomes for all. It’s almost – today – seen as a pejorative. Best outcomes for some, arguably often those in power, those in the majority groupings. And that’s where it becomes problematic when you’re talking about things like recruitment.”

Emery says that this definition of politics, which she associates with recruitment, should be seen through this lens as an obligation, not an optional consideration. Alongside Emery, Nadia Edwards-Dashti, co-founder and chief customer officer, Harrington Starr, agrees about how these considerations go further than just the hiring decisions:

“I always say to people: you are hired every day, whether it is the next big project, whether it’s that promotion that Sam spoke about, whether it’s leading something within a team; and when people start to get stifled, whether that’s through redundancy, whether that’s through being overlooked, undervalued, things start to change within the business.”

Speaking to the apprehension of being involved in so-called ‘culture wars’, Emery suggests that these perspectives are reductive: “It has not been, and it should never have been about culture wars. It is very much a conversation around both business outcomes and business issues and sectoral outcomes, and I think that’s really important to remember.”

She continued: “There are practical implications of cultural homogeneity. Whether it’s how your governance functions and what you get out of it, to the products that you’re able to design and put out to market; your ability to serve to the consumer population at large and ultimately achieve positive impact in the sector. Again, is not going to be as well prepared as those who are engaging in this thoughtfully.”

“So, if you talk to me about what is the risk of complacency, it’s multi-part, but you’re talking about business sustainability, you’re talking about risk management, and you’re talking about positive sectoral impact,” Emery concluded.

Watch the full FinextraTV interview where Edwards-Dashti and Emery go on to explore how businesses can reevaluate how they approach their recruitment and retention activities, and further expand on how long-term DEI efforts inevitably sustain business longevity.

XRP-linked firm rolls out platform after $1 billion GTreasury deal

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Blockchain-based payments firm Ripple launched a new enterprise product, Ripple Treasury, earlier this week that’s aimed at helping companies manage traditional cash and digital assets within a single system, following its $1 billion acquisition of treasury software firm GTreasury last year.

The platform allows corporate finance teams to move money across borders using Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin, settling payments in three to five seconds instead of the three to five business days typical for bank wires.

Ripple says the system is designed to reduce idle capital and simplify liquidity management for global firms.

Ripple Treasury integrates directly with corporate treasury workflows through APIs, pulling balances and transactions from digital asset platforms into the same dashboards used for cash, debt and short-term investments.

The idea is to let firms treat crypto rails as an extension of their existing banking infrastructure, rather than a separate system managed manually.

Beyond payments, the platform connects users to overnight repo markets and tokenized money-market funds, including BlackRock’s BUIDL. That allows companies to earn yield on excess cash around the clock, instead of parking funds in bank accounts that stop operating outside business hours.

The launch marks Ripple’s first major product release since acquiring Chicago-based GTreasury in October, a deal that brought decades of enterprise treasury experience into the company.

Ripple is also leaning on infrastructure from Hidden Road, the prime brokerage it bought last year, to provide access to short-term funding markets.

Polymarket, Kalshi contract limits demonstrated in latest U.S. government shutdown fight

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The U.S. government is set to partially shut down at midnight, despite the Senate voting in favor of a funding package intended to keep the government running — showing the importance of specificity in prediction market contracts.

The House of Representatives is out of session this week, and will not be back until Monday. Because the House needs to pass the package the Senate voted on Friday evening, this means that the government will technically shut down at 12:00 a.m. ET Saturday, and likely remain shut through the weekend. It’s just a partial shutdown and should not have a significant effect on U.S. residents.

In this way, the shutdown differs radically from the previous U.S. government shutdown, which was the longest in the nation’s history and saw federal employees go unpaid for well over a month while lawmakers negotiated over forthcoming healthcare premium increases.

Polymarket and Kalshi contracts letting users bet on whether the government will shut down or not ranged in how exactly they defined a government shutdown, demonstrating the importance of specificity for these event contracts.

“This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No,'” one contract read. Under the terms of this contract, a partial shutdown qualifies as a shutdown, but importantly, it is dependent on OPM announcing a shutdown.

Earlier Friday evening, it gave the odds as being 88%, having climbed steadily from 40% over the past 24 hours despite reporting from Thursday making it clear that the House would not be able to vote before Monday.

A similar Kalshi contract likewise pointed to OPM as its way of verifying the outcome of the bet. The odds of a shutdown were 93% at press time, having climbed from 44% over the past 24 hours.

OPM’s media response email did not immediately return a request for comment on whether it would announce a shutdown.

Other bets were more specific. One Polymarket contract allowed users to bet how long the government might remain closed, with one, two and three-plus days all seeing 90%+ chances at press time. A Kalshi counterpart suggested bettors gave “more than [two] days” over 90% odds.

Yet another Polymarket contract asking whether government funding would lapse on January 31 stood at a 99.6% chance at press time, defining a lapse as “the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding” by 11:59 p.m. ET on Friday night — which, again, he can’t do until the House votes on the package on Monday.

JPMorgan’s Dimon Blasts Coinbase CEO :‘You’re Full Of Sh—’

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Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase, found himself at the eye of a widening storm between Wall Street and the crypto industry last week at the World Economic Forum in Davos — and it got personal. 

During a chance encounter over coffee with former U.K. prime minister Tony Blair, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon abruptly cut in, pointing a finger and telling Armstrong bluntly, “You are full of s—,” according to reporting from The Wall Street Journal. The outburst underscored some of the raw tensions happening between traditional banks and crypto firms over the future of U.S. financial regulation.

The confrontation, described by some attendees as uncharacteristically heated for the annual gathering of global elites, followed Armstrong’s series of television appearances earlier in the week. 

On business networks, he accused big banks of trying to sabotage key provisions of the Senate’s Clarity Act — a crypto market-structure bill that could redefine how digital assets are regulated and whether exchanges can offer interest-like rewards on stablecoins. 

Armstrong argued that banks are using legislative muscle to stifle competition rather than compete fairly in a free market.

At the heart of the dispute is the issue of yield. Coinbase and others offer rewards on stablecoins — digital tokens pegged to the U.S. dollar — that can return about 3.5% to holders. Traditional banks, by contrast, pay near-zero on checking and savings accounts. 

Banking executives say allowing crypto platforms to offer such returns is economically indistinguishable from interest on bank deposits and could trigger a mass shift of consumer funds out of the banking system. They warn community banks might struggle to lend to businesses if deposits erode.

Coinbase’s role in crypto legislation 

Armstrong’s advocacy comes as the Clarity Act faces legislative gridlock. The Senate Banking Committee abruptly postponed a markup and vote after Coinbase withdrew its support for the bill, calling the current draft “materially worse than the status quo” because of its restrictions on stablecoin yields and other concerns. 

At Davos, other bank chiefs reportedly kept their distance. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan reportedly told Armstrong that if Coinbase wants to offer deposit-like products, “just be a bank,” pointing to the extensive regulatory oversight traditional deposit takers face. 

Citigroup’s Jane Fraser offered the Coinbase chief only a brief audience, and Wells Fargo’s Charlie Scharf declined to engage at all.

The clash highlights a broader struggle over how the U.S. financial system will evolve as crypto gains mainstream traction. Next week the White House will convene banking and crypto executives to discuss reviving stalled U.S. crypto legislation.

Infinex Token Launches at $300 Million Valuation

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The DeFi product suite and super app launched its token today.

Infinex, the wallet and tool suite led by Synthetix founder Kain Warwick, conducted its token generation event (TGE) today after concluding its initial coin offering (ICO) earlier this month.

The INX token debuted at a $330 million fully diluted valuation, or $0.033 per token, and has since dropped to $0.021 as airdrop recipients and ICO investors take profits, as is typical when new tokens launch.

Infinex functions as a decentralized super app, connecting dApps such as decentralized exchanges, bridges, and derivatives aggregators across more than 25 different blockchain networks, accounting for “85% of the top 100 assets on CoinGecko,” according to a release shared with The Defiant. Infinex plans to expand its token offerings throughout the first half of the year.

Looking ahead, the dApp plans to incorporate additional popular Web3 features, including support for prediction markets and NFT marketplaces, offering users an all-in-one alternative to the hundreds of dApps DeFi power users interact with today.

The dApp aggregates underlying dApps through its first-party applications, such as Infinex Perps and Infinex Predict, allowing users to share a single login across all supported applications.

The Infinex ICO concluded on Jan. 10 and raised a total of $7.2 million across more than 850 participants. In 2024, the protocol conducted its Patron NFT mint, which generated more than $67 million in sales and allowed each Patron NFT holder to claim 100,000 INX, worth roughly $3,300 at TGE.

In an interview with The Defiant, founder Kain Warwick emphasized the importance of approachable access, the modernization of non-custodial solutions, and the need to provide easy access to onchain ecosystems and assets.

“It’s a really straightforward thing: make it good, and people will use it. If it makes their life better, people will want to use a thing…And so our view with Infinex is [to] make all of these amazing things, Aave, Uniswap, Polymarket, all of these amazing protocols and platforms and applications that have been built over the last decade, as easy to use as Facebook or Instagram,” said Warwick.

Google’s AI-Powered Chrome Further Transforms Search

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Google’s integration of AI features into its Chrome browser this week illustrates how the vendor is turning the browser into an AI-powered assistant, furthering the evolution of search.

The tech giant, which specializes in search, cloud and AI services, launched a new side panel experience, along with other AI features in Chrome on Jan. 28. With the new side panel, Gemini users can have a browsing assistant at their side to compare options, summarize product reviews and find times for events. 

Gemini users can also access Nano Banana from within Chrome. Google also integrated Gmail, Calendar, YouTube, and Maps in Chrome so that users can complete tasks in the browser. The auto browse tool lets AI Pro and Ultra subscribers navigate the web, book flights and manage professional workflows, among other tasks.

The integration of AI features in Chrome exemplifies how agentic AI has grown within the browsing and search experience. With the traditional search model under threat, the rise of AI search engines such as Perplexity means search is more than a mode to find information. Instead, tools such Anthropic’s computer use and ChatGPT Atlas point to a search and browsing experience that includes the AI agent as the autonomous assistant.

Related:ServiceNow and Anthropic Disclose AI Deal

While the new features integrated into Chrome are similar to the agentic features those included in Computer Use and Atlas, and even Anthropic’s most recent autonomous desktop agent, Claude Cowork, Google’s Gemini in Chrome pays homage to the traditional browsing experience.

“This kind of functionality, which honors the existing interface that we have come to know and love over the last 30 years, is a good thing,” said Bradley Shimmin, an analyst at Futurum Group. “It’s not saying just log into ChatGPT. Instead, go to the web, look at the web, use the web, and then take action where you are.”

Gemini in Chrome will feel familiar to enterprise users because Gemini is already built into the Google Workspace (formerly G Suite) platform. Those using Workspace are used to letting Gemini act on their behalf. However, users of third-party email or calendar systems will still be able to use the AI features introduced in Chrome to direct Gemini to take actions for them. This shows a greater move toward the use of autonomous tools within enterprises.

“We’ve been spending a lot of money over the last decade on trying to automate business processes, from the simplest things to the most complex, and it’s proven to be a very intractable and difficult,” Shimmin said. “This shows a lot of promise because it’s adaptable to any workflow, any process.”

Related:Navigating the Next Phase of GenAI: Predictions for 2026

One Obstacle

A challenge, though, is that while Gemini in Chrome includes security defenses, such as prompting auto browse to pause and asking for confirmation before completing some tasks, that’s not enough, Shimmin continued.

“There needs to be procedural protection, such as we have in the enterprise, for protecting things like personal and private information, where you’re not putting it in the hands of the user to make sure they don’t expose companies’ secrets,” he said. “You’re instead doing it in an auditable manner, and we’re nowhere near that with this stuff.” 

Bitcoin ‘Miner Exodus’ Risks Crashing BTC Price Below $60K

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A Bitcoin (BTC) metric tracking the electricity cost to mine one coin is flashing a warning for the bulls, with a so-called “miner exodus” adding to the bearish outlook.

Key takeaways:

  • BTC could fall toward the $59,000–$74,000 miner cost zone.

  • Big hash rate drops often precede rebounds toward Bitcoin’s energy value at $121,000.

Mining data hints BTC may decline below $60,000

As of January, the estimated average in electricity costs to mine a single Bitcoin is $59,450, while the net production expenditure is about $74,300, according to data from crypto-focused hedge fund Capriole Investments.

BTC/USD daily chart vs. production and electrical cost. Source: Capriole Investments

Bitcoin was trading at around $82,500 on Friday, still above the miners’ estimated costs.

Many miners can keep operating even if the price declines below the average cost. The market has room to fall toward the $74,300–$59,450 zone before they feel real pain, according to Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments.

“This has expanded the potential range for near-term downside,” he said, further citing an ongoing “Bitcoin miner exodus” behind the bearish outlook.

Related: Bitcoin loses crucial $84K support: How low can BTC price go?

Bitcoin’s hash rate dropped to mid-2025 levels at the end of January, with some analysts speculating that BTC miners reallocated their resources to power AI operations instead. In contrast, others blamed the US winter storm for the drop in BTC hash rates.

Bitcoin total hash rate (TH/s). Source: Blockchain.com

Hash rate dips could be bullish for Bitcoin

Bitcoin has seen hash rate drops before and bounced back, according to Jeff Feng, co-founder of Sei Labs.

When some miners shut down, the network lowers mining difficulty over time. That makes it easier and cheaper for the remaining miners to earn BTC, which stabilizes the network.

After China’s 2021 mining ban, for example, the hash rate fell about 50%, and BTC slid from around $64,000 to $29,000. But the price recovered to $69,000 within five months.

BTC/USDT vs. hash rate weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s fair price was around $120,950 as of Friday, according to its energy value, a metric that estimates Bitcoin’s fair value based on the network’s energy and production inputs.

Historically, BTC climbs back toward its energy value after a prolonged downtrend.

BTC/USD vs. energy value daily chart. Source: Capriole Investments

For Bitcoin, that suggests that the price could bottom around anywhere from $74,300 to $59,450, and any rebound can trigger a mean-reversion move toward the energy value price.