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Coinbase misses Q4 estimates as transaction revenue falls below $1 billion

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Coinbase (COIN) missed fourth-quarter earnings forecasts on Thursday, thanks to weaker trading activity and lower crypto asset prices.

The U.S.-based crypto exchange posted total revenue of $1.78 billion against estimates for $1.83 billion. Adjusted EPS of $0.66 was well lower than the consensus $0.86.

Total transaction revenue of $983 million was below forecasts for $1.02 billion and down from $1.046 billion in the third quarter and $1.556 billion in the fourth quarter one year ago.

Subscription revenue of $727.4 million was down from $746.7 million the previous quarter and up from $641.1 million a year earlier.

Through Feb. 10 of the first quarter, the company saw transaction revenue of about $420 million. It guided to full-quarter subscription revenue of $550-$630 million.

“We continue to be optimistic about the long-term trajectory of the crypto industry,” Coinbase said. “Crypto is cyclical, and experience tells us it’s never as good, or as bad as it seems. While asset prices can be volatile, under the surface an undercurrent of technological change and crypto product adoption continues.”

Shares are modestly higher in after-hours trading, but fell 7.9% during the regular session, extending year-to-date declines to 40%.

LatAm insurtech sector closes 2025 with 530+ companies

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Investment surged 117% year-on-year, reaching US$199 million in 2025, making it the third-
strongest year on record behind 2022 and 2021, widely considered LatAm’s investment boom years

– The ecosystem reached 536 insurtech start-ups, representing 7% net annual growth, while
the mortality rate improved to 8%, signaling a more resilient market

-The sector has transformed over four years: 48% of start-ups disappeared while 330 new
companies were created, with Brazil’s regional share declining from 33% to 28%

– Chile consolidated its position as the third-largest market, reaching 100 insurtechs (+25%),
behind Brazil and Mexico

-Technology enablers now dominate the ecosystem (51%), marking a structural shift away
from distribution-led models

The Latin American (LatAm) insurtech ecosystem continued its recovery and maturation in 2025,
with funding rebounding strongly and the number of active companies reaching 536. The year
marked the third-highest investment level in the region’s history, following the exceptional funding
environment seen in 2021 and 2022.

Growth is increasingly being driven by stronger, more scalable business models. The improving
mortality rate, combined with continued start-up creation, indicates a healthier ecosystem capable
of sustaining long-term innovation.
The findings come from the 11th edition of the ‘LatAm Insurtech Journey’ report, produced by Digital
Insurance LatAm and sponsored by MAPFRE, which tracks the evolution of the region’s insurtech landscape.
Geographically, Brazil, Mexico, and Chile remain the largest markets, while cross-border expansion
continues to rise as start-ups increasingly scale beyond domestic markets.

The ecosystem is also shifting structurally. Technology enablers now represent the majority of
companies, reflecting growing demand for solutions across the insurance value chain, including
claims, fraud detection, digital intermediation, and risk analytics.

Hugues Bertin, CEO and founder of Digital Insurance LatAm, said: “The ecosystem has evolved
dramatically in just four years. Today we’re seeing higher-quality companies, more AI-driven models,
and more insurtechs solving real industry problems. The focus has shifted from pure distribution to
technology enablement, which is reshaping the market.”

Carlos Cendra, Scouting & Investment Lead in Corporate Innovation at MAPFRE, said: “2025
exceeded expectations. Strong investment combined with ecosystem churn shows a market that is
maturing. The growing role of ‘multilatina’ insurtechs – operating across multiple markets – will be key to
building more resilient, scalable companies.”

BTC falls back to $65,000 software sector slides 3%

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Bitcoin fell back toward last week’s lows, giving up nearly all of its recent gains above $70,000 and resuming its slide alongside weakness in the broader tech sector, as the crypto now trades back around $65,000.

Bitcoin was down 2% over the past 24 hours, with losses in ether and solana roughly tracking.

The decline mirrored broad price action in the Nasdaq, which fell 2% on Wednesday and more particularly in the software sector, where the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) tumbled 3%. The IGV is now down 21% year to date as investors question the sector’s pricey multiples in a world where the coding abilities of artificial intelligence agents appear to be rising exponentially.

“Software stocks are struggling again today,” wrote macro strategist Jim Bianco. “IGV is essentially back to last week’s panic lows.”

“Don’t forget there’s another type of software, ‘programmable money,’ crypto,” Bianco added. “They are the same thing.”

(Source: X/@biancoresearch)

Precious metals not immune

Cruising along with modest gains through most of the day, gold and silver suffered quick, steep plunges in the mid-afternoon. Late in the session, silver was lower by 10.3% to $75.08 per ounce and gold was down 3.1% to $4,938.

NCUA Suggests GENIUS Act Rules for Credit Union Stablecoin Issuers

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The United States National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) has proposed its first rules under the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, sketching out how subsidiaries of federally insured credit unions could apply to become federally supervised payment stablecoin issuers. 

The NCUA, which oversees more than 4,000 federally insured credit unions serving roughly 144 million members and about $2.38 trillion in assets as of mid-2025, is using this proposal to set out the process and standards for licensing such issuers. 

Under the proposal, any payment stablecoin issuer that is a “subsidiary of an insured credit union” would need to obtain an NCUA permitted payment stablecoin issuer (PPSI) license before issuing coins. 

Federally insured credit unions would also be prohibited from investing in, or lending to, payment stablecoin issuers unless those issuers hold an NCUA PPSI license. 

The draft is narrowly focused on licensing and investment limits. A forthcoming proposal will implement GENIUS Act standards and restrictions for PPSIs, including requirements related to reserves, capital, liquidity, illicit finance, and information technology risk management.

NCUA proposed rule for licensing of PPSIs. Source: NCUA

For now, the rulemaking is about defining the licensing and oversight architecture, and any eventual rollout of stablecoin services to members would depend on future approvals and additional standards. 

“A forthcoming proposal will propose regulations to implement the standards and restrictions imposed by the GENIUS Act on PPSIs,” the preamble states.

Related: The GENIUS Act and MiCA will split stablecoins into cash and shadow deposits

​​Public chain neutral and 120‑day clock

Two features stand out for the broader crypto market. First, the NCUA would be barred from denying a substantially complete application solely because a stablecoin is issued “on an open, public, or decentralized network,” language that explicitly prevents public blockchain issuance from being rejected on that basis alone.

Second, once an application is deemed “substantially complete,” the agency would have 120 days to approve or deny it, and if the NCUA fails to act within that window, the application would be “deemed approved” by default.

The proposal also implements a core GENIUS Act design choice. Insured depository institutions, including credit unions, cannot issue payment stablecoins directly and must instead use separately supervised subsidiaries that meet uniform federal standards. 

For credit unions, that generally means routing activity through credit union service organizations and other qualifying entities that fall under NCUA’s jurisdiction as “subsidiaries of an insured credit union.”

​The document is only a notice of proposed rulemaking. Stakeholders have 60 days from Federal Register publication to comment before the NCUA can finalize or revise the licensing regime.

Cointelegraph reached out to NCUA for additional comments, but had not received a response by publication.

Magazine: Bitcoin vs stablecoins showdown looms as GENIUS Act nears