Current on-chain data weakens the case for a healthy market pullback, according to CryptoQuant analyst Woo Minkyu, who noted rising supply in loss as a key warning indicator.
“Losses are spreading across the supply, even without clear panic yet. This suggests the market is weakening structurally, rather than resetting for another expansion,” Minkyu wrote in a recent analysis.
Supply in loss has risen to approximately 44% and continues to expand, even with Bitcoin trading above its realized price. According to Minkyu, similar conditions in previous cycles marked the onset of bear markets, not routine bull-market corrections.
The supply-in-loss metric represents the percentage of Bitcoin’s circulating supply whose last on-chain movement occurred at prices above the current market value, placing those coins in unrealized losses.
Historically, elevated supply in loss has signaled growing downside pressure, with extreme levels frequently appearing near bear market lows following capitulation.
“This no longer looks like a mid-cycle dip,” Minkyu stated. “On-chain data suggests Bitcoin is transitioning into a bear market phase, with downside risk still unresolved.”
The analyst added that true bottoms in past cycles only formed after supply in loss expanded further, following deeper price compression.
