Bhutan has transferred $22.4 million worth of Bitcoin from its wallets over the past week, continuing a pattern of periodic BTC sales observed over the past several years.
According to blockchain analytics firm Arkham, one of the transfers, executed five days ago, was sent directly to addresses labeled as belonging to market maker QCP Capital.
Data from Arkham indicates that Bhutan is selling Bitcoin in increments of roughly $50 million, with a particularly heavy selling period recorded in mid-to-late September 2025. Bhutan has been mining Bitcoin since 2019, producing over $765 million in BTC profits while incurring estimated energy costs of around $120 million.
Bhutan mined the majority of its Bitcoin before the 2024 halving, tapering production afterward as mining costs roughly doubled. The country’s peak mining year was 2023, when it produced around 8,200 BTC, bringing total holdings at the time to over 13,000 BTC.
Annual production estimates include approximately 2,500 BTC in 2021, 1,800 BTC in 2022, 8,200 BTC in 2023, and 3,000 BTC in 2024, Arkham said.
Bitcoin is cratering to one-year lows
All this is happening as Bitcoin has fallen roughly 40% from its October peak, reigniting concerns about a repeat of its historical four-year cycle downturns.
K33 Research Head Vetle Lunde acknowledged unsettling similarities to past deep sell-offs, such as those in 2018 and 2022 in a recent investor note, but stresses that the current market environment differs structurally.
Increased institutional adoption, inflows into regulated products, and an easing rate backdrop provide stronger tailwinds than in prior cycles, while the market has not experienced the forced deleveraging events that exacerbated the 2022 credit unwind.
Lunde noted that cycle psychology can be self-reinforcing, with long-term holders trimming positions and hesitant new capital contributing to selling pressure, creating patterns reminiscent of past downturns.
Yet, certain indicators hint at a potential market bottom: February 2 saw high spot trading volume above $8 billion, and derivatives markets experienced extreme negative open interest and funding rates, conditions that historically precede reversals.
Despite these signals, Lunde said that evidence remains inconclusive, as similar extremes have occurred during false starts. Critical support is identified around $74,000, with further downside possible toward $69,000 or the 200-week moving average near $58,000 if broken.
At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading near $72,000.
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Affordable Support for Food Banks and Shelters
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Perfect for Group Meals and Large-Scale Prep
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Space-Saving and Easy to Store
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Final Thoughts
Whether you need to be ready in case of some form of a natural disaster or need to do some neighborly support, bulk ramen is a great idea when you are creating a food supply plan. It is cheap, it can be kept in the store, and it can satisfy the appetite of a single person or a huge population. It is an ordinary thing that can save a lot, and it is necessary to have such an item on each emergency shelf.
Bitcoin remains under pressure as the bears attempt to hold the price below the crucial $74,508 level.
Several major altcoins are struggling to bounce off their support levels, increasing the likelihood of the resumption of the downtrend.
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls attempted to start a recovery, but the bears sold at higher levels and pulled the price below $72,169. Galaxy Digital research lead Alex Thorn said in a note on Monday that BTC may plunge to its realized price of $56,000 over the coming weeks due to the lack of catalysts to reverse the trend.
Not everyone is bearish on BTC as select analysts anticipate a bottom soon. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said in an article on X that the crypto markets are likely to “come roaring back sooner rather than later.”
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
However, according to one historical pattern, BTC’s recovery may take time. Crypto proponent Brett said in a post on X that BTC has closed below the 100-week simple moving average (SMA). During previous instances of a break below the 100-week SMA, BTC stayed below the level for 182 to 532 days. The only outlier was the 2020 COVID-19 flash crash when BTC rose back above the 100-week SMA in 35 days.
Could BTC and the major altcoins start a relief rally, or will the support levels give way? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
Buyers are struggling to hold BTC above the critical $74,508 support, indicating aggressive selling by the bears.
If Bitcoin price continues lower and slips below $72,945, it signals the resumption of the downtrend. The BTC/USDT pair may then collapse to the strong support at $60,000.
The relative strength index (RSI) is in the oversold zone, suggesting that the selling may have been overdone in the near term. That increases the likelihood of a relief rally, which may pick up pace on a close above the $79,500 resistance. If that happens, the pair may rally toward the breakdown level of $84,000.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) took support at the crucial $2,111 level on Tuesday, but the shallow bounce suggests a lack of aggressive buying by the bulls.
The sellers are attempting to resume the downtrend by pulling the Ether price below the $2,111 support. If they manage to do that, the ETH/USDT pair may plummet to $1,750.
The RSI in the oversold zone points to a possible relief rally in the near term. The pair may rise to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $2,467 and then to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($2,712). A close above the 20-day EMA suggests that the bulls are back in the game.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) continues to trade below the $790 level, increasing the risk of a drop below the $730 level.
If the BNB price closes below the $730 level, it signals that the bears have flipped the $790 level into resistance. The BNB/USDT pair may plunge to $700 and subsequently to $645.
Time is running out for the bulls. They will have to defend the $730 level and swiftly push the price above the $790 resistance to prevent the downward move. The pair may then climb to the 20-day EMA ($839).
XRP price prediction
The failure of the bulls to maintain XRP (XRP) above the $1.61 level shows that the bears are selling on minor relief rallies.
Sellers will attempt to sink the XRP price below the support line of the descending channel pattern. If they can pull it off, the XRP/USDT pair may retest the Oct. 10, 2025, low of $1.25.
On the upside, the bulls will have to drive the price above the 20-day EMA ($1.79) to suggest that the pair may remain inside the channel for some more time. A close above the downtrend line signals a potential short-term trend change.
Solana price prediction
The failure of the bulls to push Solana (SOL) above the $107 level renewed selling, pulling the price below the crucial $95 support.
If the Solana price closes below $95, it signals the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The SOL/USDT pair may then tumble to $79.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up and breaks above $107, it suggests that the break below the $95 level may have been a bear trap. The pair may then rise to the 20-day EMA ($117), where the bears are expected to step in. Buyers will have to clear the moving averages to indicate that the bearish momentum is weakening.
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) is attempting to start a recovery, but the shallow bounce shows that the bears continue to exert pressure.
If the Dogecoin price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA ($0.12) and breaks below $0.10, it signals the resumption of the downtrend. The DOGE/USDT pair may then nosedive to the $0.08 level.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up and breaks above the moving averages, it signals that the market has rejected the break below the $0.12 level. The pair may then rally to $0.16.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) is attempting to bounce off the support line of the descending channel pattern, but the relief rally lacks strength.
If the Cardano price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA ($0.33), it suggests that the bears retain the advantage. Sellers will then again attempt to sink the ADA/USDT pair below the support line and extend the decline to $0.20.
Contrary to this assumption, if buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair may reach the downtrend line. A close above the downtrend line opens the gates for a rally to the breakdown level of $0.50.
Related: Bitcoin’s $68K trend line seen as potential BTC price floor: Traders
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash’s (BCH) recovery is facing resistance near the 50% retracement level of $535, indicating that the bears are active at higher levels.
Sellers will attempt to pull the Bitcoin Cash price below the $497 level, which is an important level to watch out for. If the level gives way, the BCH/USDT pair may descend to $467 and then to $443.
Contrarily, if buyers drive the price above $544, the pair may jump to the 20-day EMA ($562). Sellers are expected to mount a strong defense at the 20-day EMA, but if the bulls prevail, the pair may rise toward $604.
Hyperliquid price prediction
Hyperliquid (HYPE) pierced the $35.50 resistance on Tuesday but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling at higher levels.
If buyers do not give up much ground to the bears, the prospects of a break above the $35.50 level increase. If that happens, the HYPE/USDT pair may surge to $44. Such a move signals that the corrective phase may be over.
Instead, if the Hyperliquid price turns down sharply from the current level and breaks below the 20-day EMA ($28.79), it suggests that the pair may continue to oscillate between $35.50 and $20.82 for a while longer.
Monero price prediction
Monero (XMR) is attempting to take support at the $360 level, but the relief rally is likely to face selling at $412 and then at the 20-day EMA ($461).
If the Monero price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance, it signals that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. That puts the $360 level in danger of breaking down. The next support on the downside is at $320.
On the contrary, if buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, the XMR/USDT pair may rise to $500. Buyers are expected to face significant selling at the $500 level. Generally, after a sharp decline, the price tends to consolidate for some time before making the next directional move.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has withdrawn a Biden administration-era proposal that would have banned sports and political prediction markets, some of the most popular event contracts today.
The recently confirmed CFTC chair, Mike Selig, said on Wednesday that the agency has withdrawn a 2024 notice of proposed rulemaking that sought to ban event contracts for sports, politics and war, among other topics, classifying them as “contrary to the public interest.”
Selig said the proposal “reflected the prior administration’s frolic into merit regulation with an outright prohibition on political contracts ahead of the 2024 presidential election,” adding that CFTC doesn’t plan to issue final rules on the proposal.
“The Commission is withdrawing that proposal and will advance a new rulemaking grounded in a rational and coherent interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act that promotes responsible innovation in our derivatives markets in line with Congressional intent,” he added.
Source: Mike Selig
It’s the agency’s latest move affecting prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which have surged in popularity for allowing bets on a wide range of events, most notably sports.
The platforms, including offerings from Coinbase and Crypto.com, have faced legal challenges from multiple states that argue they offer unlicensed gambling, a claim the platforms have pushed back on, arguing they’re regulated exclusively by the CFTC.
CFTC takes down staff letter on sports event contracts
Selig said the CFTC also withdrew a September staff letter that reminded CFTC-regulated entities of their obligations when facilitating sports event contracts and of the need to be prepared for litigation.
The letter, which came ahead of a US government shutdown, told regulated entities to “be prepared for all foreseeable conditions that may result from facilitating the trading and clearing of sports-related event contracts.”
Related: US market regulators move to coordinate on crypto oversight
It added that CFTC staff were aware of various state regulatory actions and lawsuits around sports event contracts.
The letter warned that companies should be prepared to face such action with “appropriate contingency planning, disclosures, and risk management policies and procedures.”
Selig said the advisory “intended to highlight litigation considerations,” but it had “inadvertently created confusion and uncertainty for our market participants.”
“I look forward to working with staff on an event contracts rulemaking,” he added.
Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026
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The U.S. government is formally reversing its previous stance on banning certain activities at prediction market firms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, with U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Mike Selig moving Wednesday to withdraw a proposed event-contracts rule from 2024 and scrapping an earlier advisory he said confused the industry.
In 2024, the derivatives regulator proposed a rule that would have banned contracts based on the outcome of political events, legally equating them with illicit contracts on war, terrorism and assassination and calling them “contrary to the public interest.” That rule never advanced to a final stage before President Donald Trump returned to the White House and appointed new CFTC leadership. The CFTC had allowed prediction markets based on political events to launch after losing a court fight over Kalshi’s intended offering that same year.
The recently confirmed chairman of the agency, Selig, has now cleared the decks of that and a minor advisory issued in September on certain contract markets.
“The 2024 event contracts proposal reflected the prior administration’s frolic into merit regulation with an outright prohibition on political contracts ahead of the 2024 presidential election,” Selig said in a statement. “The Commission is withdrawing that proposal and will advance a new rulemaking grounded in a rational and coherent interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act that promotes responsible innovation in our derivatives markets in line with Congressional intent.”
Selig’s action is unsurprising, following closely on the heels of his remarks last week that signaled it was coming. He said he’d “directed CFTC staff to move forward with drafting an event contracts rulemaking.”
The Trump administration’s embrace of the prediction markets has paved the way for increased interest from companies seeking to throw their hat into the sector, such as Coinbase, or the tangential pursuit of similar products from Cboe.
The September advisory Selig pulled back had been meant to caution platforms about litigation concerns, he said, but it had “inadvertently created confusion and uncertainty for our market participants.”
The CFTC is expected to become a central voice in digital assets oversight, in which the prediction markets have had an overlapping interest. Selig is working on a number of new initiatives, and the Congress is negotiating its crypto market structure bill that — among many other points — is meant to establish the CFTC as the rightful watchdog of crypto spot markets that don’t involve securities.
Read More: U.S. SEC, CFTC chiefs push united front on paving the way for crypto
Anthropic’s legal AI plugin sparked an $285 billion sell-off across software and services stocks.
Experts say AI agents will compress entry-level roles and push a shift away from seat-based pricing.
Investors seem to be repricing SaaS as foundation model firms move into full workflow automation.
Shares of several information and professional-services companies slid sharply this week amid Anthropic’s unveiling of a legal-automation tool that rattled investors’ confidence in the sector’s long-term pricing power.
Thomson Reuters sank 18%, Pearson fell 7%, and LegalZoom dropped nearly 20%, as the selloff spread across software, financial services, and asset management stocks, erasing roughly $285 billion in market value, Bloomberg reported.
The panic began after Anthropic announced 11 open-source plugins for Claude Cowork on January 30, but focused on one in particular.
That included a legal plugin, which automates contract review, NDA triage, and compliance workflows. In a nutshell, it does the grunt work that keeps thousands of paralegals and junior associates employed.
The panic wasn’t just about one plugin doing document review—it was about what the component represents: foundation model companies beginning to build full-fledged workflow products, willing to take on the enterprise software industry directly.
“The market’s response was a signal, not that AI agents will immediately replace these businesses, but that investors are finally pricing in the structural risk that foundation model providers can now compete directly with the software layer,” Scott Dylan, founder of Nexatech Ventures, told Decrypt. The fear isn’t speculative, he said.
“That’s a polite way of saying if Anthropic can build a legal workflow tool in-house, what’s stopping them from doing the same for finance, procurement, or HR?” Dylan added.
If AI agents can do that, why would anyone pay per-seat pricing? That’s the business model that built Salesforce, Bloomberg, and every SaaS giant.
And now cracks are beginning to appear.
Source: legaltechnology.com
Short-term FUD or structural repricing?
“The selling pressure reflects a deepening structural debate,” Schroders analyst Jonathan McMullan told Reuters. “Investors are aggressively repricing these areas as the historical ‘visibility premium’ erodes; the speed of AI advancement makes long-term valuations harder to defend, particularly as AI tools allow businesses to do more with fewer staff, threatening the traditional model of charging per software user.”
Those concerns have also spread beyond legal tech.
Advertising giants Omnicom and Publicis tumbled by 11.2% and 9%, respectively. Australian cloud accounting firm Xero had its worst day since 2013, dropping 16%.
So what do the people actually doing the work think?
Asked whether advances in AI agents pose a threat to legal work, Joel Simon, founder and partner of Simon Perdue, a firm practicing across Texas and New Mexico, struck a measured note.
“We live in a world where judgment and credibility matter more than raw processing power,” Simon told Decrypt, arguing that human assessment still outweighs pure computational speed. “AI is able to comb through massive amounts of information, flag patterns, and surface issues faster than a junior associate ever could. If anything, this has been a relief because it has cleared the runway so we can focus on strategy, witness prep, storytelling, and decision-making under pressure.”
Simon said his firm has already integrated AI into day-to-day work, describing the technology as an accelerator rather than a substitute for lawyers.
It’s already being used to draft outlines, condense discovery materials, and test potential lines of questioning, while attorneys retain control over judgment, narrative, and courtroom strategy. “AI doesn’t take the stand,” he said. “We do.”
In two to three years, Simon predicts, “trial attorneys who embrace AI will be more valuable, not less.
The job will look leaner with fewer hours wasted on rote work, more time spent on case theory, client counseling, and courtroom execution.
Nexatech’s Scott Dylan had a less optimistic take.
“The honest answer is that AI agents are going to displace certain types of work—particularly repetitive, rules-based tasks that can be well-specified,” he told Decrypt. “Contract review, NDA triage, compliance checklists. These are exactly the workflows that Anthropic is targeting, and they’re performed by tens of thousands of paralegals and junior associates,”
But Dylan is not completely pessimistic. “Displacement isn’t the same as elimination. What’s more likely is a compression at the entry level. Junior roles that used to be training grounds—associate work at law firms, analyst tasks at consultancies, first-line customer support—will shrink,” he said.
Human challenges in an agentic society
Dylan said that workers will need to learn how to adapt and overcome.
“I don’t think we’re heading toward a world where humans become redundant,” he said. “The scenario where agents handle all knowledge work, and humans are left wondering what to do with themselves is, frankly, unlikely in any timeframe that matters.”
In the long term, human workers will prevail in “roles that require physical presence or high-touch human interaction,” such as healthcare, personal services, and skilled trades, Dylan added.
But until society adapts, there will be a painful period for everyone, and investors are already pricing in all these elements.
IDC predicted that by 2028, pure seat-based pricing will be obsolete, with 70% of software vendors shifting to consumption-based, outcome-based, or organizational capability pricing. If an agent does the work, customers expect to pay for results, not logins.
For now, enterprise software companies are experimenting with different models.
Bain & Company analyzed over 30 SaaS vendors introducing generative AI. Nearly 35% increased per-seat pricing with bundled AI features. Another 35% adopted hybrid models with usage-based add-ons.
The rest are experimenting with outcome-based pricing—charging per contract reviewed, ticket resolved, or lead generated, rather than per seat occupied.
The challenge now is asking customers to spend more before they see savings. A SaaS company pitching a $40,000 AI agent to replace an $80,000 sales rep faces a problem: in the short term, the customer needs both the employee and the agent while evaluating outcomes. That’s a 50% cost increase for an undefined period.
“The issue is that most agents today rely on APIs that burn through tokens quickly, which can create costly and unpredictable bills if they’re not tightly monitored, Davis Householder, managing director of MYCO Management, told Decrypt. “In those cases, you’re just replacing one SaaS subscription for another.”
“Unlike normal gen-AI’s, the risk with agents isn’t occasional failure but failure at scale,” Householder added.
In the next couple of years, people can likely expect major disruptions to their working lives. Layoffs, driven mostly by fear, could occur alongside more complex automation workflows as tooling matures.
The development of richer multi-agent ecosystems with better APIs and coordination protocols could present another challenge. Regulatory attention will also focus in as governments realize autonomous agents can be weaponized or generate social instability.
In the medium term, infrastructure could harden. There will be better regulations for work environments in which humans interact with agents.
We’ll likely see agent marketplaces with reputation systems, vetted skills, and standardized protocols for autonomous agent-to-agent transactions. Along the way, expect to see a few high-profile security breaches that serve as wake-up calls.
In the long term, this is likely to be a restructuring rather than an extinction event.
As AI compresses margins and commoditizes basic functionality, the strongest firms consolidate power. The real value may shift away from seat-based software and toward proprietary data, including legal databases, financial benchmarks, compliance logic, licensed into agent-driven systems. Service remains, but data becomes the core business.
What AI agents mean for jobs: Displacement or reinvention?
In the meantime, the implications are stark.
An MIT study found 11.7% of U.S. jobs could already be automated using current AI technology.
Research published by the World Economic Forum in 2025 argues that almost 60% of workers worldwide will need to undergo “reskilling” to remain relevant in the post-agent era.
“We need to address our education system and revamp the way in which we train people so they are using AI to do their jobs better rather than letting AI do their jobs entirely, which puts them at risk with employers who seek to cut costs,” Amrita Bhasin, CEO of Sotira and consultant to Fortune 500 companies, told Decrypt.
“There is no feasible way to prevent AGI,” she said. “We need to support the average American worker and ensure that they have the skills, training, and ability to compete in an increasingly competitive and/or unstable job market that AI threatens.”
Companies and professionals that adapt—learning to work alongside AI agents, shifting from execution toward oversight, and anchoring their value in judgment rather than process—are likely to fare better.
Those that fail to adjust risk being revalued, much like the stocks that sold off this week.
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The world’s first “social media network for AI agents” has launched — and immediately went viral.
Moltbook is essentially a Reddit-like platform where AI agents share, discuss and upvote. It has attracted worldwide attention.
Humans, its homepage proudly asserts, are “welcome to observe.”
Reactions have ranged from amusement to alarm and skepticism, with some intrigued by the site’s potential significance. Others are horrified.
Moltbook is the brainchild of tech entrepreneur Matt Schlicht, who explained his vision on a post on social media platform X. Schlicht said: “For the first time ever we are not alone on earth, there is another species and they are smarter than us. We created moltbook.com so that they can all be in one place.”
Moltbook emerged in the wake of OpenClaw, an open source AI bot that can act as a personalized assistant for users, sending emails or managing calendars, but that came with significant safety concerns. On Jan. 29, Gartner described OpenClaw as an “unacceptable security risk”.
Related:Panic Rises in Legal Industry Due to Anthropic’s AI Plugins
Instant Popularity Among Agents
As of this week, Moltbook had more than 1.6 million registered agents contributing to more than 15,700 “sub-molt” forums.
Among the more positive interpretations of what Moltbook might feasibly offer is the potential benefits of AI agents collaborating with each other, sharing ideas and solving problems through a form of swarm intelligence. Indeed, Elon Musk referred to Moltbook as “just the early stages of the singularity” — the future point at which AI surpasses human intelligence.
However, Moltbook has also drawn a fair amount of criticism due to a number of perceived failings, among these that it is merely a home for “AI slop” due to the bizarre nature of some of the discussions, which have included an agent forming a new religion called “Crustafarianism” and a suggestion that bots create their own language.
Also, an investigation by cloud security vendor Wiz revealed that most of the agents are not actually autonomous. Wiz claims that about 17,000 humans are controlling the bots, with Gal Nagli, head of threat exposure at Wiz, writing in a blog: “The platform had no mechanism to verify whether an “agent” was actually AI or just a human with a script.”
Security Problems
These findings were published as Wiz exposed serious security failings, which allowed its research team to gain access to Moltbook’s back-end database, uncovering “1.5 million API authentication tokens, 35,000 email addresses, and private messages between agents,” enabling posts to be changed on the platform.
Related:ServiceNow and Anthropic Disclose AI Deal
Wiz attributed this to Schlicht’s claim on X that he “didn’t write one line of code” for Moltbook, with AI making his “vision for the technical architecture” a reality.
Although some security problems have now apparently been patched, there is obvious concern over how easily the system was breached and the potential consequences should a bad actor be able to alter a post with instructions that could be followed by the hundreds of thousands of agents on the platform. Opinions about Moltbook have been extensive and deeply divided, but among the most interested observers has been Andrej Karpathy, who neatly summarized the pros and cons.
The OpenAI co-founder and former Tesla AI director dismissed Moltbook as a “Dumpster fire” and said much of the content as “garbage”, adding that “it’s way too much of a wild west” to run on a private computer, putting data at high risk. However, he acknowledged that the gathering of so many AI agents on one platform was “unprecedented” and expressed interest in where the network might go.
Schlicht, however, is convinced that his network proves that a new era is coming, saying in another X post: “In the near future it will be common for certain AI agents, with unique identities, to become famous. A new species is emerging and it is AI.”
Related:Google’s AI-Powered Chrome Further Transforms Search
Bitcoin’s (BTC) struggle to hold above $70,000 carried into Wednesday, raising concerns that the a drop into the $60,000 range could be the next stop. The sell-off was accompanied by futures market liquidations, a $55 billion drop in BTC open interest (OI) over the past 30 days, and rising Bitcoin inflows to exchanges.
The price weakness has analysts debating whether crypto-specific factors or larger macro-economic issues are the driving factor behind the sell-off and what it may mean for BTC’s short-term future.
Key takeaways:
About 744,000 BTC in open interest exited major exchanges in 30 days, equal to about $55 billion at current prices.
BTC futures cumulative volume delta (CVD) fell by $40 billion over the past six months.
Crypto exchange reserves have risen by 34,000 BTC since mid-January, increasing the near-term supply risk.
BTC open interest collapse points to large-scale deleveraging
CryptoQuant data noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day open interest change shows a sharp contraction across exchanges, reflecting widespread position closures, not just freshly opened short positions.
On Binance, the net open interest fell by 276,869 BTC over the past month. Bybit recorded the largest decline at 330,828 BTC, while OKX saw a reduction of 136,732 BTC on Tuesday.
In total, about 744,000 BTC worth of open positions were closed, equivalent to more than $55 billion at current prices. This drop in open positions coincided with Bitcoin’s drop below $75,000, indicating deleveraging as a driving factor, not just spot selling.
Bitcoin open interest 30D change. Source: CryptoQuant
Onchain analyst Boris highlighted that the cumulative volume delta (CVD) data shows market sell orders continue to dominate, particularly on Binance, where derivatives CVD sits near -$38 billion over the past six months.
Other exchanges show varying dynamics: Bybit’s CVD flattened near $100 million after a sharp December liquidation wave, while HTX stabilized at -$200 million in CVD as the price consolidates near $74,000.
Related: Bitcoin bounces to $76K, but onchain and technical data signal deeper downside
Increased exchange flows add pressure as analysts watch key levels
Bitcoin inflows to exchanges surged in January, totaling about 756,000 BTC, led by Binance and Coinbase. Since early February, inflows have exceeded 137,000 BTC, underscoring traders’ repositioning and not necessarily leaving the market.
On the supply side, analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that exchange reserves have risen to 2.752 million BTC from 2.718 million BTC since Jan. 19. The analyst warned that continued growth above 2.76 million BTC could increase selling pressure. The analyst said that a complete capitulation has yet to take place, which may happen at lower price levels.
Bitcoin exchange reserves. Source: CryptoQuant
Market analyst Scient said Bitcoin is unlikely to form a bottom in a single day or week. Durable market bottoms may develop through two to three months of consolidation near the major support zones, with higher time frame indicators. Scient noted that whether this structure forms in the high $60,000 range or the low $50,000 level remains unclear.
Bitcoin Trader Mark Cullen continues to see potential downside toward $50,000 in a broader macro scenario, but expects a short-term reversion toward the local point of control ($89,000 to $86,000) after BTC swept weekly lows below $74,000 on Tuesday.
Mark Cullen’s LTF BTC analysis. Source: X
Related: Bitcoin’s $68K trend line seen as potential BTC price floor: Traders
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Bitcoin’s price is experiencing one of its steepest declines ever for this cycle, after falling by nearly 50% from its all-time high of $126,000. The decline has ultimately triggered a crucial shift in the sentiment of BTC large holders and retail investors, who appear to be moving on separate trajectories.
Smart Money Steps Back, Retail Embraces Risk
While the price of Bitcoin has fallen sharply towards the $73,000 mark, a key divergence has emerged among BTC investors, which could play a role in its next direction. Specifically, this ongoing divergence is being observed among large BTC holders or whales and retail holders.
A recent analysis by Joao Wedson, a market expert and founder of Alphractal, shows that whales are starting to close their long positions in BTC while retail traders move in the opposite direction. Looking at the chart, the high-net-worth investors are closing their longs opened around the $75,000 price level.
Wedson’s research is primarily centered on the Bitcoin Whale vs Retail Delta metric, which is a powerful tool as it typically anticipates what price will do next. The trend suggests that large players are reducing risk and locking in gains. Meanwhile, smaller traders are increasing their bullish exposure in anticipation of a potential rebound.
Source: Chart from Joao Wedson on X
This is a typical trend in a highly volatile market, as institutional traders are often opportunistic. During periods like this, these major investors tend to hunt for volatility, open longs and shorts aggressively, and later reduce exposure.
On the other hand, retail investors tend to be stubborn, which is evidenced by them holding positions longer than they are supposed to. A key driver of this action from the investors is greed rather than structure. According to the expert, two scenarios appear extremely likely now that whales are closing longs or starting new shorts at these levels.
The first scenario is that Bitcoin will experience steady sideways movement for a few days before deciding its next trajectory. For the second scenario, the price of BTC may continue to move lower. In the meantime, the imbalance raises questions about the short-term viability of the current market structure.
BTC Addresses Are In Distribution Mode
Given the ongoing decline in the Bitcoin price, Joao Wedson shared in another post on X that many BTC wallet addresses appear to be shifting toward a distribution mode. Such a development directly contradicts what most market participants believe in.
In the past, addresses holding 0.1 BTC to 100 BTC have been the most effective group. When prices are low, this group tends to build up and then disperse into strength when prices are higher.
Furthermore, this trend challenges a common misconception that relying solely on mega-whale addresses is an unreliable tactic. However, market structure is shaped by coordinated behavior across cohorts, not by isolated large wallets.
BTC trading at $76,100 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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The disappearance of 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie, mother of Today show co-host Savannah Guthrie, has taken a dramatic turn after what appears to be a bitcoin ransom demand surfaced amid a widespread and intensifying investigation into her possible kidnapping.
Late Tuesday, entertainment news site TMZ reported it had received an alleged ransom note demanding a specific, substantial payment in Bitcoin — reportedly in the millions — in exchange for Guthrie’s safe return.
The note included a deadline for payment and a threat of harm if the demand was not met, and was sent with a Bitcoin wallet address that TMZ verified as a real on-chain account.
The alleged ransom note also referenced specific details about Nancy Guthrie’s clothing and damage to her Tucson-area home.
Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos confirmed law enforcement is aware of reports about possible ransom notes circulating in the investigation, but emphasized that the authenticity of these notes has not been verified.
Authorities stressed that they are taking all tips and leads seriously and are coordinating with the FBI on the case.
The Nancy Guthrie kidnapping investigation
Nancy Guthrie was reported missing on February 1, after failing to show up at church in her Catalina Foothills neighborhood.
Authorities believe she was taken from her home sometime late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. Evidence collected at the scene has raised serious concerns: signs of forced entry, a blood trail outside the home, and personal effects left behind suggest foul play rather than a voluntary disappearance.
Sheriff Nanos, while declining to disclose the number of possible suspects or further details about the investigation, has said that the absence of life-sustaining medication and Guthrie’s limited mobility make her safe return a priority.
The FBI is assisting local authorities, and investigators are interviewing friends, neighbors, and family members as part of a broad search effort.
Guthrie’s daughter, Savannah, has taken an immediate leave from Today show duties and canceled scheduled appearances, including travel for the 2026 Winter Olympics broadcast, to focus on her family’s search.
Despite the viral nature of the ransom demand, law enforcement sources have been cautious: no official confirmation has been made that the ransom note came from the actual kidnappers.
Some investigators and analysts have noted that opportunistic hoaxes can occur in high-profile cases, and that media outlets receiving such notes should treat them skeptically until corroborated by police.
