Kevin Warsh’s odds of leading the central bank in the post-Powell era have reached a new all-time high after President Trump said today that his pick for Fed chair would be a well-known figure in the financial world.
He also said the choice would not come as a surprise, adding that many people believe it is someone who could have held the role a few years ago.
Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, has seen his odds of becoming the next Fed Chair surge to 92% on Polymarket and Kalshi, up from under 40% the previous day.
The spike comes ahead of President Trump’s announcement on January 30, 2026, when he is expected to reveal his nominee for the position. Warsh is among four finalists identified by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, alongside Christopher Waller, Rick Rieder, and Kevin Hassett.
Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Trump holds three of the seven Fed board seats.