Iran has released a list of Gulf bridge targets following a coalition strike on the B1 Bridge in Karaj. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 2% YES, down from 8% just a day ago.
This escalation has affected several markets. The ceasefire by April 15 now stands at 8% YES, down from 18%. April 30 odds dropped to 24% YES, while May 31 fell to 46% YES. The steepest decline was in the April 15 market, with a 10-point drop indicating traders see early April as unlikely for de-escalation.
The USDC traded in these markets is significant. A 4-point drop in the May 31 market shows a sharp reassessment. With $535,930 in USDC traded across sub-markets, and $25,832 required to shift the April 7 market by 5 points, liquidity is substantial.
Iran’s move suggests a shift in military strategy over diplomacy. Traders betting on an April 7 ceasefire could earn $1 per YES share, a 50x return at the current 2¢ price. However, the odds suggest this outcome is unlikely without a major diplomatic change.
Watch for signals from CENTCOM or the UN about peace talks. Announcements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar could influence these markets. The Sultan of Oman’s involvement or back-channel meetings might alter expectations.
Markets Impacted
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