Why Bitcoin’s $72K Wall Signals Its Most Painful Cycle Phase Yet

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break the $72,000 resistance on Tuesday, as onchain data suggested that BTC was entering the most “challenging” phase of the cycle.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin price stays range-bound following another rejection at $72,000.

• Rising supply in loss suggests the most “psychologically challenging” phase of the bear market is here.

• Bitcoin must break resistance at $72,000 for a chance to end the downtrend.

Bitcoin faces the most frustrating phase of the cycle

Bitcoin is entering a period of “elevated uncertainty” where market participants display more hesitation than conviction, according to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_.

“A combination of 3 key onchain metrics suggests that the market may be navigating one of the most psychologically challenging phases of the cycle,” MorenoDV_ said.

Related: Arthur Hayes says he’s waiting to buy Bitcoin until Fed eases policy

These include the Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator, a metric that tracks phases of investor sentiment in the BTC market, which shows a bear market consolidation phase following the aggressive drawdown from cycle highs.

This is “a period that historically tends to frustrate both bulls and bears,” the analyst said.

The apparent demand further reinforces this picture. The chart above reveals that the spike in Bitcoin’s apparent demand in mid-February was short-lived, “with demand quickly slipping back into negative territory,” MorenoDV_ said.

The lack of sustained buying pressure indicates that market participants remain cautious and unwilling to aggressively accumulate at current levels.

Moreover, the Long-Term Holder SOPR is now below the key threshold of 1, a sign that even long-term investors are realizing losses.

“Historically, this phase tends to emerge in the later stages of bear markets, when prolonged uncertainty begins to erode even the strongest conviction. ”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin supply in loss is rising again, currently approaching the 40–45% range, up from 22% in mid-January.

Historically, such levels appeared during deep corrective phases, as seen in 2015, 2019, and 2022, reflecting growing market stress and capitulation among sellers.

The chart below shows that macro market bottoms are historically formed when supply in loss rises above 50%.

“Supply in loss is increasing again, indicating rising market stress,” CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu said, adding:

“If historical patterns repeat, the current level may represent the early phase of a bear market rather than the final bottom.”

As Cointelegraph reported, analysts forecast Bitcoin extending its bear market into late 2026, with some predictions as low as $30,000.

Bitcoin’s key resistance remains $72,000

Bitcoin has made several unsuccessful attempts to rise above $72,000, a level that has suppressed the price since early March.

“Another rejection at the range high for the time being,” said analyst Daan Crypto Trades in an X post on Tuesday, referring to Bitcoin’s pause below $72,000 on Tuesday, adding:

“Still in the range and markets are in general very indecisive.”

An accompanying chart showed $72,000 was the key level to watch on BTC’s four-hour chart. Breaching this level could attract new buyers if the price breaks out of its range.

Fellow analyst BenCrypz said a clean breakout above $72,000 “could trigger stronger bullish momentum and open the path toward higher levels.”

“However, if this resistance holds again, BTC could rotate back toward the $69K mid-range or even revisit the $66K support zone.”