The outbreak of war in the Middle East has rattled global markets, yet bitcoin has been doing something unexpected: outperforming stocks.
Bitcoin has risen about 3.5% to $68,000 since the conflict between Iran, Israel and the U.S. began just over a week ago, according to CoinDesk data. Over the same period it has outperformed most major assets. Gold has fallen roughly 5%, silver is down 12%, the Nasdaq 100 has declined about 1% and the S&P 500 is lower by around 1.5%.
The divergence has widened over the past 24 hours, with bitcoin up more than 2.5% while U.S. equity futures remain in the red. WTI crude briefly surged to around $116 per barrel early on Monday, at one stage up about 60% since the conflict began. However, comments from G7 leaders about potentially releasing oil reserves helped cool the rally, with crude retreating to roughly $100 per barrel.
Meanwhile, the U..S dollar has strengthened, with the DXY index rising more than 1% to just above 99. Treasury yields have also climbed, with the US 10 year yield moving from just below 4% before the conflict to around 4.2%.
Bitcoin’s outperformance comes after weeks of a brutal sell-off that saw prices nearly halve to around $60,000 from the record high above $126,000 in October. With sentiment already fragile when the conflict began, many expected the downturn to deepen rather than reverse. Instead, the market has done what it often does best: catch the consensus off guard.
Tracking tech stocks
Despite bitcoin’s relative strength, it still shows correlation with technology stocks. The iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF (IGV), a widely followed software sector benchmark, has gained about 7% since the conflict began after rebounding from roughly $76 to close Friday near $88.
Derivative market signals may point to stabilization. Open interest in coin margined futures, which measures the total value of outstanding contracts settled in bitcoin rather than dollars, has declined, indicating leverage is being flushed from the system. Funding rates, periodic payments between long and short traders in perpetual futures, remain negative at around -3.5%, meaning short sellers are paying longs, a sign bearish positioning remains crowded.
At the same time, the Coinbase premium has returned. This measures the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges and is often used as a proxy for US institutional demand. Its reappearance, alongside spot ETF inflows, suggests institutional buyers may be returning to the market and finding demand at these oversold levels.