Bitcoin is trading near $63,000 after dipping to about $59,000 earlier this week, and some data points to pain ahead for bulls, with a possible drop to levels last seen in early 2024.
The largest cryptocurrency is now only 9% above its realized price of about $53,600, according to onchain analysis firm CryptoQuant. Realized price is the average of the prices at which the coins last moved. When the market price gets close, the average holder is barely in profit. That level has marked major bear-market floors in past cycles.
The problem, however, is demand.
Total bitcoin demand fell by 652,000 BTC last week, the largest contraction since January 2022, CryptoQuant said. Demand from ETFs is also shrinking at the fastest pace since U.S. spot bitcoin funds debuted in January 2024, showing the institutional bid that powered this cycle has turned into selling.
Sellers crystallized 187,000 BTC of losses over the past 30 days. That is painful, but still well below the 400,000 BTC loss spike in February and the 1.2 million BTC seen around the November 2022 cycle bottom.