The U.S. and allies have intensified military actions against Iran, causing the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 to drop to 8% YES, down from 26% a week ago.
Traders are losing confidence in a ceasefire soon. The April 7 ceasefire market is nearly inactive at 8% YES. The April 15 and April 30 markets are also bearish, at 18% and 38% YES. New military actions suggest a slim chance for a ceasefire.
The US forces entering Iran by April 30 market holds at 52% YES, indicating possible further escalation. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market is at 10.5% YES, reflecting slight expectations of regime instability after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination.
Trading volume shows $205,330/day in the ceasefire market, with $15,138 needed to move the price 5 points, indicating moderate market activity. The forces entering Iran market is more active, with $1.97M traded daily and $37,215 required for a 5-point move, suggesting significant bets.
Military actions may not signal a major conflict shift. Current odds suggest a bleak ceasefire outlook but might overstate immediate ground troop involvement. A YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 at just 8¢, offering a 12.5x return if diplomacy unexpectedly advances.
Watch for CENTCOM updates and diplomatic moves from Oman or Qatar for signs of easing tensions.
Markets Impacted
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