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Iran Ceasefire Odds Climb on Polymarket as Trump Signals Negotiations With Tehran – Bitcoin News

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Iran Peace Talks Surface

Much has shifted since U.S. President Donald Trump warned he would “obliterate” Iran’s power stations if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed. In the wake of that remark—which sent bitcoin’s price lower—the rhetoric has softened, with the president stating the U.S. was “in negotiations right now” with Iran.

Precious metal prices have edged higher, while Brent crude (UKOIL) has eased alongside declines in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices, and crypto assets have also posted gains. U.S. equity futures point to a modest rebound on Wall Street, though the direction could change as the trading session unfolds.

At the same time, an NYT report states that a proposal delivered to Iran via Pakistan seeks to end the war through a 15-point agreement. Prediction market activity has intensified, with bettors pouring capital into Middle East-related outcomes, and one contract in particular called “US x Iran ceasefire by…?” on Polymarket, has recorded roughly $44.6 million in trading volume.

Traders Bet Big on Ceasefire and War Conclusion

Polymarket bettors are pricing in more time. Traders who believe a ceasefire will happen by March 31 face 15% odds, yet that deadline has attracted the highest single-pool volume at $27.5 million, meaning real money is riding on a long shot. Move the deadline a week to April 7, and confidence climbs to 27%, though volume drops sharply to $124,000.

The pattern holds as dates stretch out. April 15 sits at 37% with $4.2 million behind it. April 30 reaches 48% and $4.9 million. By May 31, bettors are pricing a better-than-even chance at 59%. June 30 comes in at 67%. The December 31 deadline, which stands nine months away, carries a 78% probability, though only $348,000 in volume, suggesting fewer traders are willing to wait that long to find out.

The further out the deadline is, the more the market believes a deal will get done. The closer the deadline, the more money is on the table, betting it won’t. Then there is another Polymarket contract that monitors whether President Trump or the U.S. government will formally declare an end to military operations against Iran, which commenced on Feb. 28, 2026.

To resolve “Yes,” a formal public statement is required — an official government release or a post from Trump’s Truth Social account confirming operations have ended. Total trading volume has reached just over $6 million.

The odds follow the same logic as the ceasefire market mentioned above: more time, more confidence. The March 31 deadline sits at 18% probability, but carries $3.88 million in volume — the heaviest pool in the market, concentrated on the earliest and least likely outcome. April 7 comes in at 33%. April 15 at 42%.

Push the date to April 30, and traders price in a 57% chance that operations are declared over. By June 30, that number reaches 78%. The money is clustered where belief is lowest. The confidence is highest where the timeline is longest.

The signals from Polymarket bettors form a disciplined market read rather than a simple bet on headlines. Prediction market traders are not dismissing a resolution; they are pricing its timing, attaching capital where uncertainty is highest and confidence where patience pays. For now, diplomacy has nudged sentiment, but the money suggests conviction builds slowly, not instantly, as timelines extend beyond the immediate horizon.

The wagers, paired with Trump’s latest turn toward peace-focused rhetoric, arrive as a growing share of observers expect the Middle East conflict with Iran to drag on, with some warning the trajectory could spiral into far broader and far more severe global consequences.

FAQ 🔎

  • What is the latest Iran peace proposal? A 15-point plan, reported by the New York Times, was delivered to Iran via Pakistan to end the conflict.
  • What are Polymarket bettors saying about a ceasefire? Traders assign low odds to near-term peace but increasing probability as timelines extend into mid-2026.
  • Has Trump confirmed negotiations with Iran? Yes, Trump said the U.S. is “in negotiations right now” following earlier military threats.
  • How are markets reacting to Iran war developments? Oil has dipped, precious metals have edged higher, equities show tentative recovery, and crypto prices have gained.

Latest Clarity Act Draft Bans Rewards on Passive Stablecoin Balances

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Activity-based rewards are allowed, but anything ‘economically equivalent to interest’ is barred.

Crypto industry leaders reviewed the draft stablecoin yield language in the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act during a closed-door session on Capitol Hill on Monday, and the opening reaction was that the text was overly narrow and unclear, according to CoinDesk.

The draft, negotiated by Senators Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), bans yield payments for simply holding a stablecoin and restricts any structure that is economically equivalent to a bank deposit, CoinDesk reported. Activity-based rewards tied to loyalty programs, promotions, subscriptions, transactions, and platform use remain permitted, but the mechanics for determining what qualifies as a valid activity remain uncertain.

Circle shares fell 19%, while Coinbase dropped 8% on Tuesday after the draft raised the prospect of strict limits on stablecoin yield.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, who pulled the company’s support for the Clarity Act in January over yield restrictions, causing the Senate Banking Committee to postpone its markup, has yet to comment on the new text. Stablecoin-related revenue represented roughly 20% of Coinbase’s total revenue in Q3 2025.

The stablecoin yield question had been the single largest obstacle blocking the Clarity Act’s path through the Senate since January. Banks, led by the American Bankers Association, argued that stablecoin rewards could siphon deposits from traditional savings accounts. JPMorgan and Bank of America executives cited a Treasury study indicating that banks could lose up to $6.6 trillion in deposits if stablecoins offered unregulated yields, CNBC reported.

The GENIUS Act, signed into law in July 2025, barred stablecoin issuers from paying interest directly to holders but did not prevent third-party platforms from offering rewards — a gap that experts warned would become a key regulatory battleground.

What’s Next

The deal clears the primary hurdle for a Senate Banking Committee markup, now tentatively targeted for late April after the Easter recess. The bill had already been unlikely to advance before then, as Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated earlier this month.

From there, the bill faces a full Senate floor vote requiring 60 votes, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture Committee’s version passed in January, reconciliation with the House version that passed 294-134 in July 2025, and a presidential signature.

Polymarket currently prices the odds of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 at roughly 63%.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

The UK’s Payments Overhaul Will Be Won or Lost in the Build

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The UK’s plans to modernise retail payments are entering a more practical phase, as the focus moves from strategy and consultation towards the realities of delivery under the National Payments Vision.

Young Pham, chief strategy officer and SVP, head of banking and financial services at CI&T, shares his perspective on what happens when large-scale payments reform moves from policy ambition to system build, and why the decisions taken at this stage will influence how the UK’s future payments infrastructure performs in practice.

Young Pham, chief strategy officer and SVP, head of banking and financial services at CI&T,
Young Pham, chief strategy officer and SVP, head of banking and financial services at CI&T

There’s a pattern that plays out in most large infrastructure programmes. The early stages get all the attention – the strategy documents, the governance frameworks, the headline objectives. Then comes the part that actually determines whether the thing works. That’s the build. And in the UK’s payments reform, we’re now squarely in that territory.

For the best part of a year now, the conversation around the National Payments Vision has centred on direction and ambition. Fair enough – those conversations have needed to happen. But the publication of the Strategy for Future Retail Payments Infrastructure by the Payments Vision Delivery Committee in November 2025 shifted things.

It confirmed how HM Treasury and the relevant authorities plan to work together going forward, and it acknowledged something that people close to these programmes already know: the decisions made during build and early operation are the ones that stick.

So, the question now is less about what the UK wants its payments infrastructure to do, and more about how it gets put together – something which was kicked-off recently with the publication of the Payments Forward Plan by the Payments Vision Delivery Committee.

Who connects directly? How is responsibility divided up? What happens when volumes grow and existing rails need to coexist with new ones? Those are just some of the delivery questions that need to be asked, and they’re where experience from other national-scale instant payments systems starts to matter.

Lessons from Brazil’s PIX rollout

The National Payments Vision has acknowledged Brazil’s PIX as a leading example already operating at scale. Brazil is certainly a useful place to start. The country has been running an instant payments system embedded in everyday economic activity for several years, rather than confined to pilots or trials.

PIX was introduced in late 2020 as a central-bank operated instant payments platform, intended from the outset to support everyday payments across the economy rather than sit alongside existing schemes. Participation by major banks and payment providers was mandated on a fixed timetable, which meant scale was not something the system could grow into gradually. It had to be ready to carry volume from the start.

That approach placed much of the responsibility on the institutions themselves. Banks had to modify internal platforms to support continuous availability, update payment routing to accommodate identifiers such as phone numbers and QR codes, and handle fraud monitoring and settlement in real time across customer journeys that had previously depended on batch processing or restricted operating hours. Much of this work took place behind the scenes, within core banking systems that customers rarely see.

Adoption grew steadily as PIX was folded into routine activity, from person-to-person transfers through to retail payments and small business use. By 2024, the system was processing more than 60 billion transactions a year and had become a standard way for people to move money day-to-day.

As reliance increased, questions around transaction limits, access models, fraud controls and liability became operational concerns, handled daily by banks and payment providers responding to live behaviour. Choices made early in the build began to show up in practical ways, affecting cost, resilience and customer experience.

How infrastructure choices affect access

A common characteristic of large instant payments systems is that inclusion tends to emerge from how the infrastructure operates in practice, rather than how it is framed in policy discussions. Factors such as access rules, pricing models and participation requirements all affect who ends up using the system and how frequently, particularly once payment behaviour becomes routine.

In Brazil, low transaction costs combined with widespread availability shaped the way the system was adopted in everyday life. PIX became a common method for routine payments, used by individuals and small businesses alongside cards and cash. Its reach expanded through regular day-to-day use rather than through dedicated financial inclusion programmes.

The UK is starting from a different context, but some of the underlying pressures are similar. For smaller businesses, the cost and operational complexity of accepting multiple payment types remains a practical concern. Cash still plays an important role for parts of the population, while many digital payment tools have been designed primarily with mainstream convenience in mind rather than ease of use across every segment of society.

Clarity around responsibility

As PIX usage increased, fraud and misuse followed. This was expected but what mattered was how responsibility and controls were handled once behaviour patterns became clear. Transaction limits, monitoring and response processes evolved over time as banks and payment providers dealt with live conditions rather than theoretical scenarios.

At scale, instant payments concentrate risk in different ways to batch-based systems. Errors spread quicker. Irreversible transfers raise the stakes. Clear operational ownership becomes as essential as technical capability.

For the UK, this highlights the importance of clarity around responsibility as new infrastructure is introduced. How risk is handled in practice, across institutions and over time, will impact confidence in the system far more than stated safeguards alone.

The real work begins

Nobody remembers the press release. They remember whether the thing worked when they needed it to. That’s where the UK’s payments reform is heading now into a phase where the infrastructure either holds up under real use or it doesn’t. The announcements are done. What comes next is the part that people and businesses will actually feel.

Getting that right means taking the practical decisions seriously from the outset – how systems are sequenced, how risk is distributed, how institutions coordinate when things go wrong at pace. Anyone who has worked inside a large-scale instant payments build knows these are the details that define the outcome, long after the strategy documents have been filed away.

CIFR shares rise on new Hyperscaler agreement

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Cipher Digital (CIFR) shares jumped 9% in pre-market trading after the company, formerly a bitcoin miner, announced a new long-term data center lease and said it secured a $200 million revolving credit facility.

The company revealed a 15-year lease agreement with an investment-grade hyperscale tenant for its third data center campus. Cipher will develop and deliver a high-performance computing facility at an existing site, strengthening its position as a partner to large technology firms building AI infrastructure.

Cipher also announced a revolving credit facility of up to $200 million, with an additional $50 million accordion option. Backed by a syndicate of leading global banks, the facility provides non-dilutive capital to support expansion, boost liquidity, and fund future growth initiatives.

Cipher Digital, formerly known as Cipher Mining, has rebranded to reflect a strategic pivot away from bitcoin production toward the development of industrial-scale data centers for AI and cloud workloads. The move aligns the company with the rapidly growing demand for high-performance computing capacity.

Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta launches new AI initiative after metaverse retreat

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Mark Zuckerberg is launching Meta Small Business as a company-wide initiative to support entrepreneurship and accelerate AI adoption, Axios reported Wednesday.

The effort, led by Dina Powell McCormick, Meta’s president and vice chairman, and Naomi Gleit, who heads product development, will focus on building tools across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp to help small businesses grow and scale more easily in the AI era.

“In the AI era, it should be easier than ever for people to build new businesses,” Zuckerberg wrote in an internal post shared with employees. “We want to build the services that enable this.”

Meta focuses on AI after scaling back metaverse ambitions

The announcement comes as Meta intensifies its focus on artificial intelligence while dialing back its metaverse ambitions, following a multi-year push into virtual reality.

Last week, the company announced it would retire Horizon Worlds on Quest VR headsets, with VR access ending on June 15.

However, after creator backlash, the company clarified that while certain VR social hubs and internal studios are being phased out, existing VR worlds will remain accessible. The platform’s main growth focus has now shifted to its mobile and web apps.

The move was not entirely surprising, coming after Reality Labs layoffs and persistent losses. Horizon Worlds has struggled to attract a large user base since its launch in late 2021, leading Meta to separate its VR and mobile efforts for more focused growth.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Aave DAO Supports V4 Rollout Plan in Snapshot Vote

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Aave’s decentralized autonomous organization backed a proposal to move its V4 protocol toward deployment on Ethereum mainnet, signaling broader support for the upgrade after weeks of governance tension and contributor exits.

On Monday, the proposal to deploy Aave V4 on the Ethereum mainnet garnered near-unanimous support from the DAO, with more than 645,000 votes in favor and less than one vote against, and no abstentions, according to data from the offchain voting platform Snapshot.

The vote marks a shift from earlier divisions within the Aave community, signaling broad alignment around the protocol’s direction as it moves toward formalizing V4’s deployment.

According to Aave founder Stani Kulechov, the proposal is expected to advance toward an Aave Improvement Proposal (AIP) vote, a binding onchain vote that would allow the protocol to deploy and activate V4 on Ethereum. 

Aave DAO’s Snapshot vote to deploy V4 to Ethereum. Source: Snapshot

Aave V4 introduces a modular architecture for on-chain credit markets

Aave V4, proposed by Aave Labs on March 19, introduces a shift toward a more modular protocol design. It includes architecture intended to separate liquidity from market-specific risk. 

Under the model, shared liquidity pools, or “Hubs,” provide capital, while “Spokes” define distinct borrowing environments with tailored risk parameters and exposure limits. According to Aave Labs, the design “preserves the depth and efficiency of unified liquidity while allowing for more precise risk management.”

Related: Aave governance dispute escalates as ACI and Aave Labs publish dueling reports

Aave Labs said the new structure is designed to support a broader range of financial use cases, including assets with different risk profiles, maturities, or offchain dependencies.

According to the proposal, V4 would allow new collateral types and structured credit markets to emerge while maintaining unified liquidity. 

Near-unanimous vote follows exit of key Aave contributors

The strong backing for Aave V4 comes after a period of governance tension that saw several core contributors step back from the DAO. 

On Feb. 20, BGD Labs, a long-time technical contributor, said it would end its involvement with Aave after four years, citing an “asymmetric organizational scenario” and what it described as an “adversarial position” toward its work on the protocol’s existing version.

On March 3, the Aave Chan Initiative, a major governance delegate and service provider, also announced plans to exit after a clash over a proposed funding package. ACI founder Marc Zeller said the organization would wind down its operations after voicing concerns over governance standards and voting dynamics.