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Bitcoin Bull Phase Pattern Shows When BTC Price Will Bottom At $41,400

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Bitcoin could be gearing up for its next bull phase as a crypto analyst has outlined the timeline for when the BTC price may reach its bottom. Contrary to widespread belief, the analyst does not consider the previous cycle low around $60,000 to be the final bottom. Rather, he expects further downside in the market, forecasting a deeper move toward $41,400. From this projected price floor, the market could reset, potentially giving way to the next bull cycle.  

Bitcoin Past Cycle Patterns Signal Next Bottom 

A crypto market analyst known as Philarekt on X has predicted the precise timeline and target for Bitcoin’s final cycle bottom. To support his predictions, the expert presented a chart comparing Bitcoin’s past market cycles from 2013 to 2026, showing when each bull run began, when the bear market ended, and how long each phase lasted. 

According to Philarekt, Bitcoin’s bull phase usually begins the moment it confirms a final bottom and typically lasts about 1,450 days before reaching a peak and then reversing into a new bear market. In 2013, BTC peaked near $1,100 before falling more than 87% and forming a bottom about 365 days later. A similar trend appeared in the 2017 cycle, where Bitcoin topped around $19,000 after rallying for 1,450 days, then dropped more than 85% before bottoming in 2018, approximately 365 days later. 

During the historical 2021 cycle, the same behavior was observed. Bitcoin had reached an all-time high above $69,000 before declining by over 79% into its 2022 bear market bottom. Based on this repeating structure, Philarekt believes Bitcoin has already reached its highest price target for the current cycle and is now progressing toward its final bottom, which the analyst expects to form within the same 365-day timeframe. 

Bitcoin is now trading at $72,874. Chart: TradingView

BTC Price Projection And Bottom Target

While many analysts still expect a new all-time high to emerge in this cycle, Philarekt identifies the rally above $126,000 on October 6, 2025, as Bitcoin’s final top. He confirmed that BTC is now in a prolonged bear market, mostly trading sideways within a broader downtrend that has pushed its price as low as $60,000 since its peak. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading above $72,500, reflecting a more than 42% decline in value from its ATH. Based on Philarekt’s projections, BTC could still fall by around 64% from the $126,000 top, potentially marking the cryptocurrency’s price bottom at around $41,400. 

In terms of timing, Bitcoin is already 187 days into its bear market decline as of April 11, 2026, with only 178 days remaining until Philarekt’s projected bottom. This would place the cryptocurrency’s price floor around early October 2026, matching the timeline of its current ATH.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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Messaging Push Notification Logs Can Breach User Privacy: Pavel Durov

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Pavel Durov, the co-founder of the Telegram messaging application, said that push notifications create a persistent, critical vulnerability to user privacy, allowing data retrieval even after messages and messaging applications that allow push notification data storage have been deleted from a device.

Durov cited a recent report, originally published by 404 Media, that the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) was able to retrieve deleted messages from a Signal user by accessing device notification logs on an Apple iPhone. Durov said on Friday:

“Turning off notification previews won’t make you safe if you use those applications, because you never know whether the people you message have done the same.” 

Source: Pavel Durov

Cointelegraph reached out to Signal about the FBI’s data retrieval but did not receive a response by the time of publication. 

The recent reports highlight how investigators and those with sufficient technical skills can circumvent end-to-end encryption and breach user privacy by accessing metadata and other information generated by applications, prompting a need for decentralized messaging applications that do not collect such data. 

Related: Telegram founder Pavel Durov says Iranian government’s ban backfired

Alternative messaging application use surges amid spikes in civil unrest and geopolitical turmoil

Decentralized messaging applications and social media platforms experienced a surge in user interest since 2025, amid geopolitical tensions, nationwide communication blackouts and civil unrest.

Decentralization, Privacy, Telegram, Pavel Durov
Online search interest in decentralized social media platforms has spiked by 145% over the last five years. Source: Exploding Topics

Bitchat, a decentralized peer-to-peer messaging application that uses Bluetooth mesh networks to relay information between mobile devices, allows users to circumvent the internet and centralized communication networks entirely.

More than 48,000 users in Nepal downloaded the Bitchat application amid a nationwide social media ban in September 2025.

Individuals are also finding ways to circumvent national firewalls and bans on privacy-preserving applications by using virtual private networks (VPNs) and other tools that mask or obscure IP addresses and geolocation, according to Durov.

Government bans on Telegram have backfired, as users circumvent state-imposed restrictions through VPNs, allowing them to access and download banned platforms, Durov said.

“The government hoped for mass adoption of its surveillance messaging apps, but got mass adoption of VPNs instead,” he continued, adding that over 50 million users in Iran have downloaded the Telegram application, despite a years-long government ban.

Magazine: EU’s privacy-killing Chat Control bill delayed — but fight isn’t over