Somebody is buying $2.1 billion of bitcoin through ETFs. Somebody else is using that bid to get out.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have now logged eight straight days of inflows totaling $2.10 billion through April 23, per SoSoValue. That is the longest streak since the nine-day October 2025 run that took bitcoin to its $126,000 all-time high. April 23 alone brought $223.21 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT doing roughly 75% of the lifting at $167.49 million and Fidelity’s FBTC the one meaningful outflow at $16.93 million.
Bitcoin has climbed from $68,000 to $77,000 over the streak, a 12% move that has coincided almost perfectly with the ETF bid returning. Cumulative ETF net inflows since launch now sit at $58 billion, and total assets hit $102 billion, which is 6.5% of bitcoin’s market cap.
But here is the part the ETF data does not tell.
A Glassnode report from earlier this week showed that bitcoin just reclaimed its True Market Mean at $78,100, which tracks the average cost basis of actively transacted supply. That is the first time that level has been reclaimed since mid-January, and historically marks the transition from bear-market conditions to something more constructive.
The problem is the next level. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis sits at $80,100, which is the average entry price for anyone who bought in the last 155 days. A move above it would push more than 54% of recent buyers into profit.
In every prior instance this cycle, that threshold has coincided with local top formation as short-term holders use the rally to break even and exit. This is the second time the structure has set up, and it broke down the first time.
Short-term holder realized profit has already spiked to $4.4 million per hour, per Glassnode. The $1.5 million threshold has preceded every local top year-to-date. The current reading is three times that.
The setup from here is specific. Funding on bitcoin perpetuals is still negative, meaning shorts are paying longs. Saturday’s short squeeze took bitcoin to $78,000 briefly before the Hormuz reversal pulled it back.
A second squeeze, stacked on the ETF bid and the spot demand Glassnode has flagged as recovering on offshore venues, is the clean path to $80,000. Whether that break holds against short-term holder distribution, or gets sold into the same way every local top has been sold this cycle, is the trade.
March’s seven-day streak broke the same week price tagged its local high. IBIT has carried most of the current run alone while smaller issuers posted mixed flows. The structure is not identical but the pattern rhymes.
The ETF bid is real. The exit liquidity for short-term holders it provides is also real. Which side wins at $80,000 is worth watching.
What has been the wider digital and fintech ecosystem like in the African island nation of Madagascar? And its economic development impact?
Madagascar’s fintech story in 2026 is not one of rapid disruption, but of gradual, necessity-driven inclusion. In a country where geography, income levels and infrastructure constraints have long limited access to formal financial services, digital finance is emerging as a quiet but powerful enabler.
Madagascar’s economy remains modest in size, anchored in agriculture (vanilla, cloves, rice), mining (nickel, cobalt), textiles and a growing services sector, particularly trade and telecommunications. However, the country is amongst one of the poorer ones in Africa, with a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita at a mere $600. Persistent development challenges keep it in its low-income status, according to the World Bank.
Digital economic transformation: inclusion through connectivity
Madagascar’s digital transformation is shaped by structural constraints. This is noticeable especially in the rural areas with limited physical infrastructure. As a result, digital technologies are increasingly seen as a means to overcome geographic barriers and expand economic participation.
Mobile penetration has reached approximately 75 per cent, while internet penetration remains lower at around 40 per cent.
Government and development partners such as the World Bank and the United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF) have prioritized the expansion of mobile and internet connectivity, digitisation of public services and payments, and support for digital entrepreneurship and small and medium enterprise (SME) development.
The country’s financial hub is Antananarivo, where regulatory institutions, banks and emerging fintech activity are concentrated. One of the largest banks is Bank of Africa Madagascar, part of the wider Bank of Africa Group, which has been active in expanding financial services and digital banking capabilities.
Madagascar’s financial services sector has historically been underdeveloped, with limited banking infrastructure and low levels of financial inclusion. However, digital financial services, specifically mobile money, are beginning to reshape the landscape.
Mobile money platforms have become the primary entry point into financial services, enabling people in Madagascar to send and receive money, pay for goods and services, and access basic financial tools. Like much of
This shift reflects a broader trend across sub-Saharan Africa, where mobile money is bypassing traditional banking exclusion.
The Central Bank of Madagascar (Banque Centrale de Madagascar in French – one of the country’s official languages) has implemented various initiatives to try to bring the country into a future that is more financially included.
First, the central bank has worked to strengthen payment infrastructure, promoting interoperability between banks and mobile money operators and improving transaction efficiency. This is helping to modernise the national payments system.
Second, with respect to promotion of mobile money and digital payments, as mentioned earlier, policies have encouraged the expansion of mobile financial services. This has helped recognised mobile money’s role in financial inclusion.
Third, pertaining to regulatory frameworks for electronic money institutions, the central bank has strengthened oversight of mobile money providers and payment service operators, ensuring stability and consumer protection.
Fourth, on national financial inclusion strategy implementation, efforts have focused on expanding access to financial services, particularly for rural populations and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Madagascar’s fintech strategy is heavily anchored in its National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS 2018-2022) and subsequent initiatives aimed at transitioning from a cash-based economy to a digital-first ecosystem.
To note, as a country as a whole, last year Madagascar launched its digital initiative, Choose Digital Madagascar, to attract investments in the digital economy. It aims at structuring and energizing the country’s digital ecosystem to position it as a global tech hub, attract investors, and showcase local talent.
Financial inclusion in Madagascar remains limited, but progress is being made. Estimates suggest that approximately 25 per cent of adults have access to a formal bank account, while a larger share engages with mobile money services.
This highlights a key dynamic. Traditional banking access is low, but digital channels are expanding reach.
While usage remains concentrated in payments, there is growing potential for expansion into credit, savings and insurance.
Fintech ecosystem: small but growing
Madagascar’s fintech ecosystem is still nascent, with an estimated 20 fintech and digital financial service providers, primarily focused on payments and mobile money.
Key players in the country include the likes of MVola, which is a leading mobile money service enabling payments, transfers and financial inclusion.
In terms of financial institutions and telecoms, examples of wider digital finance include: Orange Money Madagascar (They are providing digital financial services across urban and rural areas), Airtel Money Madagascar (Expanding access to mobile-based financial services), and Bank of Africa Madagascar (Supporting digital banking and financial inclusion initiatives).
These players illustrate a key characteristic of Madagascar’s fintech landscape: telecom-led and bank-supported innovation, rather than a large independent startup ecosystem. This is similar across in other parts of the African continent.
Conclusion: inclusion through incremental progress
Madagascar’s fintech journey is gradual but meaningful. While challenges remain, Madagascar is laying the foundations for a more inclusive financial system. This is demonstrating that even modest progress can create tangible improvements in economic participation over time.
Japanese bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet is back in the market with another round of balance-sheet leverage, issuing 8 billion yen, worth roughly $50 million, in zero-interest ordinary bonds to finance future bitcoin purchases.
In a Friday filing, the company said the latest issuance was fully taken up by EVO Fund, a Cayman Islands-based investor that has repeatedly anchored Metaplanet’s previous offerings. It also marks the firm’s 20th bond issuance, underscoring its long favored strategy of tapping debt markets to fund bitcoin accumulation.
Metaplanet, now Japan’s largest corporate bitcoin holder, has maintained a steady buying spree since April 2024, adding 5,075 BTC in the first quarter alone. As of writing, it held 40,177 BTC, which makes it the third-largest listed bitcoin treasury globally, according to BitcoinTreasuries.
The aggressive accumulation continues even as the firm faces deep paper losses. Metaplanet reported a $619 million net loss for fiscal 2025, largely driven by unrealized markdowns on its bitcoin stack.
The broader backdrop, however, has been volatile rather than outright bearish. Bitcoin, which briefly surged to an all-time high near $126,000 in October 2025, has since pulled back amid geopolitical shocks in the Middle East. It is currently trading around $77,800, still up roughly 10% over the past month as risk sentiment stabilizes.
WHY THIS MATTERS: This multi-year mandate underscores a critical acceleration in the core modernization trend among specialized European lenders. For Eiendomskreditt, transitioning its commercial real estate lending to a cloud-native core is a direct investment in competitive agility. While traditional banks struggle with monolithic systems that prevent product customization, this move towards a composable banking architecture allows a niche player to streamline complex operations—such as loan origination and portfolio management—for operational efficiency. This choice validates the strategy of separating the core ledger (Mambu) from integration layers (Knowit’s BankConnect) to achieve scalability and foster faster product development. The entire industry is watching how successfully this model delivers the promised flexibility required to dominate a specialized lending segment over the next five years.
Eiendomskreditt has selected Knowit and Mambu to modernise its core banking platform, marking an important milestone in the company’s continued digital transformation. The new solution, powered by Mambu’s cloud-native core banking technology and seamlessly integrated through Knowit’s BankConnect platform, will replace the existing solution and provide a modern, flexible and future-ready foundation for mortgage lending.
Eiendomskreditt AS is a specialised financial services provider offering commercial real estate lending across Norway. To support future growth and evolving market requirements, Eiendomskreditt requires a modern core banking platform capable of delivering increased flexibility, scalability and operational efficiency.
The new solution will streamline processes related to loan origination, product configuration, credit handling and portfolio management, while improving data quality and enabling better real-time insight. These improvements will support Eiendomskreditt’s ambition to deliver efficient, compliant and customer-oriented lending services.
Knowit will act as the main contracting partner and system integrator for the project, delivering the BankConnect integration platform and ensuring seamless integration across the solution landscape. Mambu will provide the core banking engine as a cloud-native SaaS platform along with AWS as cloud service provider.
Together, Knowit and Mambu will deliver a robust and scalable architecture designed to meet both current and future business requirements, while enabling faster innovation and reduced operational complexity.
“This project represents an important step in strengthening Eiendomskreditt’s technological foundation. By combining Mambu’s flexible core banking platform with Knowit’s integration expertise and BankConnect, we are delivering a solution that supports future growth, regulatory requirements and efficient operations,” saysEirik N. Christensen, CEO at Eiendomskreditt AS.
“We are proud to support Eiendomskreditt in modernising its core banking capabilities. Together with Mambu, we deliver a flexible and scalable platform that enables faster product development, improved data insight and a future-proof architecture,” says Rune Ivarsflaten, CEO Knowit Financial Solutions.
“Transforming a core banking stack is a significant move, which is why Eiendomskreditt chose the most proven cloud-native ecosystem in the Norwegian market. The Mambu and Knowit partnership delivers a modern foundation that provides the agility and scalability needed to grow and we are excited to support them as they continue to evolve,” says Jorno Levels, Commercial Lead Nordics at Mambu.
The agreement includes implementation of the new core banking platform with the project spanning over five years. The project has already been started.
FF NEWS TAKE: This agreement is highly significant for the Nordic region, confirming the strength of the Mambu and Knowit partnership ecosystem in tackling complex, multi-year core replacement projects. Replacing the entire core banking stack for a specialized real estate lender is not trivial, and this move definitively pushes the needle toward full cloud-native adoption for even regulated commercial lending. The key watchpoint now is the delivery of quantifiable improvements in time-to-market for new loan products and the tangible reduction in operational complexity over the first two years.
Investment banking giant Morgan Stanley has made a quiet by significant move into stablecoins, expanding its footprint in the digital assets industry.
The firm’s investment management arm, MSIM, has announced the launch of the Stablecoin Reserves Portfolio – a government money market fund designed for issuers of stablecoins who need a regulated, safe place to store the reserves backing their tokenized versions of fiat currencies.
Here is the simple version of what the fund is designed to do.
When a company issues a stablecoin – a digital token pegged to the U.S. dollar or other fiat currencies – it must hold real dollars in reserve to back every token created. Think of it like a guarantee: for every blockchain-based dollar issued, a real dollar must exist somewhere safe and accessible. Morgan Stanley’s new fund is that place.
The fund (MSNXX) invests only in the safest and most liquid instruments, such as the U.S. Treasury bills, which are short-term loans to the U.S. government. The yield on these is widely considered the closest thing to a risk-free return. It also invests in repurchase agreements, or repos, which are overnight loans backed by those same government securities. Both instruments are designed to preserve capital.
The fund targets a $1 net asset value, meaning every dollar put into the fund is worth exactly the same when taken out, helping bypass price fluctuations. That is different from routine funds, where the value of your investment rises and falls daily. Further, the fund offers daily liquidity, meaning investors can withdraw their money on any business day without a waiting period or penalty.
“We are pleased to deliver a new investment solution to the marketplace that seeks to address the needs of stablecoin issuers,” Fred McMullen, co-head of global liquidity, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said in the press release.
“The significant increase in stablecoin issuers as well as the growing number of assets held in stablecoins represents an evolving portion of the marketplace that is ripe for future growth,” he added.
Stablecoins have seen their market capitalization grow multiple-fold in recent years, reaching $316 billion, with dollar-pegged tokens such as Tether and USDC making up the bulk of the total. While initially used primarily to facilitate crypto trading, stablecoins have gradually expanded into real-world use cases, including remittances and cross-border capital transfers.
The sector therefore stands out as perhaps the only one with a clear real-world use case, while the broader market remains largely speculative.
Why now?
Morgan Stanley’s new fund comes as the GENUIS ACT – the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act – is currently moving through Congress. If passed, it would legally require stablecoin issuers to back their tokens with high-quality liquid assets such as Treasury bills and cash-like instruments. And these will have to be held in regulated vehicles.
The fund is therefore positioned to capture reserve management business before it becomes mandatory.
Part of a bigger push
Morgan Stanley Investment Management recently launched the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT), a cryptocurrency ETP designed to track bitcoin, with BNY Mellon providing custody and fund administration services.
It also introduced tokenized DAP Class shares of its Institutional Liquidity Funds Treasury Securities Portfolio in partnership with BNY, enabling blockchain-based mirrored records. At the same time, BNY retains the official books and records.
“We have actively engaged across the industry to develop the ability to offer digital asset related liquidity solutions,” said McMullen. “While still in the early stages, these recent product launches signify our commitment to develop relevant, timely solutions that may address evolving investor needs in an increasingly digital marketplace.”
Prediction markets have a consistent line: their products are financial instruments, not bets. Wisconsin isn’t buying it, and in a new complaint targeting Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket, Robinhood and Crypto.com, the state is citing the companies’ own marketing to call them unlicensed gambling venues.
“Thinly disguising unlawful conduct doesn’t make it lawful,” Attorney General Josh Kaul said in a press release announcing the complaints on Thursday.
The question underneath the lawsuits is straightforward: are these contracts financial instruments under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), or bets under state gambling law? The answer determines whether a fast-growing market operates under a single federal rulebook or is carved up across 50 states under the jurisdiction of local gaming regulators. And it’s almost certainly headed to the Supreme Court.
Wisconsin’s complaints, filed in Dane County, target three parallel ecosystems.
One names Crypto.com and its derivatives arm. Another goes after Polymarket and affiliated entities. A third pulls in Kalshi alongside distribution partners Robinhood and Coinbase (both Robinhood and Coinbase route prediction market orders to Kalshi), arguing the platforms together facilitate sports betting for state residents.
Across all three, the legal theory is that so-called “event contracts” are wagers: users pay money to take a position on a real-world outcome and receive a fixed payout if they are correct.
In one example cited in the filings, traders could buy contracts tied to NCAA tournament games at prices that reflect implied probabilities, with winning positions paying out $1 and losing ones returning nothing.
State prosecutors also cite Kalshi’s own Instagram ads, which claim the platform is “The First Nationwide Legal Sports Betting Platform,” and Polymarket’s, which calls itself “a platform where people can bet on the outcome of future events.”
The state argued that the structure of prediction markets falls squarely within its statutory definition of a bet, regardless of how the products are labeled or who takes the other side of the trade.
The complaints also emphasize that platforms generate revenue by charging transaction fees on each contract, likening the model to a casino taking a cut of wagers placed on its floor.
Setting up a federalism fight
The industry’s defense rests on federal preemption. Kalshi, in particular, has argued that its contracts are swaps listed on a regulated exchange and therefore fall under the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction.
That position received a boost earlier this month when the Third Circuit sided with the company, treating the regulator’s decision not to block the contracts as effectively settling the jurisdictional question.
Across the U.S., state courts are consistent in taking a different position.
Nevada called the contracts “indistinguishable” from gambling. New York AG Letitia James said “each contract is a bet.”.
For now, Wisconsin’s suits add to a growing list of state challenges, each building a record that could ultimately force the Supreme Court of the United States to decide whether calling something a financial contract is enough to keep it from being treated as a bet.
Cryptocurrency markets remained on the back foot Friday as macroeconomic signals from Japan, one of the world’s largest economies, compounded uncertainty driven by the Iran war.
Bitcoin BTC$77,696.95 hovered near $77,800, having struggled to break above the Thursday high of $78,700 during the early Asian trading hours, according to CoinDesk data. The broader uptrend, which began in late March near the $65,000 mark, appears to have stalled since Wednesday.
Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, traded around $2,300, slipping 0.8% since midnight UTC and underperforming bitcoin’s relatively modest 0.6% decline.
The cautious tone in crypto markets coincided with fresh inflation data out of Japan. The country’s Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) rose 3.1% year-on-year in March, exceeding forecasts of 3.0% and underscoring persistent price pressures in the services sector.
Additional government data showed core inflation rising to 1.8% in March from 1.6% in February, marking the first acceleration in five months. Headline inflation edged up to 1.5% from 1.3%, though it remained below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a second consecutive month. Meanwhile, core-core inflation, which excludes both fresh food and energy, eased to 2.4%, its lowest level since October 2024.
The uptick in headline inflation aligns with rising energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions, particularly disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing Iran conflict.
apan, a major crude importer, remains especially vulnerable to such price shocks. WTI crude futures have risen over 40% to $96 since the onset of the Iran war in late February.
Market participants are now turning their attention to the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting. Analysts at InvestingLive suggest a shift in tone may be imminent. “The Bank of Japan looks set to hold fire next week but deliver a pointed warning that rates are heading higher, with June firmly in play as war-driven inflation risks build,” analysts said.
Hints of tighter monetary policy and potential rate hikes could lift the Japanese yen (JPY) and influence global market sentiment. It’s especially plausible now, given that speculative positioning in the yen is currently bearish, according to the latest CFTC data. As a result, there is room for a sharp bullish reaction in the yen if the Bank of Japan turns hawkish.
As for the broader market impact, a stronger yen may not be favorable. Historically, the yen has been used to fund purchases of risk assets worldwide. A sudden appreciation in the currency could therefore trigger an unwinding of those trades, leading to increased risk aversion.
Speaking of the Iran war, Iran has deployed additional naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz this week, according to Axios. Shipping traffic through the Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of the world’s seaborne oil, fallen sharply since the conflict intensified.
The Pentagon warned lawmakers that it would take at least six months to clear mines in the Strait, with the process only beginning after the war ends. It also cautioned that inflation in the U.S. could remain elevated this year, potentially making it harder for the Fed to cut rates.
More than 100 crypto firms and industry groups are pressing the U.S. Senate to advance long-awaited market structure legislation, warning that continued inaction risks pushing innovation and capital outside the country.
In a joint letter sent April 23, the Crypto Council for Innovation and the Blockchain Association urged the Senate Banking Committee to move forward with a markup of the “Clarity Act,” a bill designed to establish a comprehensive federal framework for digital assets.
The letter, seen by Bitcoin Magazine, was addressed to Committee Chairman Tim Scott, Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren, Subcommittee Chair Cynthia Lummis, and Ranking Member Ruben Gallego, reflecting growing industry coordination around a single legislative priority: regulatory clarity.
Signatories include major crypto companies such as Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken, and Circle, along with venture firms and developer organizations. Collectively, the coalition represents a broad cross-section of the digital asset ecosystem, from infrastructure providers to academic groups.
At the center of the push is the need to clearly define jurisdiction between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The absence of statutory guidance has led to what the industry describes as “regulation by enforcement,” referencing a wave of lawsuits and actions brought by both agencies in recent years.
While regulators have attempted to assert oversight through litigation, the coalition argues that agency action alone cannot provide the durable, predictable framework required for long-term investment. Instead, it calls for Congress to codify clear rules governing digital asset classification, trading, and disclosure requirements.
Crypto innovation will leave the United States
The letter outlines several additional priorities. These include protections for developers building non-custodial technologies, preservation of consumer rewards tied to payment stablecoins, and streamlined disclosure regimes tailored to blockchain-based assets. It also emphasizes the importance of avoiding a fragmented system of state-by-state regulation, advocating for a unified federal standard.
Industry leaders warn that the U.S. is falling behind other jurisdictions that have already implemented comprehensive crypto frameworks.
The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation, for example, has provided legal certainty across member states, positioning the bloc as a competitive hub for digital asset innovation.
Ji Hun Kim, chief executive of the Crypto Council for Innovation, said in a statement that the U.S. faces a “critical moment” in shaping the future of financial technology. He argued that bipartisan groundwork already laid in Congress, alongside efforts such as the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, provides a foundation for broader legislation.
“The United States cannot risk a return to the previous era of regulation by enforcement,” the letter states. “Market structure legislation would prevent that uncertainty by establishing clear jurisdictional boundaries, disclosure regimes, and fit-for-purpose rules.”
Despite the urgency conveyed by the coalition, the Senate Banking Committee has yet to schedule a markup of the Clarity Act. The delay leaves the industry in a holding pattern as lawmakers continue to negotiate the contours of federal crypto oversight.
Yesterday, U.S Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Senate to pass the legislation during a hearing on Donald Trump’s FY2027 budget, arguing it is critical to maintaining U.S. financial leadership and the dollar’s reserve status.
He framed digital assets as both an economic and national security priority, emphasizing the need for regulatory clarity and stronger oversight frameworks like AML and KYC. Lawmakers remain divided, with competing bills such as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act and the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act still needing reconciliation before advancing. Bessent also warned that unclear U.S. rules have pushed crypto innovation abroad, while expressing confidence that bipartisan agreement is still achievable.
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Microsoft will make its largest-ever investment in Australia, earmarked to improve the country’s AI architecture, cybersecurity and upskilling programs.
The $18 billion expenditure, announced by Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Thursday, follows a previous $3.4 billion commitment from the tech giant in 2023 and covers its plans until the end of 2029.
Among the priorities for the new funding is expanding Microsoft’s Azure cloud infrastructure across Australia, boosting the country’s AI compute capacity, and deploying advanced AI processors.
The tech giant is currently building data centers near Canberra, and in New South Wales and Victoria.
The new investment was accompanied by a memorandum of understanding that requires Microsoft to adhere to the Australian government’s recently published list of expectations and requirements for new AI data centers.
Related:SpaceX Agrees to Potential $60B Deal to Acquire Cursor
Microsoft has also undertaken to collaborate with the recently established Australian AI Safety Institute, an initiative created to test and evaluate AI systems to prevent harm to humans in interactions with AI.
Cybersecurity is covered in the deal with an extension of the Microsoft–Australian Signals Directorate Cyber Shield partnership established in 2023, with more federal agencies joining the program and the vendor strengthening existing protections. In addition, Microsoft will now work more closely with Home Affairs to keep critical government systems secure.
Training has become a key focus, with Microsoft aiming to ensure about three million Australians have workforce-ready AI skills by the end of 2028. The vendor will also introduce its Elevate for Educators AI program.
“We want to make sure all Australians benefit from AI. Our national AI Plan is all about capturing the economic opportunities of this transformative technology while protecting Australians from the risks,” Albanese said in a statement. Microsoft’s long-term investment in our national capability will help deliver on that plan — strengthening our cyber defenses and creating opportunity for Australian workers and businesses.”
Microsoft’s investment is another major AI deal for Albanese, whose government has also e entered into agreements with AWS ($13 billion) and OpenAI ($ 5billion) over the past year.
For Microsoft, the Australian agreement marks the continuation of a heavy month of spending, which has seen infrastructure commitments worth billions of dollars made in Singapore, Thailand and Japan.
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Data shows the Bitcoin long-term holders have witnessed a notable surge in their supply recently, a sign that market behavior has been shifting.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Has Gone Up Over The Past Month
According to data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin supply has been moving into the hands of the long-term holders recently. The “long-term holders” (LTHs) here refer to the BTC investors who have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago.
Statistically, the longer investors keep their tokens dormant, the less likely they become to transfer them in the future. As such, the LTHs with their relatively long holding time are considered to represent the resolute side of the market.
Now, here is a chart that shows the 30-day netflow in the supply of these Bitcoin diamond hands over the last couple of years:
The value of the metric appears to have been positive in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant on X
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin LTHs have seen their 30-day netflow sit at notable positive levels recently, suggesting that tokens have been maturing into the cohort. More specifically, 303,500 BTC entered the group over the past month.
In the second half of last year, the LTHs were participating in net distribution, and their selloff intensified as the price plunged in the fourth quarter. The pattern started to shift in January 2026, with HODLing behavior in the market ramping up during the post-February crash consolidation phase.
While this development has happened, the short-term holders (STHs), corresponding to buyers from the last five months, have naturally observed a decline in their supply.
In the same period, the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Strategy have also absorbed a chunk of the supply, with their holdings rising by 16,800 and 53,000 coins, respectively. Based on the trend, CryptoQuant has noted, “Bitcoin supply is moving into stronger hands.”
In some other news, the latest Bitcoin recovery rally doesn’t find spot demand at its source, as explained by CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno in an X post.
The futures and spot demand in the BTC market compared | Source: @jjcmoreno on X
From the above chart, it’s visible that the change in the BTC spot demand has mostly been negative for the last few months and the latest rally hasn’t seen the trend shift. Meanwhile, the futures market has seen demand climb instead. “The recent Bitcoin price increase is completely driven by demand in the perpetual futures market,” said Moreno.
A similar pattern was witnessed during the January BTC price rally, but without spot demand, that run couldn’t last. “There are risks of a correction if traders start taking profits while spot demand continues to contract,” noted the analyst.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $77,600, up 4% in the last seven days.
Looks like the price of the coin has surged recently | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
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