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Historical Data Says Bitcoin Price Has Never Beaten This Level, Will It Start Now?

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Bitcoin’s price action has been climbing steadily off its February low around $61,300, but what stands directly ahead is not just another resistance zone. It is a statistical threshold that has held firm through multiple market cycles.

According to data, every time Bitcoin has staged a 30% recovery from a cycle low, it has gone on to new highs without revisiting that low. The record is six for six, covering more than 13 years of market history. 

The 30% Bitcoin Recovery Rule

Bitcoin dropped to a yearly low near $61,300 in early February during a broad market sell-off that spread across both crypto and traditional risk assets. That has been the most recent bottom for this year, and the cryptocurrency has mostly held up above this point despite multiple calls of new bottoms below $50,000 from multiple analysts.

A dataset highlighted by market participant Isaiah Douglass has brought attention to Bitcoin’s recovery after this low. The claim is that once Bitcoin recovers 30% from a cycle low, it has never gone back to retest that low.

The pattern appears unusually consistent when looking back across Bitcoin’s major cycle. From November 2011 to August 2024, every major Bitcoin cycle low has produced the same outcome: once the price climbed 30% above the bottom, that low was permanently left behind.

The earliest example came in November 2011, when Bitcoin bottomed at $2.01. The 30% recovery level of $2.61 was cleared in February 2012, and Bitcoin went on to peak at $1,163, a gain of more than 57,000%. The pattern held through the January 2015 low of $152, the March 2020 crash low of $3,858, and the June 2022 low of $17,592. Even the November 2022 low of $15,460, set in the aftermath of the FTX collapse, followed the same trajectory.

Bitcoin Cycle Lows And 30% Recovery. Source: @IDFinancial On X

Next Confirmation Level For Bitcoin

Now, the current cycle is nearing that same line of no return. The current setup and projection is based on the year-to-date low of $61,303. A 30% recovery from that figure places the confirmation level at $79,694. 

BTCUSD currently trading at $77,481. Chart: TradingView

Bitcoin has already climbed to $79,000 this week, leaving it just a fraction below a level that has historically separated uncertainty from early bull market conviction. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,620, which means that it has recovered approximately 28% from that low. All it needs now is a further 2.7% increase until it crosses a level of no return. 

The historical data gains additional weight when measured against current market structure. Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen to new lows, while whale accumulation over the past 30 days reached its largest monthly total since 2013, with large addresses adding approximately 270,000 BTC.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

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Why investors are flocking to BlackRock’s bitcoin options to hedge against a wild global economy

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Something notable happened on Friday, indicating the accelerating institutionalization of the bitcoin market, which has been pioneered by everyday people for years.

This is because options, or hedging instruments, linked to BlackRock’s bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), IBIT, have grown slightly larger on Nasdaq than total bitcoin options trading on the offshore giant Deribit. It is particularly striking that IBIT options have, in just two years, closed the gap with Deribit’s bitcoin options market, which has been operating since 2016.

On Friday, the dollar value of open or active IBIT options contracts on Nasdaq, the so-called open interest (OI), was $27.61 billion, slightly higher than the $26.90 billion in Deribit’s bitcoin options, according to data tracked by decentralized crypto volatility protocol Volmex.

This milestone indicates that the regulated, institutional-grade bitcoin investment and derivatives infrastructure in the U.S. is no longer second fiddle to the offshore market. Moreover, a booming, regulated market in the U.S. could embolden more Wall Street institutions to explore digital assets, ultimately leading to more mature price discovery.

Deribit’s Global Head of Retail Sales and Business, Sidrah Fariq, described IBIT’s rise as a net positive for the broader crypto derivatives ecosystem.

“US retail can’t onboard platforms like Deribit, so iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) options give them direct access to regulated leverage and options exposure. This is further supported by the current macro environment with supply chain uncertainty, energy shocks, and broader geopolitical risks, which naturally drives demand for hedging and options strategies,” Fariq told CoinDesk.

What are options?

Options are derivative contracts that give the purchaser the right to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price at a later date. Think of it as paying a token price to reserve the right to buy or sell the property at a pre-agreed specific price in the future. A call option gives the right to buy and represents a bullish bet, while a put option gives the right to sell.

Analysts use open interest as the measure of market size and participation – the higher the open interest, the deeper and more liquid the market.

Traders use options to hedge existing positions in the spot and futures markets, speculate on price direction, and generate additional income on coin/ETF holdings.

One of the most preferred income-generating strategies involving IBIT ETF and IBIT options is the covered call strategy. It allows investors to profit from BTC’s implied volatility by simultaneously holding the ETF and shorting IBIT calls at levels well above the ETF’s current market price.

Traders holding actual BTC have been doing this via Deribit for years.

Same in size but different in shape

The two markets, though, now match each other in scale but are positioned differently, revealing a lot about trader sentiment in each.

According to Volmex, the bulk of open interest in IBIT call options points to expectations of an ETF rallying to levels equivalent to BTC trading at $109,709 in the near-term. That’s roughly 41% higher than the current market price of $77,400.

Positioning in Deribit options is bullish but slightly measured, suggesting expectations of a rally to $106,000.

“Onshore call OI is concentrated roughly 4 percentage points further out-of-the-money than offshore, and the onshore average delta is slightly lower. This is consistent with onshore flow being dominated by retail upside speculation and systematic call overwriting programs, both of which concentrate OI in further-OTM strikes,” Volmex said in a report shared with CoinDesk.

ETF holders are more patient

Options have expiry dates – the point at which contracts are settled, depending on where IBIT or spot BTC is trading at that time.

Analysis of activity across both markets suggests that, on average, October 2026 expiries are preferred in IBIT, while August expiries dominate on Deribit.

“IBIT options are approximately two months longer-dated on an OI-weighted basis. The gap is roughly symmetric across puts and calls, suggesting it reflects the underlying holder base, longer-horizon ETF investors onshore versus more tactical positioning offshore, rather than asymmetric demand for protection or upside,” Volmex noted.

Lastly, IBIT’s implied volatility – a metric that measures expected swings in the BTC-linked ETF over the next four weeks – is higher than the implied volatility derived from Deribit’s BTC options.

Volmex attributes this premium to a structural quirk: Because ETF holders cannot easily short (express a bearish view) bitcoin directly, they buy put options as their only available hedge. This demand for put options is keeping IBIT’s implied volatility slightly elevated.

All things considered, IBIT’s rapid rise in the options market is striking and, in many ways, now appears to rival Deribit in scale. However, the two are not direct substitutes, as IBIT options primarily cater to regulated, onshore investors accessing bitcoin exposure through traditional brokerage channels, while Deribit remains the go-to place for global investors.

“I don’t see this as competition. If anything, it expands the market. As more participants get comfortable trading options via IBIT, it ultimately feeds into the broader ecosystem, and venues like Deribit benefit from increased sophistication and flow,” Fariq said.

Iran’s Crypto Lifeline Hit As US Freezes $344 Million In Funds

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Iran had already begun collecting crypto payments from ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz when US authorities moved to cut off the money.

On Friday, the Treasury Department announced it had frozen over $340 million in cryptocurrency tied to Iranian military and political groups — the same amount stablecoin issuer Tether had quietly locked down just 24 hours earlier.

Bitcoin Tolls At A Global Chokepoint

Reports say Iran had been charging vessels in Bitcoin for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes for oil and other cargo. Reports disclose that Iran had already banked revenue from those crypto tolls.

The move came amid an ongoing standoff over the strait, where Iranian forces reportedly attacked three ships and US naval forces established a blockade.

US President Donald Trump said this week that the US and Iran had reached a ceasefire agreement. But tensions on the water tell a different story. The attacks on commercial ships and the US blockade suggest the situation remains far from settled.

Treasury Moves Against Iranian Wallets

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted Friday on X that the Office of Foreign Assets Control had sanctioned two cryptocurrency addresses on the Tron blockchain. The wallets, officials said, were connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hizballah. Combined, they held $344 million.

“We will follow the money that Tehran is desperately attempting to move outside of the country and target all financial lifelines tied to the regime,” Bessent said. The freeze, he added, was part of a broader effort to “systematically degrade Tehran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds.”

BTCUSD now trading at $77,422. Chart: TradingView

The announcement came one day after Tether disclosed that it had frozen over $344 million of its USDt stablecoin at the request of US law enforcement. At the time, the company cited “activity tied to unlawful conduct” but did not name Iran. Treasury’s Friday notice made the connection explicit.

The US and Israel had launched joint airstrikes against Iran back in late February. Since then, American financial pressure on Tehran has intensified across both traditional and crypto markets.

Crypto’s Limits As A Sanctions Workaround

Iran’s attempt to use cryptocurrency as a financial workaround ran into a hard wall. The Tron addresses flagged by OFAC now appear on the agency’s Specially Designated Nationals list, effectively making them off-limits for any US person or entity to deal with.

The episode shows how Iran’s crypto lifeline, including the $344 million frozen across those two Tron wallets, can still be disrupted through centralized stablecoin issuers willing to act on law enforcement requests. Tether’s compliance with the US request happened before the public sanctions notice was even issued.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

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Trump defends crypto legislation at private event featuring boxer Mike Tyson, Tether CEO

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A few hundred of the top $TRUMP memecoin holders were treated to some personal time with U.S. President Donald Trump and his high-profile guests on Saturday at an event at his Florida club in which Trump warned bankers against getting in the way of crypto legislation.

Speaking at the private Mar-a-Lago gathering in Palm Beach, Florida, Trump took up the stance his White House crypto advisers had occupied on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. He pushed back against the bank lobbyists who’d stalled the legislation — the crypto industry’s primary policy aim.

The White House won’t let the banks ruin the crypto market structure legislation, Trump said at the event, a finance-focused gathering billed as “the most exclusive conference in the world.”

In negotiations over recent months, banking groups had won over some senators over their concerns about how U.S. regulations would pave the way for stablecoin rewards programs that the bankers argued could threaten their traditional deposit accounts. The objection derailed Senate progress on the effort to win a new U.S. regulatory regime for crypto, though recent discussions suggest the bill could still get back on track and has a potential path to survive a tightening lawmaking calendar this year. Trump has signaled that’s a priority.

The president’s event featured a roster of crypto executives and investors, including Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood and Anchorage Digital CEO Nathan McCauley. Boxer Mike Tyson was also in attendance.

Beyond crypto, Trump touched on foreign policy issues including Iran, Venezuela and NATO, which he described as a “paper tiger” that is “never there for us.”

As for the digital asset industry, Trump stuck to his usual script: “We are the leader in crypto. It’s become mainstream,” he said.

The conference comes as Trump continues to back crypto ventures tied to his name, drawing both industry support and political scrutiny. His close personal connections to digital assets businesses has been among the other sticking points on passing the Clarity Act, as Democratic negotiators have insisted that senior government officials, including the president, be banned from profiting off of the industry.

A previous event he appeared at for his memecoin investors last year touched off protests and Democratic criticism that his policy aims benefit his own business interests in an example of government corruption that needs to cease. He was also criticized for meeting privately with unnamed foreign business figures who’d effectively paid for their attendance.

Crypto is built for AI agents, not humans, according to Alchemy’s CEO

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The modern financial system was never designed for machines. It was built around the constraints of human life: geography, sleep cycles, paperwork, and physical presence. But as AI agents begin to act as economic participants, that human-centric design is starting to look less like a feature, and more like a bottleneck, said the co-founder of crypto firm Alchemy.

“You can argue that crypto was built for AI agents, not humans,” said Alchemy CEO and co-founder Nikil Viswanathan.

The mismatch is everywhere. Banks have operating hours because humans do. Payments are tied to countries because people live in them. Credit cards assume physical identity and presence, he said.

AI agents operate differently. They don’t sleep. They don’t live anywhere. They don’t walk into banks or carry cards. And increasingly, they don’t just assist with tasks, they transact.

“All transactions for agents are online. They’re inherently global,” Viswanathan, who will be speaking at Consensus Miami next month, told CoinDesk in an interview.

That’s where crypto starts to look less like an alternative financial system and more like the native infrastructure for a new kind of economic actor, he said.

Alchemy is a crypto infrastructure company that provides the underlying tools and services developers need to build blockchain-based applications. It offers APIs, node infrastructure, and data services that power everything from financial apps to non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and games, enabling companies to build and scale onchain products without managing the complexity of blockchain systems themselves.

Built for the wrong user

Traditional finance assumes friction. Paying someone in another country involves currency exchanges, intermediaries, delays and fees. For humans, that’s normal. But for AI agents, it’s unusable.

Agents need to transact seamlessly across borders, at any time, often in tiny increments. They need programmability, direct control over money via code, and systems that don’t depend on physical infrastructure or identity.

Crypto offers exactly that: a global, always-on financial layer where value moves as easily as data, he said.

“Crypto is the global infrastructure for money that agents need,” Viswanathan said.

Complexity flips

What has long made crypto difficult for humans, including seed phrases, private keys and interacting directly with code, is exactly what makes it powerful for machines, Viswanathan said.

Unlike humans, agents operate natively in code.

“Agents read in zeros and ones. That’s their native language,” he said. “That’s also the language of crypto.”

For years, crypto has tried to abstract itself into something more human-friendly. But its underlying architecture was never really built for humans in the first place.

Viswanathan compared the shift from crypto tools being built primarily for humans to crypto tools being used by AI agents to an earlier epochal shift from the postal system to the internet. While people once had to physically write out a letter, buy a stamp and mail it to share messages across the globe, communication in the modern era is much faster.

“Email is far more powerful than the postal system because it’s designed for computers,” Viswanathan said. “Crypto is similar.”

Agent-run financial system

Viswanathan said that moving forward, AI agents will sit on top of crypto infrastructure, handling complexity automatically, managing wallets, executing transactions and optimizing flows of capital in real time, letting people control their own funds more easily.

“You can write code to manage a crypto wallet,” Viswanathan said. “You can’t write code to manage a bank account in the same way.”

The result would be a financial system that is more global, more programmable, and more autonomous.

Viswanathan said he sees a layered future: traditional finance and crypto as the base, an agent layer operating on top and a human interface above that.

“Just like computers operate the internet and humans use it, agents will operate finance,” he said.

Read more: Sam Altman’s World project launches major upgrade to fight deepfakes and bots

Ethereum Foundation Sells 10,000 ETH To BitMine In $24M OTC Deal

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Barely a month after its first transaction with BitMine, the Ethereum Foundation has announced another sale of significant amounts of Ether tokens to the digital asset treasury (DAT) company.

BitMine Picks Up Additional 10,000 ETH From Ethereum Foundation

In an April 24th post on the X platform, the Ethereum Foundation disclosed that it has “finalized the terms” of a 10,000 ETH sale, with BitMine as the counterparty in an over-the-counter (OTC) deal. This OTC transaction was reportedly completed at an average cost of $2,387 (equivalent to nearly $24 million in value).

This latest transaction comes a month and 10 days after the Ethereum Foundation sold 5,000 ETH (worth roughly $10.21 million at the time) to the Chairman Tom Lee-led digital asset treasury firm. Similar to the previous sale, proceeds from this transaction will fund the EF’s core operations & activities, including protocol R&D, ecosystem development, community grant funding, and more.

As disclosed in the last transaction, this sale is part of the ongoing treasury management activity and policy, within which the Ethereum Foundation disclosed that Ether will be sold to maintain its fiat-denominated assets from the Opex (operating expense) Buffer target. It is worth noting that these token sell-offs have not been well received by the crypto community, with many believing the foundation could earn income from staking rather than outright sales.

Interestingly, the Ethereum Foundation has also been staking a portion of its ETH holdings over the past few months, making this latest transaction all the more surprising. Earlier in the month, the EF closed in on its 70,000 ETH staking goal after sending 45,000 Ether tokens to the Beacon Deposit Contract.

However, the fact that the counterparty in this 10,000-ETH transaction is BitMine should bring some degree of calm to the crowd. With the largest Ethereum corporate holder always looking to expand its stockpile, the market can be relatively confident that the recently acquired tokens are unlikely to enter the open market.

The digital asset treasury firm revealed earlier in the week that it purchased 101,627 tokens between April 13 and April 19. The Tom Lee-chaired company now holds 4,976,485 ETH, about 4.12% of the cryptocurrency’s supply.

What’s interesting is that BitMine is believed to have a target of holding about 5% of the second-largest cryptocurrency’s total supply. With the target still a few percentage points away, the firm’s acquisition spree seems likely to not let up any time soon.

Ethereum Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of ETH is around $2,316, down 0.6% over the past 24 hours. According to CoinGecko data, the altcoin has declined by roughly 5% over the last 7 days.

Ethereum

The price of ETH on the daily timeframe | Source: ETHUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin (BTC) falls after Trump reportedly canceled Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s Iran-talks trip

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Bitcoin edged lower late morning on the U.S. East Coast after U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments signaled a halt to planned diplomatic travel tied to Iran talks.

The largest cryptocurrency dropped about $100 to $77,351 just before noon ET, reversing a modest earlier gain. The move came minutes after a Fox reporter posted Trump’s remarks on X, where he said he had canceled a trip by envoys Steve Witkoff and Trump’s stepson, Jared Kushner.

“I’ve told my people a little while ago they were getting ready to leave, and I said, ‘Nope, you’re not making an 18 hour flight to go there. We have all the cards. They can call us anytime they want, but you’re not going to be making any more 18 hour flights to sit around talking about nothing’,” Trump said, according to the post.

Witkoff and Kushner had been expected to travel to Pakistan for a new round of talks involving Iran. The shift came only hours after Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, left Pakistan, a detail that had fueled disappointment over expectations for near-term discussions.

However, the decline in BTC was limited, suggesting markets viewed the development as a short-term risk signal rather than a shift in the broader outlook.

Market participants will likely watch for follow-up statements from U.S. officials and any response from Iran. Trump is expected to speak at a crypto conference in Palm Beach around noon Eastern time.

Anthropic’s new Mythos AI is exposing the hidden cracks in crypto’s foundation

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Mythos, the new AI model from Anthropic that has sparked fear and confusion in traditional tech and finance, is also driving a massive shift in how the crypto industry thinks about security.

For years, decentralized finance has focused its defenses on smart contracts. Code is audited, vulnerabilities are cataloged, and many common exploits are well understood. But Mythos, a model designed to identify and chain together weaknesses across systems, is pushing attention beyond code and into the infrastructure that supports it.

“The bigger risks sit in infrastructure,” said Paul Vijender, head of security at Gauntlet, a risk management firm. “When I think about AI-driven threats, I’m less concerned about smart contract exploits and more focused on AI-assisted attacks against the human and infrastructure layers.”

That includes key management systems, signing services, bridges, oracle networks, and the cryptographic layers that connect them. These components are less visible than smart contracts and are often outside traditional audit scope.

In fact, this month, web infrastructure provider Vercel, which many crypto companies use, disclosed a security breach that may have exposed customer API keys, prompting crypto projects to rotate credentials and review their code. Vercel traced the intrusion to a compromised Google Workspace connection via the third-party AI tool Context.ai, which an employee used.

Mythos belongs to a new class of AI systems built to simulate adversaries. Instead of scanning for known bugs, it explores how protocols interact, testing how small weaknesses can be combined into real-world exploits. That approach has drawn attention beyond crypto. Banks like JP Morgan are increasingly treating AI-driven cyber risk as systemic and are exploring tools like Mythos for stress testing. Earlier this month, Coinbase and Binance both reportedly approached Anthropic to test Mythos.

Early findings from models like Mythos have identified weaknesses in the behind-the-scenes systems that keep crypto platforms secure, including the technology that protects keys and handles communication between systems.

“I think there are two areas where AI models are especially valuable,” Vijender said. “First, multi-step exploit chains that historically only get discovered after money is lost. Second, infrastructure-layer vulnerabilities that traditional audits never touch.”

That shift matters in a system built on composability, where DeFi protocols can connect and build on each other’s services.

DeFi protocols are designed to interconnect. They share liquidity, rely on common oracles, and interact through layers of integrations that are difficult to map in full. That interconnectedness has driven growth, but it also creates pathways for risk to spread, as seen in recent bridge exploits like the Hyperbridge attack, in which an attacker minted $1 billion worth of bridged Polkadot tokens on Ethereum by exploiting a flaw in how cross-chain messages were verified.

“Composability is what makes DeFi capital efficient and innovative,” Vijender said. “But it also means a minor vulnerability in one protocol can become a critical exploit vector with contagion potential across the ecosystem.”

Without AI, those dependencies are hard to trace. With AI, they can be mapped and exploited at scale. The result is a shift from isolated exploits to systemic failures that cascade across protocols.

Evolution of AI attacks

Still, some industry leaders see Mythos as an acceleration rather than a turning point.

At Aave Labs, founder Stani Kulechov said AI reflects the dynamics already at play in DeFi’s adversarial environment.

“Web3 is no stranger to well-funded and motivated adversaries,” he told CoinDesk. “AI models represent an evolution in the tools used to achieve exploits.”

From that perspective, DeFi is already built for machine-speed attacks. Smart contracts execute automatically, and defenses such as liquidation mechanisms and risk parameters operate without human intervention.

“DeFi operates at compute speed, so AI doesn’t introduce a new dynamic,” Kulechov said. “It intensifies an environment that has always required constant vigilance.”

Even so, Aave is seeing AI surface new categories of vulnerabilities, including issues that human auditors may have previously deprioritized.

“The Mythos paper shows that AI can uncover old bugs that were previously deprioritized,” he said.

That breadth still matters in a system where even smaller vulnerabilities can undermine trust or be combined into larger exploits.

If attackers can move faster, the question becomes whether defenses can keep pace.

For both Gauntlet and Aave, the answer lies in changing the security model itself. Audits before deployment and monitoring after were designed for human-paced threats. AI compresses that timeline.

“To defend against offensive AI, we will need to take an AI-centric approach where speed and continuous adaptation are essential,” Vijender of Gauntlet said. That includes continuous auditing, real-time simulation, and systems built with the assumption that breaches will happen.

A ‘greater way’

Aave has already integrated AI into its workflows, using it for simulations and code review alongside human auditors. “We take an AI-first approach where it adds clear value,” Kulechov of Aave Labs said. “But it complements, rather than replaces, human-led auditing.”

In that sense, AI equips both attackers and defenders.

For builders, the long-term effect may be less disruption than divergence.

“We haven’t tested Mythos yet, but we’re genuinely interested in what it and tools like it can do for protocol security,” said Hayden Adams, founder and CEO of Uniswap Labs. “AI gives builders better ways to stress test and harden systems.”

Over time, Adams expects the gap between secure and insecure protocols to widen.

“Projects that prioritize security will have greater ability to test and harden systems before launching,” he said. “Projects that don’t will be most at risk.”

That may be the real shift. Security is no longer about eliminating vulnerabilities. It is about continuously adapting to a system in which those vulnerabilities are constantly rediscovered and recombined.

Read more: Move over bitcoin and quantum risks. Anthropic’s Mythos AI could have major implications for DeFi

CFTC Sues New York Over bid to Apply Gambling Laws to Prediction Markets

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed a lawsuit against New York to stop the state from applying its gambling laws to federally regulated prediction market platforms, escalating a growing clash over who has authority to oversee these products.

In a complaint lodged in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, the CFTC argued that federal law gives it exclusive authority over these markets, asking the court for a declaratory judgment and a permanent injunction against New York’s enforcement actions.

“CFTC-registered exchanges have faced an onslaught of state lawsuits seeking to limit Americans’ access to event contracts and undermine the CFTC’s sole regulatory jurisdiction over prediction markets,” CFTC Chair Michael Selig said.

Earlier this week, New York filed suits against Coinbase and Gemini, claiming their offerings violated state gambling rules. The state had also previously targeted Kalshi, ordering it to halt parts of its sports-related contracts.

Related: Kalshi, Polymarket among 27 prediction platforms banned in Brazil

States say federal law doesn’t legalize sports betting

On Friday, a coalition of 37 states and Washington, D.C. filed an amicus brief supporting Massachusetts in its case against Kalshi, urging Massachusetts’ highest court to reject Kalshi’s argument that federal law allows it to offer sports betting nationwide without following state rules.

Kalshi argues its betting products are “swaps” regulated by a federal agency under a 2010 financial law. The states say that law was never meant to legalize or control sports betting and does not clearly override state authority, which has historically governed gambling.

37 states back Massachusetts in amicus brief. Source: New York Gov

37 states back Massachusetts in amicus brief. Source: New York Gov

The states also argue that removing state oversight would weaken protections. State laws currently handle licensing, age limits, fraud prevention, and gambling addiction, which are areas not covered by federal financial regulation.

Related: US appeals court upholds preventing New Jersey enforcement against Kalshi

States ramp up crackdown on prediction markets

State officials have taken a more aggressive stance against prediction markets in recent months, issuing cease-and-desist letters and pursuing legal action against firms offering prediction contracts.

States like Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois are seeking to enforce gambling laws against prediction platforms. Earlier this month, a Nevada judge extended a ban preventing Kalshi from offering event-based contracts in the state, siding with regulators who argue the products amount to unlicensed gambling.

Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi

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Bitcoin’s $40k bear case would be a historic outlier, data suggests

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Bitcoin’s recent gains — it’s added almost 15% this month — aren’t enough to convince some industry observers that the largest cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market it entered in October. It is, after all, still 40% below its record.

There may be deeper drops to come, with some, unidentified, forecasters, predicting a drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% drop from its all-time high. The figure comes from bitcoin analyst James Check, who says such a move is unlikely. While not impossible, he said in a post on X, it would be statistically extraordinary.

“Just to make a point, for the bears who want to see $40k.

You may well end up right. However, consider that on a mean reversion basis, averaging relative to nine anchors (a mix of technical, onchain, trend, fast, slow etc), it is a Q 0.4 event.

Lower than $2 Bitcoin in 2011.”

After climbing over $126,000 in October, bitcoin slid more than 50% to around $60,000 in February before stabilizing. It was trading Friday near $78,000.

Talking to the bears, Check said their predictions warrant closer scrutiny.

Check points to the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, a composite model that averages multiple key valuation metrics, including the 200-week moving average, realized price, power law trend and a number of volume-weighted average price measures. The index ranks bitcoin’s price on a historical percentile basis.

When modeled at $40,000, bitcoin registers as a “0.4 event,” meaning it would fall in the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes.

“That’s below any meaningful deviation across all major anchors,” Check said.

For context, Check says that would be equivalent to bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis. By contrast, today’s price sits around the 31.5th percentile, historically weak but within normal correction ranges.

“There’s no zero probability in markets,” Check added, “but this would be a near-unprecedented outcome.”