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Bitcoin Price Flips Volatile on Iran Events as $80,000 Battle Heats Up

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Bitcoin (BTC) saw volatility at Monday’s Wall Street open as fresh US-Iran war events sparked instability.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin wobbles around the $80,000 mark as Iran tensions steer risk-asset markets.
  • The overhead CME futures gap becomes the new target for traders wanting proof of BTC price strength.
  • Short-term holders approach breakeven on their unrealized losses.

Iran injects fresh BTC price volatility with $80,000 at stake

Data from TradingView showed whipsaw BTC price action as $80,000 became a central focus for both bulls and bears.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

News that Iran had struck a petroleum facility in the United Arab Emirates sent oil prices surging on the day, with US stocks under pressure.

WTI crude added over 5% to return past $105 per barrel, while Brent hit $119 per barrel — within striking distance of its highest levels in nearly three years.

CFDs on Brent crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Earlier, trading company QCP Capital described the Iran situation as “fluid.”

“For now, markets appear to be pricing in de-escalation. That calculus could change quickly,” it wrote in its latest Market Color analysis.

For Bitcoin itself, QCP argued that the semi-filled gap in CME Group’s futures market formed the key resistance hurdle for buyers to overcome.

“Opened up with a new small CME gap. It is also well on its way to close the previous large gap from $84K,” trader Daan Crypto Trades continued on the topic in a post on X. 

“Good to mark these levels on your chart as they could act as a ‘magnet’ and local reversal zones if price trades close/into them.”

CME Bitcoin futures 15-minute chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Bitcoin speculators almost wipe out unrealized losses

Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant added another important level in the form of the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin’s short-term holders, or speculative investors holding for up to six months.

Related: BTC price can ‘easily’ hit $95K: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

“The more probable scenario is a cautious recovery attempt toward STH realized price,” contributor Crazzyblockk wrote in a QuickTake blog post. 

“A confirmed daily close above $81,500 flips that level from resistance to support, opening the path toward $87–92K. Failure sends price back to test new money realized price near $76,500.”

Bitcoin aggregate cost basis (realized price) by UTXO age (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Crazzyblockk added that Bitcoin’s long-term holders were “unbothered” about their average 27% unrealized losses.

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

Bitcoin (BTC) used to hate inflation. Now it might be the opposite

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Bitcoin continues to rally, defying the typical inflation playbook. It’s raising the question of whether the cryptocurrency has quietly crossed over from risk asset to inflation hedge.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value has risen 19% in just over a month, topping $80,000 on Monday for the first time since January. The rally comes as oil hovers above $100 and Bloomberg’s commodity futures index has jumped to a decade high, pointing to inflation in the pipeline. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer inflation expectations are surging.

In the standard playbook, this combination is considered bearish for bitcoin. Rising inflation means the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates higher for longer, while higher rates mean attractive returns on supposedly safe assets such as U.S. Treasury notes and less incentive to invest in yield-less assets like bitcoin. This logic has worked several times before, most notably in 2022, when the Fed hiked rates aggressively to tame inflation, which partially catalyzed that year’s bitcoin crash.

This time is different

But this time, bitcoin is not following that script. Some analysts are acknowledging the disconnect plainly, raising questions about the durability of the rally. Others say something more fundamental is happening.

“Macro signals remain divided, with commodities pricing supply-side stress while risk assets continue to trade higher. This divergence highlights a growing disconnect across asset classes and raises questions about the durability of the current risk-on environment,” analysts at prominent and long-running exchange Bitfinex said in a report shared with CoinDesk.

Inflation hedge

A different interpretation is gaining traction, suggesting a shift in how BTC is used: from a risk asset to an inflation hedge. And this interpretation is not just circumstantial but backed by renewed inflows into the spot ETFs.

Since March, the 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have raised $4.45 billion in investor capital, nearly reversing the massive outflows during the autumn that weighed on the spot price at the time. Most of these inflows are seemingly bullish directional bets rather than the once-popular non-directional arbitrage play, which has not fallen out of investor favor.

“The more interesting shift is happening on the institutional side. Continued inflows into bitcoin ETFs point to a broader change in how hedging is approached. Gold is no longer the default — digital assets are increasingly being considered alongside it, not after it,” Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said in an email.

Paul Howard, senior director at crypto liquidity provider Wincent, also sees bitcoin as an inflation hedge and has a price target for it. “As both an inflation hedge and a highly liquid store of value, bitcoin possesses several characteristics that could support a 3.5 times increase in price over the next three years,” he said in an email.

The view that BTC is an inflation hedge is no longer confined to crypto circles.

Last week, Paul Tudor Jones, one of the most respected macro traders alive, the man who correctly called and traded the 1987 stock market crash, came out with the most direct endorsement of the bitcoin inflation hedge thesis heard from a Wall Street heavyweight.

“Bitcoin is, unequivocally, the best inflation hedge there is,” Jones said in an interview on the Invest Like the Best podcast. “More than gold.”

His reasoning is structural. Unlike gold, whose supply increases by a couple of per cent each year, bitcoin has a finite supply that can be mined. In a world where central banks have demonstrated a clear willingness to boost the money supply, own the thing they cannot print more of.

Don’t forget stocks

Here is the honest caveat that the bullish inflation hedge narrative needs to reckon with.

Right now, U.S. equities are on a tear, and that is offering positive cues to bitcoin and the broader risk complex, as we noted Monday. In this environment, it is therefore genuinely difficult to draw a definitive conclusion that BTC has evolved into an inflation hedge and that the hedging bid, rather than the risk-on bid, is driving BTC higher.

“After a solid April, BTC has begun May on firm footing, breaking above $80k for the first time since January 31. The move appears aligned with equities, reinforcing a broader trend as BTC’s correlation with US stocks climbing back toward 2023 levels, signaling a renewed linkage with risk assets broadly,” Singapore-based digital assets trading firm QCP Capital said in a market note.

The real test of the inflation hedge narrative comes if and when equities turn lower. If bitcoin holds or rises during an equity sell-off, the narrative gets confirmed. But if it falls alongside equities, the risk asset label will stick.

That test has not arrived yet. Until then, the inflation thesis remains compelling.

XRP-linked Ripple opens North Korean threat intelligence to crypto firms

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Ripple is now sharing its internal threat intelligence on North Korean hackers with the crypto industry, the company said Monday, in a move that reframes how the sector is responding to a shift in DPRK attack methodology.

The Drift hack was not a hack in the way most people think of one.

Nobody found a bug or exploited a smart contract. North Korean operatives spent months befriending Drift’s contributors, slipped malware onto their machines, and walked off with the keys. By the time the $285 million moved, every system that was supposed to catch a hack had nothing to flag.

That is the version of events Ripple and Crypto ISAC, the crypto industry’s threat-sharing group, laid out Monday alongside news that Ripple is now sharing its internal data on North Korean threat actors with the rest of the sector.

The 2022-24 wave of more DeFi hacks was centred on exploiting code, with attackers finding smart contract vulnerabilities and draining protocols in minutes.

But as security gets tighter, the modus operandi shifts from technology to people. Rogue operatives apply for jobs at crypto firms, pass background checks, show up on Zoom calls and build trust for months. Then they deploy attacks that no traditional security tool was built to catch, because the attacker is already inside.

Ripple is now feeding Crypto ISAC the kind of profile data that makes that pattern legible across companies. LinkedIn profiles, email addresses, locations, contact numbers — or the connective tissue that lets a security team recognise the candidate they just interviewed as the same operative who failed background checks at three other firms last week.

“The strongest security posture in crypto is a shared one,” Ripple posted on X. “A threat actor who fails a background check at one company will apply to three more that same week. Without shared intelligence, every company starts from zero.”

Lazarus Group’s reach across the crypto sector is now visible enough that it has begun reshaping legal proceedings as well as security ones.

On Monday, an attorney representing victims of North Korean terrorism served restraining notices on Arbitrum DAO, arguing that the 30,765 ETH frozen after April’s Kelp bridge exploit is North Korean property under U.S. enforcement law.

Lending company Aave has since disputed that filing in support of Arbitrum, arguing that a “thief does not gain lawful ownership of stolen property simply by taking it.”

The Kelp breach had drained $292 million in ether (ETH) and was also publicly attributed to Lazarus Group operatives, putting April’s Drift and Kelp losses together at more than half a billion dollars tied to a single state actor in the span of a single month.

Whether industry-level intelligence sharing actually slows the campaigns is the open question. The same operatives may already be in the next round of interviews somewhere.

Electronic Arts and Visa team up to launch a global, multi-year partnership with EA SPORTS

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Delivering immersive in-game rewards and expanding how players play, connect, and compete

Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: EA), a global leader in interactive entertainment, today announced a landmark, multi-year collaboration with Visa (NYSE: V), the world’s leader in digital payments, to deliver the next generation of immersive, player-first experiences across EA SPORTS™ franchises.

Visa is partnering with EA SPORTS franchises EA SPORTS FC™ and EA SPORTS™ College Football, offering in-game rewards and experiences for EA SPORTS’ global community of fans. By combining EA’s interactive, participatory platforms with Visa’s expansive global brand, this partnership demonstrates how the line between sports fandom and video games continues to blur as audiences increasingly play, watch, and connect across both physical and virtual sports.

“We’re thrilled to be partnering with Visa for one of Electronic Arts’ most expansive brand partnerships to date, bringing more value to fans,” said David Tinson, Chief Experiences Officer at Electronic Arts. “At EA, we bring together a global community of hundreds of millions of fans through interactive play and fandom. That gives us a unique platform to connect sports, players, and culture in meaningful ways. Together with Visa, we’re building for the long term to create more connected, rewarding experiences for fans across some of the biggest moments in sports.”

The partnership will introduce immersive experiences that feel organic, premium and contextually relevant, leveraging dynamic technology designed to enhance gameplay without disrupting the experience. EA SPORTS will create tailored content as part of the partnership to drive meaningful and measurable value for partners and players alike.

“Interactive entertainment has become the new stadium for sports fans around the world, and our partnership with Electronic Arts and EA SPORTS puts Visa at the heart of that experience,” said Frank Cooper, Global Chief Marketing Officer at Visa. “Together, we’re creating meaningful ways for fans to engage with the sports they love, blending digital gameplay and real-world moments while making it more rewarding to play, engage, and connect through Visa and our many partners.”

Key highlights will include:

  • Player-First In-Game Experiences:
    • Within EA SPORTS FC, players can participate in limited-time challenges and live moments that grant in-game rewards as they play and compete.
    • In EA SPORTS College Football, players can unlock in-game name, image, likeness (NIL) sponsorship opportunities within the game’s career mode, Road to Glory, reflecting how real college athletes partner with brands. As players accept branded deals, they receive boosts to their stats and attributes, mirroring real-world sponsorship opportunities for athletes.
  • Rewards That Extend Play and Community: Players around the world can earn in-game rewards and participate in a branded Visa Objective in EA SPORTS FC 26, including Squad Building Challenges and a branded Visa Live Game Mode. In EA SPORTS College Football, players can participate in Visa-themed College Ultimate Team (CUT) challenges, featuring curated objectives, lineup-building moments, and limited-time events, to earn in-game rewards and engage more deeply with the Ultimate Team experience.
  • Celebrating the Biggest Moments in Sports and Culture: The partnership comes to life at marquee sports moments like the Visa Infinite lounge experience at the EA SPORTS Presents Madden Bowl event during Super Bowl LX week, elevating the fan experience with immersive, premium moments that blend competition, entertainment, and culture, while celebrating the energy and passion of the player fandom.

Bitcoin crosses $81,000, ETH, SOL, DOGE to move higher

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Bitcoin just gave the options desks the breakout they were positioning for.

The largest crypto crossed $81,000 in Asian hours Tuesday, its highest level since late January, up from $79,000 at the end of U.S. trading hours on Monday and 5.3% higher on the week.

Other majors traded mixed. Ether held $2,379, off 0.1% on the day but up 4.0% on the week. XRP slipped 0.9% to $1.40. Solana dropped 0.9% to $84.84. BNB sat at $626. Dogecoin gave back 1.0% to $0.1117 after last week’s run, though it remains the standout on the seven-day tape at 12.4% as futures open interest continues to sit at year-highs.

The move came despite Brent crude paring just to $113 a barrel after surging 5.8% Monday on Iran’s disputed missile claim, with WTI near $104.

The macro picture has not actually improved, even as developments in the ongoing U.S.-Iran seem to be losing their grip on bitcoin.

U.S. destroyers Truxtun and Mason transited the Strait of Hormuz overnight, escorting two U.S.-flagged vessels through under what U.S. Central Command described as “coordinated threats.” A VTTI oil terminal in Fujairah was struck in an aerial attack. President Donald Trump told Salem News Channel the war may last another two to three weeks, meaning a previously announced four-week ceasefire is fraying.

Options markets are showing a flurry of action with bets on higher prices in the days ahead, Nomura’s market making arm Laser Digital flagged in a note shared with CoinDesk on Tuesday.

Bitcoin volatility has been quiet for most of the past week. Traders were not buying much in the way of options protection, and the price was not moving fast enough to justify it. When desks did pay for protection, they paid more for puts (bets on the price falling) than calls (bets on it rising) – the standard playbook in a market that is more worried about a drop than excited about a rally.

But underneath that, there has been quiet demand for cheap upside bets, structured through what traders call call ratio strategies. The trade involves buying call options that pay off if bitcoin rallies a little, and financing those by selling other call options that only pay off if bitcoin rallies a lot. The setup costs almost nothing upfront and benefits if bitcoin grinds higher without ripping past the upper level.

“Should the spot price experience a decisive breakout above $80K, the currently negative BTC risk reversal is expected to move into positive territory,” the note said.

A risk reversal is the difference in implied volatility between equally out-of-the-money calls and puts. When it sits negative, the market is pricing more fear of a drop than greed for a rally.

A flip to positive would be the first signal that options markets have actually shifted from cautious to constructive.

All major central banks held rates last week, which Laser Digital said reduces the right-tail distribution of rates and keeps U.S. financial conditions in their current range. Strategy reports earnings Tuesday, and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls print drops Friday. Both can move bitcoin if the surprise is large enough.

XRP slips below $1.40 on heavy volume, tightening range puts breakout in focus

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XRP slipped back under $1.40 after a high-volume break earlier in the session, but the lack of follow-through lower keeps price pinned in a tightening range where moves tend to build pressure rather than resolve it immediately.

News Background

• Broader crypto sentiment remained mixed, leaving XRP trading largely on technical structure rather than fresh catalysts.

• The market continues to rotate around key psychological levels, with $1.40 acting as a near-term pivot for positioning.

Price Action Summary

• XRP fell from $1.4109 to $1.3987, breaking below $1.40 on a 103M volume spike.
• Selling pushed price to $1.3865 before stabilizing into a narrow $1.3925–$1.4015 range.
• A late-hour push briefly reclaimed $1.40, but price failed to hold above the level into the close.

Technical Analysis

• The $1.40 level flipped from support to resistance after the breakdown, shifting short-term positioning.
• Volume was concentrated on the move lower, but faded during consolidation, suggesting selling pressure eased.
• Price is now compressing between $1.38 support and $1.41 resistance, with neither side in control.
• Momentum reset sharply during the recent drop, leaving room for expansion once direction resolves.

What traders should watch

• $1.40 remains the pivot. Reclaiming it shifts short-term bias back to upside.
• $1.41–$1.42 is the next resistance zone that needs to break for continuation.
• $1.38 is the floor. Losing it opens a move toward $1.34 and potentially $1.30.

Paystand Launches USDb: A Bitcoin-Aligned Stablecoin for the $100trillion B2B Economy

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Paystand has officially unveiled USDb, a new stablecoin purpose-built for enterprise financial operations, during the Bitcoin Las Vegas event.

Jeremy Almond, CEO of Paystand

Unlike existing stablecoins—which currently dominate 90 per cent of the market and primarily target crypto trading or retail transfers—USDb is engineered as a commercial-grade settlement layer for the $100trillion B2B economy. Backed 1:1 by USD reserves, the stablecoin is designed to deliver price stability while unlocking the efficiency of blockchain-based payments directly within the workflows managed by Chief Financial Officers.

According to Artemis Analytics, stablecoin transaction volumes soared to $33 trillion in 2025, representing a 72 per cent year-over-year increase. Despite the market exceeding $300 billion in circulation, enterprise adoption is only just beginning, a gap that Paystand intends to close with USDb.

Jeremy Almond, CEO of Paystand, highlighted the convergence of major technological trends driving the launch.

“AI is eating labor. Bitcoin is eating capital. Stablecoins are eating financial services. USDb is where those three forces converge, and we’re launching it with the largest real-world business use case on the planet,” Almond stated. “USDb gives businesses a programmable digital dollar that works where they actually work. This isn’t infrastructure waiting for customers. This is the moment the B2B economy goes on-chain.”

The “Three Bs” of USDb

Paystand has built USDb around three converging forces, referred to as the “Three Bs”:

  • Business: The stablecoin is engineered for commercial-scale operations, including cross-border payroll and treasury management, featuring native mapping to existing ERP ledgers.

  • Bots (Agentic AI): As machine-to-machine transactions become standard, USDb provides a programmable, always-on settlement rail for AI systems taking over financial decision-making.

  • Bitcoin: USDb is natively anchored on Rootstock, extending Bitcoin’s proof-of-work security into programmable enterprise finance.

Infrastructure and day-one utility

To support the launch, Paystand has integrated with leading Bitcoin infrastructure providers. This includes a partnership with Blockstream to support issuance and interoperability across the Liquid Network, and Ibex, which joins as USDb’s first minting partner and liquidity provider. Furthermore, USDb is designed to be compatible with the Lightning Network and Taproot Assets.

Unlike many digital asset projects that launch without an established user base, USDb is plugging directly into Paystand’s existing network, which has already processed over $20 billion in payment volume for more than one million businesses across the Americas.

The stablecoin’s first commercial application is cross-border payments through Bitwage, a blockchain-powered payroll platform that Paystand acquired in November 2025. This integration immediately provides USDb with a live global payment corridor, as Bitwage reaches over 90,000 workers and 4,500 businesses in nearly 200 countries.

USDb is rolling out initially to Paystand’s proprietary network. Over the course of 2026, the company plans to expand the stablecoin’s availability to external partners, additional enterprise customers, and a growing ecosystem of Bitcoin infrastructure providers.

Bitcoin Supply Squeeze? Institutions Absorb 500% Of New BTC

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Data shows institutions are gobbling up Bitcoin supply over five times faster than miners can produce, a sign that has been bullish in the past.

Bitcoin Is Observing A Notable Buying Push From Institutional Entities

In a new post on X, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has talked about the latest institutional buying behavior toward Bitcoin. To capture the combined institutional behavior, Edwards has totaled up the holdings of the treasury companies and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), both of which serve as mediums through which institutions acquire indirect exposure to the cryptocurrency.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the rate of change in the combined institutional holdings of Bitcoin over the last few years:

Bitcoin Institutions

The value of the metric appears to have shot up in recent days | Source: @caprioleio on X

As displayed in the above graph, the ROC of institutions’ Bitcoin holdings has witnessed a spike recently, suggesting a surge in accumulation from big-money investors. In the same chart, the ROC data for treasuries and ETFs is also separately shown. From these curves, it would appear that the uptick in the total institutional buying has been a result of surges in both vehicles.

The rise in the ROC of the institutions has been so strong that it has been many times that of the Bitcoin supply itself. Naturally, the ROC of the BTC supply is just the new number of tokens that miners are introducing into circulation via block rewards. This tends to remain quite stable on the network, which is why the metric has a flat line on the chart.

There is, however, a point in the chart where BTC’s ROC drops down a step. This decline in mined supply corresponded to the last Halving, a type of event where the BTC network slashes its block subsidy exactly in half about every four years. “Institutions are slurping up 500%+ of Bitcoin’s daily mined supply,” noted Edwards. The analyst has highlighted in the graph what happened the last few times that institutional buying hit this level.

It would seem that such a level of accumulation from institutions has tended to lead to positive price action for the cryptocurrency. “The average return in prior cases is +24% over the next 1 month,” explained the analyst. If the same pattern plays out this time as well, then a similar 24% surge would mean a target of around $97,000.

It now remains to be seen whether institutions will keep up their buying in the coming days or if the current uptick is going to be temporary, like the one from March.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $78,700, up 1% over the past week.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Looks like the price of the coin has been moving up in the last few days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

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Western Union launches USDPT on Solana advancing regulated digital infrastructure for global payments

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Western Union (NYSE: WU) today announced the launch of USDPT, its U.S. dollar‑denominated payment stablecoin, marking a major milestone in the company’s evolution toward regulated, digital‑first financial infrastructure.

Fully backed by U.S. dollars and issued by Anchorage Digital Bank N.A., the first federally regulated crypto bank in the United States, and built on Solana, USDPT is designed to operate within real‑world payment systems, combining blockchain‑based settlement with Western Union’s global compliance, risk and distribution capabilities.

“USDPT reinforces Western Union’s role as a global payments platform,” said Devin McGranahan, Western Union’s President and CEO. “By integrating a regulated digital dollar directly into our network, we’re creating a more efficient settlement layer that supports partners, agents and future consumer use cases — all while preserving the trust and scale that define our brand.”

Issued by Anchorage Digital Bank N.A. on federally regulated infrastructure and integrated into Western Union’s payment systems, USDPT serves as an always‑on settlement asset that operates on Solana’s high-performance blockchain that eliminates the latency and fragmentation of traditional correspondent banking rails.

“Stablecoins have always promised faster, more efficient money movement, but scaling them into real payment networks requires more than technology,” notes Nathan McCauley, Co-Founder and CEO, Anchorage Digital. “It requires regulatory alignment and operational rigor. As a federally chartered bank, we provide that foundation, allowing USDPT to function as trusted, always-on financial infrastructure from day one.”

“Bringing stablecoins into production payment flows requires infrastructure that is both institution-grade and continuously available,” said Lily Liu, President, Solana Foundation. “Solana’s high-throughput, low-latency design enables assets like USDPT to move with the speed and reliability required for real-world financial settlement, supporting global payments without interruption.”

Connecting Digital Assets to Real‑World Payments

USDPT is designed to support multiple strategic use cases across Western Union’s ecosystem, reinforcing the company’s long‑standing role as a bridge between global financial systems and local access to financial services for its customers.

Western Union is developing the following services to support USDPT:

  • Global Exchange Support, to make USDPT available for purchase on licensed global virtual currency exchanges.
  • Digital Asset Network, to connect licensed virtual currency exchanges and custodians to Western Union’s global payout and liquidity infrastructure.
  • Stable by Western Union, a consumer-facing spend capability launching in 2026 in 40+ countries.
  • Treasury and Agent Settlement, to enable near‑instant, 24/7 settlement with USDPT between Western Union and its global agents. This will allow Western Union to reduce idle balances and deploy liquidity more dynamically across its network.

Together, these applications will extend USDPT from institutional settlement into practical, real‑world usage, linking digital value with cash‑based and consumer payment experiences.

A Signal for the Future of Payments

The launch of USDPT reflects a broader shift in how global payments are evolving, as established financial institutions adopt regulated digital assets as core infrastructure going forward.

By combining blockchain settlement with one of the world’s most established money movement networks, Western Union is helping shape a future where digital dollars operate at global scale with institutional trust.

BTC tests $80,000 as Asia’s bid fades and Hong Kong AI IPOs surge

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Bitcoin is beginning the Hong Kong trading day under $80,000, according to CoinDesk market data, as the market once again tests a level that has repeatedly capped upside in recent sessions.

Price action remains rangebound just below the $80,700 short-term holder realized price, a key on-chain level now acting as near-term resistance, Glassnode said in this week’s market update.

The issue is not just another rejection near $80,000. Presto Research’s April timezone data shows Asian trading hours consistently dragged on returns, while U.S. and European sessions drove most of the gains.

Hong Kong’s three spot Bitcoin ETFs — ChinaAMC, Bosera Hashkey, Harvest — have gone effectively dormant. Net assets sit at $319.48 million, with daily turnover routinely under $2 million and net creations at zero on most April sessions.

At the same time, capital in the region appears to be rotating elsewhere. Hong Kong’s IPO market raised roughly HK$110 billion in the first quarter, its strongest start in five years, with a heavy concentration in mainland China AI and technology listings. With over 400 IPO applications in the pipeline, the Hong Kong exchange is effectivley full for the year.

For regional investors, those deals offer a competing high-growth narrative that may be drawing dollars for risk assets away from crypto.

The market is testing whether BTC can hold near $80,000 without broader global participation, market maker Enflux wrote in a note to CoinDesk.

“if Asian participation stays absent, any sustained push above $80K requires European and US sessions to keep carrying the load without the overnight liquidity buffer Asia normally provides,” Enflux wrote.

That dependency is becoming more visible in the flow data. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs swung to $783.4 million in net outflows last week, while trading volume fell 13.45%, according to Glassnode. Spot cumulative volume delta, which tracks whether buyers or sellers are initiating trades, dropped 28.6%, pointing to weaker buying pressure.

Together, the data suggest the demand that drove April’s rally is no longer building, leaving bitcoin pressing into resistance without a clear second leg of support. With traders also clustering expectations in the $78,000 to $82,000 range, according to Enflux, the market is treating $80,000 less as a breakout level and more as the top of a band.

Friday’s U.S. payrolls report is the next key catalyst. A strong print could give Western flows enough momentum to push higher again. A miss would leave bitcoin testing support without the global participation that typically underpins sustained rallies.