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Should Politicians Be Able to Use Prediction Markets? House Bill Proposes Ban

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In brief

  • Rep. Torres proposed the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act to keep federal officials off prediction markets.
  • The bill follows controversy over a Polymarket trader winning a bet on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s removal, placed mere hours before his capture.
  • Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is among 30 House members supporting the bill alongside Torres.

Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and 30 of his House of Representatives colleagues, including Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), are making a push to ban government officials from accessing prediction markets.

The lawmakers introduced new legislation, the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, on Friday morning.

The bill would stop lawmakers and their staff from participating in prediction markets. In the context of the bill, that would include all federal elected officials, political appointees, and employees of the House of Representatives, Senate, and other executive agencies.

The bill argues that D.C. insiders should be blocked from participating in markets when they possess “material non-public information” about a market or the ability to influence its outcome.

The term is borrowed from securities law and is used to stop people with insider information about a company from trading securities. Prediction markets and the companies that offer them, like Kalshi and Polymarket, have so far been exclusively regulated by the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission.

Earlier this week, Polymarket faced scrutiny after a trader won more than $400,000 on a bet that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office before the end of the month. Criticism focused on the timing of the bet, which appeared just hours before U.S. special forces apprehended Maduro.

“The most corrupt corner of Washington, D.C. may well be the intersection of prediction markets and the federal government—where insider trading and self-dealing are no longer imagined risks but demonstrated dangers,” said Rep. Torres, in a statement. “We ignore this plain-sight corruption at our own peril.”

Torres, Pelosi, and their House colleagues aren’t the only ones crying foul over what appears to be unfair predictions placed by people with insider knowledge in D.C..

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) included a clip of a recent White House press conference in his own criticism of allowing elected officials access to bet on markets that they can directly influence.

The clip shows the last 30 seconds of a White House press conference, and a timer showing that the event concluded right before it had lasted 1 hour and 5 minutes—which created a huge windfall for predictors who bet against the press conference lasting 65 minutes.

“Who cares about the length of a press conference? What idiot is betting on that?” he wrote on X. “But we should definitely care that there are markets that give incentives to people with power to change outcomes so they or people they know can get rich on a big bet. It’s insane we allow this.”

Loxley Fernandes, the CEO and co-founder of Dastan—which owns prediction protocol Myriad and also an editorially independent Decrypt—argued that participation from insiders is more of a feature than a bug.

“Academically speaking, prediction markets are one of the most effective tools for rooting out inside information and maximizing the efficiency and speed of information transmission,” he said earlier this week.

While he does consider insider trading to be a problem, he does take issue with the comparison between prediction markets and traditional gambling. “To date, we have looked at modern prediction markets as alternative casinos—and I believe this framing is incorrect,” he added.

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Instagram Data From 2024 Leak Reappears, Exposing 17.5M Accounts

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Seventeen and a half million Instagram accounts just got an unwanted encore appearance on the dark web, thanks to an old API flaw that’s back to cause fresh headaches. According to a security notice from cybersecurity firm Malwarebytes, data tied to roughly 17.5 million Instagram users is circulating freely on Breachforums after resurfacing in early […]

Bitcoin Network Mining Difficulty Falls in Jan 2026

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The Bitcoin (BTC) network mining difficulty, the relative computing challenge of adding a new block to the decentralized blockchain ledger, fell slightly to 146.4 trillion on Thursday, in the first difficulty adjustment of 2026. 

“The next Bitcoin difficulty adjustment is estimated to take place on Jan 22, 2026, 04:08:12 AM UTC, increasing the Bitcoin mining difficulty from 146.47 T to 148.20 T,” according to CoinWarz. 

Average block times are 9.88 minutes at the time of this writing, slightly below the 10-minute target, which means the next difficulty adjustment will increase slightly to align better with the target block time.

The Bitcoin network mining difficulty. Source: CryptoQuant

Mining difficulty reached new all-time highs in 2025, with the final adjustment of the year slightly increasing the difficulty level. However, even with the slight increase, difficulty remained well below the all-time high of 155.9 trillion recorded in November.

The rising difficulty means increased competition to mine blocks on the network, presenting more challenges to the mining industry, which suffered from macroeconomic, regulatory, and financial headwinds in 2025.

Related: Bitcoin mining’s 2026 reckoning: AI pivots, margin pressure and a fight to survive

2025 was the “harshest margin environment” on record for Bitcoin miners

Bitcoin miners experienced one of the toughest profitability environments on record, as profit margins eroded due to the April 2024 halving, which slashed the block subsidy by 50% and macroeconomic developments.

The crypto market downturn, which began in November, placed additional pressure on Miners and mining companies.

Miner hash price, a critical metric for miner profitability, which tracks expected revenue per unit of computing power expended to mine blocks, fell below breakeven levels in November 2025.

Mining, Bitcoin Mining
Miner hash price over a 1-year period. Source: Hashrate Index

$40 per petahash-second per day is the level at which miners must decide whether to turn their rigs off or continue mining blocks. In November, this metric dropped below $35 — a multi-year low.

The tariffs enacted by US President Donald Trump also strained Bitcoin miners, creating fears of supply chain shortages.

A sharp crypto market downturn, sparked by a flash crash in October, discounted BTC prices by over 30% in November, when BTC hit a low just north of $80,000.

Although Bitcoin prices have rallied since that time, they are still far below the all-time high of over $125,000 reached in October.

Magazine: Bitcoin mining industry ‘going to be dead in 2 years’: Bit Digital CEO